Can bribes buy protection against international competition?

This paper explores the association between corruption and trade policy. A non-technical theoretical framework first outlines the effects of corruption on non-tariff barriers at the political and bureaucratic level. Both parts have incentives to accept bribes in exchange for increasing barriers. These considerations include politicians’ re-election motives, implying that free information may weaken the association between corruption and trade barriers. I employ panel data on corruption and non-tariff barriers in three periods 1995–2005. The results show that corruption tends to lead to higher non-tariff barriers. The effectiveness of corruption in buying barriers varies with the degree of press freedom and GDP per capita.     

Local Economic Performance and Election Outcomes

This paper uses a logit model to test whether voters will alter their support for incumbents in state level elections, specifically gubernatorial and state house and senate elections, when local (i.e., county) economic conditions are observed. The results signify that voters do hold the incumbent party responsible for economic conditions. Furthermore, voters tend to place more emphasis on unemployment levels than on real personal income indicating that incumbent politicians might want to engage in policies that put people to work rather than on policies that raise income. The results also suggest that voters did not hold their state house and senate representative as responsible for local economic conditions as they did the governor.     

Institutional checks and balances and the political control of the money supply

The Nordhaus hypothesis about the political business cycle assertsthat elected politicians have incentives to expand the moneysupply prior to elections to stimulate the economy and therebyengineer their re-election. Central bank independence is widelyregarded as an institutional solution to this problem. However,this solution works only if central bankers are not perfectagents of their political principals, perhaps because they areconservative (more inflation-averse). This artide proposes analternative solution: political business cycles may be obstructedby institutional checks and balances. The analysis applies tothe Deutsche Bundesbank and has implications for the institutionalstructure of the future European Central Bank.     

Trade and competition policies: concordia discors>

In a simple model of trade and competition policies we showthat the abolition of trade restrictions may lead to governmentsindependently choosing more competitive competition policies.Subsequent co-ordination of competition policy involves encouragingless competitive behaviour than when such policies are not co-ordinatedand may involve disharmonisation, in a sense made clear in thepaper. Adding a third country, simulation results indicate thatnon-member concerns about customs union formation may be well-founded,particularly when the union goes beyond mere trade policy co-ordination(which may be needed to make it attractive to members in thefirst place).     

The Impact of Legislative Tenure and Seniority on General Election Success: Econometric Evidence from U.S. House Races

The last four election-cycles in the U.S. House of Representatives (2004–2010) witnessed two shifts in political party control of that legislative body—from the Republicans to the Democrats in 2006 and then back to the Republicans in 2010. Nevertheless, U.S. House incumbents of both parties running for re-election tended to enjoy a sizeable advantage over their general-election challengers during the period. The advantage is even greater for incumbents who are members of the leadership, key committees, or have lengthy tenure. Our results show that, ceteris paribus, membership in the House leadership is worth on average 6.8 percentage points towards the incumbent’s expected vote-share, and that membership in either of the two top committees is worth an additional 1.3 such percentage points. A ten-term incumbent can expect another 2.0 percentage points of vote share. Lastly, our results also indicate the existence of a wave effect favoring Democratic incumbents in 2006, and a slightly smaller wave effect favoring Republican incumbents in 2010.     

The political economy of services trade liberalization: a case for international regulatory cooperation?

Little progress has been made since the creation of the WTOon expanding and deepening the coverage of services liberalizationcommitments. This paper identifies and discusses five hypothesesthat may explain the absence of dynamism: (i) technologicalchanges allowing ever more services to be traded cross-borderunaffected by policy; (ii) strong incentives to pursue liberalizationon an autonomous basis (unilaterally); (iii) perceptions thatbilateral or regional cooperation are a good substitute forthe WTO; (iv) standard political-economy factors, such as adjustmentcosts and resistance by incumbents to erosion of rents; and(v) concerns that the WTO will affect the ability of regulatorsto enforce national norms. We argue that all of these explanationsplay a role, and that some of these factors significantly impedethe scope for reciprocal exchanges of ‘concessions’—theengine of WTO negotiations.     

Incumbency and Distributive Politics: Intergovernmental Transfers in Mexico

In this article, the objective is to focus on the likelihood that politicians will rely on intergovernmental transfers to pursue political ambition. In what circumstances are incumbents more likely to rely on transfers to win votes, than to reward core supporters? How are constraints (introduced to ensure that politicians rely on predetermined formulae which reduce the incentive to design transfers to win re‐election) likely to influence “distributive politics?” Predictions in this article are tested with reference to intergovernmental transfers to 31 Mexican states between 2004 and 2012.     

