SECTORAL ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION AND RETURNS TO SCALE IN SOUTH AFRICA

Elasticity of substitution and returns to scale are estimated on a sectoral basis for South Africa using panel-based generalised least square procedure. Apart from sectoral differences in terms of elasticity of substitution, the study found that elasticity of substitution is below unity in all of the sectors. Most of the sectors studied are found to have increasing returns to scale in production. The study further explores the implications of elasticity of factor substitution and returns to scale on growth and employment creation. It is argued that a greater number of jobs can be created from growth of sectors with constant or decreasing returns to scale than from the same level of output growth generated by sectors with increasing returns to scale. This is the case when the employment-creating potential of the same amount of additional output is compared in all the sectors examined. By virtue of scale economies, a sector like finance, insurance, real estate and business services generates more output with less proportional increase in inputs, which means growth in this sector may not have the desired impact on job creation. However, given the sector's large share (20%) of the country's total output and employment, it may generate more jobs, even if sectors like utilities and construction experience the same level of output growth. Given its importance for growth and employment, the study recommends further investigation into the reasons why elasticity of substitution is lower in sectors like utilities, mining and trade, catering and accommodation services.     

Internal Rebellions and External Threats: A Model of Government Organizational Forms in Ancient China

In ancient China, a ruler needed to handle both internal rebellions and external threats. To decrease the possibility of internal rebellions, a ruler could organize the government to establish the division of power among ministers. While effective in preventing internal rebellions, this approach could make the defense of the country against external threats less effective. The trade‐off between preventing internal rebellions and dealing with external threats in a ruler's choice of government organizational form is affected by factors such as the size of the population, the level of coordination efficiency, and the degree of increasing returns to the military sector. If the magnitude of external threats increases, regardless of the type of equilibrium organizational form, the equilibrium level of the concentration of power among division heads increases.     

International trade and the relative dispersion of industrial wages and production techniques in 14 OECD countries, 1970–1985

The Factor Price Equalization theorem implies that freer trade would narrow the gap in returns to similar productive factors across countries over time. To determine the empirical relevance of this implication, data for 11 industries in 14 countries over the period 1970–1985 are investigated. Moreover, the paper examines the data for seven industries in the nontrade sector. Regression analyses suggest that the industry-level wages across countries are significantly influenced by the relative dispersion of production techniques at the industry level and, to a lesser extent, by international trade. The estimation of a wage model indicates that the diffusion of technology may have also played a role in the apparent convergence of wages. The findings of this paper suggest that FPE is capable of explaining the cross-country variation in returns to productive factors.     

Machine-reeling technology diffusion in early Meiji Japan's silk industry

Using 1880 s panel data from Yamanashi and Gifu prefectures in Japan, we estimated the diffusion factors and total factor productivity (TFP) in machine-reeling technology in Japan's silk-reeling sector. While the cost of distance through the traditional highway from the Shimosuwa-shuk post town in the Nagano Prefecture has a negative correlation with technology diffusion, the correlation of silk production per population is positive. Machine-reeling technology is raw-material-intensive and does not show increasing returns to scale. While the TFP in Yamanashi is higher than in Gifu, machine-reeling output expansion is larger in the latter.     

Externalities,Cross-Sectoral Spillovers and Productivity Growth

We provide an interpretation of the productivity dynamics in the manufacturing sector based on the idea of the thick market externality à la Diamond. An econometric model has been estimated which allows to disentangle the long run effects of these trading externalities from those of internal economies of scale and of aggregate industry-level economies. The results obtained—based on a cointegrated system of non-linear-error-correction equations—confirm the hypothesis that the trading externality matters. Moreover, our findings point out that the emphasis generally posited both on internal and external economies of scale is not justified.     

Technological adaptation, trade, and growth

Technological Adaptation, Trade, and Growth. — Based on Grossman and Helpman’s 1991 seminal work, the authors provide a simple model extension where innovations created in the high-tech sector may be assimilated or adapted by the lowtech sector, thus generating nondecreasing returns in the production function of the latter. When applying a Heckscher-Ohlin framework the authors find that the effects of technological diffusion allow a country relatively scarce in human capital to benefit from nondecreasing rates of growth through its low-tech sector. They test this idea by using a dynamic panel data approach in order to deal with simultaneity and country heterogeneity. Their results are consistent with the predictions of the model and robust to a broad range of definitions of technological intensity.     

