Consumption,Credit, and Macroeconomic Policies: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Abstract

The paper examines determinants of private consumption in the USA. The empirical model includes disposable income, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the interest rate, and the real effective exchange rate. Anticipated movements in these determinants are likely to affect planned consumption, while unanticipated changes determine cyclical consumption. Fluctuations in private consumption are mostly cyclical with respect to changes in disposable income and the consumers’ sentiment index. In contrast, an increase in the interest rate decreases both planned and cyclical consumption. Fiscal policy has a direct negative effect on cyclical consumption, which is not dependent on the interest rate. Monetary growth, in contrast, increases liquidity to finance both planned and cyclical private consumption.     

Inflation and Relative Price Variability: New Evidence for the United States

This article provides new evidence on the empirical relationship between inflation and relative prices in the United States. In line with the predictions of recent monetary search models, we find that the impact of expected inflation on relative price variability (RPV) has disappeared during the recent period when inflation expectations have been stabilized on a low level. Endogenous break‐point tests are applied to identify the timing and to confirm the significance of the changing role of inflation for RPV. The empirical findings are robust with respect to different price indices, disaggregation levels, and measurement concepts.     

Differential Tariffs and Income Inequality in the United States: Some Evidence from the States

Open Economies Review - This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of consumption tariffs and materials tariffs. It highlights the contrasting effects of consumption and...     

How Forward Looking Are Consumers? Further Evidence for the United States

This paper extends a standard model of consumption to test for the existence of “myopic” consumers. The extended model includes “rule-of-thumb” consumers as well as consumers who are assumed to solve a dynamic programming problem. The model allows this second set of consumers, however, to be “boundedly rational.” For a variety of reasons, they may be unable to fully account for their future uncertain labor income. The model predicts that this inability to correctly value future resources leads to the breakdown of the simple permanent income hypothesis and that consumption responds to predictable changes in income. Using data for the United States for the period 1951-1990, the paper finds evidence of such myopic behavior.     

Evidence of Large-Scale Social Interactions in Mammography in the United States

This paper examines the extent of social interactions in an individual’s decision to undergo mammography. Using Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System surveys from 1993 to 2016, the effect of other female screening behavior on an individual’s decision to have a routine breast cancer screening was measured by calculating the size of a so called “social multiplier” in mammography. A vector of social multipliers was estimated in the use of mammograms in the past 1–2 years by taking the ratio of group-level effects of exogenous explanatory variables to individual-level effects of the same variables. Peer groups were defined as same-aged women living in the same state. Three age groups of women were considered: 40–49, 50–74, and 75 and older. Several econometric approaches were used to analyze the effect of social interactions on mammography use, including ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and split-sample instrumental variable. For all women, evidence was found of social interactions associated with individual’s education, employment, and poor health. In addition, number of age-group-specific social multipliers was found. The strongest evidence of spillover in mammography was found for women ages 75 and older. Policy makers should be aware that, in the presence of a social multiplier, the value of any type of screening intervention is higher than the one that would be measured at the individual-level.

     

亚太地区对美国出口、汇率波动及其影响

本文首先分析亚洲主要经济体对美国出口的商品构成,确定这些经济体在美国市场的竞争关系;利用日数据分析这些经济体货币的波动特点,采用协整技术建立汇率波动与对美国出口的数量关系。研究结果表明,汇率变化对出口贸易影响非常小,本币升值不可能减少经常项目的贸易顺差。     

Movement of natural persons and the sieve of immigration policy: Evidence from United States

Review of World Economics - This article examines the trends and determinants of temporary movement of foreign workers (viz., mode 4 or movement of natural persons under trade ambits) into the...     

美国典型情报分析理论研究综述

情报分析是情报处理工作的核心,以高质量的情报服务于决策,是所有国家维护利益和运用实力的必要保障。美国情报理论界对于情报分析理论的探讨早已成为百家争鸣之势,其集合的大量成熟的分析技巧、方法和经验,代表了当今世界情报理论研究的最高水平。文章通过系统地研究美国典型的情报分析理论,探寻其内在的特点规律,揭示情报分析理论与实践的创新进展。     

跨国并购比较优势论与实证检验

跨国并购是跨国公司在全球范围内配置资源并完善生产体系的一种重要投资方式,以往有关跨国并购动因理论的研究忽视了在经济全球化背景下从国际贸易理论角度的研究。基于此,本文对比较优势理论对跨国并购活动的适用性通过模型进行论证,同时运用中国数据,借助巴拉萨显性比较优势指数进行实证检验,得出比较优势构成跨国并购的基础这一结论,进而从全球化的视角形成对跨国并购活动的客观认识和正确态度。最后根据跨国并购比较优势论的实际经济意义,提出中国对待外资并购的相关政策选择。     

Substantive Black Political Representation: Evidence from Matching Estimates in the United States House of Representatives

I seek to determine whether race is a factor in how black representatives vote in the United States House of Representatives; if so, this suggests electing more black representatives may improve the economic and political position of blacks if policy positions taken by black representatives on bills that fail to pass would provide tangible positive impacts to members of the black community if passed. Confounding the impact of legislator race, districts represented by blacks on average are quite different than those represented by whites. While past research on this topic uses linear regression techniques with undesirable properties, I improve on past research using matching techniques with more desirable properties. Utilizing a combination of Mahalanobis and propensity score matching, within-caliper matching, and exact matching using data from the 100th–113th Congress, I show black representatives are more likely to vote in agreement with the majority of the Congressional Black Caucus on all votes and on Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, Americans for Democratic Action, and Congressional Quarterly key votes, indicating a substantive racial impact on roll-call voting.     

