汇率冲击和行业就业调整

根据Campa和Goldberg的贸易结构理论,我们对国内15个行业就业和汇率间的关系进行了实证研究。结果发现大多数行业在汇率冲击后的反应和理论一致,即人民币升值会抑制其就业增长,而贬值有利于其就业扩张,尤其是对高开放度和劳动密集型行业影响显著。但由于其他行业就业汇率弹性并不显著,因此降低了整体就业汇率弹性的显著性。此外,由于我国各行业开放度高于美国,因此就业汇率弹性也较大。     

调整贸易不平衡:税率比汇率更稳妥

我的发言是关于中美贸易顺差方法的解决方法,用税收的方法有什么好处,用人民币升值、人民币汇率变动的方式来减轻外汇压力的方式会有什么样的问题,需要注意什么环节,对贸易不平衡问题的消除方法等的一些理解.     

加工贸易与一般贸易进出口价格的汇率传递估计与比较分析

本文从不同的贸易方式角度对人民币升值的进出口价格传递效应进行了理论建模和实证分析。文章首先依据利润最大化的厂商目标对进出口厂商的定价行为进行模型设定,其次对两种不同贸易方式中进出口价格的汇率传递进行估计和实证检验,最后得出分析结论:人民币升值对我国一般贸易价格的影响较小且不显著,而对我国加工贸易价格的影响较大且显著。     

Shocks and the Viability of a Fixed Exchange Rate Commitment

The incentive to renege on a commitment to a fixed exchange rate is shown to be state contingent. A fixed exchange rate policy is not viable under unusual circumstances, and the incentive to violate the commitment is larger in the case of contractionary shocks than in the case of expansionary shocks. The possibility that the exchange rate regime is changed in unusual circumstances has significant effects also under normal circumstances, implying systematic devaluation expectations, excessive real wages and (ex post) real rates of interest, lower output and loss of reserves, which in turn reduces the incentive to initiate a fixed exchange rate policy. Moreover, policyshifts may be contagious among countries.     

Vertical Trade,Exchange Rate Pass-Through,and the Exchange Rate Regime

We compare the welfare of different combinations of monetary and currency policies in an open-economy macroeconomic model that incorporates two important features of many small open economies: a high level of vertical international trade and a high degree of exchange rate pass-through. In this environment, a small economy prefers a fixed exchange rate regime over a flexible regime, while the larger economy prefers a flexible exchange rate regime. There are two main causes underlying our results. First, in the presence of sticky prices, relative prices adjust through changes in the exchange rate. Multiple stages of production and trade make it more difficult for one exchange rate to balance the whole economy by adjusting several relative prices simultaneously throughout the vertical chain of production and trade. More specifically, there is a tradeoff between delivering an efficient relative price between home and foreign final goods and delivering an efficient relative price between home and foreign intermediate goods. Second, because the small economy faces a high degree of exchange rate pass-through under a flexible regime, it suffers from a lack of efficient relative prices in vertical trade. The larger economy, however, does not face this problem because its level of exchange rate pass-through is low.     

汇率波动、汇率传递与贸易条件

本币升值一定会改善贸易条件吗?文章基于汇率传递的视角,构建汇率波动与贸易条件的理论模型,从理论上论证了本币升值改善贸易条件的机制和条件;并运用MS-VAR模型对中国2005年1月至2014年11月的月度数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,在不同区制下人民币实际有效汇率指数波动对贸易条件影响的方向和大小呈现明显的非对称性。进一步的非线性Granger因果关系检验发现,仅存在由人民币实际有效汇率指数到贸易条件的单向因果关系。     

Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade

The purpose of this note is to show that a positive effect of exchange rate volatility on export production has a theoretical basis. The key to this claim is that, as the exchange rate volatility increases, so does the value of the real option to export to the world market. Higher volatility increases the potential gains from trade. This may explain part of the mixed empirical findings regarding the effects of exchange rate risk on international trade.     

名义汇率与均衡汇率的偏离及其调整

本文通过评析当前有关人民币汇率取向的争论及其依据，认为人民币名义汇率应当依据均衡汇率的变动进行调整。通过改进Edwards(1989)的模型，本文建立了一般均衡的分析框架，发现实际汇率存在一条均衡路径，内生变量和外生变量的波动能够引起均衡汇率的变动。然后结合中国的数据利用汇率的误差修正模型估算了均衡汇率，结论是人民币名义汇率存在低估。在当前升值压力巨大的背景下，出于外汇制度改革的战略性考虑，应适当的让人民币名义汇率升值。     

Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime

We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the best monetary arrangement for the pegger. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42     

