Residential Investment and Business Cycles in an Open Economy: A Generalized Impulse Response Approach

We study the impact of residential and non-residential investment on economic growth using U.S. data. Unlike previous studies we include the external sector (net exports) in our estimations, and we calculate impulse response analysis using Pesaran and Shin’s (Economics Letters 58:17–29, 1998) generalized impulse response approach. We find that shocks to residential investment have a larger impact on GDP than shocks to non-residential investment, which supports the findings of the closed-economy approach of Coulson and Kim (Real Estate Economics 28:233–247, 2000). However, a closed economy model tends to overstate the importance of residential investment and understate the relevance of nonresidential investment.

A Note on Credit Risk of Vertical <Emphasis Type="Italic">Keiretsu</Emphasis> Firms: Preliminary Evidence from the Japanese Automobile Industry

This paper empirically examines the relationship between the credit risk of Toyota, Nissan and Honda keiretsu-affiliated firms and the credit risk of the respective parent company. As credit spread data for keiretsu-affiliated firms were not available we create a keiretsu default index, as a proxy, using expected default probabilities obtained from the KMV and Leland and Toft (J. Finance 51, 987–1019, 1996) option pricing models. We find parent credit spreads do not Granger cause our keiretsu default index and vice versa in a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework.JEL classification: G3, L62     

The Effects of Key Audit Matters on the Auditor’s Report’s Communicative Value: Experimental Evidence from Investment Professionals and Non-professional Investors

Abstract

We investigate the effect of key audit matters (KAM) in the auditor’s report as required by the new ISA 701. We consider investment professionals and non-professional investors in our experiments, in which we test the communicative value of a KAM section relating to goodwill impairment. Our main results show that in the condition in which the KAM section suggests that already small changes in the key assumptions could eventually lead to a goodwill impairment (KAM negative condition), investment professionals assess the economic situation of the company to be significantly better as compared to the condition in which the KAM section suggests that only large changes in the key assumptions could eventually lead to a goodwill impairment (KAM positive condition). In the additional analysis with non-professional investors, we find that a KAM section has no communicative value, implying that non-professional investors have difficulties with processing the information conveyed with KAM.     

The Q Theory and the Swedish Housing Market—An Empirical Test

We argue that major changes in economic policy have resulted in a more market driven demand for housing investment in Sweden, due to policy changes at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s. Tobin’s transparent Q theory is the investment theory used. For the last period of the sample (1993–2003 quarterly data), our results indicate that there exists a high degree of correlation between the Q ratio and the (logarithm of) two different variables for housing investment. An error correction regression model, controlling for structural breaks, also indicates that a stable long-run relationship could be detected for the logarithm of building starts and the Q ratio between 1993–2003, but not between 1981–1992.      

Extremes and Robustness: A Contradiction?

Stochastic models play an important role in the analysis of data in many different fields, including finance and insurance. Many models are estimated by procedures that lose their good statistical properties when the underlying model slightly deviates from the assumed one. Robust statistical methods can improve the data analysis process of the skilled analyst and provide him with useful additional information. For this anniversary issue, we discuss some aspects related to robust estimation in the context of extreme value theory (EVT). Using real data and simulations, we show how robust methods can improve the quality of EVT data analysis by providing information on influential observations, deviating substructures and possible mis-specification of a model while guaranteeing good statistical properties over a whole set of underlying distributions around the assumed one.     

Private benefits of control and firm leverage: An analysis of Korean firms

This paper investigates the leverage choices of an entrenched controlling party. If debt effectively curbs the private benefits of control, the controlling shareholder is given incentives to avoid debt. Using estimates of the private benefits of control and financial statement data from selected Korean firms, we find that a controlling party with large private benefits tends to lower debt. This relationship was concentrated after the Asian financial crisis. However, before the crisis, firms that affiliated with Korean conglomerates, chaebols, used more debt as private benefits increased. A financial reform program triggered by the crisis seems to have actuated the disciplining role of debt. JEL Classification G32, G34     

内部控制质量、信用模式与企业价值——基于深市A股上市公司的实证分析

内部控制和企业价值之间存在着密切的联系,内部控制是否有效及效率高低影响着企业的价值。内部控制质量高的企业有动机通过自愿性信息披露向市场传递企业价值较高的信号,由于信号传递作用,企业更容易获得较低成本的商业信用和银行信用借款,提升了企业价值,而内部控制质量低的企业没有动机进行内部控制信息披露,从而不得不付出较高的债务融资成本,降低了企业价值。     

The monetary model in the presence of I(2) components: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and forecasting of the Greek drachma

This paper re-examines the long-run properties of the monetary exchange rate model using data for the drachma–dollar and drachma–mark exchange rates under the hypothesis that the system contains variables that are I(2). Using the recent I(2) test by Paruolo (On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems. J. Economet. 72 (1996) 313–356) to examine the presence of I(2) and I(1) components in a multivariate context we find that the system contains two I(2) variables in both cases and this finding is reconfirmed by the estimated roots of the companion matrix (Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long-run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model. Juselius, J. Economet. 69 (1995) 211–240). The I(2) component led to the transformation of the estimated model by imposing long-run but not short-run proportionality between domestic and foreign money. Two statistically significant cointegrating vectors were found and, by imposing linear restrictions on each vector as suggested by Johansen and Juselius (Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure: an applicaion to the ISLM model. J. Economet. 63 (1994) 7–36) and Johansen (Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration. J. Economet. 69 (1995b) 111–132), the order and rank conditions for identification are satisfied, but the test for overidentifying restrictions was not significant only for the case of the drachma/mark rate. The main findings suggest that we reject the forward-looking version of the monetary model for the drachma/dollar case but not when the drachma/mark rate is used, a result that is attributed to the monetary and exchange rate policy followed by the Greek authorities since Greece's joining of the European Union. Furthermore, we test for parameter stability using the tests developed by Hansen and Johansen (Recursive estimation in cointegrated VAR-models. Working paper (1993) University of Copenhagen) and it is shown that the dimension of the cointegration rank is sample independent while the estimated coefficients do not exhibit instabilities in recursive estimations. Finally, it is shown that the monetary model outperforms the random walk model in an out-of-sample forecasting contest.     

Ritual legitimation, de-coupling and the budgetary process: managing organizational hypocrisies in a multinational company

The study of participation in the budgetary cycle has formed a prominent part of the research literature concerned with the budgetary process. More recently there has emerged a body of literature concerned with exploring the political and symbolic nature of the budgetary process. The paper reports upon the outcomes of an empirical study of the introduction of `budgetary participation' in a division of a European subsidiary of a large North American car manufacturer. We detail the long process of consultation and negotiation within the subsidiary, and between it and the European Headquarters. The study provides a revealing instance of the roles of formal budget participation as a ritual of control and legitimation without the substantive involvement of middle managers and suggested to us the introduction of de-coupling and organizational hypocrisy alongside the introduction of budget participation. The study pays close attention to the contingent effects of the wider political context of the division and the relationships between the division, its organizational context and organizational environment, and how this context played upon the budgetary process in the division. The outcomes that we analyse at `Delta' reflect the de-coupling strategies and organizational hypocrisies commonly found in public sector organizations. In this wider setting the corporation persists with the ritual of `tight' budget negotiation and target setting and apparent underachievement in performance. Yet we conclude that the complex technological and political context to the formation and siting of Delta continued and may continue to support its existence.$g0