货币政策不确定性与企业现金持有——现金股利视角的新解释

研究利用中国A股上市公司样本,系统探讨了货币政策不确定性对企业现金持有策略的影响.研究发现:随着货币政策不确定性的提高,企业现金持有水平降低.深入研究发现货币政策不确定性对企业现金持有策略的影响主要通过现金股利渠道发挥作用,即在货币政策不确定性较高时期,企业持有的现金更多用于支持现金股利分配,籍此向市场传递积极信号.进一步研究排除了投资机会与代理成本等潜在干扰因素的影响,并且结合产权性质差异的分析发现货币政策不确定性对于非国有企业现金持有策略的影响更为明显.研究一方面基于不确定性视角为货币政策如何影响企业现金管理策略提出了新解释——现金股利渠道,有助于更好地理解我国上市公司的现金持有策略;另一方面也说明货币政策频繁调整所导致的货币政策不确定性很可能是加剧实体经济经营风险的宏观诱因.     

Real Versus Tariff Liberalization: A Welfare Comparison Under Monopolistic Competition

A distinction between real trade costs (e.g., administration, border formalities, transport costs) and tariff costs is introduced into a standard monopolistic competition trade model. Driven by the number of firms, welfare under real trade barriers turns out to be lower than under an equivalent tariff barrier. Based on this finding, the paper shows that integration or rather liberalization measures (generating a certain increase in world trade) that reduce real trade barriers generate a larger welfare gain than integration consisting of a reduction in tariffs.     

Welfare Economics,Political Economy and Policy Reform in Ghana*

Abstract: Economic policy reform touches upon two aspects of the subject of economics - welfare economics and political economy. The former develops the logic of how the gains of the gainers and the losses of the losers should be weighed against each other, in the context of particular ethical frameworks; the latter analyses how the gains of the gainers and the losses of the losers will be weighed against each other, in the context of the institutions of a particular socio-political system. This essay has considered the sub-disciplines of Welfare Economics and Political Economy as two frameworks for evaluating policy reform and applied them to the case of Ghana. It is argued that the agenda for policy makers in Ghana is to work towards organizing and mobilizing the gainers from reforms which advance social welfare, so that resistance to such reforms from the losers can be overcome. The first decade of reform in Ghana presents the results of such alignment. The second decade of reform now awaits. Résumé: La réforme structurelle de l'économie participe de deux aspects de la doctrine économique: l'économie de bien-être et l'économie politique. La première situe dans un cadre logique les modalités par lesquelles les pertes des perdants et les gains des gagnants devraient être mis en balance, dans le contexte d'un système éthique particulier; la seconde analyse les modalités par lesquelles les gains des gagnants et les pertes des perdants seront mis en balance, dans le contexte des institutions d'un système socio-politique donné. Le présent essai utilise les deux sous-disciplines -économie de bien-être et économie politique-comme cadres d'analyse pour l'évaluation des réformes structurelles, en les appliquant au cas du Ghana. L'auteur soutient que pour les décideurs du Ghana, le mot d'ordre consiste à organiser et mobiliser les bénéficiaires des réformes concourant à la promotion du bien-être social, afin de pouvoir vaincre la résistance que les perdants opposent à ces réformes. La première décennie des réformes au Ghana fait apparaître les résultats de cet alignement. La deuxième décennie est ouverte.     

Labour Market Policy and Welfare Reform: Meeting Distribution and Efficiency Objectives

Alongside the growth in overall employment and the steady rise in average real incomes over the 1990s, many developed countries experienced a concentration of low labour market attachment and low pay among certain groups in society. In response, the focus of welfare policy shifted towards targeted making work pay programs. This paper considers the validity of the arguments underlying this shift in welfare policy. It examines two broad classes of policies: active labour market programs and earned income tax credits.     

Taxes,the Speed of Convergence,and Implications for Welfare Effects of Fiscal Policy

Previous studies suggest that income taxes do not affect the convergence speed in neoclassical and new growth models. Those studies use very simple tax structures. This paper shows that a relation between taxes and convergence speed emerges if tax benefits are included in standard macroeconomic models. A welfare example suggests that the economic impact could be large even if the absolute size of the effect of taxes on convergence speed is small.     

