Explaining the Rain: The Rise and Decline of Nations after 25 Years

In the quarter century since the publication of Mancur Olson's Rise and Decline of Nations, a large literature has evolved testing the central hypothesis regarding Olson's thesis on institutional sclerosis. These tests have taken the form of both econometric regression analysis involving a sample of various nations and detailed narrative case studies of specific nations. Tests have appeared in both economics and political science journals as well as in collected volumes and independent books, performed primarily by authors from America and Europe. A review of over 50 separate works reveals that, on the whole, the theory of institutional sclerosis is generally but certainly not universally supported. No systematic bias in favor of or opposition to Olson is found to have arisen on the basis of methodology, publication outlet, or authorship location.     

On the decomposition of the harberger tax incidence equation

Conclusions This paper has re-examined an important area in tax incidence analysis: how the famous Harberger equation can and should be decomposed. The well-known and generally accepted decomposition scheme proposed by Mieszkowski has recently been challenged byH-H, with potential ramifications concerning the significance of the general equilibrium approach pioneered by Harberger. It has been shown that this challenge has been misplaced:H-H failed to appreciate the equal yield requirement in the Mieszkowski scheme and, consequently, their proposed method of decomposition is of little economic content. This analysis reaffirms the validity and usefulness of theH-M approach.This paper was written when the author was on the faculty of Louisiana State University. The views expressed herein are his and do not necessarily reflect those of the IMF or its staff.     

Making America poorer: The cost of labor law Morgan O. Reynolds Washington,DC: Cato Institute, 1987, 218 pp.

Conclusion None of the above suggests that Reynolds is incorrect in finding monopoly power in unions; neither is it suggested that labor relations law should not be considered as one source of that power. Reynolds is correct on both counts. However, his study is incomplete. There are additional sources which should also be identified and evaluated.Making America Poorer presents viewpoints held by some economists, some business groups, and some segments of the public. These views will be part of any national debate. The author is grateful to Jack E. Adams for many helpful comments.     

试议布什主义的兴衰

布什主义是美国学者和媒体习惯性地对现任美国总统布什的治国方略的概括，它是随着9·11事件的爆发、美国开始直面恐怖主义而瓜熟蒂落的。布什主义以单边主义和先发制人为核心思想，其在转化为美国现实的外交政策的过程中对大国关系和国际政治经济的走势产生了巨大影响，而关国深陷伊战泥潭、国际恐怖主义不灭反猖的残酷现实证明目前的布什主义已经走到了几近名存实亡的境地。面对国内外的巨大压力，布什政府不得不对自己的外交政策作出了些许调整，可以想见布什主义的最终命运不容乐观。     

The Rise of Multiunit Firms in U.S. Manufacturing

The modern multiunit enterprise has been touted by historians and economic historians as a major and important phase of organizational change and a significant source of growth. However, most studies concerning this phenomenon have been based on a sample of the very largest enterprises. This article utilizes data on a complete sample of firms provided by the pioneering works of Thorp (1924) and Thorp et al. (1941) and the Census Bureau's Enterprise Statistics and other census sources to document and examine the rise of modern multiunit firms in U.S. manufacturing over the twentieth century. The analysis of the data suggests that the modern multiunit firm arose to take advantage of economies of marketing rather than those of scale and scope.     

Politics and economic theory in allied planning for peace, 1944–1945

Abstract

At the beginning of June 1919, a member of the British Delegation at the Paris Peace Conference, the young John Maynard Keynes, gave up hope of anyone listening to his views which were based on economic theory, or to his call for a sensible revision of the peace terms.     

The viennese connection: Alfred schutz and the Austrian school

Conclusion All in all, it seems clear that the Miseskreis must have influenced Schutz significantly, and much more than acknowledged by Wagner. Schutz participated in the seminar not only in the years in which he formed the foundations of his phenomenology, but even before this. After just three years at the university this group of friends and colleagues provided him with a forum of peers interested in the very same problems-the only forum he had, and probably the best he could possibly get, for formulating, developing, and presenting his own ideas. Earlier versions of the paper were presented at the Colloquium on Austrian Economics, New York University, and the Austrian Scholars Conference.     

