“Post‐Truth,” “Alternative Facts” and “Fakenomics”

South African companies are accused of hoarding profits to accumulate large amounts of “idle” cash, as well as of being the perpetrators of massive illegal capital flight. This paper argues that much of the claimed corporate cash is either offshore or belongs to banks. It reminds that bank deposits increase when companies borrow, not when they retain profits. It shows, too, that measures of massive capital flight actually reflect data errors. Exaggerating, through faulty methodology the extent to which companies have cash or may be involved in illegal capital flight is unhelpful. It exacerbates already‐fraught government‐business relations, and complicates the search for solutions to South Africa's economic problems.     

“INTERNATIONAL SOLIDARITY” AND ECONOMIC INEQUALITY

At present, when more than half of the “Development Decade” has passed, the economic development of developing countries is far behind the targets set forth at the beginning of this decadc. The author analyses this problem, particularly from the viewpoint of capital movements, and comes to the conclusion that the existing system of capital movements to developing countries today must be re-examined; a new world loans or grants system should be established in combination with efforts in the direction of total disarmament.     

SARIT AND THAILAND'S “PRO-AMERICAN POLICY”

The idea of “pro-Americanism,” appearing at the same time as America's sense of world mission, is a phenomenon of the post World War II period, and for this reason has a very short history. The basic point is that “pro-Americanism”fluctuates according to American conditions, but fundamentally it is controlled by the internal conditions of the “pro-American”country. At the same time, as in most diplomatic relations, “pro-Americanism”is too a basically unstable condition and by trying to stabilize it and make it permanent, both American and the other countries undergo severe stresses. The “pro-American”relationship which ties the United States with numerous small countries in a chiefly bilateral relationship is certainly not immutable. How should the changes be measured and in what context should they be viewed? I shall take the case of Thailand, the most “pro-American”of the Southeast Asian countries. I shall be looking at political leadership as the basic key to the changes, and from this angle the main problem of this article is how to evaluate the part played by Sarit.     

The meaning of “social safety nets”

In Southeast Asia, the issue of “social safety nets” (SSNs) has emerged more prominently since the financial crisis. Despite the increased interest in social safety nets, there is still considerable confusion among scholars and national and international organizations regarding the use and meaning of the term. This article considers the different definitions of the term—particularly as it was used during the Asian Financial Crisis—and to attempt to clarify its meaning and proper use.The safety net analogy is drawn from high-wire walkers who are protected by a safety net if they fall. The safety net prevents any walker who falls—unexpectedly or not—from hitting the floor and incurring catastrophic injuries. Following this line of reasoning, it is not surprising to learn that some organizations and scholars use the term SSN such that it encompasses private and public mechanisms that assist individuals in maintaining a minimum level of consumption.The term “social safety net” (SSN) began to be used by Bretton Woods’ institutions in connection with structural adjustment programs related to their lending programs. Developing countries introduced SSNs to mitigate the social impact of structural adjustment measures on specific low-income groups. They were initially formulated to serve three objectives: poverty alleviation, to make adjustment programs more politically acceptable, and institutional reform. During the Asian Financial Crisis, there was a great deal of confusion regarding the content and consequent identification of SSN programs.Public SSN programs can be classified into formal and informal safety nets. Formal and informal safety nets are, generally, distinguished by law enforcement: formal safety nets are those which legally guarantee individuals access to economic or social support whereas informal safety nets provide likelihood of support to individuals to assure them of attaining or remaining above the designated minimum standard of living but with no legal guarantee.Informal SSNs can be divided into private and public ones. Examples of private informal SSNs include transfers from family members, friends, neighbors and community members and institutions, including NGOs, while those of public informal SSNs refer to the support which individuals can hope for from the government, through programs which generate assets or employment, transfer income, or provide basic social services, as a means of helping affected individuals from falling below the designated minimum standard of living. The difference between formal and informal public SSNs is whether there exists a formal legal support of the assistance.The article has provided more discussion on the definitions of SSN used by the World Bank, ESCAP, ILO and TDRI.In conclusion, the authors note that the tremendous variation in the use of the term invites confusion and makes it virtually useless as a technical concept. The very nature of the metaphor invokes a vision of a large net that encompass a number of different types of programs. In many cases it is not even possible to list specific programs that are included, as the particular forms of these programs could, of course, vary with place, time and circumstances. Complicating things further, the term is sometimes used in a very narrow sense. Given the low probability that usage of the term will ever be standardized, economists and national/international organizations might be well served by avoiding the term completely and instead using its component parts.     