比较优势、规模经济和贸易成本:国际生产分割下垂直关联产业的空间分布

在国际生产分工背景下,比较优势和规模经济成为影响企业生产区位的重要因素。本文在新经济地理框架下构建开放条件下理论模型,探讨不同贸易成本下比较优势和规模经济对垂直关联产业空间分布的影响。结果刻画出在比较优势和规模经济共同作用下,伴随贸易成本变化出现的4种垂直关联产业空间分布模式。表明我国目前所处的国际分工地位是在现有贸易成本条件下比较优势和规模经济相互作用的均衡结果,而吸引上游产业在中国聚集是实现我国产业结构升级的合理路径。     

The Harris-Todaro model and economies of scale

The authors attempt to reanalyze the Harris-Todaro migration model in the presence of economies of scale in the manufacturing sector, focusing on economies of scale that are external to a given firm but internal to the industry.     

Trade in services and returns on multinational activity

Conclusion This note has attempted to clarify both the theoretical and empirical reasons why the returns on the performance of a foreign subsidiary’s operations ought to be seen as returns on firm-specific knowledge (FSKs) which should be included in discussion of trade in services. This difficult task was not accomplished in a satisfactory manner by Ramstetter and Lee. It is entirely inappropriate to unbundle the activities of MNEs into returns on financial investment and a residual used to proxy payments for FSK. Rugman [1987] did not assume that the opportunity cost of financial capital is zero; rather that the “investment” activity of the MNE cannot be divorced from its FSK. The MNE uses internal markets as an integrated process to transfer FSK across national borders, raising theoretical and empirical issues for the international accounting of trade in services.     

ASEAN FTA,distribution of income,and globalization

This paper examines the impact of Free Trade Agreements on income distribution within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and between the members and their trading partners outside ASEAN. The study uses a Computable General Equilibrium model, a modified version of the 57 sector, 87 country, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) integrated model of national input–output tables, version-6.2 (2001 database) with its reserve matrix facility, to simulate income distribution results as an outcome of certain parameter changes that appear in intra and inter regional trade.Within ASEAN, trade liberalization will stimulate the output of each country within the region according to their comparative advantage. Since trade liberalization tends to increase output of capital-intensive goods more than labor-intensive goods, the less-developed countries within the region tend to get smaller benefits compared to other member countries. In addition, the physical means of production tend to gain more relative to the gains of labor from the FTAs. This tends to widen the income gap between high-income and low-income households within ASEAN.Comparing ASEAN and the developed non-ASEAN countries, an FTA within ASEAN tends to reduce the returns to labor of the developed non-member countries and narrow the income gap between ASEAN, as a whole, and those rich countries since capital-intensive products of developing countries are often labor-intensive goods of developed countries.     

Returns to scale,imperfect competition and aggregate demand and trade policy effects in a two-country model

This paper constructs a simple general equilibrium two-country model with flexible exchange rates, specialization in production, and oligopolistic firms. The model is simulated in order to investigate how returns to scale and imperfect competition influence the process through which the aggregate demand and trade policy effects are transmitted internationally. The possibility that aggregate demand and trade policies enacted by one country can have beggar my neighbor effects on the other country cannot be excluded.     

中国出口贸易结构影响产业结构的机制——基于贸易内生技术进步经济增长模型的实证研究

文章基于贸易内生技术进步经济增长模型,实证研究了中国1994—2010年间出口贸易结构影响产业结构的机制,发现出口贸易部门对非贸易部门技术外溢的正外部性影响促进了中国经济与产业发展,但中国各出口贸易结构部门以及整体出口贸易部门的全要素生产率水平依然较低,并由此提出通过实施贸易商品结构战略化、贸易方式结构一般化、贸易主体结构民营化以及贸易区域结构多元化来加速产业结构升级。     

The Impact of Computers on Productivity in the Trade Sector: Explorations with Dutch Microdata

The impact of computers on productivity in the Dutch trade sector during the period 1988-1994 is examined. The analysis is based on a panel data set derived from the Production Survey of Statistics Netherlands, which includes data on output, employment, wages, and various types of investment. A new method is developed to estimate IT- and non-IT capital stocks for each firm based on investment flows and booked depreciation figures by firm. A Cobb-Douglas production function setting is used to study the effect of computer capital stock on productivity. We find that computers contributed positively to productivity, even when firm-specific effects such as labour quality are accounted for. In retail trade computers yielded returns above their relatively high rental price. For wholesaling, no evidence for excessive returns is found. The rates of return were not subject to a decline in the period studied, in contrast to findings for the US. This suggests that the Netherlands has been lagging in the application of IT compared to the US and that further productivity boosting effects can be expected.     

Balanced‐budget rule,distortionary taxes and aggregate stability

It has been established under perfect competition and constant returns‐to‐scale that a one‐sector growth model may exhibit multiple stationary equilibria and local indeterminacy when income tax rates are endogenously determined by a balanced‐budget rule while government expenditures are fixed. The present paper shows that determinacy of the equilibrium trajectory is, however, generically preserved for a non‐empty range of initial values of the capital stock.     

