我国个人所得税的收入分配效应分析

个人所得税收入分配效应的强弱受其累进性和平均税率的影响。本文采用不同收入数据分析了税制设计和居民收入水平对个人所得税累进性、平均税率及其收入分配效应的影响。不管居民收入分布状态是否均匀,我国个人所得税在2011年和2018年改革前后都能发挥缩小收入差距的作用。虽然改革弱化了个人所得税的收入分配效应,但是随着居民收入水平的提高,个人所得税在调节收入分配方面的作用会逐渐加强。     

家庭收入风险对中国农村居民营养摄入水平的影响

本文使用中国营养与健康调查(CHNS)数据分析了收入风险对农村居民食物消费和营养摄入的影响。两阶段GMM估计结果表明收入风险较大对居民日均热量摄入有显著负的影响。进一步的研究发现这主要是由于收入风险提高导致居民减少在蛋白质和脂肪方面的摄入。本文的研究表明在缺乏社会保障以及收入水平较低的情况下,农村居民无法有效避免收入风险对基本生活消费的影响,突出了加强农村社会保障体系建设和稳定农村居民收入水平的必要性。     

不同视角下的中国城镇社会保障制度与收入再分配——基于年度收入和终生收入的经验分析

本文利用中国社会科学院经济研究所收入分配课题组1995年和2002年两次城镇居民住户调查数据，从不同的角度分析了中国城镇社会保障制度在收入再分配方面发挥的作用。我们发现总体上中国城镇社会保障制度缩小了个人收入差距，降低了相对贫困率，具有正的再分配效应。但社会保障对劳动年龄人群和老年人群的收入再分配作用非常不同，社会保障的再分配主要不是通过收入阶层间的再分配，而是通过代际间的收入再分配实现的。高收入人群通过社会保障体系转移出去的收入很少，中国社会保障费用负担的累进性很低。另外，与1995年相比，2002年时社会保障缩小收入差距的作用下降，相对贫困率有所上升。我们还发现从劳动年龄人群代际内的收入转移看，以终生收入为基础估计的养老保险制度的长期收入再分配效应大干以年度收入为基础估计的当期再分配效应，机关和事业单位人员是否实行改革后的养老保险方案对整个养老保险制度的长期收入再分配效应的影响非常大。     

再分配领域的政府干预与“全面小康”的社会目标

中国经济体制改革进行了20多年,经济持续高速增长,人民生活水平得到了巨大的改善,但同时中国也出现了较大的贫富差别,这与中国社会主义市场经济的目标是不相符的.     

个人所得税对收入分配的影响:由税收累进性和平均税率观察

个人所得税收入调节作用的发挥取决于税制的累进程度和平均税率。从税收累进性和平均税率两方面对我国个人所得税的再分配效应进行解析,得到以下三点基本判断:第一,我国个人所得税的法定累进水平和实际累进水平均已达到发达国家水平;第二,我国个人所得税的平均税率大大低于世界平均水平;第三,我国个人所得税的再分配力度非常小,而平均税率过低是制约我国个人所得税收入调节功能发挥的最主要障碍。因此加强个人所得税收入调节功能的关键是在坚持综合课税改革方向的基础上,通过完善税收征管,不断拓宽个人所得税的课税面、提高其占个人收入的比重。     

The Poverty of Politics: How Income Redistribution Hurts the Poor

In spite of the significant research literature identifying a tradeoff between income redistribution and economic growth, massive public programs have been implemented to help the poor by transferring income to them. Since Lyndon Johnson's war on poverty began in 1964, over 3.5 trillion dollars have been transferred. However, the possibility that everyone, including the poor, may in fact be made worse off by the transfer has largely been ignored. With a simple algebraic model, the authors demonstrate that, over time, both high and low-income groups are harmed by redistribution. In addition, social mobility, as well as political concerns with relative poverty and international income redistribution increases the damage to all income groups produced by redistribution.     

我国个人所得税的再分配效应及国际比较

个人所得税是调节收入分配差距的重要手段之一。文章认为：整个考察期间,除2006年外,我国个人所得税制发挥了正向、且进一步加强的再分配效应。但与其它国家相比,其调节效果非常有限。主要原因在于：我国个人所得税没有发挥主体地位,在制度设计上存在严重缺陷,而且在税收征管上也存在许多漏洞。因此,为了更好地发挥其应有的再分配效应,全面的个人所得税制改革迫在眉睫。     

Income Uncertainty and Wealth Accumulation: How Precautionary are Taiwanese Households?*

To assess how recent job loss impacts wealth accumulation of Taiwanese households, the present study investigates the empirical relevance of the precautionary saving motive to explain measures of wealth during the past 2 decades. This study demonstrates that households facing increased transitory shock accumulate increased amounts of financial and housing wealth, whereas permanent shocks cause households to accumulate housing wealth only. Empirical results suggest an important policy implication: households in Taiwan will save less when social insurance policies are effective in reducing future transitory and permanent shocks to household income.     

The Effects of Differential Income Replacement and Mortality on U.S. Social Security Redistribution

We study redistribution via the U.S. Social Security retirement system for cohorts of men born during the second half of the 20th century. Our focus is on redistribution across race and education groups. The cohorts we study are younger than cohorts studied in previous, similar research and thus more exposed to recent increases in earnings inequality. All else equal, this should increase the degree of progressivity of Social Security redistribution due to the structure of the benefit formula. However, we find that redistribution is only modestly progressive for individuals born as late as 1980. Differential mortality rates across race and education groups are the primary explanation. While Black–White mortality gaps have narrowed some in recent years, they remain large and dull progressivity. Mortality gaps by education level are also large and unlike the gaps by race, they are widening, which puts additional regressive pressure on Social Security redistribution.     

