Loan guarantees: Costs of default and benefits to small firms

Governments of most countries seek to encourage Small and Medium Sized Enterprise (SME) growth and the job creation that many believe is fostered by such growth. Substantive growth usually requires expansion capital. It is often perceived that compared with larger firms, SMEs face disproportionately less access to the debt capital they need for start-up, growth, and survival. Consequently, governments and trade associations have often intervened in credit markets by taking on the role of guarantor of loans that financial institutions advance to SMEs. For example, the Small Business Administration in the United States provides guarantees of loans made by banks to qualifying small firms. Similar schemes are in effect in, among other countries, Canada, Japan, the U.K., Korea, and Germany. Trade associations take on such roles in France, Spain, and other nations.Loans that support the expansion of small enterprises may convey significant benefits to the borrowing firms and, through job creation and retention, to the rest of society. However, to the extent that some borrowers are unable to meet the repayment obligations of their debt, guarantors also face material real costs of honoring their guarantee to the lenders. Loan guarantee programs are designed in a variety of ways. Often these programs do not appear to reflect guidance from economic theory or experience. This paper draws on empirical evidence to compare costs with benefits. In addition, it uses the results and economic theory to provide some guidance for the design of loan guarantee programs. Finally, the study shows that loan guarantee programs can be an effective means of supporting start-up, growth, and survival of new and risky enterprises. The work finds that substantial total and incremental job creation may be attributed to the Canadian loan guarantee program.The paper reviews previous attempts to conduct cost-benefit analyses of loan guarantee programs. It finds wide variation, internationally, in default rates. Published data suggests default rates vary from less than 5% (Germany) to more than 40% (U.K.). The empirical analysis reported here focuses on the Canadian implementation of loan guarantees, the Small Business Loans Act (SBLA). Findings include (1) loan guarantees granted under the terms of the SBLA provide an extremely efficient means of job creation, with very low estimated costs per job; (2) default rates are higher for newer firms, increase with the amount of funds borrowed, and vary widely by sector (borrowers in the retail and accommodation, and food and beverage sectors were significantly more likely to default than borrowers in other sectors); and (3) the widening eligibility to larger firms and to larger loans may not be well advised and is inconsistent with the goals of the program. Moreover, reducing the loan ceiling would arguably discourage fraudulent applications while servicing those SMEs most in need of early-stage capital.In addition, analysis of the lenders' motives suggests that default rates on the portfolio of guaranteed loans and, therefore, the costs of honoring guarantees, are particularly sensitive to the level of the guarantee. Small reductions in the level of the guarantee (for example, guaranteeing 80% of principal and accrued interest instead of 85%) could lead to substantial reductions in default rates.Debate persists in economic theory about whether or not government intervention in the credit market is warranted, in spite of the findings that loan guarantees seem to make positive contributions. Further analysis of these issues is advised.     

Pricing of Payment Services: A Comparative Analysis of Paper-based Banking and Electronic Banking

This paper aims at comparing paper-based banking and electronic banking in terms of cost-efficiency and pricing. The focus is primarily on giro payments made manually by mail and electronically via the Internet, but also by cash over the counter. The paper presents principles of efficient pricing in terms of production fees and capacity fees. It also demonstrates that the current pricing of payment services in Norway and Sweden is far away from these principles as production fees are set below marginal costs while capacity fees are in many cases above capacity costs. Such deviations may stimulate customers to an excess demand for electronic payments while paper-based payments will be depressed.     

Protecting Consumers From Uninsured Motorists: An Alternative Financing Mechanism

For over 65 years, state legislators have debated how consumers who have been injured by financially irresponsible motorists will be compensated. While uninsured motorists insurance has become the modal choice among several states, responsible motorists in most states must completely pay for this coverage themselves. Motorists who drive without liability insurance contribute virtually nothing to meeting the costs of accidents they cause. This paper proposes that premiums for basic limits of uninsured motorists coverage be collected by a small universal motor fuel surcharge. These state-collected premiums then would be distributed to insurers on the basis of the number of vehicles that they insure within the jurisdiction. It is proffered that this mechanism is both more equitable and significantly lower in cost for the average motorist than the various present mechanisms of financing uninsured motorists coverage.     

