The Reconstruction Finance Corporation,the Gold Standard,and the Banking Panic of 1933

The banking crisis of 1933, which forced a national holiday closing the entire U.S. financial system, is often blamed on either publication of the names of banks borrowing from the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, a speculative run on the gold-backed dollar due to fears that president-elect Roosevelt would devalue the currency, or both. Evidence presented here indicates that neither factor started the final banking crisis of the depression. The Michigan bank holiday ignited the panic, resulting in a series of bank holidays and a run on the dollar. This chain of events toppled the United States financial system.     

美国实施反倾销贸易政策的动因与绩效分析

本文通过对美国反倾销贸易保护活动特征的分析,探讨了美国实施反倾销贸易保护政策的动因及其相关影响因素的强度,并对其经济效应进行了分析。本文研究表明,反倾销贸易保护措施的实施往往受到利益集团的牵制,对一国整体福利来说并不一定有利。因此,在全球竞争中,为提高贸易效率,各国应建立更加开放的贸易体制。     

透视美国民主政治的作用

近两个多世纪以来,美国社会的发展(包括经济、民主政治和文化的发展等)和稳定是众多因素综合作用的结果。但是,民主政治制度在其中发挥了不可或缺的作用。主要表现为,(1)为政府政治统治奠定了合法性基础;(2)清晰的界定了公共利益;(3)促进社会在稳定的基础上进行渐进改革。     

美国退出反导条约:原因及其影响

2001年12月13日晚,美国总统乔治·W·布什在白宫玫瑰园发表声明,正式宣布美国退出1972年与前苏联共同签署的《反弹道导弹条约》.这不仅是美国自从1945年第二次世界大战结束以来第一次退出一个重要的国际协定,而且意味着持续了近30年之久的禁止"战略防御"的国际规制,将从此崩溃.     

美国国债危机的根源及出路

虽然美国债务危机还没有爆发,但目前的财政赤字和国债规模过大、财政收支结构的刚性特征均阻碍了其财政赤字状况的改善、美元的国际货币地位也非可以永久持续,这使美国国债的可持续性问题面临挑战。在解决方案上,短期内美国政府可以通过技术性违约或者债务货币化将政府债务延后或者隐性处理,但是其代价是巨大的。因此美国应当从中长期根本上解决债务问题,中期需要建立严格的财政制度;长期上则需要协调好各个产业的发展,寻找新的经济增长点。     

Poverty, Place or Race: Causes of the Retail Gap in Smaller U.S. Cities

In this study we explore the possibility that any or all of three dimensions of the U.S. inner city, central location, relatively low income, and a relatively high percentage of minority residents, correlate with a relative lack of neighborhood retail services, the so-called retail gap. Our empirical analysis is based on zip code level data for 39 U.S. cities with populations from 50 to 225 thousand people. After specifying an empirical model based on hypotheses drawn from the urban economics, urban studies, and urban development literature, we test access to retail services using both geographical density and per capita retail measures. While several results from this study are worthy of discussion, our primary empirical finding is that neighborhoods with high percentages of African-Americans are systematically under-served by retail, all else equal, while Latino, low income, or otherwise centrally located neighborhoods are not. We then test a selection of product categories for retail density, finding some differing results by product category but verifying our more general conclusions for most products. Finally, we find that grocery stores have significantly smaller scale in African-American communities, a finding that provides partial support for the urban “food desert” hypothesis. These findings suggest that the inner city retail gap may be more of a racial than geographic issue, and that increased emphasis on racial composition is warranted in the retail development policies applied to smaller U.S. cities.     

中美贸易对美国就业影响研究——基于美国制造业面板数据的分析

本文通过建立国际贸易对就业影响的理论模型,利用美国制造业面板数据分析中美贸易对美国就业的影响问题。实证结论表明,美国进口中国制成品对美国就业没有显著影响,也不是美国失业的Granger原因;美国制成品出口对增加美国就业虽有显著影响,但作用不大;影响美国国内就业的主要因素是实际工资、企业发展状况等实际因素。这些结论充分说明,美国的失业问题不是由美国进口中国制成品引起的,美国减少中国制成品进口也解决不了美国的失业问题。     