Teaching Preparation and Placement in “Non‐top‐tier” Ph.D. Programs

In a recent article, Jacobson (2015) provides an invaluable economics job market guide for economics Ph.D. candidates from “non‐top‐tier” programs in the United States. Her treatment is detailed and, to a large extent, thorough. However, Jacobson fails to discuss the development of effective lead teaching experience in graduate school as a (potentially central) aspect of job market preparation. In the present comment, we develop and summarize a job posting and placement data set that focuses on Ph.D. candidates from non‐top‐tier programs. The data strongly suggests that the development of lead teaching experience in graduate school, rather than an optional line on one's vita, is an often pivotal element of realized job placement for Ph.D. candidates of non‐top‐tier programs. These findings corroborate with List's (2000) finding that, “a candidate's teaching portfolio was highly influential in the academic market” (p. 197). We also discuss the acquisition of lead teaching experience and benefits of early teaching experience that may extend beyond first job placement.     

上海国内航空客运市场特征分析

为深入了解上海航空客运市场特征,在分析上海航空运输市场发展环境的基础上,根据需求规模将上海航空客运市场细分为快线、大客流、中客流和低客流四类,并对每类细分市场分别从总体规模、航线机型匹配以及收益水平进行定量分析。结果表明,快线市场需求巨大供给充足,市场格局已经形成,大客流市场表现不稳定,中客流市场规模小,收益水平一般,而低客流市场收益良好,市场前景广阔。最后,根据市场特征给出航空公司进入上海市场的策略性建议。     

It is time to start “Rethinking Socialist Economics”

For the next few years, economic and employment policies will be dominated by the Conservative Government's programme. However, the debate on “alternative” policies should not be allowed to die. This review suggests that the issues raised by “Rethinking Socialist Economics” deserves serious attention.     

“Community” economic development in Knowsley, Merseyside. Rhetoric versus reality

The European Union's long-term goal for regional policy is economic and social cohesion. In Merseyside the Union has been engaged in a range of policies, through Objective 1 status, to stimulate regional economic development. In view of the current government's concern to promote capacity building and community economic development, an interesting aspect of Objective 1 is Pathways to Integration, a policy that seeks to tackle the problems of high unemployment and social exclusion across Merseyside through community economic development and capacity building. This paper contrasts the rhetoric of the Pathways literature with the reality of its local delivery in the Knowsley Borough of Merseyside. It argues that the reality of Pathways, particularly in relation to community involvement, does not match the rhetoric and the local delivery has been problematic, and that this experience has important lessons for local economic development strategies that include a large element of capacity building.     

The “North-South” controversy and Britain's regional problems

The extent of regional economic disparities in Britain has recently become the focus of considerable controversy. Attempts have been made to portray the existing situation in terms of a “North-South divide” or as “two nations”. Opponents of this point of view have argued that no such stark division of the country exists, and that prosperous areas can be found in parts of the North just as depressed areas can be found in parts of the South.

This paper considers the pattern of regional disparities which now prevails in Britain. Section I is a detailed presentation of the existing situation. Section II considers the question of how sharp a division there now is between different parts of Britain, followed, in Section III, by a discussion of the process of change which has brought about the regional disparities which we now observe. Implications for government policy are then considered.     

The “hidden” side of the “flying-geese” catch-up model: Japan’s dirigiste institutional setup and a deepening financial morass

Akamatsu’s original “flying geese” (FG) growth model is often used as a frame of reference for both further conceptual elaborations and empirical explorations. So far, only the positive results of FG development have been focused on and emphasized in connection with Asia’s phenomenal growth in the precrisis period. The Japanese economy, supposedly Asia’s lead goose, is in the eleventh consecutive year of stagnation. How has such a once successful lead goose come to be stricken by financial woes? This paper points out that Japan’s once miraculous FG growth was made possible because it established an effective dirigiste catch-up regime in the early postwar period but that Japan’s present financial predicament is paradoxically a path-dependent outcome of this FG strategy. The institutional, especially financial, dimension of FG strategy needs to be taken into account to explain why such a strategy once proved effective but later culminated in a deepening financial morass. The FG model should encompass not only the industrial dimension of catch-up but also its institutional, particularly financial, dimension.     

