The implications of a price anchoring effect at the upstairs market of the London Stock Exchange

This paper studies the upstairs market of the Stock Exchange Trading System (SETS) of the London Stock Exchange (LSE). We hypothesise that the implicit interaction between the upstairs and the downstairs markets at the LSE alters the pricing mechanism at the upstairs market. We show that market makers employ “cluster undercutting” practices in the upstairs market, which are based on a notional minimum price increment and resemble an anchoring-and-adjustment effect. In particular, we report that liquidity providers consistently buy just below the implicit minimum price increment and consistently sell just above it. This finding is strongly related to stock-price momentum and periods of increased trade intensity. Overall, this effect has only a weak connection to differences in informed trading and is mostly related to the notional price barriers and resistance levels introduced by the minimum tick size of the order book.     

The informational effect and market quality impact of upstairs trading and fleeting orders on the Australian Securities Exchange

This paper investigates the informational effect of trading and market segmentation on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) paying particular attention to the recent phenomenon: fleeting orders.¹ Confirming theoretical predictions, this study finds that permanent price effect (PPE) is significantly greater in the central limit order book (LOB) than in the upstairs market and that less informed institutional trades are routed to the upstairs market. It also finds that a well functioning upstairs market often results in lower transaction cost, higher volatility and larger trade size on the ASX. In the context of fleeting orders specifically, it finds the informational effect and market quality impact of upstairs market to be weaker after removing fleeting orders, which subsequently leads to the conclusion that recently introduced execution algorithms, which leave a trace of fleeting orders, often result in lower PPE and are mostly used my uninformed liquidity traders.     

Upstairs Market for Principal and Agency Trades: Analysis of Adverse Information and Price Effects

This paper directly tests the hypothesis that upstairs intermediation lowers adverse selection cost. We find upstairs market makers effectively screen out information-motivated orders and execute large liquidity-motivated orders at a lower cost than the downstairs market. Upstairs markets do not cannibalize or free ride off the downstairs market. In one-quarter of the trades, the upstairs market offers price improvement over the limit orders available in the consolidated limit order book. Trades are more likely to be executed upstairs at times when liquidity is lower in the downstairs market.     

Do uninformed crossed and internalized trades tap into unexpressed liquidity? The case of Nokia

Crossed and internalized upstairs trades are analysed in a dataset in which institutional investors can be identified. Earlier findings that upstairs trading is uninformed, taps into unexpressed liquidity, and does not affect market quality are revisited. The permanent price effect of crossings and internalized upstairs trades is significantly lower than that of limit order book trades due to the fact that the least informed institutional trades are routed upstairs. Crossed and internalized trades affect the depth and transaction costs in the limit order book and a greater reliance is placed on the upstairs market when liquidity is low and volatility is high.     

Trading and Pricing in Upstairs and Downstairs Stock Markets

We provide empirical evidence on the economic benefits of negotiatingtrades in the upstairs trading room of brokerage firms relativeto the downstairs market. Using Helsinki Stock Exchange data,we find that upstairs trades tend to have lower informationcontent and lower price impacts than downstairs trades. Thisis consistent with the hypotheses that the upstairs market isbetter at pricing uninformed liquidity trades and that upstairsbrokers can give better prices to their customers if they knowthe unexpressed demands of other customers. We find that theseeconomic benefits depend on price discovery occurring in thedownstairs market.     

In search of liquidity: block trades in the upstairs and downstairs markets

We analyze the ability of various market mechanisms to provideliquidity for large equity trades. Using data on 21,077 blocktransactions in Dow Jones stocks, we find that the 'downstairs'NYSE floor market is a significant source of liquidity. Althoughnegotiation in the informal 'upstairs' market provides betterexecution than the downstairs market for large trades, thesedifferences are economically small. We find, however, that upstairsmarkets are used by traders who can credibly signal that theirtrades are liquidity motivated. Thus, upstairs markets allowtrades that may not otherwise occur.     

The Role of Tick Size in Upstairs Trading and Downstairs Trading

This paper examines the impact of reducing the tick size on market-making behavior on The Toronto Stock Exchange. The results indicate a significant decrease in the percentage of trades of fewer than 10,000 shares involving the upstairs traders and a significant increase in the percentage of trades of fewer than 1,000 share involving the designated market makers. Consistent with this finding, the upstairs traders earn significantly lower returns on non-block trades and the designated market markers earn lower returns on trades smaller than 1,000 shares. We conclude the tick size reduction benefits the trading public.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers, G20, G24.     