自由现金流量与企业股利政策的关系

本文探讨了企业股利政策与自由现金流量之间的关系,认为适当的股利政策可以提高企业价值,以达到股东财富最大化的目标.同时本文分析了企业的发展会经历创业期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期,在每一发展阶段企业获取的自由现金流量不同,因此应制订不同的股利政策.     

资本国际流动背景下的货币政策和社会福利分析

文章在新凯恩斯模型中引入内生化资本,以讨论资本国际流动背景下,一个典型的开放经济体应如何实施货币政策,从而最优化社会福利。结果显示,资本的国际流动能影响一国资本结构,进而对经济冲击产生放大效应。在此条件下,相对于稳定汇率的货币政策,独立的货币政策将带来更小的福利损失。文章建议我国在制定货币政策时考虑本国资本实际回报率,以起到降低国外经济冲击向国内传导,并且调整国内资本构成的作用,从而控制风险和降低经济整体波动。     

我国教师资格政策研究：一种政策内容分析的视角

2000年9月23日，我国开始全面实施教师资格证书制度工作。教师资格政策的全面实施，必将对教师队伍建设和教育事业的发展产生重要的影响。教育资格在应具备的条件、分类、年限都存在一定的问题。因此，应提高教师资格认定的“门槛”，细化教师资格分类等方面完善我国教师资格政策。     

Self-Selection and Post-Entry Effects of Exports: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Firms

Our paper adds empirical evidence on the causal effects of exporting on firms’ performances. Using a rich database on Italian manufacturing firms, we test the self-selection and the post-entry effects hypotheses with respect to various firms’ characteristics. Our analysis supports the idea that the superior performance of the exporters is due not only to a market selection mechanism, but also to efficiency improvements following the export activity. We find heterogeneous post-entry effects with respect to characteristics as geographical location, size and sector. To test the post-entry hypothesis we implement the propensity score matching and differences-in-differences techniques. JEL no.  D24, F14, O31     

Ethics,Welfare, and Markets: An Economic Analysis

The present article examines society's welfare when goods with identical physical attributes can be produced using two alternative technologies, one of them less ethically desirable but less expensive for at least some producers. For the scenario where identification costs must be borne by producers and consumers of the high‐quality good, the outcome under unregulated markets is identical to the optimal solution of a central planner constrained to neither ban the undesirable technology nor segregate the low‐quality good. However, under certain circumstances the unregulated market equilibrium may be improved upon by government intervention that shifts the burden of identification costs to the producers of the low‐quality good, or which bans the production of the low‐quality good. The optimal intervention needs to be determined case‐by‐case and depends on consumer preferences, relative production costs, and relative costs of identification and fraud prevention.     

Migration,FDI, and Welfare

We investigate migration and foreign direct investment (FDI) for a small trading economy. Historically, immigration in small countries has been accompanied by FDI inflows (complementary capital movements). Based on the skill composition of migrants, empirical evidence finds that skilled immigration is accompanied by FDI inflows but unskilled immigration is accompanied by FDI outflows (substitutable capital movements). We prove that the Heckscher-Ohlin model cannot reconcile these apparently contradictory observations. We introduce a theoretical model in which capital and unskilled labor are sector specific, and demonstrate that this model can reconcile the historical and empirical observations on migration and FDI.     

考虑放弃现金折扣成本和短期投资收益的订货策略

文章针对供应商为及时收回货款,提供给零售商现金折扣的情况,基于传统EOQ模型,引入财务管理上有关＂放弃现金折扣成本＂和贷款利率、短期投资收益率之间的判断依据,研究了不同情况下,零售商可能的订货策略,为零售商确定订货时间提供理论依据。     

瑞典福利政策和老年社会保障制度的发展及其启示

瑞典的福利政策和老年社会保障制度,在历史上促进了经济发展和人民生活水平的提高。但在石油危机发生后,经济增长速度减慢,养老保障开支增多。最终,瑞典通过改革和完善社会福利政策及老年社会保障制度,走出困境,并积累了大量改革经验。这对于我国推行惠民政策,建立和完善社会保障体系具有诸多启示。