A pre-history of misesian calculation: The contribution of adolphe thiers

Conclusion Mises’s argument on the impossibility of economic calculation under socialism, first proposed in 1920, has forerunners. One of the early forerunners was Adolphe Thiers in his book De la propiété, which was published in 1848. Thiers understood that he was fighting for the case of the economists against socialists and communists. He wrote a popular book after the socialist revolution of 1848 putting forward an eloquent defense of property as the foundation of society. Although largely neglected, his work is interesting because he based economic argument on a property-rights framework and because he already hinted towards the problem of economic calculation under socialism. The particular force of his argument lies in the refutation of economic calculation under socialism not only on grounds of practicability, but of a theoretical reasoning about the role of property and thus the role of the market and prices for the allocation of goods. Being himself a politician he was compromising in the application of his own principles, which makes especially the last part of his book, On Taxation, contradictory in view of the preceding parts. Thiers’s argument can be interpreted as resulting from the tradition of the natural-law school of the Physiocrats, who could themselves draw on the Catholic tradition of natural law and the discussion of the “just price.” a libertarian think-tank to promote the Austrian School in Germany.     

Tax illusion and savings perception: The case of compulsory loans

Summary Theexplicit specification of a short-run tax illusion effect accompanying compulsory loan levy is introduced, thus enabling its empirical verification and estimation by income group using cross-section data. Consumption-Savings/Savings-composition behaviour and decisions in both the short-run and long term and liquidity/risk-asset preference are dealt with in this context, and three possible forms of the effect are proposed: (a)continuous over, (b)discontinuous over, or (c)discontinuous within income groups, with expected results discussed accordingly. Finally, compulsory loan levy in Israel is discussed and proposed as a valid case for further study.Formerly, Economic Assistant, Economic Planning Authority, State of Israel (1970-71). The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the author's previous employer.     

Recollections of My Career

Teuku Mohamad Daud, a pioneer Indonesian entrepreneur, was born in Perlak, Aceh, in 1920. Educated in Aceh and Jakarta, he joined the fledgling Indonesian National Army (TNI) at the proclamation of independence in 1945. Charged with procuring military equipment for the TNI Sumatra Command based at Bukittinggi, West Sumatra, Mr Daud was forced to finance the procurement by smuggling agricultural commodities, with the help of his uncle, Teuku Abdul Hamid Azwar. In 1947, at the suggestion of Vice President Hatta, Mr Daud and his uncle established Indonesia's first state-owned general trading company, the Central Trading Corporation (CTC, renamed PN Tri Bhakti in 1961, and later PN Panca Niaga), based in Bukittinggi. Mr Daud became a director of CTC while remaining on the TNI staff, and was later President Director until his resignation in 1966. He and several colleagues then established a group of private companies, engaged mainly in construction work.

On 1 October 1996 and again in June 1997, Mr Daud talked with Howard Dick and Thee Kian Wie of the BIES Editorial Board about his experiences in running CTC, both during Indonesia's revolutionary struggle and in the early period of independence, and about his views on the role of government in commerce. References to current government policy relate to the Soeharto administration.     

Recollections of My Careerlections of My Career

Suhadi Mangkusuwondo, Professor Emeritus of the Faculty of Economics at the University of Indonesia (FEUI), was born in Solo, Central Java, in December 1927. After participating in the war of independence, he resumed his secondary education in Malang, completing it in 1949. He then studied economics at the University of Indonesia (UI) and later became a teaching assistant there. Suhadi spent two years doing postgraduate study at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and later obtained a PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. Returning to Indonesia and his teaching post at FEUI, he became editor of the journal Economics and Finance in Indonesia (EKI). He was Head of the R&D Agency in the Department of Trade from 1973 to 1975 and again in 1983-88, and Director General of Foreign Trade from 1975 to 1983. Professor Suhadi served as the Representative of the Government of Indonesia in the Uruguay Round when it was launched in 1986, and since 1992 has been a member of the Eminent Persons Group of the APEC (Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation) forum. His other activities include membership of Indonesia's National Research Council (DRN), and of organisations such as the Regional Advisory Board of the ASEAN Economic Bulletin, the journal of the ASEAN Economic Research Unit of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. He is now also Vice Chairman of the Jakarta-based Trade and Development Institute. On 8 July 1994, Professor Suhadi talked with H.W. Arndt, Hal Hill and Thee Kian Wie about his views on Indonesia's economic development under the New Order, and particularly about trade policy. On 19 September 1995, in a second interview with H.W. Arndt, Mari Pangestu and Thee Kian Wie, he elaborated further on his work at the Ministry of Trade and his participation in the Uruguay Round and the APEC Eminent Persons Group (EPG).     