产业结构调整的汇率驱动路径:价格穿越模型的解释

汇率作为宏观经济调节变量,在受到其它经济条件或经济因素影响的同时,其变动对国民经济也有着广泛而复杂的作用。通过对中国汇率制度历史演进的分析,可以发现人民币汇率的变动始终与中国产业结构的调整息息相关。文章以价格这一中间变量作为动力因素,建立价格穿越模型,分析汇率变动引起产业结构调整的传导路径与作用机理。     

房价冲击、利率波动与货币供求:理论分析与中国的经验研究

本文证明了在一个包含房价的两市场动态化系统中存在焦点均衡的稳态,房价对市场均衡利率的最终影响取决于房价对货币供给与货币需求之边际影响的对比。进一步的理论分析发现,随着房价的高涨(萧条),房地产市场将起到扩张性货币政策效力放大器(衰减器)与紧缩性货币政策效力衰减器(放大器)的作用。经验研究显示,中国房价的外生冲击在改变货币需求稳定性的同时,也增强了货币供给的内生性;长期中房价对市场利率具有显著的反向因果影响,表明中国房价的高涨成为创造市场流动性的一个重要来源。     

Global Trade Flows: Revisiting the Exchange Rate Elasticities

Open Economies Review - This paper contributes to the debate on the magnitude of exchange rate elasticities by providing a set of price and quantity elasticities for 51 advanced and emerging-market...     

中日贸易逆差与汇率之间关系的实证分析

文章基于VAR模型的研究方法,应用季度数据,分析2001--2007年间汇率和需求等因素对中日两国双边贸易收支的影响。结果显示：长期中汇率与中日贸易收支不满足马歇尔-勒纳条件,短期内实际汇率对贸易逆差的调节作用很小。无论在短期还是长期,真正影响中日双边贸易收支的因素是日本的国内需求和政治因素。葛兰杰因果检验显示中国对日本的贸易逆差是日本经济复苏的原因。     

升值压力、汇率预期与中美贸易余额

汇率升值对贸易收支的影响效果会因相应的升值预期变化而抵消,所以在升值预期持续存在的条件下,单纯的升值并不能平衡贸易收支。汇率预期受升值压力影响,而中美贸易顺差的扩大是升值压力的重要来源,从而形成一种经济循环:中美贸易顺差增加升值压力,升值压力加强升值预期,升值预期进一步扩大贸易顺差。     

汇率传递及其对贸易平衡的影响

本文首先介绍了汇率的进出口价格传递理论和汇率的国内消费价格传递理论,然后分析了这两类汇率传递对贸易平衡的影响。本文的分析得出,汇率变动对贸易平衡的影响主要取决于汇率传递的速度和程度,以及两类汇率传递之间的关系。单从汇率传递来看,汇率变动对竞争性商品进出口的短期影响较大,长期影响较小;对垄断性商品进出口的短期影响较小,长期影响较大。     

人民币汇改后汇率对不同贸易方式进出口的影响

人民币汇改以来,人民币汇率已升值20％,文章通过实证分析研究人民币升值对不同贸易方式的影响。研究结果表明,人民币升值贸易顺差继续扩大,而加工贸易是我国贸易顺差的主要来源,汇率对一般贸易的影响大于对加工贸易的影响,文章从几个方面分析了原因,并提出了建议。     

汇率调整、定价模式与出口加工企业盈利能力:汇率调整微观效应的弹性分析

本文采用弹性分析方法,对价格固定的小型开放经济与价格粘性的大型开放经济中的汇率调整、定价模式与代表性出口加工企业的盈利能力变动之间的关系进行了讨论。基准模型与扩展模型的分析共同证实:首先,汇率调整对出口加工企业的盈利能力会产生不确定的结果。其次,体现企业的产品类型及技术特征的出口与进口的汇率弹性和进口投入的产出弹性是决定汇率调整对企业盈利能力的影响程度与方向的基础因素。较之于基准模型,扩展模型则证明:体现产品与要素的国际市场结构特征的产品需求与要素供给的价格弹性,以及出口与进口价格的汇率弹性,在决定汇率调整对企业盈利能力的影响程度与方向中发挥关键的作用。最后,证明了当出口加工企业面临不完全竞争的国际市场,且可以自由选择计价货币时,本币的升值会提高其盈利能力。     

Exchange Rate Returns and External Adjustment: Evidence from Switzerland

This paper studies the predictive power of external imbalances for exchange rate returns. We focus on Switzerland, a very open economy where exchange rate movements have a strong effect on external imbalances through valuation effects and trade flows. Using a simple modification of the Gourinchas and Rey (J Polit Econ 115(4):665–703, 2007) approach to make their approximation applicable to Switzerland, we find that measures of deviations from trends in Swiss net foreign assets and net exports help to forecast Swiss franc nominal effective exchange rate movements, both in and out of sample.