内外部冲击下中国股市网络的动态演化和 稳健性分析

股市的平稳运行是实现金融发展、金融稳定和金融安全的重要一环。文章基于复杂网络理论,以2015年股灾和2018年中美贸易战为背景,分别构建不同时期中国股市的MST网络,探索在不同类型冲击下我国股市网络的结构特征,将最小生成树方法和滑动分析相结合,研究我国股市网络动态演化的时变特征和稳健性。结果表明,不同时期股市网络MST结构变化较大;不同时期网络节点的度分布均服从幂律分布,且中心性节点在冲击发生前,集中出现在工业领域,而冲击中、后期则更多地出现在金融领域;股市网络连通性和稳健性会因为冲击类型不同而出现差别,内部冲击(2015年股灾)会降低同行业连接边数,而外部冲击(中美贸易战)则会增加同行业连接边数,且前者比后者对股市网络结构的影响更大,市场对于内部冲击的抵御能力更弱;虽然内外部冲击短期内对网络连接的稳健性冲击不大,但从长期看,网络连接的存活率会急剧下降,网络结构稳健性随时间变化而减弱。     

New Evidence on the Gains from Trade

We summarize the evidence on the gains from trade in monopolistic competition models, arising from three sources: (i) price reductions due to increasing returns to scale; (ii) increased product variety available to consumers; (iii) self-selection of firms with only the most efficient firms surviving after trade liberalization. There is little direct evidence to support the first source of gains from trade, though some indirect evidence from the European Union. The second and third sources of gains from trade find strong empirical support from studies from various countries, relying on new models and new empirical methods. JEL no. F10, F12, F15     

Increasing returns to scale from variable capacity utilization

We propose a unique model in which the firm varies capacity utilization by a variable number of shifts when facing demand fluctuations. In the long run, the firm optimally chooses a capacity level based on expected demand conditions. In the short run, when facing excess demand, the firm can increase variable inputs and the number of shifts to intensify the use of existing capacity. By endogenizing cost, demand and variability of capacity utilization, we show that variable capacity utilization can lead to increasing returns to scale. Hence, we predict increasing returns to scale when an economy expands in a business cycle.     

International Trade and Firms' Heterogeneity under Monopolistic Competition

This article studies the interactions between international trade and firms' heterogeneity by proposing a tractable model consistent with the stylised facts. The model describes, in a general equilibrium framework, two economies producing and trading two goods, one homogeneous and the other differentiated. In the differentiated-good sector, firms are heterogeneous by their marginal cost, in a context of monopolistic competition with free-entry and exit. They incur a fixed production cost, but also a fixed cost if they choose to export. We show that trade in differentiated goods increases industry-wide efficiency, through two different logics: one defensive and import-driven; the other offensive and export-driven.     

Exchange Rate Pass-through in a Small Open Economy: the Importance of the Distribution Sector

The degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic goods prices has important implications for monetary policy in small open economies with floating exchange rates. Evidence indicates that pass-through is faster to import prices than to consumer prices. Price setting behaviour in the distribution sector is suggested as one important explanation. If distribution costs and trade margins are important price components of imported consumer goods, adjustment of import prices and consumer prices to exchange rate movements may differ. We present evidence on these issues for Norway by estimating a cointegrated VAR model for the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector, paying particular attention to exchange rate channels likely to operate through trade margins. Embedding this model into a large scale macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy, which inter alia includes the pricing-to-market hypothesis and price-wage and wage-wage spirals between industries, we find exchange rate pass-through to be quite rapid to import prices and fairly slow to consumer prices. We show the importance of the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector in that trade margins act as cushions to exchange rate fluctuations, thereby delaying pass-through significantly to consumer prices. A forecasting exercise demonstrates that exchange rate pass-through to trade margins has not changed in the wake of the financial crises and the switch to inflation targeting. We also find significant inflationary effects of exchange rate changes even in the short run, an insight important for inflation targeting central banks.     

中欧贸易流量影响因素与作用机制的实证分析

随着欧洲经济一体化的深化与扩大,中欧贸易取得了快速发展。欧洲内部大市场的建成和完善不仅会影响成员国的生产与贸易,也将影响中欧贸易。本文从欧盟成员国的生产和贸易结构调整入手,在引力模型框架下使用面板协整技术,就欧洲经济一体化对中欧贸易的影响程度与作用机制进行研究。结果显示:从长期来看,贸易效应、生产效应、经济规模及汇率因素对均衡的中欧贸易流量有不同程度的影响;短期在生产效应和贸易效应的共同作用下,中欧贸易顺差有扩大趋势。