Measuring marginal intra-industry trade

Measuring Marginal Intra-Industry Trade. — Trade liberalisation and adjustment: how important is intra-industry trade? This paper focuses on the appropriate measurement of intra-industry trade as indicator of structural adjustment costs. It is argued that existing dynamic versions of the Grubel-Lloyd index reflect horizontal trade only and classify vertical intra-industry trade with inter-industry trade. The paper proposes a method to distinguish between horizontal and vertical trade and applies these techniques to emerging trade between the EU and the economies of central and eastern Europe.     

Static and dynamic measurement of intra-industry trade and adjustment: A geometric reappraisal

Static and Dynamic Measurement of Intra-Industry Trade and Adjustment: A Geometric Reappraisal. — The principal analytical device used is an industry “trade box” that allows the authors to geometrically examine changes in intra-industry trade (ITT), total trade (TT), net trade (NT) and the Grubel and Lloyd (GL) index as a result of movements in trade points. The authors propose an approach to measure changes in both the absolute and relative valuesof ITTand NT with respect to changes inTT. Their methodology highlights a number of weaknesses with the existing literature on marginalIIT and provides a methodology that can be applied to investigate adjustment implications of changing patterns and levels of intra-industry trade.     

经济一体化下中国贸易自由化调整成本实证研究——以中国和澳大利亚自贸区建立为例

在国际经济一体化背景下,本文从边际产业内贸易的分析角度对中国和澳大利亚贸易自由化调整成本进行实证分析。首先采用A指数对1992～2008年两国23个主要工业部门的边际产业内贸易水平进行测度,然后分别采用B指数比率和S指数比率对两国主要工业部门的贸易绩效和贸易自由化调整成本进行测度,最终得到一致结论:中国主要工业部门的贸易绩效整体较好,贸易自由化调整成本相对较小,但仍需进一步改善;"中高技术密集型制造品"行业调整成本低于"初级产品"和"劳动力和资源密集型制造品"行业;大部分"中高技术密集型制造品"行业的贸易自由化调整成本呈现明显下降趋势等。     

Trade liberalisation,structural adjustment and intra-industry trade: A note

Conclusions This note reports tests of the relationship between trade liberalisation and the levels of intra-industry trade, and between levels of IIT and structural adjustment in response to trade liberalisation. It has used a new approach by focussing on the impact of changes in protection on (i) changes in IIT, and (ii) differences in structural adjustment over time in high-IIT and low-IIT sectors.     

Bilateral Trade Balances of Malaysia with Her 11 Largest Trading Partners: New Evidence from Asymmetry Cointegration

Research on the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance is now moving in a new direction, by investigating whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects. The approach that relies upon separating depreciations from appreciations introduces nonlinearity into the adjustment process and relies upon the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. [2014. Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework, in: R. Sickels and W. Horrace (Eds), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, 281–314 (Springer)]. When we applied this new method to the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with each of her 11 largest partners, we found adjustment asymmetry in all models, short-run impact asymmetry effects and long-run asymmetry effects in the trade balance models between Malaysia and Asian countries.     

Adjustment,employment characteristics and intra-industry trade

Adjustment, Employment Characteristics and Intra-Industry Trade. — In this paper we use data on individual workers to investigate a number of dimensions of adjustment and relate these to trade. Specifically, we estimate the relative incidence of changes in workers’ employment status with regard to sector, firm, occupation and region. We relate the incidence of adjustment to a range of labour market characteristics and indicators of trade exposure. Our findings are not consistent with the notion that there is a systematic relationship between the type of trade expansion (inter- or intra-industry) and the type of employment adjustment (within or between industry adjustment) or that there is less labour market adjustment associated with intra- than inter-industry trade.     

新疆加工贸易与产业结构关系的实证研究

本文首先对加工贸易与产业结构的关系进行了理论分析,认为加工贸易的发展促进了产业转移和产业结构升级,产业结构对加工贸易也有促进作用;然后在分析新疆加工贸易和产业结构现状的基础上,运用实证分析研究了新疆加工贸易与产业结构的关系;最后根据以上分析结果,基于新疆加工贸易发展的角度,对优化产业结构提出了几点建议。     

The dynamics of trade integration and the political value of commitment

The paper analyzes the importance of credible institutions inthe process of trade liberalization. It combines aspects ofcredible policy announcements with adjustment costs. We showthat if industries' profits are subject to adjustment costs,a dynamic link between periods arises that creates constituenciesfor a non-discretionary trade policy regime. The conditionsfor a government to select such an institutional solution arederived.     