Public investment and reelection prospects in developed countries

A growing body of literature suggests that office‐motivated politicians manipulate fiscal policy instruments to enhance their reelection prospects. This article directly examines the impact of fiscal policy on incumbents’ reelection prospects by focusing on the impact of public investment. This impact is estimated using a panel of 20 countries belonging in Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development over the period 1972–1999. We find that the level of public investment in the earlier years of an incumbent's term in office improves their reelection prospects, whereas election year manipulation of public investment is neither rewarded nor punished. Our evidence also suggests that, after controlling for the level of deficit and public investment, the level of government revenue both in the election and nonelection years does not seem to affect reelection prospects. Moreover, we find that deficit creation during elections and in nonelection years are not rewarded by voters.     

Notes and Communications, Horses for Courses: Why Europe Should Not Harmonise its Book Policies

European countries have similar cultural goals for books. The most common are the promotion of reading and the production of (literary) books (of a diverse nature). The extent to which the free market can achieve the cultural goals is uncertain and differs across countries. In cases where the free market does not achieve the goals or politicians do not want to accept uncertainty, a policy instrument is needed. Commonly used instruments in Europe include the fixed book price, subsidies, libraries, and lower VAT. We demonstrate that differences among European countries matter and that harmonisation of European book policies is not a good idea.     

从产业政策到产业链政策:“链时代”产业发展的战略选择

产业政策的诞生、演进、转型、创新和发展受政府职能转变、国际规则对接、时代发展变化、企业需求调整等因素的影响。在构建新发展格局背景下,这些因素也在发生变化,要求产业政策进行适应性调整和升级。从全球范围来看,产业政策制定正在成为一项不可忽视的全球现象,国际产业竞争正在从产品竞争升级到产业链群之间的竞争,主要经济体纷纷出台政策措施加强对产业链供应链的“国家干预”,产业链成为世界各国战略竞争主战场。我国在推动产业政策转型创新的同时,需要更加关注实施产业链政策,增强产业政策制定的“链式思维”和系统思维,尽快制定更具系统性和更有针对性的产业链政策方案,“强基、韧链、优企、提效”,统筹推进产业基础高级化、产业链安全稳定、竞争力提升和现代化升级。     

Social Services and The GATS: Key Issues and Concerns

Concerns have been voiced about liberalizing social service such as health and education under the WTO’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), and how this may undermine national sovereignty and autonomy in social policy making. This paper indicates that these concerns mainly stem from misunderstandings and lack of information about the GATS. It tries to dispel unwarranted fears by highlighting the GATS framework and commitment structure and explaining how countries can retain their autonomy on policies concerning public services, under the GATS. The paper also points out certain problem areas that are due to ambiguities and weaknesses in the GATS framework. It suggests the need to strengthen the GATS framework and address these problems in the ongoing GATS 2000 negotiations.     

Grazing into the future: Policy making for South African communal rangelands

This article reports on a symposium held at Fort Hare University in July 1998. Its objective was to assess the current state of knowledge on communal rangelands and identify issues important for policy making. This was done in the light of concerns about recent policy reform. Uncontrolled access to resources and the lack of services were identified as the main constraints on socio‐economic development in the communal rangelands, and inadequate forage during the dry season was recognised as a general constraint on livestock production, irrespective of mean annual rainfall. Government policies must recognise these issues and the social and ecological heterogeneity of communal rangelands in South Africa. The conclusion with the most far‐reaching implications, however, was that degradation has occurred in some, but not all, communal rangelands and is most likely to occur in arid areas. This finding is in direct contrast to the current base for agricultural policies in South Africa, which assumes that livestock have little impact on rangelands.     

Price policy and agricultural export performance in Jamaica

Jamaica experienced one of the longest uninterrupted periods of negative growth among LDCs in the 1970s. Agricultural exports led this decline with an unusually poor growth performance, exacerbating foreign exchange shortages. Commodity board pricing policies played a strong role in penalizing these exports. Further, board policies appear to be inefficient in either maximizing profits or foreign exchange. Implicit and unstated objectives of board policies are discussed. Supply functions show that farmers do react positively to price changes, contrary to board assumptions. Beneficiaries of this penalizing price policy are identified and an important implication for foreign aid policy is underscored.     

Policy Responses to Balance-of-Payments Crises: The Role of Elections

Governments have a number of policy tools that can be used to address pressure on the balance of payments, threatening an undesirable decline in the relative value of the national currency. They can: (1) sell reserves, (2) raise interest rates, (3) impose capital controls, (4) apply trade restrictions, or (5) depreciate the currency. While researchers typically analyze these policies in isolation from one another, we treat them as a menu of options available to election-minded politicians. We analyze the use of these five policy responses to payments difficulties for a large sample of countries since the early 1970s. We argue that governments try to minimize political costs by adopting less transparent policies first and only moving to more visible policies as necessary, delaying the most visible and politically costly policies until after elections. The evidence is consistent with these claims: governments are more likely to draw down reserves and impose capital controls before other options. If these policies do not succeed, they tend to raise interest rates. If further action is needed, they delay devaluations and trade protection until after elections.     

