The Information Signaling Hypothesis of Dividends: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests

This paper uses cointegration and causality tests to study the temporal behavior of dividends and earnings at the individual firm level. We find that, for a sample of 143 non‐utility firms, approximately one‐fifth of the firms exhibits a temporal relationship between dividends and earnings that is consistent with the information signaling hypothesis of dividends. In the case of 72 utilities, about a third exhibit dividend policies that are consistent with the signaling notion of dividends. Further examination of firm characteristic differences between signaling and non‐signaling firms shows that, in the case of non‐utility firms, signaling firms tend to be smaller, have a lower growth rate of total assets, and have a higher leverage ratio. In the case of utilities, we find no major differences in firm characteristics between signaling and non‐signaling firms.     

VALUATION EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET STOCK REPURCHASES FOR FINANCIALLY WEAK FIRMS

We test the proposition that announcements of open market stock repurchases improve the flow of positive information regarding the firm's prospects, particularly for financially weak firms. For financially strong firms with already good prospects for cash flows, the role of stock repurchases is less important. We provide evidence for an inverse relationship between financial risk, measured by bond rating, and the magnitude of stock repurchase-induced abnormal returns. Results also suggest that the value of information implied by announcements of open market repurchases about increases in cash flows and leverage, is more important for financially weak firms than for financially strong firms.     

AN INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECT OF QUALIFIED AUDIT OPINIONS ON THE TRADING VOLUME AND BID-ASK SPREAD OF OVER-THE-COUNTER FIRMS

This paper investigates the information content of qualified audit opinions. The announcement of a qualified audit opinion is expected to cause investors' beliefs about the firm to converge. This increase in consensus would be evidenced by an unexpected decrease in trading volume surrounding the initial public announcement. Proportional bid-ask spread changes are used to test for changes in information asymmetry due to the announcement. After controlling for the effects of earnings announcements, a significant trading volume reaction is found in the week of the announcement for a sample of firms traded over the counter. No significant difference in proportional bid-ask spread is found. The results suggest that qualified audit opinions do, indeed, convey information to the investing public and this information results in homogeneous beliefs about the firm.     

The Pricing of Initial Public Offerings: A Dynamic Model with Information Production

This paper presents an information-theoretic model of IPO pricing in which insiders sell stock in both the IPO and the secondary market, have private information about their firm's prospects, and outsiders may engage in costly information production about the firm. High-value firms, knowing they are going to pool with low-value firms, induce outsiders to engage in information production by underpricing, which compensates outsiders for the cost of producing information. The information is reflected in the secondary market price of equity, giving a higher expected stock price for high-value firms.     

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE TIMING OF BOND-REFUNDING DECISIONS

In this paper we measure the ability of firms to time bond-refunding decisions. The timing performance achieved on a sample of 161 public utility bond refundings is compared with the timing performance achieved by three benchmark models. We find that firms achieve levels of timing performance significantly better than the random selection and 100-basis-point benchmark models, but not significantly better than a stopping-time model based on present value analysis.     

THE UNDERPRICING OF “SECOND” INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS

The underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) of equity represents a well-documented empirical phenomenon. One prominent explanation for this underpricing relies on the uncertainty investors feel about the value of the issuer. In this paper, this asymmetric information hypothesis is tested by examining the underpricing of IPOs of seventy-four firms for which the uncertainty about the value of the firm is likely to be substantially reduced. These firms were once publicly owned, then taken private, and subsequently returned to public ownership. Findings show that the IPOs of these “reverse leveraged buyouts” are significantly less underpriced than typical IPOs. These results support the asymmetric information hypothesis.     

INFORMATION CONTENT OF QUALIFIED AUDIT OPINIONS FOR OVER-THE-COUNTER FIRMS

This study investigates the information content of the initial public announce-ment of an audit qualification for a sample of American firms traded over-the-counter. These firms have smaller predisclosure information sets than New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and American Stock Exchange (ASE) firms. The results of research focusing on NYSE and ASE firms cannot, therefore, be extended to the over-the-counter (OTC) market. When the qualification is not confined to a 'bad news' scenario, a significant market reaction to the announcement is found, indicating that audit qualification announcements for OTC firms do, indeed, have information content.     

