Change in the plantation system: American South, 1910-1945

Many questions have not been answered about the tenant plantations in the twentieth century. This paper uses county level data from special plantation censuses taken in 1910 and 1945 to examine changes in the geographic distribution of plantations and how production was organized on them. Although the percentage of land in tenant plantations went down in the South during this period, it increased in some areas and decreased in others. In the areas where it increased, cotton production also increased. This result suggests that in some circumstances plantations had an advantage over small farms.     

比较优势、规模经济和贸易成本:国际生产分割下垂直关联产业的空间分布

在国际生产分工背景下,比较优势和规模经济成为影响企业生产区位的重要因素。本文在新经济地理框架下构建开放条件下理论模型,探讨不同贸易成本下比较优势和规模经济对垂直关联产业空间分布的影响。结果刻画出在比较优势和规模经济共同作用下,伴随贸易成本变化出现的4种垂直关联产业空间分布模式。表明我国目前所处的国际分工地位是在现有贸易成本条件下比较优势和规模经济相互作用的均衡结果,而吸引上游产业在中国聚集是实现我国产业结构升级的合理路径。     

An analysis of small,high performing minority and nonminority banks’ strategies, 1980-1988

This is a study of high performing, small banks. The study defines a small, high performing bank and, then, compares the performing characteristics between high performing minority and high performing nonminority banks during two distinct time periods: 1980 and 1988. Performance differences between the two groups were greater in 1988 than in 1980. These differences identified the complexity of managing high performing minority banks relative to high performing nonminority banks and suggested the minority banks’ basic banking philosophy and operating strategies may have been a major contributor to their high performing status. All small, high performing banks do not employ the same strategies to achieve high performing status. The markets for the two groups of banks in this study appear to be segmented. Small, minority and nonminority banks employ different strategies to become successful. This report examines those differences.     

Participation of blacks and immigrants in the American Merchant class, 1890–1910: Some demographic relations

During the late 19th and early 20th centuries many persons of minority ethnic status perceived that business enterprise offered an important opportunity for joining the mainstream of American economic life. To become a merchant was to acquire a measure of personal independence and a chance for higher rewards than those earned by industrial employees. To establish a business required the assumption of substantial risk, for the rate of failure among incipient enterprises was always great. Many would willingly bear the risk. But how many could survive, and where was the probability of success highest? The answers depended in part on the demographic features of the markets they undertook to serve.This article seeks, through an analysis of quantitative evidence, to answer some questions about the relation between demographic patterns and the extent of participation in retail merchandizing. Did urbanization promote such participation? Was the North or the South more stimulating to the merchant class? To what extent did participation in merchandizing differ among blacks, immigrants, and native whites? By employing quantitative evidence and multiple regression analysis, this paper offers more precise answers than traditional methods of historical inquiry would permit. But at the same time it raises questions that can only be answered by more traditional methods of study.     

环境规制的成本收益分析--美国的经验与启示

本文在阐述环境规制影响分析的理论基础上,介绍了美国环境规制影响分析的方法,及其在环境规制政策目标效率的评估和环境规制政策工具选择中的应用。建议我国借鉴美国环境规制影响分析的经验,引进环境规制影响分析的理念和制度。     

City size,quality of life,and the urbanization deflator of the GNP: 1910-1984

The authors attempt to determine the net effect of city size on quality of life by developing a welfare measure of urbanization. "The estimation procedure suggested in the theoretical part of the paper (section II) is implemented in the empirical part (section III) using 1980 census data from the [U.S.] PUMS (Public Use Micro Data Sample). The results indicate there is no single optimal city size, but rather a worst city size, and about 90 percent of the U.S. population reside in cities smaller than worst city size. If quality of life is related to the degree of urbanization, then long-term trends in the locational distribution of the population should be accounted for in any welfare-oriented measure of national income. One application of our results is, as indicated, the derivation of a GNP welfare deflator reflecting changes in the degree of urbanization (section IV). The findings suggest an urban deflator on the order of six to seven percentage points, which is steadily increasing at a rate of about half a percentage point per decade."     

金融危机背景下再论金融发展与经济增长——基于发达经济体与新兴市场国家的实证检验

20世纪90年代以来,全球金融危机频发,引发对金融发展、政策与经济增长关系的重新思考。本文收集了39个国家和地区1994～2007年间的年度数据,利用面板数据计量经济分析方法,针对发达经济体与新兴市场和发展中国家的不同,通过面板数据的单位根检验、协整分析和构建误差修正模型,检验金融发展、政策与经济增长的长期均衡关系及短期因果关系。     

地市级官员交流与地方经济发展——基于广东省(1988-2009)的经验研究

既有文献均从省级层面检验官员交流对经济发展的影响,研究地市级官员交流的经济后果将是对既有文献的有益补充。本文利用广东省21地市1988-2009年间党政首长任职数据展开的经验研究表明,广东省地市官员交流促进了地市经济增长,即便考虑不同时期跨度、不同交流类型、不同时间阶段以及考察弱内生性样本,上述结果都显著且稳健。此外还发现,官员的跨省交流比同省交流对经济增长具有更大的促进作用;1999年前的官员交流对经济增长作用比较有限,而1999年后的交流对增长的作用则相当明显。     

