国际货币基金组织份额与投票权改革

国际金融危机凸显出国际货币基金组织(IMF)份额与投票权机制的诸多弊端。在多次G20峰会的推动下,IMF份额改革不断稳步推进。G20首尔峰会正式确认发达国家向新兴市场和发展中国家转移超过6%的份额。这是IMF历史上一次最根本性的治理改革,有着多方面的国际政治经济背景。份额改革使中国坐上了IMF的第三把交椅,带来了新的机遇与挑战。     

Swing Voting and Fast‐Track Authority

Following the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993 and the Uruguay Round Agreement in 1994, the United States appeared to be on the verge of an era of unprecedented trade liberalization. Since that time, however, the United States has struggled to pass almost every important trade liberalization bill. Results indicate that the factor most likely responsible for the difficulty in achieving trade liberalization over the last 15 years is shifting pressures within the U.S. House of Representatives related to partisanship and constituency.     

Some Thoughts on the Voting Process

Since the rational voter model was first introduced, the issue of voting determinants has been the subject of extensive study. Moreover, the significance of the democratic process has long been a subject of extensive study and controversy. This study addresses a related pair of issues and offers some challenges for students of voting, the voting process, and the nature of democracy to ponder. The two issues are: (1) what does democracy mean? and (2) which is the best or least bad of these various choices.     

A Classroom Exercise: Voting by Ballots and Feet

This classroom experiment illustrates the efficiency-enhancing property of a Tiebout system in which local public goods decisions are determined by a political process. Students are given playing cards that induce diverse preferences for expenditures on alternative public goods and are initially assigned to specific communities. Then those in each community vote on the type and level of public goods provision, which determine the tax cost. After the provision and tax results are announced, students are free to move to a location where the prior results are more consistent with their preferences. This process continues for several rounds, with a new vote taken at each location after moves have been made. The exercise demonstrates that the combination of voting with feet and ballots tends to increase the total net benefit for all communities. The voting on provision levels is structured to facilitate a discussion of the median voter theorem.     

Strategic Drift and Strategic Crisis Management of Organization

The research reports how the choice of the organization behavior--strategic drift can lead to strategic crisis as a form of manifestation of a deepening organizational crisis. The research questions whose solution is sought are connected with the relation of strategic drift--strategic crisis--strategic crisis management, in terms of whether the errors in the process of strategic management lead to organizational crises. The results of the historical analysis of the theoretical research and practice in this field show the interdependence among these processes and the reasons for strategic crisis in support of the concept of strategic crisis management and its implementation in business. The study outlines the evolution of the theory of strategic drift, as well as opinions of various scientists on the types of crises, which are perceived as a uniform classification and universal interpretation of the term ＂strategic crisis＂. The organization＇s ＂strategic drift＂ leads to serious organizational crisis which first form that strategic crisis. Practice shows that the management of market leaders often leads to complacency, choosing strategy stability. Soon, as a result of aggressive strategies or implemented innovations of their competitors, they lose their competitive position.     

A Long History of FOMC Voting Behavior

We devise and apply a method for estimating monetary policy reaction functions for individual members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve. Our method uses members' votes on the monetary policy directive in FOMC meetings as the key source of data on individual preferences. The analysis provides a ranking by preference for ease for 84 FOMC members who served during the 1966-1996 period.     

The Competing Agendas of Economic Reform and Peace Process: A Politico-Economic Model Applied to Guatemala

Governments face a critical dilemma in the direct aftermath of civil wars. They have to deal with the diverging agendas of peace-building and economic reform, both of which are urgently required to put the economy back on track and consolidate peace. The paper introduces a macroeconometric model that comprises not only economic variables, but also political and conflict-related ones. Simulations of both economic and peace conditionality in the case of Guatemala highlight stark contradictions between the two types of conditions when looking at politico-economic interactions, calling for increased policy coherence in the overall response of the international community.     

战略性新兴产业与战略性自主创新政策

自2008年金融危机以来,世界主要发达国家为了应对经济危机而开始发展战略性新兴产业。文章通过分析战略性新兴产业产生的背景以及战略性新兴产业的主要内容和特征,进而提出在战略性自主创新政策的指导下发展我国战略性新兴产业的必要性。     

论国际组织的表决制度

表决制度是国际组织决策程序的核心，它可以分为投票表决和不投票表决两种方式。表决权的分配制度和集中制度是投票表决的核心内容，它们又各自有其不同的类别和优劣。协商一致制虽然减弱了对抗，但也存在着概念模糊、耗时较长的缺陷。认真分析并灵活运用国际组织的表决制度，是我国当前在国际交往中亟待关注的问题。     

民营企业的战略危机、战略选择与战略保障体系

国内最新一项研究成果表明，中国企业平均寿命只有6．5—7岁，而民营企业只有2.9岁。民营企业要摆脱短命的命运，除需要外部环境不断优化外，更需民企自身进行理性的战略规划和准确的战略定位。本文分析了我国民企的六大战略危机现象，提出了四种可选择的战略模式，以期使民企逐步由投机逐利型向战略长寿型转变。     

Export and Strategic Currency Hedging

This paper examines an international Cournot duopoly wherein a home firm and a foreign firm compete in the home market under exchange rate uncertainty. The foreign exporting firm, being risk averse, has incentives to hedge its exchange rate risk exposure. In a two-stage setting, we show that hedging via an unbiased currency futures market acts as a strategic device. In particular, under either constant or decreasing absolute risk aversion, an increase in the hedging volume of the foreign firm promotes its exports and deters the home firm’s output. In contrast to the well-known full-hedging result in a perfectly competitive environment, we find that the foreign firm over-hedges for strategic reasons. Furthermore, the separation result from the hedging literature under perfect competition no longer holds in our duopoly framework, i.e., equilibrium output levels depend on the risk attitude of the foreign firm as well as the probability distribution of the spot exchange rate.     

