The Role of TTIP on the Environment

The current study empirically investigates and shows that, on average, the possible implementation of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) would generally help in the fight against global warming. In particular, the study finds that a 1% increase in the bilateral trade between the United States and the typical EU member would reduce annual per capita emissions of CO₂ and GHGs in the typical TTIP member by about 2.7% and 2.4%, respectively. However, results also show that TTIP may increase annual per capita emissions of GHGs in the United States by about 2.5% per year. These results stand because the factor endowment hypothesis and the pollution haven hypothesis based on population density variations appear to dominate the pollution haven hypothesis based on national income differences.     

农村养老保险、养老金待遇与最优政策组合

采用OLG模型考察了农村养老保险个人缴费率、集体补助率、地方政府补贴率、基础养老金率和人口增长率对资本积累、人均消费和养老金的影响,并寻求政策变量最优组合。研究发现,提高个人缴费率会增加养老金;提高集体补助率、地方政府补贴率以及人口增长率下降都会增加资本劳动比、人均消费和养老金;提高基础养老金率会降低资本劳动比和人均消费而增加养老金。同时,最优的地方政府和集体补贴率随最优基础养老金率同方向变动。若最优基础养老金率不变,则人口增长率小幅变动会引起最优地方政府和集体补贴率大幅反向变动。根据影响方向和力度,应提高个人缴费率和集体补助率,调整财政支出结构以维持现有基础养老金率、相应提高地方政府补贴率,控制人口增长率。     

Economic growth and income inequality in the Asia-Pacific region: A comparative study of China,Japan, South Korea,and the United States

This paper builds an inequality-growth-redistribution nexus, and applies the Engle–Granger two-step ECM approach to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between inequality and growth for four economies: China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Our estimation results support the S-shaped curve hypothesis relating GDP per capita to inequality with different starting points for the four economies. For the reverse relationship, we find a positive causal relationship for China, Japan, and the United States, indicating that increased income inequality spurred economic growth. In addition, we find mixed results on the effect of trade openness on inequality and growth. Trade openness reduced inequality in the United States and Japan, worsened it in China and had no significant effect in South Korea. In the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, exports provided an impetus to economic growth for Japan. As for redistribution, although fiscal redistributive measures reduced inequality in Japan, they played no major role in the other three countries. With regard to the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, all countries except for China show a negative effect of fiscal redistribution on GDP per capita.     

Labor productivity in the United States and the United Kingdom during the nineteenth century

A number of writers have recently questioned whether labor productivity or per capita incomes were ever higher in the United Kingdom than in the United States. This paper focuses on aggregate and sectoral labor productivity in the two countries during the nineteenth century. We build on earlier work by Broadberry to push comparative productivity estimates back to 1840 based on a time series projection from a 1910 benchmark and checked against a benchmark estimate for 1850. The results indicate that labor productivity in agriculture was broadly equal in the two countries, and that the United States had a substantial labor productivity lead in industry as early as 1840, while the United Kingdom was ahead in services. Hence aggregate labor productivity and per capita incomes were higher in the United Kingdom in the mid-nineteenth century, particularly since the United States had a larger share of the labor force in low value-added agriculture and a smaller share of the population in the labor force.     

基于扩展的STIRPAT模型的新疆碳排放量的影响因素研究

基于扩展的STIRPAT模型,采用新疆1990~2010年统计数据,对新疆碳排放量的主要影响因素进行了实证研究。研究表明,当新疆人均GDP、能源强度、单位能耗碳排放量、人口规模每提高1%时,碳排放总量增长率将分别增长1.938%、1.233%、0.346%、0.329%。当新疆人均GDP、能源强度、单位能耗碳排放量每提高1%时,人均碳排放量增长率将分别增长2.742%、1.713%、0.477%。     

The effects of the United States granting MFN status to Vietnam

Conclusions In this paper, the direct impacts on Vietnam’s trading opportunities of the U.S. granting MFN treatment were first estimated by building up from the resulting level of tariffs applied to individual traded goods. Then, the economic impacts on Vietnam were inferred, using simulations with the Global Trade Analysis model. The results revealed that the increased market access to the United States brings significant welfare gains to Vietnam. The direct terms of trade improvement resulting from increased market access accounts for 60 percent of the total gain, with the remaining 40 percent derived from second-best induced gains in efficiency. Exports to the United States more than doubled, from $338 million to $768 million.¹³ The estimated increase in exports of clothing is especially significant, with these exports increasing almost fifteenfold, while exports of agricultural commodities decreased slightly. Total welfare as measured by Equivalent Variation increased by $ 118 million or 0.9 percent increase in real expenditure per capita. By granting MFN status to Vietnam, the United States also gains from improved resource allocation, although some of the gains are offset by deterioration in its terms of trade. The gains for the United States were estimated to be around $56 million per year.     