基于SWOT的柳州铁路局客运市场分析

对柳州铁路局客运市场进行SWOT分析是确定其客运营销战略的前提和基础。文章运用SWOT分析法分析了柳州铁路局客运市场环境,得出了柳州铁路局客运面临的外部机会主要有旅游资源丰富、西部大开发、旅客运输市场不断扩大等;外部威胁为吸引区内经济不发达、其他交通方式发展迅速、旅客运输质量要求越来越高等;自身优势有发达的线路网、强大的信息网和完善的设施网支持,旅行速度较快,旅行更安全等;劣势为直通客车数量太少,主型客车不足,空调车运用非常紧张,从业人员服务意识不够强等。     

“Linguistic Distance” as a Determinant of Bilateral Trade

We introduce a measure of language difficulty called “linguistic distance” into a modified gravity model to determine whether a language being further away from English affects the level of trade. Our sample of 36 non-English-speaking countries includes Japan and South Korea, which we argue are special cases because of World War II, the Korean War, and subsequent close political and economic ties with the United States. Presence of a stock of immigrants in the home country has been shown to enhance trade with the country of origin. Controlling for immigrant network and information attributes, the special relationship with Japan and Korea, and the standard gravity model variables, we find that trade will be less between the United States and a country the further that country's language is from English. These results hold for aggregate exports and imports and for exports and imports of consumer and producer manufactures.     

Are Investors Misled by “Pro Forma” Earnings?*

This paper uses stock market data to investigate the popular claim that investors are misled by the “pro forma” earnings numbers conspicuously featured in the press releases of some U.S. firms. We first document the frequency and magnitude of pro forma earnings in press releases issued during June through August 2000, and describe the 433 firms that engaged in this financial disclosure strategy. Our test period predates public expressions of concern by trade associations and regulators that pro forma earnings may mislead investors and the subsequent issuance of guidelines and rules on the disclosure of pro forma earnings numbers. We use two complementary approaches to determine whether the share prices that investors assign to pro forma firms are systematically higher than the prices assigned to other firms. Our market‐multiples tests for differences in price levels find some evidence suggesting that pro forma firms may be priced higher than firms that do not use the disclosure strategy. This apparent overpricing is not, however, related to the pro forma earnings numbers themselves. Our narrow‐window stock returns tests reveal no evidence of a stock return premium for pro forma firms at the quarterly earnings announcement date. Collectively, the results cast doubt on the notion that investors are, on average, misled by pro forma earnings disclosures despite the widespread concern expressed in the financial press and by regulators.     

“Imaginary” or “Real” Moneys of Account in Medieval Europe? An Econometric Analysis of the Basle Pound, 1365–1429

During the Middle Ages, the medium of exchange function of money was separate from the unit of account function. This has given rise to the misconception that the medieval pound was an “abstract” or “imaginary” unit of account whose purchasing power was independent of that of gold and silver coins. The joint behavior of the pound price of gold, the pound price of silver, and the silver–gold ratio in Basle between 1365 and 1429 cannot be reconciled with the notion that nominal values were autonomous. Instead, the monetary system was based on a silver standard, supplemented by gold coins whose money of account values were determined by this silver standard.     

A REVIEW OF THE CONCEPT OF THE “DUAL ECONOMY”*

The primary object of this paper is to present a methodological study which is concerned with how to clarify and evaluate the characteristics of that social and economic structure which is called “dual economy” in today's developing countries. It attempts a critical review of the concepts developed by J. H. Boeke, J. van Gelderen, J. S. Furnivall, H. Frankel, H. Myint, G. Myrdal and C. Geertz, among those who have taken the view of “social dualism.” It concludes that the concept of a dual economy should be perceived in terms of “colonial social dualism” as a system; and that it is solely from this point of view that the nature and direction of economic development in the context of economic nationalism in developing countries can adequately be explained.     

