Government spending and the distribution of economic growth

In the United States, total government spending, and especially government social spending, has increased greatly over the last 50 years. What effect this has had on economic growth is a subject of intense debate among politicians, policymakers, and economists. However, there has been less attention paid to the distributional effects of government spending even though economic inequality has grown greatly over the last generation and much social spending is at least indirectly intended to reduce inequality. The effects of government social spending in the United States on growth in family income at deciles of the income distribution were estimated. The results suggested that social spending but not non‐social spending was likely to increase growth in family income per capita measured over 10‐year intervals. The largest effects of social spending were for deciles below the median income. At no point in the distribution does social spending have a negative effect.     

Trade and GDP Growth: Causal Relations in the United States and Canada

Causal relations between the growth rates of exports, imports, and the GDP of Canada and the United States are studied using the vector error correction (VEC) model. Utilizing time-series annual data (1948-1996), Granger causality tests are performed within the framework of the VEC model. Bidirectional causality is supported for Canada from the foreign sector to GDP and vice versa. A weaker relationship between the foreign sector and GDP is statistically supported for the United States. These results are also supported by comparing the total trade (exports plus imports) shares to GDP of the two neighboring economies. The Granger causality tests suggest that Canada is a more open economy than the United States and more trade dependent.     

窥探美国外贸政策的方向标——TPA授权析解

TPA是美国外贸法中一种独特的授权模式。该模式保障美国总统在贸易谈判中的可信度,确保国会在谈判前、中、后的核心地位;促使美国在历次重大贸易协定谈判中占据有利位置,维护了"府会"良好合作关系。本文旨在通过探讨TPA的法律机理与历史演进,分析其价值,管窥其未来发展趋向。     

The Rise (and Decline?) of Arab Aid: Generosity and Allocation in the Oil Era

Among non-DAC donors, wealthy Arab states are some of the most prolific contributors of foreign aid. Despite this, relatively little is known about Arab foreign aid. The OECD development database offers a paucity of information, aggregating data for “Arab countries” and “Arab agencies,” without identifying the constituent units of either. A further complication is that Arab donors are not uniformly transparent about their aid efforts, publicizing some of them while keeping other donations secret. In this paper, we advance the state of knowledge of Arab foreign aid in a number of ways. We use AidData to document the trends in reported donations from specific bilateral donors (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) and multilateral agencies (Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa, OPEC’s Fund for International Development, and the Islamic Development Bank). Notably, Arab bilateral donors have given less generously over time with aid levels remaining relatively stable despite skyrocketing national wealth. We explore reasons for this decline, including that Arab donors have: shifted their giving from bilateral to multilateral channels, given less as DAC donors have given more, and increased domestic spending at the expense of foreign aid with a view to safeguarding regime security. In addition, we look at the sectoral allocations of Arab bilateral and multilateral organizations, and compare the aid practices of Arab donors to their DAC counterparts. Finally, we suggest why an exclusive focus on aid commitments is problematic where Arab aid is concerned.     

U.S. inflation and the import demand of Ghana and Nigeria, 1967–1976

Conclusion Even though our empirical findings have shown that the sensitivity of the U.S. import demand of Ghana and Nigeria to the U.S. inflation rate is significant, especially in the case of Ghana, the effect of the inflation rate on imports is considerably understated. This understatement in the case of an LDC, unlike the MDCs, is due to statistical, political, and economic reasons. We may be tempted to suggest that if imports from tied aid are netted out, the degree of downward bias would be the same for the LDCs and MDCs. But this would be incorrect since the initial imports give rise to more imports over the years. For example, agricultural machinery purchased with tied aid will give rise to the importation of spare parts, etc., over the years. Hence this is not a simple once-and-for-all phenomenon. Inflation in a more developed country (MDC), such as the United States, may therefore have a greater inimical impact on the welfare of an LDC. This impact may be reduced considerably if the LDC can rescue the element of market choice in its spending of loans and grants from the MDCs. The large increases in oil prices since 1973 have enhanced the wealth of Nigeria immensely and partly cushioned the impact of U.S. inflation on this country. However, the lower elasticities shown in the case of Ghana indicate that the inflation may have had a greater detrimental effect on its welfare. For even though inflation had a significant effect on its import demand, the recorded elasticity is much less than unity even after an upward adjustment. The greater the inelasticity of import demand the more the country is bled of its reserves during a period of rapid inflation in a trading partner like the United States.     

