Tax Mimicking and Yardstick Competition Among Local Governments in the Netherlands

This paper provides a spatial-econometric analysis of the setting of property tax rates by Dutch municipalities. We find evidence of tax mimicking: a ten percent higher property tax rate in neighboring municipalities leads to a 3.5 percent higher tax rate. Mimicking is less pronounced in municipalities governed by coalitions backed by a large majority. This points to yardstick competition as the most likely source of tax mimicking. We also find that Dutch voters seem to be able to penalize incumbents for anticipated tax rate differentials, but not for unanticipated tax rate differentials. This limits the effectiveness of yardstick competition as a mechanism to reduce political rent-seeking.JEL Code: D72, H71     

Local taxes and political influence: evidence from locally dominant firms in German municipalities

We analyze the impact of locally dominant firms—i.e. firms that contribute a sizeable share to municipalities’ revenues—on local business tax rates. We argue that these firms have considerable political power locally even if they are not large in the regional or national perspective. These locally dominant firms can use their political power to voice their concerns directly vis-à-vis the local government—a channel of influence that is hardly available in municipalities with an atomistic structure of tax payers. We hypothesize that municipalities with locally dominant firms will set lower tax rates than municipalities in which tax-payers’ concentration is low. We test the impact of tax-payers’ concentration on local business tax rates using data from 423 municipalities in the German state Hesse between 1998 and 2005. The estimation technique accounts for spatial lags and autoregressive disturbances. Results support our central hypothesis: the higher the tax-payers’ concentration, the lower the municipal business tax rates.     

How to stop the race to the bottom

Standard tax multipliers are a widespread feature of fiscal equalization systems. A simple theoretical model shows that actual tax multipliers respond positively to changes in standard tax multipliers. This theoretical prediction is tested empirically using data on municipalities in Germany. A quasi-experiment in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia is exploited to identify the incentive effect. The empirical results confirm that local business tax policy is shaped by standard tax multipliers. They provide a straightforward practical tool to avoid a race to the bottom in local business tax rates.     

Local property tax differences and business real estate values

This article posits a model of the effect of differences in changes in local property tax rates on changes in the business real estate tax base. It is also hypothesized that changes in the tax base influence changes in the property tax rate. Empirical findings for metropolitan Chicago are that both differences in property tax changes and levels have large effects on the growth of the value of business real estate. Also, changes in the property tax rate are found to depend upon changes in the tax base as well as the property tax level and its previous change.     

Withholding tax rates on dividends: symmetries versus asymmetries or single- versus multi-rated double tax treaties

Out of all double tax treaties (DTTs) in force in 2012, around 41% are symmetric (single-rated) and 59% are asymmetric (multi-rated), i.e., they prescribe different dividend withholding tax rates depending on the foreign investor’s ownership fraction. The paper investigates the reasons for this phenomenon, namely why some countries in their DTTs prefer homogenous withholding tax rates over separate rates for participation and portfolio dividends. In a theoretical model, I demonstrate why home countries may have an interest in a high withholding tax rate in the host country, even though they do not receive the revenue from this tax. Further, I find confirming evidence that a reason for having multi-rated withholding taxes on dividends is an existing spatial dependence on the rates of the countries’ peers that may be a driving factor for setting multi-rated taxes. Finally, I confirm that the spread itself (i.e., the difference between the portfolio and participation dividends negotiated in the tax treaty) is also affected by the peer countries.

     

Revenue functions and Dupuit curves for indirect taxes with cross-border shopping

Norway imposes some of the highest tax rates on alcoholic beverages and tobacco in the world, making, e.g., cross-border shopping an attractive activity for Norwegians. In light of this fact, we pose the question: Could we increase the total tax revenue from indirect taxes by decreasing tax rates on, e.g., spirits in Norway? When using an empirically based consumer model including cross-border shopping, tax-free shopping, and smuggling, we do find revenue curves implying total tax revenue maximizing tax rates. But we also find that these tax rates are always higher than the observed tax rates, i.e., suggesting that the answer to our question is no. In addition, we compare our results to a closed economy setting without cross-border shopping, etc. We find that the existence of cross-border shopping, etc. affects the shape of the revenue curves somewhat, although not dramatically.     

Corporate tax policy and incorporation in the EU

In Europe, declining corporate tax rates have come along with rising tax-to-GDP ratios. This paper explores to what extent income shifting from the personal to the corporate tax base can explain these diverging developments. We exploit a panel of European data on legal form of business to analyze income shifting via incorporation. The results suggest that the effect is significant and large. It implies that the revenue effects of lower corporate tax rates—possibly induced by tax competition—will partly show up in lower personal tax revenues rather than lower corporate tax revenues. Simulations suggest that between 12% and 21% of corporate tax revenue can be attributed to income shifting. Income shifting is found to have raised the corporate tax-to-GDP ratio by some 0.25% points since the early 1990s. This research was carried out while Ruud de Mooij was a visiting fellow at DG ECFIN in October 2006. The views expressed in this Article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the European Commission.     