Interest Groups and the “Rise and Decline” of Growth

Interest groups are known to exert a sclerotic impact on mean growth, à la 1982 . It is unknown, however, what impact (if any) groups exert on the volatility of growth—an important hindrance to development. In this article, we first consider what impact we should expect Olson groups to have on the volatility of growth. We then estimate the relation between groups and growth volatility in a cross‐country panel, using system generalized method of moments. The findings indicate that groups are associated with growth stability. In addition, the findings suggest that interest groups may be a source of the stability observed in democracies.     

“SELF-SUSTAINED NATIONAL ECONOMY” IN MAINLAND CHINA

The Chinese formula for populist revolution (Maoism) was established at the Tsunyi Conference in 1935, after the defeat of the revolutionary movement which had been led under instructions from the Comintern since 1921. In the socialist construction of society, the period 1949–1957 was modelled on the Soviet pattern, but by 1958 an independent Chinese pattern had to be sought in order to achieve a self-sustained National Economy. This changing process reveals some important unsolved problems bequeathed to “The Great Cultural Revolution” as main issues.     

PCAOB Inspections: Public Accounting Firms on “Trial”

The objective of our article is to obtain a better understanding of how auditors anticipate the potential for PCAOB inspection, experience the inspection, cope with the consequences of the inspection, and understand the PCAOB's influence within the context of professionalism. We use a qualitative approach that uses both surveys (55) and interviews (20) of auditors (of varying rank and firm) across a five‐year period (2012–2017). Respondents suggest that PCAOB inspectors are powerful, representing the “prosecution,” “judge,” and “jury” of the auditing profession. We therefore use a structural metaphor of the PCAOB inspection as a judicial “trial.” By controlling the criteria used to evaluate performance, inspectors have the power to repeatedly “subpoena,” “interrogate,” and return a “verdict” on the firm (auditor); those judged as “guilty” require supervised “probation.” This process is perceived as having improved audit quality but at a cost. Passing an inspection is so important that auditors (firms) have resorted to impression management strategies and “functionally stupid” work practices (e.g., excessive documentation, a decrease in critical thinking as a result of a “box ticking” approach to auditing). Furthermore, some respondents believe that being a good auditor has come at the expense of being a good accountant; the emphasis on audit process and concurrent de‐emphasis on technical accounting could ultimately lead to audits themselves falling short. In addition, it is evident that inspectors and auditors differ in their perceptions of risk, likely manifesting because inspectors are standards‐focused while auditors (firms) are methodology‐focused. Finally, the inspection process has created excessive stress and tension, beyond budget and fee pressures, which some auditors perceive as affecting the pool of talented auditors that firms may be able to attract and retain in the future.     

THE NATURE OF THE “THREAT OF CHINA”—A Japanese View—

A China with nuclear capabilities is one of the big problems in international politics in East Asia. Some of the politicians in Japan feel the threat, and are trying to cope with it by closer ties with the United States. The “threat,” however, must be analyzed from the aspects of both China's capabilities and her intentions. By analyzing China's past behavior, the writer deduces that China's main objective seems to be the “liberation of Taiwan,” and not mere expansionism or simple security. On the basis of this understanding, the writer concludes that the “threat” comes from the Sino-American confrontation over Taiwan and from ideological or psychological warfare. It is concluded, therefore, that closer ties with the U. S. is not good for the peace and security of Asia. Better communications, the solution of the Taiwan problem and better domestic policies, it is suggested, are essential for this purpose.     

成品油税费改革对公路客运企业定价影响的经济学分析

成品油税费改革对公路客运企业定价的影响主要体现在对公路客运企业运输成本的影响。通过对公路客运企业运输成本构成的分析,说明成品油税费改革对公路客运企业的定价会产生较大的影响,进而对不同车型的车辆运输成本变化进行了计算,分析出其运行里程的平衡点,设计出成本变化计算模型,可以使客运企业能较为方便、准确的判别自身运输成本的变化幅度。根据客运企业受影响的程度,可以采取争取政策支持、优化车型结构和线路等对策,尤其是针对中小型客运企业,提出了实行自由连锁这一创新模式,以促进企业自身和交通市场的良性发展。