A Markov‐switching analysis of Nigeria's business cycles: Are election cycles important?

The study examines Nigeria's business cycles between October 1998 and October 2017 and ascertains the importance of general elections cycles in engendering cyclical fluctuations in different measures of business cycles. A framework based on political business cycles theory was estimated with a dynamic Markov‐switching regression technique. The study finds that election cycles are adequate in predicting cycles in food prices, non‐farm prices, exports, and imports in Nigeria while a significant effect of election cycles on the stock market, general price level, and exchange rate could not be established. The study concludes that cycles in food, non‐farm prices, imports, and exports can be predicted by future general elections while re‐election seeking behaviour of politicians lacks the power to influence stock market performance and exchange rate in Nigeria. Hence, artificial business cycles that result primarily from politicians manipulating certain fiscal tools targeted at stimulating the economy only to increase the re‐election chances could be minimized if monetary and fiscal institutions are strong, effective, and truly independent. This will ensure that policies are not manipulated between elections by politicians but are well targeted at achieving a set of long‐term developmental goals.     

Infrastructure policy in Asian developing countries

The urgent need for very large increases in investment in infrastructure in most developing countries in Asia is very clear. This paper surveys the challenges facing policymakers in the region. Nearly all of the main concerns for policymakers in Asia in addressing the global infrastructure imbalance are on the supply side. In particular, there are seven related supply-side issues that are of high priority for policymakers: selection and preparation of appropriate projects, finance, pricing, access, governance and management, policy and regulatory policies, and climate change. Governments and utilities need to improve their policies and performance to build confidence among stakeholders. Access to infrastructure services needs to be improved so that consumers will support realistic pricing policies, and investors will be encouraged to provide finance for infrastructure sectors.     

Accounting Policy Disclosures and Analysts' Forecasts

Using an international sample, I investigate whether the extent of firms' disclosure of their accounting policies in the annual report is associated with properties of analysts' earnings forecasts. Controlling for firm‐ and country‐level variables, I find that the level of accounting policy disclosure is significantly negatively related to forecast dispersion and forecast error. In particular, I find that accounting policy disclosures are incrementally useful to analysts over and above all other annual report disclosures. These findings suggest that accounting policy disclosures reduce uncertainty about forecasted earnings. I find univariate but not multivariate support for the hypothesis that accounting policy disclosures are especially helpful to analysts in environments where firms can choose among a larger set of accounting methods.     

Optimal Exchange Intervention in an Inflation Targeting Regime: Some Cautionary Tales

Devaluations and fiscal retrenchments coming from developed countries are buffeting less developed countries. Many emerging market countries have adopted inflation targeting as “best practice,” but now they are being advised to enhance their inflation targeting regimes with foreign exchange intervention. Here we use a DSGE model to tell some cautionary tales about this advice. A Taylor rule guides interest rate setting, while foreign exchange interventions are used as a second tool of monetary policy. These interventions are effective in our model since domestic and key currency bonds are imperfect substitutes. We derive optimal (Ramsey) intervention policies in response to foreign devaluations and fiscal retrenchments, and find that they are rather complex. So, we compare the optimal responses to policies that simply smooth real or nominal exchange rate movements. Our results suggest that discretion may be the better part of valor: pure inflation targeting may come closer to the optimal policy than exchange rate smoothing. A secondary result may also be of some interest: foreign exchange interventions have a stronger impact on inflation and output in an inflation targeting regime than do sterilized interventions; the Taylor rule augments the effects of a given intervention.     

Promoting farm/non‐farm linkages for employment of the poor in South Africa: A research agenda focused on small‐scale farms and agroindustry

This article presents a policy research agenda for the promotion of farm/non‐farm linkages in South Africa. Our premise is that promoting the participation of small farms and small agroindustrial businesses in these linkages will have a strong impact on employment and income for the poor. We argue that there is potential for growth in linkages. The first question of the policy research agenda concerns the current status of linkages, and we note the dearth of research on this. The second question concerns the constraints on and prospects for promoting linkages from the demand side, and the third question treats the same concerns from the supply side. The fourth question is rooted in the duality in South Africa's non‐farm and farm sectors, and asks whether, and how, small and large agroindustrial businesses and farms will compete or relate in ‘business linkages’ that can benefit intersectoral linkages. The final question concerns the impacts of and alternatives for policies and programmes to spur linkages.     

Rivalry for export promotions

This paper investigates rivalry for export promotions among seven industrial countries. The hypothesis in this paper is concerned with the trade-income relationship, both intra-country and inter-country, viewed from the perspective of strategic trade policy theory. A system of seemingly unrelated equations estimated by Zellner's iterative efficient method yields mixed relationships. The results provide important policy implications for reconciling trade policies among the countries.