The determinants of covered margins

Conclusion The empirical evidence of the covered margin regressions tends to corroborate the theoretical analysis of theCM indicator. The hedging and opportunity-cost-of-arbitrage variables, as well as the speculative variable, appear in many cases as significant determinants of the size of the covered margin. This undermines the accuracy of theCM indicator because its accuracy requires that speculation alone heavily dominates the determination ofCM. Furthermore, the view that primitive arbitrage facilities interfere with the ability of arbitrage to restrain covered margins to small values was supported by the examination of the Canadian experience of the 1950's. The author would like to acknowledge the helpful comments of Leland Yeager on previous drafts of this paper. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.     

The Danish agrarian reforms, 1784–1814, and the historians

Abstract

In 1888, Edvard Holm brought out his still much-cited book, Kampen om Landboreformeme i Danmark.¹ By his title, the “conflict over the agrarian reforms”, Holm meant the clash of opinion which preceded and contributed to the reforms initiated under Crown Prince Frederik's de facto regency, beginning in 1784. But the debate begun by Danish landowners, officials, and opinion-makers did not end with the reform era itself. It was continued by Danish historians, who have pursued it with remarkable intensity and no small passion down to the present day.     

II. The farm territories

Abstract

The enquiries into the organization of farm territories in Norway must be based partly upon the study of old records, and partly upon field work. As long as the breach with the past is still a fairly recent occurrence, the field investigations will produce more than simply a record of the visible traces of the past. Of course, this record itself plays a very important part. Features such as characteristic boundary marks, various traces and relics found within the old multiple abode (tun), of holdings which have moved outside it, former balks that are still visible—these are all important pieces in the jigsaw puzzle which must be completed in order to obtain a picture of the ancient organization of the farm territory. But in addition to this, we can make use of the memories of those of the farming population who grew up in earlier times and took part in the daily work and who know of old traditions which were handed down to them by still earlier generations. The younger generations worked alongside the older and carried on the inheritance from them. This is clearly shown in the story about the man who took his young son along to show him the boundaries of the farm. Every time they reached an important marking on the boundary the father gave his son a box on the ear so that the spot should stand out in his memory. One of the Institute's most reliable informants, an old schoolmaster from Sunnmöre, can account for traditions as far back as to the middle of the eighteenth century; he usually confirms his tales with such expressions as: ‘The old man said so, and he got it from grandma’.     

The Rise (and Decline?) of Arab Aid: Generosity and Allocation in the Oil Era

Among non-DAC donors, wealthy Arab states are some of the most prolific contributors of foreign aid. Despite this, relatively little is known about Arab foreign aid. The OECD development database offers a paucity of information, aggregating data for “Arab countries” and “Arab agencies,” without identifying the constituent units of either. A further complication is that Arab donors are not uniformly transparent about their aid efforts, publicizing some of them while keeping other donations secret. In this paper, we advance the state of knowledge of Arab foreign aid in a number of ways. We use AidData to document the trends in reported donations from specific bilateral donors (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) and multilateral agencies (Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa, OPEC’s Fund for International Development, and the Islamic Development Bank). Notably, Arab bilateral donors have given less generously over time with aid levels remaining relatively stable despite skyrocketing national wealth. We explore reasons for this decline, including that Arab donors have: shifted their giving from bilateral to multilateral channels, given less as DAC donors have given more, and increased domestic spending at the expense of foreign aid with a view to safeguarding regime security. In addition, we look at the sectoral allocations of Arab bilateral and multilateral organizations, and compare the aid practices of Arab donors to their DAC counterparts. Finally, we suggest why an exclusive focus on aid commitments is problematic where Arab aid is concerned.     