Strategic planning and industrial policy

The poor performance of British industry in international markets is partly due to a lack of sector strategic planning. Whereas the Thatcher government looks to an unfettering of the market mechanism as the key to industrial recovery, in fact this is contrary to the experience of several other capitalist countries. The role of banks and government agencies in Japan, of inter-firm co-operation in Italy, and of various corporatist instruments in France and Germany, suggest ways in which local enterprise boards could assist the re-structuring of manufacturing industry in Britain.     

The Role of Trade Negotiating Objectives in TPA-2015 Voting

This paper analyzes 2015-TPA voting patterns of Congress in the context of the trade negotiating objectives. By setting them Congress lays out important trade agenda that the administration is expected to address when it is negotiating trade deals with foreign countries. Therefore it is an important part of the TPA. The probit model is used to evaluate the importance of each objective in Congress’s voting decision. The objective of promoting U.S. exports in agriculture, transportation equipment and metal affected the voting decision. Also the issues of labour rights and intellectual property rights mattered.     

加权投票自适应的联络中心多类型任务量预测

联络中心排班需要准确预测到达任务量的各种类型。联络中心任务量数据庞大复杂,针对多类型任务的预测方法进行了研究,实现了对联络中心大量任务数据进行准确预测类型任务的目的。首先分析了任务量数据特点,确定了工作日和休息日对任务类型的影响。工作日使用PSO优化LIBSVM模型的参数,作为弱分类器用自适应增强算法迭代训练,提出用加权投票方法融合弱分类器的思想;休息日直接使用PSO-SVM模型预测。实验结果表明,该方法的分类准确率相对于传统方法准确率有很大提高。这对联络中心的人员排班管理具有重要的作用,对其他的服务行业的任务预测分类也有重要的参考价值。     

Strategic Intrafirm Innovation Adoption and Diffusion

A theory of oligopolistic innovation adoption is developed in which intrafirm diffusions occur because the marginal cost of adoption is increasing in the rate of adoption. The equilibrium intrafirm diffusion curve is S-shaped or concave, as are empirically observed ones. This diffusion curve is more likely to be S-shaped the more competitive the industry, the larger the marginal cost of adoption or the pre-innovation unit cost of production, or the smaller the demand. The diffusion is longer, and so the extent of adoption at any date is lower the more competitive the industry, the larger the marginal cost of adoption or the pre-innovation unit cost of production, or the smaller the demand. A surprising result is that an increase in the unit cost reduction from the innovation has an ambiguous effect on diffusion. Obviously, a larger cost reduction allows each firm to earn a larger flow profit at every date from the same rate of adoption. However, a more subtle effect is that it also allows the firm to earn the same flow of profit with a slower rate of adoption, and so lower adoption costs. That is, the firms also have an incentive to spread out the diffusion over a longer period of time to save on adoption costs.     

混沌理论与不确定性战略管理

每一事物现象间的先后关系按周期分类有准周期、似周期和非周期三种关系。不确定性就是一种非周期性的关系和现象。 根据事件发生的可能性和结果的明确程度,不确定性又可以具体分为四种情况(表1):     

Sibling Rivalry and Strategic Parental Transfers

This paper develops a noncooperative Nash model in which two siblings compete for their parents' financial transfers. Treating sibling rivalry as a “rent-seeking contest” and using a Tullock-Skaperdas contest success function, we derive the conditions under which more financial resources are transferred to the sibling with lower earnings. We find that parental transfers are compensatory and that the family as an institution serves as an “income equalizer.” Within a sequential game framework, we characterize the endogeneity of parental transfers and link it to parents' income, altruism, and children's supply of merit goods (e.g., parent-child companionship or child services). We show that merit goods are subject to a “moral hazard” problem from the parents' perspective.     

Voting rules and the success of connected lending in 19th century New England banks

How well do decision-making processes within firms serve as control mechanisms? The voting rules governing loan approval in early 19th century New England banks are analyzed to find out. These banks exhibited high levels of lending to directors and their associates. Some theories of corporate governance argue that this could lead to increased managerial opportunism. However, a model shows that banks that require more votes to be won in the loan approval process prevent projects with private gains and social costs. The historical data are consistent with the idea that higher levels of consensus raised the profitability of banks.     

加权投票制、投票力与美国的金融霸权

在加权投票制度中,投票人的实际投票力与其拥有的票数并不是线性关系。Banzhaf指数和Coleman指数可以用来衡量投票人的实际投票力。通过对国际货币基金组织(IMF)执行董事会成员实际投票力的计算发现,IMF的投票规则放大了美国的控制力,强化了美国的霸权地位。本文针对IMF投票规则的不合理之处,提出了改革IMF投票制度的建议。