Trade wedges,inventories, and international business cycles

The large, persistent fluctuations in international trade that cannot be explained in standard models by changes in expenditures and relative prices are often attributed to trade wedges. We show that these trade wedges can reflect the decisions of importers to change their inventory holdings. We find that a two-country model of international business cycles with an inventory management decision can generate trade flows and wedges consistent with the data. Moreover, matching trade flows alters the international transmission of business cycles. Specifically, real net exports become countercyclical and consumption is less correlated across countries than in standard models. We also show that ignoring inventories as a source of trade wedges substantially overstates the role of trade wedges in business cycle fluctuations.     

Is it punishment? Sovereign defaults and the decline in trade

Sovereign defaults are associated with declines in defaulting countries trade. Are these declines the result of trade sanctions as the trade sanctions argument of sovereign borrowing would suggest? We devise an empirical strategy to evaluate this issue based on the idea that if trade sanctions are causing the declines, bilateral trade with creditor countries should fall more than trade with other countries. We find that this is not the case. The analysis does not yield much evidence of broader punishment strategies including a league of major creditors either. These results contradict the predictions of the trade sanctions theory of sovereign borrowing.     

Revisiting Border Effect: Evidence from Taobao.com in China

Inherent home bias and trade barriers (particularly local protectionism in China), which are difficult to separate, are two main explanations of border effect. We attempt to solve this problem by analyzing online trade. Different from offline trade, inherent home bias is the only cause of online border effect because local governments are usually unable to restrict online trade. Thus, the difference between the border effect in online and offline trade can be reasonably interpreted as the existence of government protectionism in the offline market. We find a statistically significant difference between online and offline border effects in China, which can be interpreted as strong evidence that policy barriers remain significant and hinder interregional trade.     

Trade costs, firms and productivity

This paper examines the response of U.S. manufacturing industries and plants to changes in trade costs using a unique new dataset on industry-level tariff and transportation rates. Our results lend support to recent heterogeneous-firm models of international trade that predict a reallocation of economic activity towards high-productivity firms as trade costs fall. We find that industries experiencing relatively large declines in trade costs exhibit relatively strong productivity growth. We also find that low-productivity plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die; that relatively high-productivity non-exporters are more likely to start exporting in response to falling trade costs; and that existing exporters increase their shipments abroad as trade costs fall. Finally, we provide evidence of productivity growth within firms in response to decreases in industry-level trade costs.     

Gender bias in access to trade credit: Firm-level evidence from emerging markets

How do small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) led by women fare with respect to obtaining trade credit? While both trade credit and bank credit have long been viewed as potentially important financing instruments for SMEs, there is considerable ambiguity in the existing literature as to whether they complement or substitute each other from the perspective of credit-seeking SMEs. This is even more important for Women-Led Businesses (WLBs) in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) who tend to face higher severity of credit constraints relative to their male counterparts. Given this context, using firm-level data on 95 EMDEs over 2009–2020, we contribute to the literature on gender bias and credit access by examining three specific questions: First, is there a gender bias in obtaining inter-firm trade credit? Second, if there is one, can those WLBs with access to traditional bank finance use it as a signal to obtain trade credit? Third, how does this relationship hold for SMEs that are women-led? After tackling potential endogeneity bias, our empirical findings show that WLBs are less likely to obtain inter-firm trade credit relative to their male counterparts, although we observe that this bias tends to disappear when WLBs have received an institutional source of financing. We establish robustly that bank credit can act as a signaling device enabling the accessibility of inter-firm trade credit, suggesting a complementary relationship between trade credit and bank credit for WLBs.     

Are Chinese trade flows different?

We find that Chinese trade flows respond to economic activity and relative prices – as represented by a trade weighted exchange rate – but the relationships are not always precisely or robustly estimated. Chinese exports are generally well-behaved, rising with foreign GDP and decreasing as the Chinese renminbi (RMB) appreciates. However, the estimated income elasticity is sensitive to the treatment of time trends. Estimates of aggregate imports are more problematic. In many cases, Chinese aggregate imports actually rise in response to an RMB depreciation and decline with Chinese GDP. This is true even after accounting for the fact a substantial share of imports are subsequently incorporated into Chinese exports. We find that some of these counter-intuitive results are mitigated when we disaggregate the trade flows by customs type, commodity type, and the type of firm undertaking the transactions. However, for imports, we only obtain more reasonable estimates of elasticities when we allow for different import intensities for different components of aggregate demand (specifically, consumption vs. investment) or when we include a relative productivity variable.     

Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data

This paper evaluates alternative methods for classifying individual trades as market buy or market sell orders using intraday trade and quote data. We document two potential problems with quote-based methods of trade classification: quotes may be recorded ahead of trades that triggered them, and trades inside the spread are not readily classifiable. These problems are analyzed in the context of the interaction between exchange floor agents. We then propose and test relatively simple procedures for improving trade classifications.     

Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles

Countries that are more engaged in production sharing exhibit higher bilateral manufacturing output correlations. We use data on trade flows between US multinationals and their affiliates as well as trade between the United States and Mexican maquiladoras to measure production-sharing trade and its link with the business cycle. We then develop a quantitative model of international business cycles that generates a positive link between the extent of vertically integrated production-sharing trade and internationally synchronized business cycles. A key assumption in the model is a relatively low elasticity of substitution between home and foreign inputs in the production of the vertically integrated good.     

Trade Credit Risk Management: The Role of Executive Risk‐Taking Incentives

In this study we investigate how executive equity incentives affect companies’ risk‐taking behavior in relationships with their customers. We hypothesize and find that executive risk‐taking incentives provided by options are positively related to the degree of trade credit riskiness measured both as the amount of total trade credit a firm extends to all its customers and as the amount of trade credit a firm extends to customers with a high probability of default. We also find that the measures of trade credit riskiness are positively related to the firm's future stock return volatility, suggesting that the customer default risk inherent in customer‐supplier trade credit relationships represents an important economic source of the overall supplier‐firm riskiness. The findings of the study provide insights into why firms facing financial difficulties are not denied trade credit.     

US exports and time-varying volatility of real exchange rate

The effect of exchange rate volatility on trade is a controversial issue in international economics. Despite a widespread view that an increase in exchange rates volatility reduces trade, there is no real consensus on the direction or the size of the exchange rate volatility–trade level linkages. This paper investigates the relationship between US trade volume and exchange rate volatility using cointegration and error-correction models. We use conditional variances of the real effective exchange rate (REER) series modeled as a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) process to measure the exchange rate volatility. The cointegration results indicate a significant negative relationship between US export volume and exchange rate volatility. The short-run dynamics of the relationship, however, show that the effects of both real exchange rates and exchange rate volatility are insignificant.     

International trade and finance: Complementaries in the United Kingdom 1870-1913 and the United States 1920-1930

Do international trade and finance flow together? In a variety of theoretical models, trade and finance can be shown to have the potential to be substitutes or complements, so the matter must be resolved empirically. We study trade and financial flows from the United Kingdom from 1870 to 1913 and the United States in the interwar years. These were the two major capital exporters and key financial centers in each era. We find that trade and finance were robustly correlated for each case. We consider simultaneity issues. We also discuss evidence from the British Empire which casts doubt on the idea that trade is a punishment device in the event of a default.     

International trade and climate change

This paper provides a selective review of the interaction between international trade, international trade policies, environmental policies and climate change. The focus is on the role that international trade and the existence of countries have on the generation of emissions leading to greenhouse gas stocks in the atmosphere and hence, potentially, to climate change and on the role of trade and environmental policies in dealing with this global externality. We first review the question of whether trade exacerbates or contributes to the climate change problem by increasing global emissions, a particularly important issue being the pollution haven problem. Then we consider environmental policies and trade. We analyse non-cooperative environmental policies and investigate whether trade undermines the effectiveness of unilateral environmental policies, in which carbon leakage and international competitiveness are of particular importance. To deal with climate change, cooperation among countries is important. In this aspect, we review the interactions between trade and environmental policies, border tax adjustment policies, and the role of the World Trade Organization in combating climate change arising from economic activities.     

Are all odd-lots the same? Odd-lot transactions by order submission and trader type

We study odd-lot trading and determine if an odd-lot trade results from odd-lot orders or if odd-lots are a result of orders broken into multiple trades. We confirm that odd-lot transactions contribute to price discovery. Our finding that odd-lot transactions contain substantial information is not being driven by orders that are originally larger than 100 shares and subsequently divided into odd-lot transactions. We further find that odd-lot transactions resulting from odd-lot orders add more to price discovery than odd-lot transactions resulting from orders for 100 or more shares. Additionally, we find that more price contribution occurs when non-high frequency traders trade in an odd-lot transaction.