Changes in Household Welfare,Poverty and Inequality During the Crisis

This study provides evidence about changes in the distribution of living standards among Indonesian households during the economic crisis. It uses consumption expenditure data from a panel of households that were surveyed in May 1997, just before the onset of the crisis, and then again in August 1998, about a year after the crisis began. A household-specific deflator is used to make nominal consumption expenditures comparable across this period. The results suggest that there was a considerable drop in household welfare during the economic crisis. Average per capita expenditures fell significantly, and at the same time inequality increased. The poverty rate also appears to have doubled from the pre-crisis level. However, transitions into and out of poverty before and after the crisis reveal remarkable fluidity.     

Barriers to labor mobility and international trade: The case of China

This paper quantitatively evaluates the potential impacts of removing China's Hukou system on the world economy. By denying migrant workers the right to health benefits and housing, China's Household Registration (Hukou) system presents a significant distortion to the Chinese labor market that discourages the reallocation of its labor from agriculture to non-agriculture. I find that the elimination of Hukou could increase China's real income per capita by about 4.7%. Moreover, although for most countries the impact of removing Hukou is modest (less than 1% changes in real income per capita), substantial changes in real income could take place for China's small neighboring economies. For example, the decreases in real GDP per capita are 2.7%, 3.2%, and 4.1% for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam, while Thailand stands to enjoy a 3.8% increase in its income.     

The Development of Inequality and Poverty in Indonesia, 1932–2008

We estimate inequality in Indonesia between 1932 and 2008. Inequality increased at the start of this period but declined sharply from the 1960s onwards. The increase was due to a shift from domestic to export agriculture over the period up to the Great Depression. During the 1930s, as the price of export crops declined, the income of rich farmers suffered a blow. Yet this was counterbalanced by an increasing gap between expenditures in the urban and rural sectors, causing an overall rise in inequality. As for the second half of the century, we find that the employment shift towards manufacturing and services—combined with an increase in labour productivity in agriculture—accounts for inequality’s decline, which was halted in the 1990s. These inequality trends affected poverty as well, but prior to the 1940s the negative impact of the rise in inequality was offset by an increase in per capita GDP. Between 1950 and 1980 a decline in inequality, combined with increased per capita GDP, rapidly raised a large portion of the population above the poverty line.     

REGIONAL INCOME INEQUALITY IN INDONESIA AND THE INITIAL IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

This paper estimates regional income inequality from 1993 to 1998, using a Theil index based upon district-level GDP and population data. Between 1993 and 1997, when Indonesia's annual average growth rate exceeded 7%, regional income inequality rose significantly. A two-stage nested inequality decomposition analysis indicates this was due mainly to an increase in within-province inequality, especially in Riau, Jakarta and West and East Java. In 1997, the within-province component represented about 50% of regional income inequality. The crisis caused per capita GDP growth to revert to its 1995 level, but the impact was spread unevenly across provinces and districts. In 1998 regional income inequality declined to its 1993-94 level. In contrast to 1993-97, three-quarters of the 1998 decline was due to a change in between-province inequality, with the Java-Bali region playing a prominent role. The crisis appears particularly to have afflicted urban Java and urban Sumatra.     

发达国家人均GDP5000美元后经济发展的特征、做法与启示

随着改革开放的不断深入,我国经济发展进入新的阶段,北京、上海、浙江等一些经济发达省市人均GDP率先跨过5000美元重要关口,今后一个时期还会有更多的省市跨越这一关口,因此研究人均GDP5000美元后发达国家经济发展经验对我国经济进一步发展意义重大。基于这种考虑,本文笔者收集美、日、英等经济发达国家有关经济数据,总结他们在人均GDP5000美元后的经济发展特征及其主要做法,并思考提出了我国人均GDP5000美元后经济发展的几点启示。     

Additional Empirical Evidence on Real Convergence: A Fractionally Integrated Approach