The need for economic policy coordination between Europe,Japan, and the United States: Policy recommendations for the 1990s

Better policy coordination between Europe, Japan, and the United States is urgently needed in order to restore economic growth and to diminish mutual trade imbalances. Using the EC Compact model it is shown how coordinated fiscal policies can contribute to reaching these goals in the 1990s. For Europe, the most plausible fiscal policy option seems to be a combination of lower direct taxes, public spending cuts, and wage moderation; for Japan a more expansionary fiscal policy is feasible. For the United States, however, public spending cuts or tax increases are necessary conditions for better economic performance. In addition, for all three blocks a swap between tax reduction and wage moderation is recommended.     

Communist Party branch and labour rights: Evidence from Chinese entrepreneurs

This study examines the causal effects of having a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) branch on the coverage of labour contracts and social insurance among employees in private enterprises. Using a regression discontinuity design in a quasi-experimental framework, we find that having a Party branch has a significant effect on the coverage rates of individual and collective labour contracts as well as five social insurance schemes. The positive effect of having a Party branch on contract and social insurance coverage are weaker when the enterprise also has a trade union and staff representative congress, when the entrepreneur is a member of the CCP or the People's Congress or Political Consultative Conference and in provinces in which government intervention is lower or the private sector more developed. We find that firm-level mean wages and spending on training and occupational health and safety mediate the relationship between having a Party branch and labour rights.     

How Effective Is Foreign Aid at Improving Health Outcomes in Recipient Countries?

Since the United Nations’ establishment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2000 the world has observed an increasing trend in foreign aid provided by more affluent countries to developing nations. This paper examined whether foreign aid (total foreign aid and health sector aid) has been effective in improving the health of citizens in recipient nations since establishment of the MDGs. Five facets of population health were examined: infant mortality, life expectancy, the annual death rate, and immunizations against measles and diphtheria. Using a panel data set covering 90 developing countries, observed annually over 2001–2015, fixed-effects multivariate regressions with alternative specifications were estimated for each of these measures. The findings reveal that foreign aid has had little to no effect on population health since 2000. We found some evidence that foreign aid has improved life expectancy in developing countries, however, the effect is very small. In light of these findings, continued monitoring of the relationship between foreign aid and health outcomes would be both valuable and prudent.

     

Struggling against apartheid: The use of economic sanctions on South Africa

Conclusion It is clear that the United States is in a dominant position in relation to South Africa’s economy, which has an economic climate working against its decision to be isolated from world opinion. The apartheid policies have produced an economy that is severely distorted by its having a restricted market for its industrial products, a critical shortage of skilled labor, a high level of structural unemployment, a high and increasing military budget, and by its support of an economically unviable Bantustan system. These distortions, combined with record balance of payments deficits and a net disinvestment of foreign funds, have resulted in currency outflows that were covered by the United States providing decisive support for a $1.1 billion loan from the IMF. Contrary to the impression that has been promoted by the South African government, S.A. mineral exports are not crucial to the United States. However, South Africa does depend upon the United States for its export market of these minerals, which are essential for providing the necessary funds for governmental expenditures and foreign exchange that are needed in order to support its high import content industries. The large percentage that exports have in S.A.’s gross national product increases this vulnerability. Thus, if we look at the evidence, it is clear that the United States has viable sanctions that it can implement against South Africa’s inhuman political and social policies. Although the United States has these leverages it refuses to utilize them, even though it would be in its interest to do so. It is vital that those persons who are genuinely concerned about human rights and the apartheid system apply whatever pressure is necessary to force the U.S. government to immediately utilize these leverages in the form of sanctions that would force the S.A. government to change its policies. The black community must take the responsibility for leading this effort.     

