Singapore’s Bilateral Merchandise Trade Linkages with Japan and the United States: Trends,Patterns and Comparisons

This paper analyses and compares trends and patterns in Singapore’s bilateral merchandise trade relations with its two largest trading partners, Japan and the United States (US). Over the period 1976-1992, the analyses reveal that both Japan and the US have been relatively over-represented as Singapore’s trade partners. However, whereas Singapore’s trade with Japan has become more intensive in recent years, that with the US has become less so. Computations reveal that the degree as well as level of Singapore’s intra-industry trade with the US has exceeded that with Japan. Nevertheless, while the degree of Singapore’s intra-industry trade with Japan has been consistently increasing since 1981, bilateral trade with the US since 1987 has become increasingly inter- rather than intra-industry. The important nexus between trade and FDI is also highlighted.     

Bilateral S-curve between Japan and her trading partners

The cross-correlation function between terms of trade and trade balance has been found to resemble a pattern that is labeled the S-curve. This pattern has received weak support in some developed and less developed countries when aggregate trade data are used. Empirical regularities based on aggregate trade data may be biased since aggregation can potentially suppress some of patterns observed in trade at the bilateral levels. We try to overcome this problem by employing bilateral trade data for Japan and find strong support for the S-curve between Japan and many of her trading partners.     

从比较优势看中、俄贸易的前景

自1999年以来,中、俄双边贸易呈快速增长的态势,并连续10年以近年均30%的增幅持续发展。2009年中国已成为俄罗斯的第三大贸易伙伴,俄国也成为中国的第八大贸易伙伴。因此研究中俄贸易对于双边经贸关系的发展具有重要的意义。本文在中俄贸易现状的基础上分析了两国贸易中各自的比较优势,进而结合贸易结合度指数,对中俄双边贸易的前景进行了展望。     

Singapore's Perspectives on the Proliferation of RTAs in East Asia and Beyond

Abstract

In this article the viewpoints and adopted strategies of Singapore in managing its trading relationship with other countries in the world is discussed. Trade being the lifeline and basis for its economic survival, Singapore has been very active in the negotiation and establishment of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with countries, practically in every continent. Singapore's activism in bilateral FTAs is a reinforcement of its development strategy of expanding and ensuring market access for local and foreign investors. This is also in alignment with Singapore's pro- business strategy philosophy and the objective of ensuring economic viability. Also Singapore's trade accords go beyond trade liberalization and include “behind the border” impediments to trade; this is reckoned to keep the momentum of trade talk going and to hasten the process of liberalization by inducing other countries to liberalize.     

中国加入WTO以来中日国际分工格局的变化——以汽车及其零部件产业内贸易为例

大多数国家的经验表明,一国经济开放度的提高会改变该国的国际分工模式,具体表现为产业内贸易水平的上升。本文具体研究中国加入WTO以来中日汽车及其零部件的产业内贸易,得出结论:中日汽车及其零部件的产业内贸易水平在这一时期不仅没有上升,反而出现了大幅度的下降。作者对此原因作了研究并提出了一些启示。     

Demand patterns and Canada’s trade in services

Canada’s trade in commercial services appears inconsistent with what manufacturing-oriented Heckscher-Ohlin theory predicts. Canada’s services trade is overwhelmingly intra-industry, involving countries whose factor proportions and demand patterns are similar—findings consistent with the ‘new’ trade theory, and the Linder hypothesis: that there is a uni-directional causal relationship flowing from the similarity (convergence) in demand patterns amongst trading partners, to Canada’s exports to those partners. Support for this conjecture is found for the US, the UK, and Japan. We infer that liberalization of trade in commercial services is likely welfare enhancing, with gains greater within trade arrangements and entities such as the NAFTA, the EU, and the OECD.     

Decomposing China–Japan–U.S. trade: Vertical specialization,ownership, and organizational form

We use the US International Trade Commission's uniquely detailed 1995–2007 Chinese Customs data to better understand the pattern of trade between China and its two largest trading partners, Japan and the United States. Our review finds that only a small share of these flows can be characterized as arm's length, one-way trade in final goods. Instead, we find extensive two-way trade, deep vertical specialization, concentration of trade in computer and communication devices, and a prominent role for foreign-invested enterprises. While these characteristics define both bilateral relationships, important differences between the two pairs do emerge, suggesting that trade costs influence the method by which multinationals choose to integrate their production with China. Consequently, we argue that dialogue on East Asian trade liberalization should include the possibility of significant production gains for the US from its inclusion in any regional agreements.     