Migration Flows and Intra-Industry Trade Adjustments

In this paper we analyse the link between trade and migration. Focusing on the experience of Spain, we relate a marginal index of intra-industry trade to the stock of foreign workers—classified according to their country of origin and their situation in the Spanish labour market. We focus on the possibility that existing networks of foreign workers and their connections with their countries of origin could stimulate trade with the host country. Our results show a significant impact of the number of immigrants with work permits on intra-industry trade adjustment. However, this impact being positive or negative depends on whether foreign workers are employees or self-employed, the duration of the work permits and the type of job they occupy. JEL no. F10, F14, F15, F22     

Intra-Industry Trade Expansion and Employment Reallocation between Sectors and Occupations

This paper re-examines the relationship between trade and labour market adjustment costs by explicitly considering the effects of occupational mobility. We investigate the hypothesis that intra-industry trade expansion entails lower adjustment costs than inter-industry trade expansion—the so-called Smooth Adjustment Hypothesis (SAH). This paper makes two new contributions. First, the introduction of a new adjustment variable that considers reallocation between sectors and occupations. Second, a test of the SAH using panel data with relevant trade and non-trade control variables, which overcomes some of the methodological limitations of former studies. The results suggest a confirmation of the SAH and stress the importance of considering the effects of worker moves between occupations in the study of trade-induced adjustment. JEL no. F12, F16, J62     

DO INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND PROGRAMS IMPACT ON THE SACRIFICE RATIO?

From time to time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) makes resources available to member states for short‐term balance‐of‐payments support under an agreed arrangement know as a program. Most IMF programs include quantitative performance criteria for key macroeconomic variables, which borrowers must meet to obtain Fund resources. Standard open economy models predict that if policymakers are able to credibly commit to reducing inflation, rational economic agents will lower their expectations of inflation and, therefore, the trade‐off between inflation and output will fall. The present study tests whether IMF programs, by lending credibility to a country's adjustment program, influence the inflation–output trade‐off. The results from the study suggest that IMF programs do not significantly influence the inflation–output trade‐off. This finding is robust to changes in the estimation approach, the method used to obtain the output gap estimates and outliers.     

Labour-market effects of intra-industry trade: Evidence for the United Kingdom

Labor-Market Effects of Intra-Industry Trade: Evidence for the United Kingdom. — According to the “smooth adjustment hypothesis”, the labor-market adjustment costs entailed by trade liberalization are lower if trade expansion is intra-industry rather than inter-industry in nature. In this paper, we study the link between trade and labor market changes in UK manufacturing industries during the 1980s. We use industry-level measures of unemployment duration and wage variability as proxies for adjustment costs, and we relate them to various measures of intra-industry trade. Our evidence offers some support for the smooth adjustment hypothesis.     

COUNTRY-SPECIFIC DETERMINANTS OF VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE OF SOUTH AFRICA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the country‐specific determinants of horizontal and vertical intra‐industry trade (IIT) in South Africa using the gravity model of trade in a panel data setting. It empirically tests new and existing country‐specific hypotheses of intra‐industry trade. To ensure the sensitivity and robustness of the results, three different econometric approaches have been used in estimating the gravity models of intra‐industry trade: the consistent coefficient approach, the fixed effects approach, and the between effects approach. The econometric results are satisfactory in terms of economic interpretation and statistical significance. They are, in most cases, pertinent in determining the country pattern of South Africa's IIT and offer a new empirical validation to the theoretical explanatory variables.     

The elasticities approach in general equilibrium: Real shock dynamics

This paper constructs a general equilibrium model that embodies: the elasticities approach to the trade balance in the long run, but allows for inelastic short run demand; and an asset market approach to the capital account, with uncovered interest parity and consistent expectations.Two policies are examined: increased government expenditure and an increased import tariff. The effects of these policies on net exports, the exchange rate, and other variables are determined. A phase diagram demonstrates the dynamic adjustment paths of the exchange rate and the trade balance, and provides a general equilibrium explanation for overshooting and the J-curve as a result of real shocks. Extensions are made to account for policy pre-announcement, the Laursen-Metzler effect, and large-country effects.     