国外经济援助的有效性:基于代际利他视角的研究

消费者是否具有代际利他动机,直接影响消费者的消费和储蓄决策。在本文中,作者利用一个具有代际利他动机的交叠世代模型研究国外经济援助的有效性。作者发现,国外经济援助对于受援国资本积累的影响是非线性的,具有一定的临界值效果。这一发现从一个不同的侧面支持了当代跨国经济增长研究中的"临界值效果"观点,有助于解释关于国外经济援助有效性的经验研究文献中广泛存在的争议;同时,也为进一步的计量研究指出了一个新的模型设定方向。     

对小区地下车库归属及相关问题的探究

关于小区地下车库归属的国外立法及判例不一。我国依据地下停车库产生的方式不同,分为利用人防工程改造的车库、开发商自行开发的作为非公共配套设施的车库和作为公共配套设施的车库三类,其具体归属有别。小区地下车库的停车法律关系有别于保管关系与租赁关系,构成无名合同。停车费也不能简单定性为保管费或租赁费,车库权属不同,停车费的性质也有差异,日本、美国和我国台湾地区的经验值得借鉴。     

Development assistance: Trade versus aid and the relative performance of industrial countries

Given that both theory and empirical analyses show that foreign trade and aid have similar effects on the development process, this study develops a methodology for assessing the joint (aid plus trade) contribution of industrial countries. The results show that countries like Sweden, Norway and Denmark, which are generally regarded as having liberal aid policies, perform below average when the combined effects of aid and trade are considered while the United Kingdom, Netherland and Belgium emerge as making maximum contributions to development. In addition, the trade practices of the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany largely offset these countries relatively poor aid record. The trade and aid contribution of the USSR and other socialist countries of Europe are also shown to fall far below that of the poorest performing DAC members. If the socialist countries matched average DAC performance measures their imports from developing countries would increase by $7 billion and their aid flows would be $3.1 billion higher. Finally, this study calls into question the rationale for uniform aid targets which do not account for the donor's differential trade contribution to the development effort.     

Does Aid for Roads Attract Foreign or Domestic Firms? Evidence from Cambodia

Less developed countries have received substantial foreign aid for transport infrastructure, making its quantitative assessment important. To investigate the effect of aid for road infrastructure on the location of foreign and domestic firms, this study employs the first comprehensive census on all business establishments in Cambodia for 2011 and measures the geographical distribution of aid disbursements in roads. Estimating a negative binomial model, we find that aid disbursements in roads have little influence on the entry of foreign and domestic firms across communes. Compared with the aid effect, the location of firms is more strongly influenced by other determinants such as population size, electricity access, and labor supply.     

The long‐run relationship between ODA,growth and governance: An application of FMOLS and DOLS approaches

Despite having received a significant amount of foreign aid for several decades, Africa is among the poorest regions in the world. This study examines the relationship between foreign aid, economic growth and governance in the African region during the period 1996–2014 by fully applying both DOLS and FMOLS techniques. In the first stage of this study, we examine the foreign aid effect on economic growth. In the second stage, we assess the intermediary role of institutions in the relationship between foreign aid and economic growth in the African countries. It was found that foreign aid has a negative effect on economic growth in African countries in both FMOLS and DOLS models. However, empirical results indicate that foreign aid improves economic growth in the presence of good institutional quality only in the DOLS model.     

Economic growth and income inequality in the Asia-Pacific region: A comparative study of China,Japan, South Korea,and the United States

This paper builds an inequality-growth-redistribution nexus, and applies the Engle–Granger two-step ECM approach to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between inequality and growth for four economies: China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Our estimation results support the S-shaped curve hypothesis relating GDP per capita to inequality with different starting points for the four economies. For the reverse relationship, we find a positive causal relationship for China, Japan, and the United States, indicating that increased income inequality spurred economic growth. In addition, we find mixed results on the effect of trade openness on inequality and growth. Trade openness reduced inequality in the United States and Japan, worsened it in China and had no significant effect in South Korea. In the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, exports provided an impetus to economic growth for Japan. As for redistribution, although fiscal redistributive measures reduced inequality in Japan, they played no major role in the other three countries. With regard to the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, all countries except for China show a negative effect of fiscal redistribution on GDP per capita.     

