Decentralized Taxation and the Size of Government: Evidence from Swiss State and Local Governments

According to the Leviathan Model, fiscal federalism is a binding constraint on revenue‐maximizing government. The competitive pressure of fiscal federalism reduces public sector size, as compared to unitary states. This study uses panel data of Swiss cantons from 1980 to 1998 to empirically analyze the effect of different instruments on government revenue and its structure. Because of the considerable tax autonomy of sub‐national Swiss governments, it is possible to investigate different mechanisms by which fiscal federalism may influence government size. The results indicate that tax exporting has a revenue‐expanding effect; whereas, tax competition favors a smaller size of government. Fragmentation has no robust effect on the size of government revenue for Swiss cantons. The overall effect of revenue decentralization leads to fewer tax revenues but higher user charges. Thus, revenue decentralization favors a smaller size of government revenue and shifts government revenue from taxes to user charges.     

The First Great Whale Extinction: The End of the Bowhead Whale in the Eastern Arctic

In this paper we argue that the bowhead whale stock resident off the east coast of Greenland was hunted to the brink of extinction by 1828 due to the rapid increase in British productivity levels after 1750. A delay-difference recruitment model is used to reconstruct the size of the whale population and establish the chronology of its demise. A simulation model is used to determine the role played by subsidy policies, climate change, and international competition in the extinction.     

电影产业政策导向:政府少做,市场多做

2014年10月27日,上海电影工作座谈会召开.会上正式发布了由市委宣传部、市文广局等九部门联合制定的《关于促进上海电影发展的若干政策》,从政府的介入度、企业的集聚度、作品的鲜亮度和政策的公平度出发,出台了涵盖财政、税收、金融、教育与人才、土地等七项具体政策,对上海电影的发展将产生极大的作用.当然,政策的执行与效果还有待观察与评估.“政府少做,市场多”做应该成为未来电影产业政策实施的基本导向.     

Government Expenditures and Revenues: Evidence from Asymmetric Modeling

In this article, we examine the relationship between U.S. federal revenues and expenditures while relaxing the assumption of a symmetric adjustment process underlying the conventional cointegration and error correction model. Threshold autoregression and momentum threshold autoregression models are used to ascertain the empirical link between the two variables of the budgetary process. Our results suggest that revenues and expenditures are cointegrated and that the adjustment process of the budgetary disequilibrium is asymmetric. The application of the asymmetric error correction model indicates that revenues and expenditures respond to the long-run requirements of the budgetary balance only when the budget is worsening.     

公共服务、政府透明度与公众对政府的信任：影响机理与经验证据

公众对政府的信任关系到政府合法性、社会稳定性和法制有效性。近年来,很多国家面临公众信任政府程度日益下降的窘境。为了改变这种局面,一些国家意图通过建设电子政务来改善公共服务、提高政府透明度,进而增强公众对政府的信任。然而,这种举措可以提高公众对政府的信任吗?本文首先剖析公共服务、政府透明度影响公众信任政府程度的机理,然后根据中国2010年300个地级市电子政务评估数据,采取结构方程模型进行检验。结果发现,公众对政府的信任与公共服务正相关,公共服务越好,公众越信任政府;公众对政府的信任与政府透明度正相关,政府透明度越高,公众越信任政府。研究还发现,公共服务还通过影响政府透明度而间接影响公众对政府的信任。本研究对公共管理改革具有一定的应用参考价值。     

政府控制、政府干预与管理者自利——基于财务困境视角的经验研究

本文以中国上市公司为样本,研究政府控制、政府干预对财务困境公司管理者自利行为的影响。研究发现,政府干预程度较低的地区,发生财务困境时管理者明显节制了自身的自利行为;但在政府干预较严重的地区,财务困境公司在职消费的倾向加重。在非政府控制的公司中,发生财务困境时管理者没有收敛其自利行为;与之相比,政府为实际控制人的财务困境公司在职消费与超常薪酬显著降低。上述结果表明,制度环境层面上的政府干预干扰了公司外部治理机制,从而加重了困境公司管理者代理问题,而在政府控制的困境公司,管理者则面临着较强的制度规范和行政约束。     

Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State

A growing literature finds evidence that flood risk salience varies over time, spiking directly following a flood and then falling off individuals' cognitive radar in the following years. In this article, we provide new evidence of salience exploiting a hurricane cluster impacting Florida that was preceded and followed by periods of unusual calm. Utilizing residential property sales across the state from 2002 through 2012, our main estimate finds a salience impact of ?8%, on average. The salience effect persists when we base estimation only on spatial variation in prices to limit confounding from other simultaneous changes due to shifting hedonic equilibria over time. These effects range from housing prices decreases of 5.4–12.3% depending on the year of sale. Understanding flood risk salience has important implications for flood insurance and disaster policy, the benefits transfer literature, and, more broadly, our understanding of natural disaster resilience. JEL Classification: Q51, Q54, R21     

Economic Freedom and Exercise: Evidence from State Outcomes

Exercise is an important part of a healthy lifestyle and influences a variety of health outcomes. Regions vary in their levels of exercise due to geography, climate, culture, and policy. The extent to which a country's policies are consistent with economic freedom has been found to be positively associated with greater participation in physical activity. We empirically investigate the relationship between economic freedom and exercise across U.S. states. Contrary to the cross-country results, we find that states with higher levels of economic freedom have lower rates of participation in exercise.     