How well-targeted are payroll tax cuts as a response to COVID-19? evidence from China

Numerous countries cut payroll taxes in response to COVID-19, including China, which reduced employer contributions by up to 21 percentage points. We use administrative data on more than 800,000 Chinese firms to evaluate payroll tax cuts as a business relief measure. We estimate that the tax cuts cover 31.5% of the decline in business cash flow, but labor informality causes 53% of registered firms-24% of aggregate economic activity-to receive no benefits at all. We quantify the targeting of the policy in terms of how much benefits flow to small firms less able to access external finance and to sectors worse hit by COVID-19. We find that (1) small firms and vulnerable industries are comparatively more labor intensive, which leads to desirable targeting; (2) labor informality worsens, but does not eliminate, targeting by firm size; and (3) labor informality is uncorrelated with the COVID-19 shock, and therefore does not affect targeting by sector.

     

Do corporate taxes affect employee welfare? Evidence from workplace safety

We examine the impact of tax policy on worker safety that exploits spatial discontinuity in treatment and control establishments stemming from state-level corporate tax changes. The granularity of our data and econometric approach allows us to exploit within-firm, across-establishment variation in worker safety shedding light on the real effects of headquarter versus plant-level decisions. Plant-level injury rates increase with tax hikes in establishment states, but not with those in headquarter states, highlighting the importance of plant-level decisions. We explore three plausible non-mutually exclusive mechanisms to help explain these findings ─ safety investment, leverage, and labor stress channels. We find that in the presence of a tax hike, firms reduce safety-related investments, and the tax effect on injury rates is exacerbated for firms that increase leverage and for firms where employees work longer hours and seasonal workers are used. Overall, our findings suggest that tax increases lead to negative welfare outcomes for employees, with no similar benefit accruing for tax cuts.     

Does Private Country-by-Country Reporting Deter Tax Avoidance and Income Shifting? Evidence from BEPS Action Item 13

To combat tax avoidance by multinational corporations, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development introduced country-by-country reporting (CbCr), requiring firms to provide tax authorities with a geographic breakdown of their profitability and activities. Treating the introduction of CbCr in the European Union as a shock to private disclosure requirements, this study examines the effect on corporate tax outcomes. Exploiting the €750 million revenue threshold for disclosure and employing regression-discontinuity and difference-in-differences designs, I document a 1–2 percentage point increase in consolidated GAAP effective tax rates among affected firms. I also find evidence consistent with a decline in tax-motivated income shifting, starting in 2018. These results suggest that, although private geographic disclosures can deter corporate tax avoidance, so far, the regulations have had a limited effect on tax-motivated income shifting. My findings have policy implications for the global implementation of private CbCr and extend the debate on public versus private disclosure of tax information.     

Internationalization and business tax revenue—evidence from Germany

The ongoing internationalization of business activity fuels concerns that governments may lose their ability to tax business income. By using data on sixteen German states from 1970 to 2005, we estimate the impact of internationalization, measured by trade volumes and stocks of foreign direct investment, on business tax revenues. We control for the impact of internationalization on business profits. Surprisingly, we find strong and robust evidence for a positive impact of internationalization on tax revenue. An increase in the internationalization indicator of ten percent increases tax revenue by over three percent. This counterintuitive result may be explained by higher tax avoidance activity of purely national firms or by legal provisions in the tax law which can be used as tax loopholes in the case of domestic transactions as opposed to cross-border transactions.     

The assignment and division of the tax base in a system of hierarchical governments

Vertical externalities, changes in one level of government’s policies that affect the budget of another level of government, may lead to non-optimal government policies. These externalities are associated with tax bases that are shared or “co-occupied” by two levels of government. Here I consider whether co-occupancy of tax bases is desirable. I examine the optimal extent of the tax bases of a lower level of government (local) and a higher level (state). I find that it is optimal to have co-occupancy in the absence of other corrective policies if commodities in the tax bases are substitutes. Further, if the state government can differentially tax the co-occupied segment of the tax base and the segment it alone taxes it will obtain the (second-best) outcome obtained with other policy instruments such as intergovernmental grants.     

“营改增”影响地方政府税收努力研究

基于随机前沿分析法（SFA）测算2011-2015年我国地方政府税收努力程度,并运用双重差分法考察“营改增”对地方征税行为的影响。研究发现：“营改增”将地方税（营业税）变为共享税（增值税）,显著降低了地方政府税收努力程度;改革对税收努力的冲击受经济发展水平、转移支付额度和税收返还的影响,获取转移支付收入和税收返还越多的地区税收努力下降速度越快。后“营改增”时期,如何提高税收效率,缓解地方财政收入对转移支付和债务收入的依赖性,是理顺中央和地方财税关系,完善财税收入体系的重要问题。     

Government consumption smoothing in a balanced budget regime

I investigate government consumption smoothing (sensitivity) under a balanced budget rule in Swedish municipalities. In general, I find Swedish municipalities to be highly consumption sensitive. Municipalities consume 87.6 % out of predicted current revenues in the time period leading up to the implementation of the balanced budget rule, and they consume 76.3 % out of predicted current revenue in the time period following the implementation. Fiscally weak municipalities are found to be more consumption sensitive than fiscally strong municipalities. Very weak municipalities have become more consumption sensitive compared with very strong municipalities since the implementation of the balanced budget rule. Thus, I find indicative evidence that both credit market constraints and formal budget rules such as balanced budget rules increase municipal consumption sensitivity.     

Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities

The level of revenues pocketed by a government during the fiscal year often deviates from that projected by this government in its budget. Despite a flourishing literature on, for example, the technical or procedural determinants of such forecast errors, little is yet known about how political stratagems may affect forecast errors. In the present paper, we analyse whether differences in the level of government fragmentation are useful in explaining local government tax revenue forecast errors—controlling for various other factors. Using data on 242 Flemish municipalities for the period 1992–2002, we find that two-party governments are more optimistic than single-party governments. In contrast to our initial expectations, governments with at least three parties are significantly more careful (or less optimistic) in their revenue projections than single- or two-party governments.      

Does Germany Collect Revenue from Taxing the Normal Return to Capital?*

A widespread objection to the introduction of consumption tax systems claims that this would lead to high tax revenue losses. This paper investigates the revenue effects of a consumption tax reform in Germany. Our results suggest that the revenue losses would be surprisingly low. We find a maximum revenue loss of 1.6 per cent of annual GDP. In some years, we even find tax revenue gains. This implies that the current tax system collects little revenue from taxing the normal return to capital. Based on these results, we calculate a macroeconomic measure of the effective tax rate on capital income.     

物业税改革的经济影响:一个文献综述

自从2003年我国提出物业税改革的设想后,物业税改革成为了一个热点话题.分析物业税改革可能带来的经济影响是当前讨论的重点之一.物业税将逐渐成为地方政府的一个稳定的主要收入来源.为地方政府提供长期而稳定的激励,提高地方公共财政的效率;物业税改革在短期内会降低房价,不过幅度不会太大,也不会降低购房者的负担;物业税改革还可以提高土地资源的配置效率,一定程度上缓解由土地批租制度带来的地方政府"寅吃卯粮"的问题.     

Alcohol taxes,tax revenues and the Single European Market

This paper addresses the issue of whether tax revenue from alcohol lost through cross-border shopping could be recouped by cutting excise duties. This in turn depends on the elasticity of demand for alcohol. We use data from the Family Expenditure Survey 1978–96 to estimate own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for beer, wine and spirits before and after completion of the Single Market. We find no evidence of a significant change in elasticities after the Single Market. The tax rates on beer and wine are currently below their revenue-maximising rates, implying that a cut in the duty rate on beer or wine would lead to a decrease in indirect tax revenue from alcohol. We cannot reject that the current tax rate on spirits is at the revenue-maximising rate, implying that further increases in the duty on spirits are likely to cause indirect tax revenue to fall.     

Análisis del comportamiento estadístico y aproximación fractal en la recaudación del impuesto sobre nóminas y asimilados en el estado de Quintana Roo

This paper analyzes the tax collection from payroll tax on staff and non-staff in the state of Quintana Roo from 2000 to 2010. Its main contribution is to identify the statistical revenue behavior using a fractal approach, establishing iterative patterns at both state and municipal level, for the entire analyzed series of 132 months as well as shorter time periods. It serves as a trigger for application in other locations and charges in order to explore some features of taxation. Two statistical criteria were used to determine normal or abnormal series of municipal tax collection during the study period, namely, the Empirical Rule criteria and parameters using Chebyshev’s theorem. As a contrast, the Jarque-Bera test was applied on residuals, concluding that the fiscal revenue from the state of Quintana Roo (municipal data) does not follow a normal distribution, which is why the fractal approach has been used. The results with data for tax collection by municipalities throughout Quintana Roo show the presence of a fractal behavior (repetitive and cyclic) in revenue, which can be interpreted as the presence of a consolidated tax base, thus justifying the conclusion that there is strength (the observed level of collection) in local public finances. The same conclusion is obtained, with different temporal cuts, when analyzing and detecting the presence of specific fractal revenue behavior observed in municipalities of Benito Juarez (Cozumel) and Othon P. Blanco from 2000 to 2010.     

Factors Influencing Interest Rates on Delinquent Property Tax Certificates

This study examines the market for delinquent property tax certificates, a commonly used enforcement mechanism in property tax systems around the United States. We model the value of such certificates using a continuous-time framework and propose a statistical model that allows testing for factors that affect interest rates charged by investors who purchase the certificates as investment instruments. Using sample data from tax certificate sales in Florida from 1982 to 2000, we find that interest rates on certificates are negatively and significantly related to assessed property value and homestead status, and positively related to local ownership. We find an inverse relationship between interest rates and the number of certificates purchased by the certificate investor, indicating a significant clientele effect in this market. We also find that the implied effective tax rate is positively related to the interest rates charged by investors. Overall, the findings provide insight into the function of this unique market niche.