A Long History of FOMC Voting Behavior

We devise and apply a method for estimating monetary policy reaction functions for individual members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve. Our method uses members' votes on the monetary policy directive in FOMC meetings as the key source of data on individual preferences. The analysis provides a ranking by preference for ease for 84 FOMC members who served during the 1966-1996 period.     

How does housing wealth affect household consumption? Evidence from macro-data with special implications for China

Thanks to four-decade spectacular economic growth, China's households have been accumulating a stockpile of wealth. In such a context, further concerns have been raised about the relationship between wealth accumulation and improvement of economic well-being, mainly through consumption. The issue becomes even more important when considering the challenges facing China in recent years, which can be characterized by a mix of increasingly leveraged households, escalating housing price, sluggish consumption, slowing economic expansion, trade frictions with the United States, and the Covid-19 pandemic and resulting economic difficulties. With that background in mind, this paper first provides international evidence on the relationship between household consumption and wealth, especially in the form of houses. Drawing on a panel of aggregate data for fourteen countries including China, we find that household consumption positively responds to changes in housing wealth, and this link is further affected by different levels of government spending and financial development. We next relate the international evidence to the case of China, with the focus on some recent policy issues over housing regulations and consumption promotion. Importantly, as the evidence and underlying theories suggest, housing wealth-consumption association does not follow a simplistic pattern, and thus, multiple policy measures could and should be undertaken rather than merely curbing speculative activities in real estate exchanges and associated financial business.     

U.S. Monetary Policy since the 1950s and the Changing Content of FOMC Minutes

Content analysis is used to analyze 60 years of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. Since there is no unique algorithm to quantify content, two different algorithms are applied. Wordscores compares content relative to a chosen benchmark, while DICTION is an alternative algorithm that is specifically designed to capture various elements that capture the sentiment or tone conveyed in a text. The resulting indicators are then incorporated into a VAR. The content of FOMC minutes is found to be significantly related to the state of the economy, notably real GDP growth, and changes in the fed funds rate. However, the relationship between content and macroeconomic conditions changes after 1993 when minutes are made public with a lag. Both content indicators also suggest substantive changes in the content of FOMC minutes since the 1950s in terms of the FOMC's dovishness or hawkishness.     

A note on the time inconsistency of strategic trade policy

In a simple three-stage model of an international Cournot duopoly, optimal strategic trade policy is shown to be time inconsistent. If the domestic government first announces a production subsidy, firms then irrevocably commit resources to R&D, and finally play their output game, there is an incentive for the government to revise its ex ante optimal policy once R&D decisions have been made. If private agents anticipate this revision and if the government does not have the power to commit itself to the ex ante optimal policy, a credibility constraint has to be imposed.     

Are Antidumping Duties for Sale? Case‐Level Evidence on the Grossman‐Helpman Protection for Sale Model

Do contributions to politicians affect trade policy? To examine this question, we have compiled a new, unique database containing information on political donations by the specific firms and labor organizations that have petitioned for antidumping protection from imports, as well as data on the outcomes of their requests. Using an empirical framework based on the 1994 “protection for sale” model, we examine the relationship between antidumping decisions and political activism. Our results indicate that money does matter. We find that politically active petitioners are more likely to receive protection and that antidumping duty rates tend to be higher for that group. In addition, the relationship between the import penetration ratio and duties imposed depends on whether or not petitioners are politically active—antidumping duties are positively correlated with the import penetration ratio for politically inactive petitioners but negatively correlated for politically active petitioners, consistent with the Grossman‐Helpman model's predictions.     

贵州省农村金融发展与农村经济增长关系的实证分析

本文以农村金融与经济增长相关理论为基础,阐述贵州省农村金融发展和经济增长现状,根据1978～2009年数据,通过协整检验说明贵州省农村金融发展农村经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,并建立VAR模型来考察金融相关率变动与第一产业值之间的动态影响关系。实证分析表明,与经济增长速度相比,贵州省农村金融发展程度相对滞后,贵州农村经济增长对农村金融发展的影响要大于金融发展对经济增长的影响,农村金融发展对经济增长的促进作用不明显。     

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.     