State intervention and the microcredit market: the role of business development services

We analyze in this paper how various forms of state intervention can impact microfinance institutions’ lending behavior. Using a simple model where entrepreneurs receive individual uncollateralized loans, we show that, not surprisingly, state intervention through the loan guarantee increases the number of entrepreneurs receiving a loan. However, after modeling business development services (BDS) provided by the microfinance institution, we show that the loan guarantee can have a counterproductive effect by reducing the number of entrepreneurs benefiting from such services. We therefore analyze an alternative policy: BDS subsidization. We show that if BDS are efficient enough and are targeted toward less performing borrowers, then—for fixed government expenditures—such subsidies do better in terms of financial inclusion than the loan guarantee. Moreover, we argue that—under similar conditions—BDS subsidization alone does better in terms of financial inclusion than a mix of policies.     

Driving Shareholder Value: The Role of Marketing in Reducing Vulnerability and Volatility of Cash Flows

Marketing professionals have historically found it difficultto measure and communicate to other disciplines and to top managementthe value created by marketing activities. All too often, justificationof marketing and communication initiatives is restricted to theirimpact on revenue generation. But, marketers do create valuein other ways. Marketing actions do lead to an acceleration ofthe market's acceptance of new products, to enhanced customerretention/loyalty, to an improvement in the size and qualityof customer bases, to price premiums and other desirable payoffs.Such financial outcomes suggest that marketing activities areoften strategic investments, not tactical, intangible expenses.We suggest that the effectiveness of marketinginitiatives should be evaluated on the basis of their impacton the basic drivers of shareholder value–cash flow acceleration,cash flow enhancement, reduction in volatility and vulnerabilityof cash flows, and growth in the long-term value of business).These shareholder value metrics provide a framework for communicationof the contribution of marketing strategies to value creation.In particular, this paper focuses on the role of marketing inenhancing shareholder value by reducing the vulnerability andvolatility (hence risks) associated with cash flows. This riskreduction (and shareholder value creation) role of marketingactivities is examined within cross-functional processes forcreating customer value such as design of new products and services,supply chain management and management of relationships withcustomers, channels and strategic partners.     

浙江省“联保贷款”制度的法律分析及完善对策

"联保贷款"是一种特殊的信用担保形式,浙江省诸暨市和开化县两地推出的"联保贷款"各具特色,具有鲜明法律特征,取得了明显的经济效益和社会效益,但"联保贷款"制度还存在一定的法律问题,需要进一步规范和完善。     

A membership pricing policy to facilitate service scale-expansion

This paper proposes a multi-year membership pricing policy for a service business like a gym chain. In the pricing policy, the equivalent membership price per year is relatively low to attract customers, and the multi-year membership fees must be prepaid in full. The prepaid cash provides resources for scale-expansion by opening new stores. We develop a nonlinear mixed integer programming model to formulate the pricing decisions. Numerical experiments reveal that the multi-year membership pricing policy, from a long-term perspective, is substantially better than the business-as-usual pricing policy (1-year membership) in cash balance, profit, and market share. Yet, the performances of the two pricing policies do not differ much from a short-term perspective. These findings indicate that the multi-year pricing policy may be a good strategy, because it initially attracts less attention of competitors; suddenly it emerges and substantially outperforms its competitors in cash balance, profit, and market share.     

Ambush Marketing Revisited

Corporate sponso~ship of events has become a multi-bil- lion War promotional enteqnise. Some companies have sought methods of gaining the benefits of official spansorship while subvdng the esca- lating s m h i p fees charged by most major events. This approach has come to be known as ambush marketing. One event that is a traditional target for ambushers is the Olympic Games. Ambush marketers have found that by purchasing large amounts of advertising during these events they enjoy as much (or more) brand awareness as official sponsors incur- ring much greater costs. The results of this experimental study shed light on existing sponsorship questions, partic+rly ambush marketing in the Olympic context. Among the key finbgs are that coIlsumers seem unable to distinguish between official and ambush sponciors. This confu- sion has implications in terms of attibdinal measures, as study data indicate that sponsors rarely gain oompetitive advantage here, either. Measures of purchase intention also indicate that ambushers consistently do as well, or ktlw, than official sponsors.     

Incrementality of SME Loan Guarantees

In many countries, loan guarantee programs are important elements of government policy with respect to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). If loan guarantee schemes are to be effective, a majority of firms obtaining assistance through such a scheme ought not to be able to obtain financing from existing sources: a property known as incrementality or additionality. This paper describes a new approach to measuring incrementality. This work uses a two-stage process to estimate the incrementality of loans made under the terms of the Canada Small Business Financing (CSBF) program. First, a logistic regression-based model of loan outcomes (essentially a credit-scoring model) is estimated based on a large representative sample of SMEs. The resulting model was consistent with prior expectations and exhibited high levels of goodness-of-fit. The model was then employed to classify a sample of firms that had received loans under the terms of the loan guarantee scheme. Incremental loans ought to be classified as “turndowns” by the model; hence the proportion of loan guarantee recipients that the model classified as turndowns is a direct measure of incrementality. For the CSBF loan guarantee program incrementality was estimated (with 95% confidence) as 74.8±9.0%.     