Political Incentives to Suppress Negative Information: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms

This paper tests the proposition that politicians and their affiliated firms (i.e., firms operating in their province) temporarily suppress negative information in response to political incentives. We examine the stock price behavior of Chinese listed firms around two visible political events—meetings of the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and promotions of high‐level provincial politicians—that are expected to asymmetrically increase the costs of releasing bad news. The costs create an incentive for local politicians and their affiliated firms to temporarily restrict the flow of negative information about the companies. The result will be fewer stock price crashes for the affiliated firms during these event windows, followed by an increase in crashes after the event. Consistent with these predictions, we find that the affiliated firms experience a reduction (an increase) in negative stock return skewness before (after) the event. These effects are strongest in the three‐month period directly preceding the event, among firms that are more politically connected, and when the province is dominated by faction politics and cronyism. Additional tests document a significant reduction in published newspaper articles about affected firms in advance of these political events, suggestive of a link between our observed stock price behavior and temporary shifts in the listed firms’ information environment.     

Predicting earnings in a poor information environment

Financial intermediaries, such as analysts, play an important role in providing information to investors. However, a large segment of the market (about 39% of CRSP firms between 1992 and 2009) is not served by financial analysts, leaving investors in a poor information environment. In this paper, we examine whether other publicly available information signals, such as insider trades, institutional holdings, and firms’ stock repurchases, can be used to predict information about earnings for these firms. We find that CFOs’ trading decisions are associated with new information contained in the annual earnings reports for firms with no or scant analyst coverage. In contrast, for firms with multiple analyst coverage, insider trading decisions are not predictive of new information in earnings reports. Our results suggest that some public information signals, such as insider trades, can be used to alleviate the poor information environment faced by investors. However, the market may not have fully priced the information contained in these signals.     

FINANCING DECISIONS AND SIGNALING BY PARTIALLY ACQUIRED FIRMS

It is well documented that financing decisions by firms can signal valuable information about that firm. Our goal is to determine whether financing decisions by firms can signal valuable information about large stakeholders who have a substantial investment in those firms. In particular, we focus on financing decisions by firms after they had been partially acquired to determine whether these decisions signaled information that affected the values of their corresponding partial acquirers. We find that some financing policies by partially acquired firms may not only signal valuable information about themselves, but may also signal valuable information about their corresponding partial acquirers. We also find that the magnitude of the signal for the partially acquired firm that enacts a financing policy is dependent on the degree of monitoring imposed by the respective partial acquirer. JEL classification: G14, G34     

Why Muddy the Water? Short selling and the disclosure of proprietary information

The conventional wisdom of voluntary disclosure literature is that the major factor preventing firms from disclosing customer-related information is firms' concern for proprietary costs. However, non-disclosure may also happen when firms have bad news to hide and are concerned about short sellers using customer information to verify bad news about the firms. By implementing a difference-in-differences research design against the backdrop of the deregulation of short selling in China, we find that increased short-selling pressure discourages firms from disclosing the identities of major customers. The findings also reveal consistent evidence supporting the bad news hoarding hypothesis rather than the proprietary cost hypothesis. Overall, our study provides an alternative explanation for firms’ lack of disclosure of customer information.     

Proprietary Costs and the Disclosure of Information About Customers

In deciding how much information about their firms’ customers to disclose, managers face a trade off between the benefits of reducing information asymmetry with capital market participants and the costs of aiding competitors by revealing proprietary information. This paper investigates the determinants of managers’ choices to disclose information about their firms’ customers using a comprehensive data set of customer‐information disclosures over the period 1976–2006. We find robust evidence in support of the hypothesis that proprietary costs are an important factor in firms’ disclosure choices regarding information about large customers.     

Firm Value and the Choice of Offering Method in Initial Public Offerings

A firm raising capital in an initial public offering faces the problems of choosing between a firm-commitment and a best-efforts offering and of how to convey information about its value to potential investors. The offering method chosen affects both the firm's cost of obtaining capital and investors' perceptions about firm value. A partially pooling, partially separating equilibrium is found where high-valued firms have information about their values revealed in a firm-commitment offering, while low-valued firms use best-efforts offerings and are unable to distinguish themselves from other firms.     