The measurement of intra-industry trade between unequal partners

Summary This note argues that the inadequacy of the GL index to correctly reflect the level of intra-industry trade in presence of trade imbalances may partly be due to measuring intra-industry trade between countries with large differences in economic size. Several adjustment procedures have been suggested in the literature but it is demonstrated that none of the alternative measures seem capable of eliminating the problem. A new measure of intra-industry trade is proposed in which the bilateral level of intra-industry trade is divided by the total number of products traded between two countries to yield an average level of intra-industry trade per product. This measure may also be applied at industry level, and in contrast to the GL index, it is highly correlated with the actual level of intra-industry trade. In studies of intra-industry trade, one should cautiously interpret the GL index since it may give a false picture of the extent and the volume of intra-industry trade. If the standard GL index is used, it is suggested that also alternative measures of intra-industry trade are employed to complement the GL index in order to correctly observe the true extent of intra-industry trade.     

中日贸易逆差与汇率之间关系的实证分析

文章基于VAR模型的研究方法,应用季度数据,分析2001--2007年间汇率和需求等因素对中日两国双边贸易收支的影响。结果显示：长期中汇率与中日贸易收支不满足马歇尔-勒纳条件,短期内实际汇率对贸易逆差的调节作用很小。无论在短期还是长期,真正影响中日双边贸易收支的因素是日本的国内需求和政治因素。葛兰杰因果检验显示中国对日本的贸易逆差是日本经济复苏的原因。     

The global macroeconomics of NAFTA

Previous empirical studies of NAFTA have commonly used trade models that do not allow international capital flows to adjust to changes in regional trade arrangements such as NAFTA. This paper explores the dynamic implications of NAFTA with particular focus on the short-run and longer-run adjustment of financial capital. This adjustment affects the global allocation of physical capital and therefore changes the growth prospects for a country such as Mexico. Our results suggest that Mexico and the world economy gain more from NAFTA than merely a static reallocation of production possibilities. In the short run, the adjustment of financial capital affects nominal and real exchange rates. This adjustment is far more important for the short-term allocation of trade flows than partial equilibrium adjustment of trade based only on changes in long-term price differentials.     

加工贸易政策调整:政策信号与未来发展

近期有关加工贸易的政策调整相对比较频繁,这已引起了很多加工贸易企业的关注:政策调整信号如何理解?加工贸易未来的发展方向是什么?本文集中分析了加工贸易要不要发展,转型升级的障碍,以及未来政策调整的方向。本文认为,近期政策调整的信号可以概括为限制与发展,限制是为了更好的发展;无论是将加工贸易理解为保税监管的贸易形式,还是理解为国际生产分工的实现方式,当前阶段加工贸易发展的大格局不会改变。     

Vertical Intra-Industry Trade and Foreign Direct Investment between Japan and European Countries

In this paper, we provide an overview of the development of vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) between Japan and various European countries, including both old and new EU members, as well as emerging Central and Eastern European countries. VIIT indices constructed in this paper cover a much wider range of margins of unit price ratio than existing studies. Our empirical model attempts to explain the distributional characteristics of VIIT through foreign direct investments (FDI), in addition to traditional determinants of IIT, such as differences in GDP per capita, average GDP, and smaller and larger GDPs. Our sample covers the period from 1988 to 2004 for bilateral trade between Japan and 31 European countries. Our econometric methodology for these panel data uses fixed-effect model estimation with a variable transformation determined by a Box-Cox approach. We find that intra-industry trade between European countries and Japan increases with their corresponding Japanese FDIs, especially for new EU member countries. Our results also indicate that it is important to measure a wider range of quality based on relative prices rather than the traditional ratio used in the literature.     

Intra-industry trade as an indicator of labor market adjustment

Intra-Industry Trade as an Indicator of Labor Market Adjustment. — A growing body of recent empirical research uses measures of change in intra-industry trade as indicators of labor market adjustment. In this paper, we argue that the theoretical foundations for this work are problematic. To make this argument we develop a simple model with both inter- and intra-industry trade and adjustment. We find that changes in domestic absorption, which influence trade flows but which are distinct from production changes, make changes in IIT an unreliable guide to labor market pressure.