影子银行、房地产价格与中国经济波动

本文构建了一个包含家庭户、商业银行、影子银行、房地产部门和实体经济部门的动态随机一般均衡模型,研究了影子银行对地价、房价上涨的作用以及房地产与影子银行的相互作用对中国经济波动的影响。结果表明,放松对影子银行的监管时,地价和房价的上升幅度显著增大。当发生房地产需求冲击时,商业银行对房地产部门和实体部门的贷款均增加,影子银行对房地产部门的贷款显著增加,对实体部门的贷款显著下降。这说明,当存在影子银行时,贷款通过影子银行输送给了房地产部门,对房地产价格上涨起到了推波助澜的作用。本文还研究了引入影子银行后房地产需求冲击对主要宏观经济变量波动的影响,发现房地产需求冲击会对实体经济部门带来显著的挤出效应。     

浅析我国目前房地产融资所遇到的问题及相关解决办法

房地产行业作为典型的高投入,高回报,高风险的资本密集型行业,决定了其巨额的融资需求．但是我国现在房地产金融市场还是以传统的银行信贷为主。据统计全国房地产开发资金中银行对开发商发放的贷款占23．86％．企业自筹占28．69％．定金及预售款占38．82％。而定金和预售款中绝大一部分又是以银行对居民的个人住房贷款的形式存在．因此粗略统计房地产开发企业至少有60％的资金供给来源于银行贷款．由此对我国的银行系统造成了很大的潜在风险。当房价下滑时．带来的直接影响是银行房地产资产质量的恶化．给银行带来巨额的呆账和坏账损失．因此无论从房地产行业的进一步发展来看．还是从降低金融系统的整体风险来看．拓宽房地产企业的融资渠道势在必行。     

房地产融资结构与金融风险研究

国内房地产融资结构属于银行贷款依赖型。房地产开发贷款以及最终转变为销售收入的住房抵押贷款构成房地产开发资金的主要来源。国内金融市场结构以及不同房地产的经营方式决定贷款依赖型融资结构有合理性。这种融资结构并不意味着必然带来金融风险,真正影响房地产金融风险的潜在因素是银行体系脆弱性以及房地产企业弱小、市场信息不透明、经营模式陈旧等外部环境所致。所以防范房地产金融风险要从提高银行资产流动性、完善外部环境入手。     

谈房地产抵押期间银行抵押权益的依法保护

当前以房地产作抵押发放贷款已成为各行选取的重要贷款方式之一。银行重视房地产抵押贷款合同的签订,认为签订了合同,就可保证贷款的安全,但对抵押贷款合同签订后贷款清偿前即抵押期间,可能给银行抵押权益带来种种不利影响甚至损害．忽视依法保护和处理,以至出现有的银行房地产抵押贷款合同签订后,仍不能全面实现抵押权益,不能按时按量收回贷款本息。     

金融机构房地产贷款的压力测试:以江苏省为例

房地产价格下行给金融机构贷款会带来多大风险?本文采用向量自回归方法,以江苏省的数据为例,实证分析房地产价格、成交量、利率变化对金融机构房地产贷款不良资产的影响,进行压力测试.文章认为在房地产萧条情形下,银行会受到较大打击,但银行可以承受,并通过压力测试.     

房地产企业贷款风险识别研究

用信息方法对房地产企业贷款进行风险识别,分析了借贷双方信息不对称以及银行内部贷款审批过程中信息失真带来的风险,并对两类风险的成因和特征作了进一步描述。     

银行房地产信贷风险防范措施探讨

近年来,我国的房地产市场发展迅速,房地产开发企业每年从银行取得的贷款飞速增加,金融资本的投入巨大,一旦房地产的价格出现剧烈波动,就会造成贷款违约情况大增,房地产信贷风险就会凸现.本文阐述了银行房地产信贷的风险防范措施.     

银行房地产信贷风险防范措施探讨

近年来,我国的房地产市场发展迅速,房地产开发企业每年从银行取得的贷款飞速增加,金融资本的投入巨大,一旦房地产的价格出现剧烈波动,就会造成贷款违约情况大增,房地产信贷风险就会凸现。本文阐述了银行房地产信贷的风险防范措施。     

房地产抵押贷款风险防范之浅见

近年来，以城市房地产抵押方式向银行融资的业务逐年发展放大，城市银行在暂无更好的信贷投入时也将此类贷款做为业务发展的方向加以推广，一般来说以城市房地产抵押方式贷款较之其他抵押贷款方式至少具有以下优点。     

预防房产项目可行性报告的陷阱——再论房地产贷款潜在风险

提示房地产开发商为躲避人民银行“1．21”文件约束。任意编制房地产项目可行性报告的数据。指出这类可行性报告为银行房地产贷款设置了种种陷阱，给银行贷款带来一系列潜在风险。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.