环境规制、金融发展与企业技术创新

文章利用中国A股制造业上市公司2008年到2017年的数据,运用面板固定效应模型,实证分析了环境规制对企业技术创新的影响,并探讨了金融发展在其中所起到的重要作用。研究表明:环境规制与企业技术创新之间呈现非线性的倒U型关系,而金融发展并没有对企业技术创新起到正向促进作用。调节效应方面,金融发展正向调节了环境规制对企业技术创新的影响。文章还进行了调节效应的机制检验和企业性质异质性分析。在此基础上,文章提出把握环境规制强度、完善企业技术创新融资机制体制等政策建议。     

服务外包、农业投资及其替代效应——兼论农户是否必然是农业的投资主体

不同于以往从农户主体角度讨论诱导农业生产性投资的传统思路,文章从分工理论的视角出发,分析农业服务外包与生产性投资之间可能存在的替代关系,试图为中国小农引入现代生产要素及其投资选择提供一种新思路。基于广东阳山县的农户跟踪调查数据,选用Probit和Tobit模型的分析结果表明：农业服务外包与农户生产性投资行为之间存在显著的替代效应。具体而言,农业服务外包水平增加10%,农户进行生产性投资的概率降低3.21%,生产性投资总额降低29.24%。采用工具变量法再次验证了这一替代效应。异质性分析显示,该替代关系会随着种植规模的增大而减弱。文章的政策含义是：充分发挥农业服务外包市场的迂回投资功能,以外部投资替代农户的直接投资行为,从而将小农融入现代农业发展。为此,有必要反思和调整农村信贷政策,并适时制定面向新型农业服务经营主体发展的金融支持策略。     

The role of the Deutsche Bundesbank in the European System of Central Banks

This article lists the main functions and tasks of the Eurosystem NCBs in general and of the Bundesbank in particular. The bulk of these activities is related to monetary policy, payment systems and financial stability. Furthermore, this article addresses the question whether the degree of decentralisation prevailing in the Eurosystem is appropriate. General evaluation criteria such as monetary policy efficiency, the ability to act, transparency and cost efficiency do not give a clear-cut answer because they point in opposite directions and a definite weighting mechanism is not available. Looking therefore more closely at the historical development of the German Central Bank System and the U.S. Federal Reserve System, a tendency can be observed over time towards strengthening of the central office. Nevertheless, the main motive for these developments, namely improving the ability to act, does not seem to be of such importance in the European case: fears of possible inertia in the monetary-policy decision process seem to be unfounded because the respective decision-making bodies have always been able to take decisions quickly.     

Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open economy: A state space modelling approach

Do interest rate differentials smoothly mirror the changes in the exchange rate between a small open economy and a large emerging market economy? The literature provides conflicting views on the validity of the uncovered interest parity condition (UIP), including its size and factors influencing the risk premium. We examine the validity of the UIP condition between Nepal and India using time-series data covering the period 1989 – 2019. A state space modelling approach based on the Kalman filter analysis is applied to simulate the risk premium. We find that the UIP condition does not hold for the Nepalese Rupee. A time-varying persistent negative risk premium that dominantly explains interest rate differentials is, instead, found. These findings imply that Nepalese residents prefer to hold foreign assets and continually expect future devaluations of the domestic currency. These present obstacles to developing domestic financial markets and the implementation of a market oriented monetary policy.     

Does Manager Turnover Improve Firm Performance? Evidence from Dutch Soccer, 1986–2004

This research examines the impact of manager turnover on firm performance using information from the Dutch soccer league in the period 1986–2004. The main advantage of using sports data is that both manager characteristics and decisions and firm outcomes are directly observable. Both difference-in-difference and 2SLS estimates suggest no statistically significant improvements in performance after manager turnover, whereas previous research based on publicly traded firm data has found positive but very small effects of manager turnover on performance. The estimates confirm previous research using soccer data. In addition, estimates suggest that manager quality does not seem to matter in predicting turnover. These estimates are compared and contrasted with studies using publicly traded firm data and studies using soccer data.     

山东省金融结构与经济增长关系实证研究

金融发展与经济增长的关系一直受到学者的广泛关注,但有关金融结构与经济增长效应的研究却相对滞后.相比较金融规模而言,金融结构更能反映金融业的功能和效率且金融结构的优化对经济增长更具有推动作用.文章基于协整理论对山东省经济增长与金融结构的关系进行了实证研究,研究结果表明:山东省金融结构与经济增长存在长期协整关系,且贷款结构与经济增长存在双向因果关系.但山东省经济增长与融资结构演进之间并不存在因果关系,银行集中度变化并未构成经济增长的原因.     