National and International Tests of the New Drug Cost Offset Theory

The new drug cost offset theory argues that new drugs pay for themselves by keeping people out of expensive medical facilities. However, few studies have tested this theory at the macroeconomic level to determine if system‐wide savings actually accrue. This article provides two tests of the new drug cost offset theory by examining the impact of new drugs on aggregate medical care costs using time‐series data for the United States and also by using a panel data set of countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. In support of the new drug cost offset theory, the results from both tests imply the typical new drug slows the growth of overall medical care spending.     

Aid for Trade in Developing Countries: Complex Linkages for Real Effectiveness*

Abstract: Aid for trade is intended to support the integration of developing countries into the world trading system. Although this form of aid is being hailed as a promising new development tool, it lacks the strategic dimension that it needs if it is to be truly effective and fulfill donors' policy commitments. From a theoretical perspective, this paper presents the various aid‐for‐trade categories and analyzes the linkages between foreign direct investment, aid for trade and development. It also presents a typology of trade‐related needs for a panel of countries, to serve as a guide for donors in formulating their aid supply strategies. This typology reveals a number of disparities between countries and regions, as well as a low level of regional integration. Trade‐related needs are particularly significant in West Africa and East Africa, and substantial in the infrastructure sector. This paper also stresses the importance of refining the formulation of actual demand by beneficiaries, structuring the aid supply in accordance with donors' specific areas of expertise and enhancing coordination among the various stakeholders, both public and private. Lastly, further trade liberalization will not by itself suffice to generate strong growth and improve the geographical and sectoral distribution of foreign direct investment. Factors such as political stability, the business climate, physical infrastructure, institutions and human capital also play a fundamental role. Of particular importance is the coherence of trade, sectoral, macroeconomic and tax policies, not only within each country and region but also between industrialized and developing countries.     

Antidumping and tariff Jumping: Japanese firms’ DFI in the European union and the United States

Antidumping and Tariff Jumping: Japanese Firms’ DFI in the European Union and the United States. — The relationship between EU and US antidumping measures and direct foreign investment (DFI) is examined through a micro-econometrical analysis of Japanese firms’ plant establishments in the electronics industry. After controlling for firm and industry capabilities, market size, transport cost, and product cycle effects, antidumping actions are found to have a substantial positive effect on Japanese DFL EU antidumping is roughly twice as likely to lead to tariffjumping DFI as US antidumping, which is ascribed to marked differences in antidumping procedures. Tariff jumping makes antidumping ineffective in combatting anticompetitive behaviour by foreign firms and may result in increased market concentration.     

Labor productivity, wages, nationality, and foreign ownership shares in Thai manufacturing, 1996–2000

This paper compares labor productivity and wages among nationality and ownership groups of foreign multinational corporations (MNCs) and local plants in Thai manufacturing for 1996, 1998, and 2000. Disaggregating foreign MNCs by nationality or foreign ownership share revealed a few significant differences in both labor productivity and wages that were not present in more aggregate specifications. In these cases, there was a weak tendency for MNCs from Europe, Japan, and the United States to have relatively high labor productivity and wages, for wholly-foreign MNCs to have relatively high labor productivity, and for majority- and wholly-foreign MNCs to pay relatively high wages. However, these results suggest that the relationships among labor productivity or wages, on the one hand, and nationality or foreign ownership shares, on the other hand, were generally weak in Thai manufacturing. These results are also consistent with those of previous studies in suggesting that the relationship between labor productivity and foreign ownership in general was also rather weak, though the relationship between wages and foreign ownership was somewhat stronger.