We examine the real convergence hypothesis for 14 OECD countries looking at the fractional order of integration of the differences of real GDP per capita in these countries with respect to the United States. Using parametric procedures, the results vary depending on how we specify the I(0) disturbances. If they are white noise, convergence is achieved for Canada and Australia, and with autocorrelated disturbances, this hypothesis is satisfied for France and the Netherlands. However, allowing for a break at World War II, evidence of convergence is obtained for all countries. JEL no. C32, O41     

Energy demand and population changes

During the post World War 2 years energy consumption has grown 136% while population grew about 51%; per capita consumption of energy expanded, therefore, about 60%. For a given population size, demographic changes mean an increase in energy needs; for instance the larger the group of retirement age people, the smaller their energy needs than are those for a younger group. Estimates indicate that by the year 2000 the energy impact will be toward higher per capita consumption with 60% of the population in the 19-61 age group of workers. Rising female labor force participation will increase the working group even more; it has also been found that income and energy grow at a proportional rate. The authors predict that gasoline consumption within the US will continue to rise with availability considering the larger number of female drivers and higher per capita incomes. The flow of illegal aliens (750,000/year) will have a major impact on income and will use greater amounts of energy than can be expected. A demographic change which will lower energy demands will be the slowdown of the rate of household formation caused by the falling number of young adults. The response of energy demand to price changes is small and slow but incomes play a larger role as does the number of personal automobiles and social changes affecting household formation. Households, commercial space, transportation, and industry are part of every demand analysis and population projections play a major role in determining these factors.     

International price discrimination: The pharmaceutical industry

It is generally asserted that price discrimination is a common feature of the international pharmaceutical market, resulting in unnecessarily high medical costs to developing countries, since it is pharmaceuticals that are the largest component of their health care expenditures. However, little comprehensive empirical research has been carried out to test this hypothesis. This article compares the prices of identical packages of pharmaceutical products for 32 countries for the year 1975 and examines which factors contribute to thehuge price differences. A strong positive relationship between price level and per capita GDP is found, a 10% increase in per capita income being associated with on average 8% higher drug prices. The implementation of direct price control measures by the government results on average in a 20% price reduction, while government policies such as bulk purchasing through a centralized government agency, promotion of the use of generics and, to a lesser, extent excluding patent protection seem to be sucessful in lowering the general price level of pharmaceuticals. These results suggest that the pharmaceutical industry charges what the market “will bear”.     

Science and technology indicators,country size and economic development: An international comparison

Conceptual and data problems make the selection of science and technology indicators difficult. It has also proven hard to link measures of scientific and technological activity with economic development. In this paper, statistically significant results are obtained in regressing two “input” indicators: stock of scientists and engineers, and expenditures in research and experimental development, with population size and income per capita. The models adjusted include non-linearities and are structurally different country groupings. Thus the practice of utilizing average coefficients, and of applying their values to both industrialized and developing countries, does not seem justified. The econometrically established pattern tends to corroborate prior knowledge about highly qualified human resource availability and expenditures in R & D, in “outlier” countries performing both above and below the “norm”.     

Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns

We apply a modified "gravity model" incorporating measures of factor endowments to analyze Japanese and U.S. bilateral trade flows and direct foreign investment positions with a sample of around 100 countries for the period 1985–1990. Country features that our analysis takes into account are population, income, the land–labor ratio, the average level of education, and region. We find that features of a country associated with more trade with either Japan or the United States also tend to be associated with more direct foreign investment (DFI) from Japan or the United States. U.S. economic relations with Japan and Western Europe provide an important exception. Despite U.S. concern about its trade deficit with Japan, we find Japan to be much more open to the United States, not only as a source of imports, but also as a destination for U.S. exports than most countries in Western Europe. Taking other factors into account, however, Western Europe is more open to U.S. direct foreign investment. We also find that a country′s level of education tends to increase significantly U.S. interaction of all types with that country, even after correcting for per capita income. Education does not play a significant role in Japanese trade patterns. As factor endowment theory would predict, the United States tends to trade more with densely populated countries, while Japan tends to import more from sparsely populated countries. Even after taking into account population, income, factor endowments, and region, there is a substantial degree of "bilateralism" in Japanese and U.S. economic relationships in that the residual correlation among exports, imports, and outward direct foreign investment is much larger than would be the case if these magnitudes were independent across countries. J. Japan. Int. Econ. December 1994, 8(4), pp. 478–510. Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215; and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138.