Target Financial Reporting Quality and M&A Deals that Go Bust*

This study investigates the role of financial reporting quality in merger and acquisition (M&A) deals that are ultimately terminated (i.e., go bust). If a target is a U.S. publicly traded company, an acquirer’s initial assessment of the potential benefits associated with the acquisition of the company is based on publicly available information. Generally, the acquirer obtains limited private information from the target prior to announcing the deal, but engages in transactional due diligence after signing the acquisition agreement to affirm that the financial reporting warranties made by the target are accurate. We construct a low‐quality financial reporting score based on measures prior research identifies as being associated with less reliable, less relevant, and less precise financial reporting. We find that acquirers offer higher premiums for targets with low‐quality financial reporting. However, we also find that low‐quality financial reporting increases the likelihood of deal renegotiation, and contributes to the probability of deals going bust. We document that failed targets are more likely to restate their financial statements after the announcement of the deal, supporting our conjecture that low‐quality financial reporting contributes to deals being terminated. Our research develops a new measure of low‐quality financial reporting, documents that the measure is related to M&A deal outcomes and financial restatements, and provides insights into the consequences of M&A transactional due diligence.     

Financial Development,Financial Structure,and the Growth Effect of Monetary Policy: International Evidence

This paper investigates how financial development and financial structure affect the growth effect of monetary policy using panel data from 49 countries over the period 1980–2014. We find robust evidence that financial development has a significantly negative impact on the growth effect of monetary policy. We also find that the growth effect of monetary policy tends to be more pronounced as the financial structure of a country becomes more market-based. These results not only add interesting new evidence to the recent literature on the growth effects of monetary policy, but also provide some important insights into the financial determinants of monetary policy effects on economic growth, which have largely been ignored in the previous literature.     

Bank competition and monetary policy

There is an apparent theoretical discrepancy between the effects of monetary policy shocks on economies with differently competitive banking sectors. We employ cross-country data to investigate this hypothesis with two different approaches. First, using aggregate data we analyze the correlation between two indices: (i) a cumulative impulse response function providing an index of the effect of monetary policy shocks; and (ii) Panzar and Rosse's H-statistic as an index of the state of bank competition. Second, using disaggregated data we regress bank lending on the interaction of bank competition and monetary policy shocks. The first approach does not provide any evidence of a relationship between monetary policy shocks and bank competition. However, the second approach suggests that competition in the banking industry leads to smaller monetary policy effects on bank lending.     

Will monetary policy affect energy security? Evidence from Asian countries

This paper uses the System Generalized Moments (SYS-GMM) method to empirically analyze the data of 16 Asian countries from 2000 to 2019, and finds the impact of monetary policy on energy security. We conclude that the real interest rate, total reserve and exchange rate all have a positive impact on energy security, that is, when these three indicators decline, the risk of energy security increases, this reminds policymakers to pay close attention to the trend of energy security when implementing loose monetary policy. In addition, we also found that the relationship between monetary policy and energy security increased significantly after the 2008 financial crisis, and the more developed the economy is, the more likely it is to encounter energy security challenges brought about by changes in monetary policy. Overall, our evidences provide useful experience for the literature related to energy security.     

Business Strategy,Financial Reporting Irregularities,and Audit Effort

This study examines whether clients' business strategies are a factor in determining the occurrence of financial reporting irregularities and the level of audit effort. We use the organizational strategy theory of Miles and Snow to develop a comprehensive measure of business strategy using publicly available data. We find that Miles and Snow's Prospector strategy is more likely to be involved in financial reporting irregularities and generally requires greater audit effort. The business strategy measure also appears to capture client business risk and provides incremental explanatory power beyond the individual measures of client complexity or risk used in traditional audit fee models. We contribute to the literature by constructing a replicable business strategy measure and identifying organizational business strategy as an important ex ante determinant of financial reporting irregularities and levels of audit effort. Our results suggest that investigating how audits can be improved to reduce financial reporting irregularities among Prospector clients is an important area for audit practice and future research.     

Do Shareholders Fight for Firm Value or Market Value in Emerging Markets? The Mediating Effect of Board Structure Dynamics on Dividend Policy Decision

The paper examines the mediating effect of board structure dynamics on the relationship between dividend payout and shareholders’ wealth at the firm level and market level. Panel regression models are used by applying data from 27 listed firms in Ghana between 2010 and 2017. We find that board structure dynamics have a direct effect on shareholders’ wealth at both levels. However, the results reveal new evidence that board structure dynamics play a mediating role on the relationship between dividend policy decision and shareholders’ wealth only at the market level. We find that independent directors and CEO duality significantly reduce market value of shareholders through dividend payout decision. However, independent directors and longer CEO tenure in office mediate a positive effect on the relationship between dividend policy and shareholders’ wealth at the market level. Thus, the mediating effect of board structure dynamics, particularly independent directors and CEO tenure, are important in predicting a positive relationship between dividend policy and shareholders’ wealth at the market level than at the firm level. Therefore, regulatory bodies and investors should provide strong board structure dynamics that serve as a mediating mechanism for prudent dividend policy decisions that add value to shareholders’ wealth.