美元贬值对美国经常账户影响的估值效应分析

本文运用资产组合模型和协整计量方法,论证了美元汇率变化所带来的估值效应对美国经常账户调节的影响。分析结果表明,美元贬值引致的估值效应很小,再加上美元贬值可能使美国短期债务利率上升,这就很容易抵销掉贬值所带来的估值收益。因此,美国巨大的贸易赤字不可能通过美元贬值所带来的估值效应得以纠正。     

Black immigrants in the U.S. labor market: An earnings analysis

This article investigates the existence and sources of earnings differentials between black Americans and black immigrants, and between black and nonblack immigrants. Employing the Public Use Sample of the 1980 census, the gross earnings differentials between black immigrants and black Americans are estimated to be 8.7 percent in favor of Americans (i.e., Americans earn 8.7 percent more than immigrants). About 2 percentage points and 6.7 percentage points of the gross differential are, respectively, due to differences in average characteristics and in returns to the characteristics. The gross differential between black and nonblack immigrants is 22.1 percent in favor of nonblack, of which 13.8 percentage points are due to differences in average characteristics and 8.3 are due to differences in returns to characteristics.     

The U.S. Specie Standard, 1792-1932: Some Monetarist Arithmetic

A new monetary base series is presented for the United States from 1789 to 1932, when the country was on an actual or potential specie standard. The series builds on the Friedman-Schwartz monetary base series and extends it back in time. Monetary balance of payments series are generated, consistent with the monetary base. The time span 1792-1932 is divided into subperiods primarily based on the identification of a monetary authority, also including the greenback period and classic gold standard. Results for the monetary base, exchange market pressure, and economic performance are presented on that basis. The classic gold standard (1879-1913) is undeniably superior to all other periods.     

日美贸易摩擦中的美国“对日修正主义”研究

20世纪80年代中后期产生的日本异质论及美国"对日修正主义"是日美经贸摩擦延伸至体制领域的重要表现。它既是冷战结束前后国际政治格局变化和美国国内政治气候变迁的产物,又具有深刻的学术和舆论背景。美国"对日修正主义"者从资本主义发展模式的差异、日本政治经济体制及其相应政策手段的特殊性、美国对日贸易策略等三个方面阐述了其理论观点,在美国舆论界、学术界和决策层中产生了巨大的影响。     

An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Antidumping Sunset Review Decisions

This paper is the first comprehensive analysis of the U.S. antidumping sunset review process required under WTO commitments. The econometric models study determinants of decisions by three U.S. actors: the petitioning industry, the Department of Commerce (DOC), and the International Trade Commission (ITC). Domestic industries facing potential vigorous competition seem to use sunset reviews to maintain current high domestic profits. U.S. governmental institutions use criteria broadly consistent with their legal obligations. Exports involving Chinese firms may face negative bias in the ITC process. JEL no. F1, F13     

U.S. Export performance in manufacturing industries: An empirical investigation

Zusammenfassung Die Exportentwicklung in der amerikanischen gewerblichen Wirtschaft: Eine empirische Untersuchung. — Die Untersuchung wurde im Sinne des ?Neo-Technologie?- Erkl?rungsansatzes der Handelsstruktur durchgeführt. Sie überprüft empirisch die Determinanten der Exportentwicklung in der amerikanischen gewerblichen Wirtschaft an einem allgemeinen Modell, das die wichtigsten erkl?renden Variablen umfaβt. Dieses Modell wird mit Hilfe der Hauptkomponenten-Methode getestet, wobei sowohl Querschnitts- als auch Zeitreihendaten (1956–1968) für zweistellige und dreistellige SIC-Nummern der Vereinigten Staaten verwendet werden. Zwei allgemeine Folgerungen k?nnen mit relativer Sicherheit gezogen werden. Die ausschlieβliche oder auch haupts?chliche Konzentration der Auβenhandelstheorie auf Kosten-Preis-Faktoren, die in früheren Zeiten vielleicht gerechtfertigt werden konnte; wird in unserer Zeit, nach der Revolutionierung des Verkehrs- und Nachrichtenwesens, des Managements, des Marketing und der industriellen Produktion, eigentlich unhaltbar. Obwohl die Ergebnisse dieser Studie noch keineswegs endgültig sind, zeigen sie doch, daβ viel erreicht werden k?nnte, wenn ein groβer Teil der Aufmerksamkeit Nicht-Preis-Faktoren gewidmet würde. Auβerdem wird es schwierig, einen Ansatz mit einem einzigen Bestimmungsfaktor zu rechtfertigen, weil dieser im günstigsten Fall unvollst?ndig ist, im schlimmsten Fall aber ernsthaft in die Irre führen kann.