Price Fluctuations and Growth Patterns in Singapore's Trade, 1831–1913

Using a newly created trade price index, this paper determines the real growth rate of Singapore's trade during 1831–1913. We find that Singapore's trade grew between 1831 and 1873 at a higher rate than during the later period. An analysis of the terms of trade and purchasing power parity reveals that the growth pattern of Singapore's entrepôt trade changed after 1850 from growth fuelled by transit trade of industrial products to balanced growth between regional imports and exports. This change resulted from the operation of the international monetary system, which enhanced market integration between Britain and Southeast Asia via Singapore.     

Chinese Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade: A Panel Data Study for 50 Countries in the 1992–2001 Period

This study examines the features and determinants of Chinese intra-industry trade during the 1992–2001 transition period for 50 of China’s trade partners. We disentangle total intra-industry trade (TIIT) into vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) vis-à-vis horizontal intra-industry trade (HIIT), using data at the four-digit SITC level. The findings indicate that Chinese bilateral intra-industry trade, particularly VIIT, increased significantly during this transition period. VIIT appears to be positively related to differences in consumer patterns. HIIT is negatively related to these differences. In addition, we find that FDI has played an important role in determining IIT, especially VIIT. Other significant intra-industry trade drivers are geographical distance, economic size, trade openness and trade composition. Finally, the impact of China’s liberalization policies and the special role of Hong Kong are demonstrated. We discuss a number of important business and political implications that can be drawn from our findings. JEL no. F14     

中日双边产业内贸易及影响因素实证研究

本文利用产业内贸易指数对1988～2008年中日贸易数据的分析结果显示:产业内贸易已成为两国贸易的重要组成部分,其中制成品特别是SITC5+7类资本或技术密集型制成品的产业内贸易特征尤为明显。进一步分析表明,中日产业内贸易比重的提升主要得益于垂直型产业内贸易的发展,且中国在中日垂直型产业内贸易中整体居于贸易劣势地位。对中日产业内贸易影响因素的回归结果显示:中日人均GDP差异、市场规模以及日本对华直接投资与中日产业内贸易正相关,而中日市场规模差异与中日产业内贸易负相关。     

A method for estimating the volume of Baltic timber products exported through the Sound and its application to Portugal, 1669–1815

Abstract

In this article, the conventional wisdom on German trade policies during the interwar and the wartime years are examined from the Swedish experience. The conventional view, represented by, for instance, Hirschman, Child and Ellis, is that Germany adopted exploitative trade policies during the 1930s. By forcing bilateral agreements onto its smaller trading partners, the bargaining power was biased towards Germany's advantage – that is, Germany gained the market position of a monopolist-monopsonist. According to the conventional view, this was reflected in the cash flows, export and import prices and the commodity structure of the trade. In this article, German trade policies are analyzed with respect to the design and practice of the Swedish-German bilateral exchange clearing agreement; the commodity structure of the trade; and the price trends in Swedish-German bilateral trade. In the analyses, no evidence was found that would suffice to confirm the conventional view on German trade policies. Instead, it seems more likely that the Germans aimed for long-term cooperation, as has been claimed by, for instance, Milward, Neal and Ritschl. This does not mean that German trade policies were not exploitative, but since bilateral arrangement leveled the asymmetric power relations, Germany could not make use of its relatively stronger position.     

FDI与垂直型产业内贸易实证研究——基于中日统计数据的Granger因果检验

基于Fukao等人(2003)的模型对FDI与垂直型产业内贸易的分析结果表明,在FDI成本与贸易成本较低的条件下,当两国存在资源禀赋差异时,FDI会引起两国间垂直型产业内贸易。进一步利用1988年至2009年中日贸易数据的指数进行分析的结果表明:产业内贸易已成为两国贸易的重要组成部分,其中SITC 7类机电产品产业内贸易特征尤为明显,而中日产业内贸易比重的提升则主要得益于垂直型产业内贸易的发展。而Granger因果检验的结果证实了理论分析的结论。     

日本对华直接投资与中日垂直型产业内贸易实证研究

利用产业内贸易指数对1988至2009年中日贸易数据的分析结果显示:产业内贸易已成为两国贸易的重要组成部分,其中SITC 7类机电产品产业内贸易特征尤为明显。进一步分析表明,中日产业内贸易比重的提升主要得益于垂直型产业内贸易的发展。利用Fukao等人(2003)的模型对FDI与垂直型产业内贸易的分析结果表明,在FDI成本与贸易成本较低的条件下,当两国存在要素禀赋差异时,FDI会引起两国间垂直型产业内贸易。     

Driving forces of vertical intra-industry trade in Europe 1996–2005

A common feature in the empirical literature of intra-industry trade is the analysis of trade between a given reference country and a set of partners. This article differs from previous studies by examining the bilateral trade among all trading partners within a set of partners. Using a panel data approach, we find that differences in factor endowments seem not to be important as a driving force behind vertical intra-industry trade for European countries over the chosen period. More important driving forces are production size, geographical proximity, average income per capita and income distribution overlap.     