货币供应、货币超发与通货膨胀:基于全球52个经济体的实证检验

文章以52个国家或地区2000~2016年的季度数据,对货币数量论的适应性展开了更进一步的细化研究。平稳性检验中,将传统的ADF检验与内生两突变点的LM单位根检验相结合,防止因果检验样本的可能遗漏。逐个国家或地区全样本因果检验结果显示,货币供应和货币超发对通货膨胀具有显著影响(10%显著水平)的国家数比重分别为27%和36%,反映货币数量论并非绝对存在而应具备一定的适用条件。通过使用滚动窗口方法,文章进一步验证了货币数量论同一国家或地区在不同时间段的情况,得到了适用性不一致的结论。最后,利用滚动窗口的检验结果,发现货币数量论适用与不适用两类国家或地区,除GDP增速外,通货膨胀水平和货币供应增速均具有显著差异性。     

The accumulation of property by southern blacks and whites: Individual-level evidence from a South Carolina cotton county, 1910-1919

This paper examines new data on wealth and wealth accumulation by blacks and whites in Calhoun County, South Carolina between 1910 and 1919. Despite focusing on a single county, the data utilized in this paper make it possible to explore property accumulation by southern blacks and whites in new ways. Unlike previous studies, this one provides information on both real quantities and dollar assessments. This breakdown reveals that the rapid accumulation of property by blacks was entirely real and not due in part to an increasingly discriminatory assessment policy. By merging the assessment data with individual-level census records, it is possible to examine how wealth and wealth accumulation were influenced by race, gender, age, occupation, and literacy. In particular, the effect of literacy on the wealth of black men in 1910 was found to be economically strong in high wealth quantiles but weak in low wealth quantiles. By 1919, the impact of literacy on the wealth of black men had become economically important across the board. Furthermore, literacy had a significant influence on the relative size of wealth accumulations but offered little protection against low accumulations.     

估值效应的规模及结构的测算理论与方法研究——基于中、美、日及欧元区的比较分析

估值效应由于具有对外部资产存量进行调整的作用而越来越受到关注,一定规模的正估值效应能提高一国(或地区)的外部财富。文章运用最新估值效应理论和方法,测算其规模并分析内部结构,并在中国、美国、日本及欧元区四大经济体之间进行比较分析。分析结果表明,我国需进一步扩大对外直接投资、股权证券投资等外部资产的规模,以提高我国整体外部资产的收益水平,优化外部资产结构,最终通过正估值效应实现外部财富的增值。     

贸易成本、垂直专业化与制造业产业集聚——基于中美数据的实证分析

改革开放以来,东部沿海地区逐渐成为中国的出口基地和制造业生产基地,工业制成品出口极大地拉动了东部地区的经济发展。本文利用中美数据分别计算了中美两国间贸易成本、垂直专业化指数和中国制造业的空间基尼系数,并实证分析了三者之间的关系。结果表明,中美两国间的贸易成本不断下降,中国对美贸易的垂直专业化指数逐渐提高。贸易成本的下降和垂直专业化程度的提高促进了中国制造业空间基尼系数的扩大,促进了中国制造业的产业集聚,加剧了中国制造业区域发展的不平衡。     

Fear and greed: The evolution of double liability in American banking, 1865-1930

This paper examines the pattern and timing of the enactment of double liability for state banks in the United States prior to the Great Depression. Under double liability, shareholders of failing banks could lose, in addition to the initial purchase price of shares, an amount equal to the par value of shares owned. The results suggest that double liability was adopted by states subject to greater economic risks, where bank failures were more likely, or where the economy and banking sector were more advanced and bank failures would be more costly (i.e., fear), and that single liability was adopted by more rapidly growing states, where the payoff to greater risk-taking was higher (i.e., greed).     

全球化、多极化与美国贸易逆差:一个分析性评论

美国经济的“软着陆”问题已成为全球关注的热点。巨额的逆差数字是其中最大的症结。本文试图从美国贸易逆差的形成机理入手,指出美国以逆差为代价推动“新经济”的做法无异于饮鸠止渴,逆差问题的解决只能依赖于全球经济的互动,从经济学的角度支持了世界政治的“多极稳定论”。     

利率管制、储蓄动员与经济增长--对东亚国家经济发展过程中高储蓄率的一种解释

东亚国家经济发展的特点是普遍存在利率管制，但同时保持了较高的储蓄率和经济增长率，这是传统金融自由化理论难以解释的问题。本文建立的模型证明了，只要利率稍微为正，利率管制就可以通过创造租金，激励金融机构扩大规模、增设分支机构，起到动员储蓄和促进经济增长的作用。而对中国改革二十余年的经验研究也证明了这一点。     

Belonging and community: understandings of "home" and "friends" among the English poor, 1750-1850

This article is based on unique ‘narratives of the poor’, that is, letters from poor people to their parishes of settlement, petitions to the London Refuge of the Destitute, and letters from mothers to the London Foundling Hospital, with supportive evidence from newspapers. These display fundamental concepts among the English poor, who were often poorly literate, and who comprised the majority of the population. Discussion focuses upon their understandings of ‘home’, ‘belonging’, ‘friends’, and ‘community’. These key concepts are related here to modern discussions, to set important concerns into historical perspective. ‘Friends’, valuably studied by sociologists such as Pahl, had a wide meaning in the past. ‘Home’ meant (alongside abode) one's parish of legal settlement, where one was entitled to poor relief under the settlement/poor laws. This was where one ‘belonged’. Ideas of ‘community’ were held and displayed even at a distance, among frequently migrant poor, who wrote to their parishes showing strong ties of attachment, right, and local obligation. This discussion explores these issues in connection with belonging and identity. It elucidates the meaning and working of poor law settlement, and is also an exploration of popular mentalities and the semi-literate ways in which these were expressed.