Farm Household Responses to Government Policies: Evidence from West Java

Few micro level analyses have been undertaken in Indonesia of rural households' responses to government policies, and of household characteristics and endowments. Most studies of rural household behaviour in Indonesia have analysed the consumption, production and labour supply aspects separately, ignoring the complex interrelations among farm production, farm profit, household consumption and family labour supply. In this study, the complex nature of rural household production and consumption decisions is analysed by applying a farm household model to cross-sectional data from 241 households in six villages of West Java. The model incorporates multiple crops, different wage levels for males and females, and non-agricultural employment.     

Determinants of Government Aid to Katrina Survivors: Evidence from Survey Data

We analyze survey data from Mississippi coastal communities where Katrina made its final landfall. Logistic regressions indicate that government aid is helpful in dealing with one- to two-month economic disruption and long-term rebuilding but is less helpful with regard to short-term rebuilding and mitigating longer-term disruption. Our analysis (including a basic risk assessment) finds evidence that individuals receiving government aid and/or having a disability predisaster are likely to incur severe economic hardship postdisaster and that individuals with greater predisaster economic and/or social network capital seem to be less at risk. Our results underscore the importance of housing in the resumption of basic economic activity.     

地方政府财政支出政策效果差异化分析——基于四川省面板数据

基于四川省1995—2006年面板数据,利用工具变量评估财政支出乘数模型并借鉴分位数模型思想,发现财政支出政策不利于缩小区域内经济发展差距,即对于经济发展水平越高的地方,财政支出效果越好,原因在于其资本利用能力,即财政支出对投资的溢出效应,造成第二产业增长幅度不同,最终呈现出财政支出效果不同.认识这一点对于在经济处于新常态背景下,有利于优化开发财政产业政策的作用空间.     

西部少数民族地区农村收入不平等分析——基于云南红河州农村住户数据

本文基于云南红河州农户调查数据,采用多层统计分析方法对西部少数民族地区农村收入不平等进行分析。研究发现,收入不平等不仅存在于乡镇之间,还存在内部家庭之间;地理地势是影响农户在乡镇之间收入差异的重要因素,而土地、种植结构、资本投入、教育、工资比重、负担率、培训、非农产业参与率反映了农户之间的个体差异。研究结果表明,发展区域特色经济、实现农业产业化经营是减少收入不平等的重要途径。     

利率期限结构曲线的估计方法——基于上交所国债的实证分析

本文系统地论述了各种利率期限结构曲线估计方法的原理．提出了估计方法需满足的原则,并采用上海证券交易所的国债市场数据,比较了四种主要估计方法的拟合效果,提出了适合我国债券市场的利率期限结构估计方法。     

State Firearm Sales and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Firearm Background Checks

The FBI has reported the number of monthly firearm background checks in every state since November 1998. This article uses data on background checks at the state level to explore the relationship between guns and crime. The background checks capture an individual's intention to purchase a firearm and explain 96% of the variation in gun manufacturing at a national level. Fixed effect negative binomial regressions show a positive, but insignificant, relationship between background checks and violent crimes. Property crimes are negatively related to background checks and statistically significant at the 10% level. The results suggest that gun control policies should be coupled with other initiatives if policy makers intend to reduce gun‐related crime.     

Imperfect Competition in German Food Retailing: Evidence from State Level Data

An increase in the level of retail concentration in food markets across Europe has raised concerns about the implications of retail dominance in the food supply. This paper measures oligopoly and oligopsony market power in the German food retail industry and incorporate specific details about the German meat market and the European BSE crisis. In this paper, simultaneous estimates of the degree of oligopoly and oligopsony market power in the German food retail industry are derived by applying a set of monthly state level retail beef and pork marketing data in the federal state of Hessen, Germany, from 1995–2000. Results strongly suggest evidence of retail oligopoly and oligopsony power. Lerner index estimates indicate retail market power accounts for 0.5% to 11% of the retail unit margins of beef and pork.

Brazilian children and the economic crisis: Evidence from the State of São Paulo

This paper briefly reviews the socio-economic conditions and the situation of children in Brazil during 1960–1980, drawing on data for the country as a whole and concentrating on the policies of the 1964–1973 years. It also examines more recent developments that led to the current crisis as well as its overall social impact on employment, food consumption and prices, and government social expenditures. The possible effects of the crisis on the welfare of children in the State of São Paulo are examined in detail. Finally, the paper reviews the government policy for protecting the poor and vulnerable in general and children in particular.