Donors’ Mechanisms for Financing International and National Public Goods: Loans or Grants?

This paper investigates whether three classes of donors – multilateral organisations, regional institutions and bilateral donors – tailor their mix of grants and loans to reflect international benefit spillovers and recipient‐specific benefits, derived from aid‐funded activities in developing and transition countries. To account for recipient benefit shares, donors should use a greater share of grants when supported activities yield a larger portion of international public benefits. A greater reliance on loans is appropriate when a large portion of recipient‐specific benefits are associated with the assistance. By reflecting recipient benefit shares in the grant‐loan mix, donors’ assistance also promotes allocative efficiency. Using the Credit Reporting System (CRS) database from OECD for 1980–2000, our analysis establishes that various donor classes apply different grant‐loan mixtures when supporting the environment, health, knowledge and governance sectors of recipient countries. We employ analysis of variance and other statistical comparisons of the means to investigate differences among donor classes. We demonstrate that bilateral donors do the best job in tailoring their grant‐loan mix to accord with the extent of international public good benefits embodied in the aid‐supported activity. Multilateral organisations’ grant‐loan mix is intermediate of the three types of donors, with some evidence of them relying more on grants to finance activities that possess a larger share of international public good spillovers. Regional institutions, however, do not discriminate their grant‐loan mix by either sectors or the associated public good spillovers. This finding suggests that regional development banks need to adjust their grant‐loan mix to better account for international benefit spillovers if these institutions are to warrant the increased funds to underwrite regional public goods that they have been seeking. If, however, their mix is institutionally set, then the stakeholders must give these institutions greater flexibility to tailor their grants and loans to who benefits from the aid‐supported public goods. This is the first paper to empirically ascertain whether the grant‐loan mix is tied to the inherent publicness of the aid‐funded activities.     

The employer costs of motor vehicle crashes

The latest published estimate of the cost of US motor vehicle crashes to employers is for 1989. This study estimates annual employer costs in 1998-2000. Incidence was estimated with occupational injury data and motor vehicle crash data for 1998-2000. Employer costs were estimated from Federal estimates of crash costs by source of payment using data on the percentage of varied payment streams (e.g. health insurance, sick leave) paid by employers. Motor vehicle crash injuries on and off the job cost employers almost $60 billion annually, including $16.3 billion in fringe benefit costs; $25.2 billion in property damage, workplace disruption and other non-fringe costs; and $18.4 billion in wage-risk premiums. Traffic safety programmes can reduce the fringe benefit bill without reducing the benefits offered to employees. Eliminating alcohol-impaired and unrestrained driving would save employers $15.2 billion annually.     

The Ethics of Slotting: Is this Bribery, Facilitation Marketing or Just Plain Competition?

The practice of manufacturers' payments of fees to retailers for the display and sale of their products has become a common practice. In the grocery retail business, the fees paid by manufacturers are called slotting fees, or a payment made for a slot on the shelf. The same practice is used now in the retail book industry. Large book chains command high fees from publishers for the prominent display of books. Entrepreneur's products are often precluded from stores and markets because slotting fees are prohibitive. The fees are non-uniform and often paid in cash, creating an atmosphere that has already spawned illegal activity on the part of retail executives. This article examines the ethics of slotting fees.     

Credit access for high-risk borrowers in financially concentrated markets: Do SBA loan guarantees help?

The Small Business Administration's (SBA) loan guarantee program was established to correct financial capital market inefficiencies and improve small business access to financial capital. However, the SBA loan guarantee program has been criticized for its failure to improve the performance of financial capital markets available to small businesses. This study considers the financial capital market failure created by lenders' monopoly power (specifically, financial market concentration) in financial capital markets. Based on this potential market failure, a model is derived to evaluate the behavior of lenders and borrowers in financial capital markets. Using the national Survey of Small Business Finance, this study compares the financial characteristics of small business borrowers with and without SBA loan guarantees, and provides a qualitative assessment of the SBA's ability to correct financial capital market inefficiencies. When considering only the interaction between borrower quality and the degree of financial market concentration, high-risk borrowers in high concentration financial markets have a higher probability of receiving an SBA loan guarantee than low-risk borrowers in low concentration financial markets. However, when other factors influencing the demand for financial capital are included in the model, only the borrower attributes (credit risk and age) are significant. While the SBA loan guarantee program appears to partially mitigate the effects of the market failure caused by financial market concentration for high-risk borrowers, the program appears to be better designed to address borrower risk, rather than credit market failure.     