Regulation and the Valuation Relevance of Book Value and Earnings: Evidence from the United States*

Electric utilities in the United States are subject to a cost-plus normal profits pricing that is designed to align the market value of equity with the balance sheet book value. Perfect alignment implies the equality of the market and book values. Extant empirical evidence suggests that, for these utilities, actual cost/profit recovery does not follow a pure cost-plus pricing, raising the prospect that income statement items contribute to the determination of market value. What is not obvious is the extent to which the noted departure from pure cost-plus pricing results in misalignment of the market and book values, or the relative contribution of income statement items to the valuation of electric utility shares. This study pursues this question, using benchmark results for a sample of manufacturing firms to highlight the degree of market-to-book alignment for regulated and competitive firms. The results show a considerable alignment of the market and book values for utilities. In examining the relevance of book value and income statement items in the determination of market value, it is found that the contribution of earnings level to explaining market value diminishes markedly in the presence of book value for electric utilities, and the contribution of earnings change to explaining returns diminishes markedly in the presence of earnings levels. Earnings level complements book value in explaining market value for manufacturing firms, while earnings change complements earnings level in explaining returns. The results further show that the market and accounting values exhibit pronounced misalignments in returns-earnings models, especially for utilities.     

企业出口模式与出口产品质量:微观理论与经验证据

文章借鉴Khandelwal et al.(2013)扩展的产品质量异质性模型,构建了一个两国之间产品贸易的一般均衡模型,并推导企业出口模式选择影响产品质量升级的理论框架,再利用2000-2013年中国工业企业和海关数据构建双重差分模型对理论假说进行系统检验。结果发现:(1)直接出口企业对产品质量的提升效应明显高于间接出口企业,"反事实"检验和安慰剂检验的结果依然稳健。(2)通过异质性分析发现,东部地区企业出口的产品质量提升效应显著高于中西部地区企业,而且中西部地区的间接出口抑制出口产品质量提升;民营、外资企业直接出口和间接出口对产品质量提升效应均高于国有企业。(3)进一步研究企业出口模式的动态转换效应发现,企业由间接出口转向直接出口显著提升了出口产品质量,并且生产率较高的企业通过提升出口固定成本效率而加速出口产品质量升级。     

实际汇率、外国收入对出口的影响——中国对美国出口的实证分析

文章在中关两国1979—2004年数据基础上研究中国对美国出口与人民币实际汇率和美国收入水平之间的关系,通过实证分析,发现出口与实际汇率和收入之间具有相同的变化趋势,进而对三者进行单位根检验和协整检验,确定具有长期均衡关系,这表明中国对美国的出口在很大程度上取决于实际汇率和美国的收入水平。     

美国：险滩已过

由于全球大宗商品价格的上涨，美国的进出口贸易逆差首次出现扩大。工业生产似乎也出现转好的趋势。银行压力测试的结果又极大的提振了投资者的信心。但是，目前最令美国人困扰的事情之一，应当是持续增长的失业水平，尽管政府部门努力提供更多岗位，整体就业人数仍在减少。就业危机凸显了经济衰退，如果不妥善解决，将对长远发展不利。除此之外，美国企业似乎也得学会调整其战略与服务。因为就目前来看，铺张浪费的美国人正在日益节俭。     

Labour-market effects of intra-industry trade: Evidence for the United Kingdom

Labor-Market Effects of Intra-Industry Trade: Evidence for the United Kingdom. — According to the “smooth adjustment hypothesis”, the labor-market adjustment costs entailed by trade liberalization are lower if trade expansion is intra-industry rather than inter-industry in nature. In this paper, we study the link between trade and labor market changes in UK manufacturing industries during the 1980s. We use industry-level measures of unemployment duration and wage variability as proxies for adjustment costs, and we relate them to various measures of intra-industry trade. Our evidence offers some support for the smooth adjustment hypothesis.     

Do private capital markets insure regional risk? Evidence from the United States and Europe

A striking feature of international economic relations is the limited extent of intertemporal trade and risk-sharing among nations. This paper uses data on consumption, income, and production from regions of the United States to address the question of whether the limited participation of national economies in international capital markets is a fundamental aspect of economic relations among large geographic regions, or whether it is specifically an artifact of international economic relations. We conclude that capital flows among the regions of the United States are significantly larger than those across countries. However, such private markets still provide a relatively limited degree of insurance against regional fluctuations.