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Résumé La performance d’exportation des E. U. dans les industries manufacturières: Une investigation empirique. — L’étude s’approche aux explications ?neotéchnologiques? de la structure du commerce extérieur. Il s’agit d’une exploration empirique des déterminants de la performance d’exportation dans les industries manufacturières par un modèle assez général incorporant les variables explicatives les plus importantes et testé en utilisant l’analyse des composantes principales appliquées aux sections transversales aussi bien qu’aux seriés chronologiques (en couvrant la période de 1956–1968) des données de CUI en deux et trois chiffres. Il y a deux conclusions générales qu’on peut constater avec une certitude relative. Premièrement la concentration exclusive ou même primaire de la théorie du commerce extérieur sur les facteurs de prix et de co?t qu’on pourrait peut-être justifier auparavant, devient tout à fait intenable suivant notre temps avec les révolutions des communications, des techniques de management, des institutions de commercialisation et de l’organisation industrielle. Bien que les résultats de cette étude ne soient pas conclusifs, ils indiquent qu’on peut bien gagner en faisant beaucoup de l’attention aux facteurs non-prix. Deuxièmement il devient difficile à rationaliser une approche de facteur unique qui est incomplète dans le cas le plus favorable et qui peut être égarante au pis aller.

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Resumen El desempe?o de las exportaciones de industrias manufactureras estadounidenses: Una investigatión empírica. — El estudio se realizó en el espíritu de las explicaciones ?neo-tecnológicas? de la estructura del comercio. Es una exploración empírica de las determinantes del desempe?o de las exportaciones estadounidenses en industrias manufactureras por medio de un modelo bastante general, que incorpora las variables explicativas más importantes y que es sometido a test por medio del uso del análisis de componentes principales con datos de comercio exterior de EEUU (para el periodo 1956–1968) a nivel de dos dígitos de la clasificación industrial uniforme (SIC) en forma de corte transversal y series de tiempo. Se pueden sacar dos conclusiones generales con relativa seguridad. Primero, la exclusiva o aún principal concentración de la teoría del comercio sobre factores de costos/precios, que tal vez podría justificarse en un período de tiempo anterior, se torna virtualmente insostenible en nuestros tiempos con revoluciones en comunicaciones, técnicas gerenciales, instituciones de mercadeo y organizatión industrial. A pesar de que los resultados de este estudio no son completamente concluyentes, ellos indican que se puede ganar mucho si se transfiere una buena parte de atención a factores distintos del precio. Segundo, se torna difícil racionalizar un enfoque en términos de un solo factor, que en el mejor de los casos es incompleto y en el peor de los casos puede ser seriamente enga?oso.

     

An empirical analysis of the unit labor cost-product price relation in the U.S. economy

This article tests for cointegration between unit labor costs and the level of product prices in four sectors of the U.S. economy: the aggregate business sector, the nonfinancial corporate sector, durable manufacturing, and nondurable manufacturing. A finding of cointegration for most specifications supports the existence of long-run labor market equilibrium for producers and suggests estimation of error-correction models to examine the dynamic relationships. In every sector except nondurable manufacturing, error-correction model estimates indicate there is a mutual feedback relationship between unit labor costs and prices. Controlling for deviations from full employment, oil price shocks, and the Nixon wage and price controls, the results also provide evidence of significant nominal wage indexation in U.S. labor markets. Throughout the economy there appears to exist both effective neoclassical wage and price adjustment mechanisms to maintain labor market equilibrium and short-run rigidities which may contribute to deviations from full employment outcomes.     

从美国利用“201”条款限制钢铁进口看WTO保障措施的缺陷

美国政府于2002年3月开始利用“201”条款对钢铁产品出口实施保障措施。为什么一项无论形式上还是本质上都明显属于贸易保护主义的举措，却有着一件合法的外衣？本文就此展开对美国国内保障措施的介绍和分析，并进一步探讨WTO现行的保障措施规定存在的缺陷。