Auswirkungen des neuen Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes auf Offshore-Wind-Investitionen

The German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) has burdened private and industrial consumers with record electricity costs. Consequently, Energy and Economics Minister Gabriel pushed reform through cabinet on 8 April 2014 to curtail revenue guarantees to investors and to cut costs. The revenue guarantee reductions, most notably of one cent per kilowatt hour in the “Stauchungsmodell”, bring investor returns down to 9.8 per cent, i.e. into the region of the financing costs faced by investing energy companies. If investors stay away from offshore wind power due to marginal economics, the scale benefits in investment and ongoing production costs of an estimated 30 per cent may jeopardise the original intended cost reduction.     

Hedging costs and joint determinants of premiums and spreads in structured financial products

Evaluating more than 317,000 discount certificates in the German secondary market, we find that premiums and spreads are endogenous and negatively related but depend on different key determinants. The fundamental determinants of the premiums are mainly profit-related, that is, dividends of the underlying, issuers’ credit risk, lifecycle effect, and competition, whereas hedging costs are less important. However, initial hedging costs (IHC) are priced into the premium in the case of large inventory changes. The spread is mostly determined by hedging costs and risk components, such as IHCs, rebalancing costs, volatility, scalper risk, and overnight gap risk—but also by dividends.     

An analysis of the behavior of mature black-owned commercial banks

Accounting and statistical techniques are used to compare the behavior of a sample of mature black-owned banks with that of a matched set of nonminority-owned banks. The black banks are generally less profitable. The major reasons for this lower profitability include more liquid asset portfolios at the black banks, higher operating costs on liabilities, and higher rates of loan loss. Higher loan loss rates appear to be the single most important factor, with losses on real estate and possibly commercial and industrial loans probably being the most serious continuing sources of loan losses.     

Quo vadis Kita-Beiträge?

The debate over abolishing day care fees in Germany is ongoing. Coming from an education and family economics perspective, this contribution summarises various arguments pro and contra different day care fee systems. The following questions are addressed: How much is paid in fees over the entire income distribution? How do fees differ by region and provider? And how would households react if there were no longer any day care fees? In addition to discussing the huge variety of fee systems, other issues which contribute to a very diverse day care system are also briefly described. Overall, more intense federal engagement is needed, which makes sense given the nation-wide benefits of a qualitatively high level of day care quality.     

我国住房抵押贷款借款人提前还款行为分析

住房抵押贷款中借款人的提前还款行为向来是金融机构及MBS投资者所关注的焦点,提前还款行为之所以广受关注,是因为它直接影响住房抵押贷款现金流的变化,从而改变着MBS的价值。因此,构建我国借款人提前还款分析模型,为以后的MBS定价研究奠定基础。     

供应链金融在企业营运资金筹集中的应用

供应链金融作为一种创新的融资模式应运而生,为企业提供了更多获得金融机构营运资金支持的机会。目前,从供应链金融的视角看,我国企业存在着库存现金管理不科学、商业信用利用不充分、存货缺乏有效控制、应收账款回收缓慢等现实问题。企业在营运资金筹集中应用供应链金融,需要注意信用缺失、自我评价过高、质押物选择等方面问题,应通过金融资本与实体经济的协作,构筑银行、企业之间的互利共存,以达到降低整个供应链运作成本,持续发展的产业生态,有效缓解资金短缺问题的目的。     

Deutschland haftet — aber warum umsonst?

State guarantees have been proven instruments of economic policy in Germany for decades. Since the beginning of the global financial crisis, the sum of contractual, statutory and implied guarantees reached nearly 6 trillion euros. For the German government, the outstanding guarantees become ever riskier as the huge amounts of liability for banks and instable euro-states grows. Therefore it is suggested to require risk-based guarantee fees wherever possible. With the exception of Greece, most of the indebted countries and financial institutions certainly would be able to pay risk-orientated guarantee fees to avoid being cut off from capital markets. A European debt agency which earns money by giving guarantees would enhance the acceptance of the euro stabilization policy in the donor countries.