农村社会养老保险收入再分配模型及实证分析——基于新农保的实践

2009年,我国农村社会养老保险在老农保基础上进行了制度创新,在坚持个人账户的同时,引入财政直接补贴的基础养老金制度,形成新农保制度框架,经试点后于2014年2月推广为城乡统一的居民社会养老保险制度。发端于新农保的居民社会养老保险改革具有更强的收入再分配特点,促进了社会公平。文章基于新农保实践,构建净收益收入再分配模型,通过实证分析测算代际内部、代际之间和城乡之间养老金收入再分配效果。     

Optimal Hedging Under Price,Quantity and Exchange Rate Uncertainty

Abstract: This paper derives an optimal hedging strategy for a primary producer under price, quantity and exchange rate uncertainty. In this model, it is assumed that the producer is a mean-variance maximizer with an exponential utility function. The derived optimal hedge ratio for the commodity is proportional to the coefficient of the commodity futures prices bias in a linear regression where revenue uncertainty is the dependent variable. This ratio differs from the result that would have been obtained under price-quantity uncertainty when revenues are significantly correlated with the exchange rate variability, thereby suggesting that the foreign exchange risk is relevant only when the commodity exposure is unhedged. The model is empirically tested using Côte-d'Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria as cocoa producers and the US Dollar and the French Franc as currencies of numeraire to hedge UK Pound revenues. The resulting cocoa hedge ratios range from 78 to 57 percent. For Ghana and the Côte-d'Ivoire, there is little correlation between revenue and exchange rate variability. Therefore, the cocoa ratio is not significantly affected by the introduction of this additional source of uncertainty and the currency ratio in the joint hedge is trivial for both the dollar and the franc. Nigeria's revenues are correlated to the dollar and the cocoa ratio is de facto lowered by the currency effect in a joint cocoa-dollar hedge. Résumé: Cet article presente un modele de couverture optimale a terme contre les risques conjoints de prix, de quantite et de change pour un producteur de matieres premieres dont l'objectif est de maximiser ses revenus. Le taux de couverture optimal est proportionnel au coeficent obtenu dans une regression simple des revenus ou le biais des prix a terme est la variable independente. Ce taux ne direre de celui obtenu dans un modele d'incertitude prix-quantite que lorsque l'incertitude de quantite est correlee a celle de change. Ceci suggere a contrario qu'une couverture optimale du risque des prix de matieres premieres permet en meme temps de parer au risque de change.     

Optimal Tax Theory: The Journey from the Negative Income Tax to the Earned Income Tax Credit

What lessons do we learn from optimal tax theory for the design of income redistribution programs? I modify a standard model of optimal nonlinear income taxation with discrete types to consider differences in both earning ability and the disutility of effort. This gives a role for “workfare” in the optimal tax policy. The existence of screening mechanisms can play a role in explaining non‐participation in cash and in‐kind redistribution programs, including Progresa‐Oportunidades, Lifeline Telephone subsidies, and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). Stigma can increase efficiency of a redistribution program by discouraging participation by individuals near the eligibility thresholds. The Family Assistance Program proposed in the early 1970s lacked adequate stigma for nonworkers, which contributed to a lack of political support. In contrast, the current Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) provides greater benefits to workers than to nonworkers. Thus the EITC does not require any stigma to screen out individuals who do not work from obtaining benefits. Reasons for separate income support programs for nonworkers and for workers are discussed.     

Redistribution and Federal finance

A key issue of taxation policy since the 1980s is how governments can raise sufficient revenue for social protection and redistribution and to respond to the needs for public spending associated with rapid economic integration. A unique aspect of Australia's federal finance arrangements is horizontal equalization. This paper examines its origins in the federation debates and draws parallels between Australian economic history and the current experience of globalization. It assesses the impact and implications of the neoliberal transformation of the 1980s and 1990s on key institutions of Australian public finance, and suggests possible principles and solutions for tax policy in the twenty–first century.     

Optimal Accounting Method of Income Taxes for Chinese Enterprises under New Environment

Due to the strengthening principle-based accounting system by Chinese government, the rapid development of business merges and re-organizations, and accounting revisions aiming to restrict accounting frauds, the temporary differences of income taxes are increasing greatly and showing many varieties. This paper examines advantages of the tax consequence method, especially the balance sheet liability method, in dealing with temporary differences of income taxes over the tax payable method. These advantages are quite significant in aspects of accounting aims and information relevancy. By taking certain measures to improve the reliability of information and reduce its applying cost, the balance sheet liability method is shown to be an optimal accounting choice for Chinese enterprises.     

The Timing of Redistribution

We investigate whether late redistribution programs that can be targeted toward low income families, but that may distort savings decisions, can “dominate” early redistribution programs that cannot be targeted as a result of information constraints. We use simple two‐period overlapping generations models with heterogeneous agents under six policy regimes: a model calibrated to the U.S. economy (benchmark), two early redistribution (lump sum) regimes, two (targeted) late redistribution regimes, and finally a model without taxes and redistribution. Redistribution programs are financed by a labor tax on the young generation and a capital tax on the old generation. We argue that if the programs are small in size, late redistribution can dominate early redistribution in terms of welfare but not in terms of real output. Better targeting of low income households cannot completely offset savings distortions. In addition, we find that the optimal transfer and tax policy implies a capital tax of 100% and transfers exclusively to the young generation.     

Income and wealth

Barclay, Sir P. 1995: Income and Wealth, Volume 1, Joseph Rowntree Inquiry. York: Joseph Rowntree Foundation, £9 paper.

Hills, J. 1995: Income and Wealth. Volume 2, Joseph Rowntree Inquiry. York: Joseph Rowntree Foundation, £9 paper; £15 if both volumes ordered together.