Origin and rise of the crofter problem in Finland

Abstract

Crofters (Swedish torpare, Finnish torppari) are in Finland and Sweden the peasants whose principal means of subsistence derived from the cultivation of some small part, held in tenancy, of an estate. The crofter paid the bulk of his rent by putting in so many days work on the parent farm.     

Kalecki and Marx on effective demand

Conclusion Whereas Marx and Kalecki shared a broad vision of the capitalist system, the convergence of their theories occurred mainly on the ground of effective demand.Marx furnished Kalecki with the idea that deficiencies in aggregate demand are rooted in the normal workings of the capitalist system, but he did so without providing any theoretical demonstration of this proposition. Kalecki was confident, however, that he had solved Marx's unresolved problems by proving that the equations that determine the level of total output are contained in the scheme of extended reproduction.Whether Marx would have considered Kalecki's solution appropriate for the system inCapital is quite another matter. As explained above, Kalecki shifted the emphasis from the production of surplus value to the realization of surplus value and from the conditions of exploitation to the conditions of the market. It is a change that Marx would have had difficulties in accepting. Indeed, it was precisely his reluctance to follow this route that steered Marx away from an attempt at solving the problem of effective demand; a problem he skirted when he was in the process of formulating his schemes of reproduction.If one adds Kalecki's interest in market prices and his distaste for the labor theory of value, it would be difficult to avoid the conclusion that Kalecki was neither a faithful disciple of Marx nor a single-minded articulator of his economic theories. It has been argued that this was precisely Kalecki's strength [Robinson, 1979, p. 253]: With the light that Sraffa has thrown on the theory of value and Kalecki on the process of realization of the surplus, we can develop a complete system, not ofneo-Marxism but ofintelligible Marxism.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Twenty-Sixth Atlantic Economic Society Conference, October 6–9, 1988, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.     

The entelechies of mercantilism

Daniel Waldenström's debate article in this issue of the SEHR raises several interesting questions for discussion. I will not comment on his criticisms of Swedish economic historians' publishing practice and their international participation; I will state only that I think economic and business historians in the Nordic countries should increase their international activities and their publications in international journals. In my opinion this concerns particularly scholars in my own country, Norway. Waldenström makes, however, several normative assertions about economic history that concern the discipline as a whole, including the guiding principles of the editorial policy of the SEHR. His normative claims about content and the methodological foundations of economic history deserve an answer.     

The transformation of Australian economic and social history

This article reviews the first four books published in a new Australian series entitled ‘Themes in Australian Economic and Social History’. These volumes include: A. Dingle, Aboriginal economy: patterns of experience; R.V. Jackson, The population history of Australia; W. Bate, Victorian gold rushes; A.L. Lougheed, Australia and the world economy. The series is edited by C.B. Schedvin in association with the Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand and is published by McPhee Gribble Publishers, Melbourne. Each attractively presented book is approximately seventy pages long and is priced at $9.99. Further volumes in this series have been commissioned.     

Swedish trade unions and the social democratic party: The formative years

Abstract

The history of labour movements in many countries of the Western world includes a period in which the relationship between the trade-union arm and the political arm undergoes significant change. This formative period is conditioned in an immediate way by the political framework and more generally by the economic and social milieu. In respect of the actors themselves—trade unions and party organisations—latter-day interpreters have frequently regarded developments of union-party relationships as a process in which the unions, to the extent they are successful and true to their character and objectives as trade unions, free themselves from party domination. ¹ The most obvious example is found in the works of the late Professor Selig Perlman, especially his A Theory of the Labor Movement, (New York, 1928). It is recognised here that Perlman did not discuss Swedish developments. The historical fragment which follows is intended to demonstrate that, for the Swedish experience, such an interpretation leaves much to be desired.