Stop the presses! Or wait,we might need them: Firm responses to local newspaper closures and layoffs

Media as a whole has been shown to play an important role as an information source, information intermediary, and monitor of public firms, but much less is known about whether local newspapers play a similar role. We attempt to shed light on this issue, and we investigate if and how firms respond to changes in the local newspaper industry, where closures and layoffs have become the norm. Compared to a sample of matched control firms, we find that following newspaper closures and large industry layoffs, nearby public companies boost dividend payouts. This result follows from prior research suggesting that investors pressure managers to increase dividends in response to growing agency problems. Cross-sectional analyses confirm that our results are driven by geographically-concentrated firms that rely more heavily on local newspapers as a monitor and information source. Our findings suggest that local newspapers play an important role as an information intermediary and monitor of public firms, and that the disappearance of local newspapers exacerbates agency problems in nearby firms that tend to be remedied by higher dividends.     

EXCHANGE LISTINGS AND DELISTINGS: THE ROLE OF INSIDER INFORMATION AND INSIDER TRADING

We examine whether insiders systematically exploit their private information before exchange listings and delistings they are likely to know about before outsiders/investors. Analyzing a comprehensive sample of over-the-counter (OTC) firms, which listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or American Stock Exchange (AMEX) during 1977–93, we find evidence that insiders act on their private information of an impending exchange listing by purchasing or postponing the sale of stock on private account. For firms delisting from the NYSE or AMEX, we find that insiders of these firms sell stock on private account before delisting. Overall, the evidence indicates that insiders act on their private information before exchange listings and delistings.     

MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECASTS: THEIR USEFULNESS AS A SOURCE OF FIRM-SPECIFIC INFORMATION TO SECURITY ANALYSTS

Although managers frequently release earnings forecasts, little is known about how this information affects investor beliefs. This study compares changes in analyst earnings forecasts following the release of management forecasts: (1) to changes in analyst forecasts of a control sample of nonforecasting firms; and (2) between management forecasts with differing degrees of accuracy. The forecasting error of analyst estimates for firms releasing management forecasts decreases more rapidly than the errors associated with the control firms, which implies that management forecasts are useful. Analysts apparently are capable of determining which management forecasts are most accurate and responding appropriately.     

The impact of regulation Fair Disclosure on investors' prior information quality — Evidence from an analysis of changes in trading volume and stock price reactions to earnings announcements

We document that Regulation Fair Disclosure has reduced differences in information quality between investors prior to quarterly earnings announcements consistent with the intent of the regulation. This reduction is driven by small firms and high technology firms, rather than the large firms targeted by the SEC, which suggests that selective disclosure among large firms may have been much more limited than what was presumed by proponents of FD. In addition, we document that FD has decreased the average information quality of investors in small and high technology firms in the period prior to an earnings announcement while having no lasting effect on other firms. Taken together these two results suggest that, for small and high technology firms, FD succeeded in eliminating selective disclosure but also lowered the average quality of information available about these firms.     

The signaling role of policy actions

In an economy affected by shocks that are imperfectly known, the monetary instrument takes on a dual stabilizing role: as a policy response that directly influences the economy and as a vehicle for information that reveals the central bank's assessment to firms. Because mark-up shocks cannot be neutralized by monetary policy, providing firms with more information about these shocks exacerbates their reaction and creates a larger distortion. Recognizing the signaling role of its instrument, the central bank distorts its policy response in order to optimally shape firms’ beliefs. While providing firms with more information is always detrimental to the output gap, it has a more subtle effect on price dispersion depending on whether information is provided through the transparency channel or through the signaling channel. Although more transparency is always detrimental to welfare, the information that is conveyed by the monetary instrument improves welfare when firms’ coordination is highly valuable.     

The Determinants of the Amount of Information Disclosed about Corporate Restructurings

This paper examines the information voluntarily disclosed about corporate restructurings. In 1995 the FASB's Emerging Issues Task Force reached a consensus opinion about mandatory restructuring disclosures. I use these requirements to construct a statistic that measures the amount of information voluntarily disclosed for a sample of firms from 1990–1993. Disclosure levels increased dramatically when the SEC targeted restructurings as an area for increased oversight in late 1993. Controlling for this SEC action, I document a positive association between the amount of information disclosed and increased monitoring by shareholders, suggesting that monitoring complements disclosure rather than substitutes for it. The amount disclosed is negatively related to the appointment of a new CEO prior to the restructuring, perhaps reflecting the use of the restructuring charge to manage earnings for these firms.