Intra-industry trade in the 1980s: A panel study

Intra-Industry Trade in the 1980s: A Panel Study. — This paper uses a panel data set to estimate the determinants of intra-industry trade in the 1980s. The data for trade covers 68 ISIC industries for the US, Japan, Germany, France, the UK and Italy from 1980 to 1987. UK data is used to measure industry characteristics. The results support, in particular, the positive effects of R&;D intensity and heterogeneity on intra-industry trade and the negative effects of scale and concentration. While fixed effects estimation indicates that industry characteristics explain most of the variation in intra-industry trade, differences in industry characteristics or in their effects vary significantly across countries.     

Is the US no longer the economy of first resort? Changing economic relationships in the Asia-Pacific region

This paper tests the hypothesis that the economic relationships between China and her major trading partners have changed over the past 20 years with the industrialisation of China, and the emergence of Japan as a source of investment and network trade in sophisticated manufactures, and the US as a source of finance and investment assets, supplier of services and an apparently inexhaustible demand for consumer and intermediate goods. Has this changed the size and direction of spillovers in the region, and has it curtailed or eliminated American economic leadership? We use time-varying spectral methods to decompose the links between the two leading Asian economies and the US. We find: (a) the links with the US have been weakening, while those based on China have strengthened; (b) that this is not new—it has been happening since the 1980s, but has now been reversed by the surge in trade; (c) that the links with the US have been rather complex, with the US able to shape the cycles elsewhere through her control of monetary conditions, but the China zone able to control the size of their cycles; (d) that Japan remains linked to (and dependent on) the US; and (e) there is no evidence that pegged exchange rates encourage convergence.     

Is Japan's trade (still) different?

Does Japanese trade in manufactured goods differ from the rest-of-the world average and from the US? We use a simple industry-level gravity model and 1981–1998 data to answer this question. We construct a measure of normalized imports by dividing bilateral industry-level imports by the importer's aggregate absorption and the exporter's industry output. We find that Japan imports less than other countries, but also exports less than other countries. Relative to the US, Japanese export performance is half as strong today as it was in the mid-1980s. Bilaterally, Japan is more open to imports from the US than the US is to imports from Japan. This means that the US runs a trade surplus with Japan in normalized imports of manufactured goods. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 507–519.     

International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives

Opinion over the global implications of China's rise is divided between critics and proponents. Critics see it as having developed at the expense of both investment and employment in the US, Europe and Japan. Proponents emphasise improvements in the terms of trade and reductions to the cost of financing that stem from China's supply of light manufactures, its demand for Western capital and luxury goods and its high saving. The criticism implies Keynesian assumptions while proponents take a neoclassical perspective. In this paper, both are embodied in a global macro-model that emphasises bilateral linkages via trade and investment, with monetary spill-overs represented by globally integrated bond markets. Net gains are suggested for the US and Europe from China's successful export-oriented growth, though there are partially offsetting Keynesian effects. China's recent slower, more consumption focussed, growth appears also to be beneficial in those regions and in Japan notwithstanding terms of trade losses.     

日本与东盟贸易关系的发展及其问题

近40年来,日本与东盟一直互为重要的贸易伙伴。从上世纪80年代中期至今,双边贸易额剧增,进出口商品结构也发生了显著变化。日本在出口技术密集的高附加值产品的同时,从东盟进口的初级产品比重减少,制成品进口比重迅速增加。但这只是资本全球化、区域经济一体化形势下,部门内非熟练劳动与技术交换的垂直分工形式,并不能说是水平分工。东盟仍是日本重要的资源供应地、生产基地和工业品市场。     

International intra-industry trade of China

International Intra-Industry Trade of China. — The purpose of this paper is to measure the extent of the international intra-industry trade of China, and to test empirically various country-specific and industry-specific hypotheses concerning the determinants of vertical and horizonal intra-industry trade between China and her major trading partners. It is revealed that China has possessed the prerequisite of intra-industry trade and that China’s intra-industry trade follows similar patterns of those in developed countries as China is moving towards a market-oriented economy. F14, O53