Do Real Exchange Rates Follow a Nonlinear Mean Reverting Process in Developing Countries?

In an effort to fight relatively high inflation, many developing countries try to manage their nominal exchange rates through official intervention. In addition, developing countries tend to have high transportation costs, tariffs, and nontariff barriers. These factors are among the sources of generating nonlinearity in real exchange rates and hence some nonlinear adjustment toward purchasing power parity (PPP) in developing countries. In this paper, we employ monthly real effective exchange rate (REER) data of 88 developing countries and test the null of nonstationarity versus an alternative of linear stationarity by the means of a conventional unit root test and compare the results with those obtained from a new test in which the null is the same but the alternative hypothesis is nonlinear stationarity. The latter test supports the PPP theory in more developing countries compared with the former test, suggesting that nonlinear adjustment toward PPP in developing countries is an important phenomenon. Reported country characterizations indicate that reversion in REER occurs more often for high-inflation countries and for countries with high flexibility in their exchange rates.     

Price Stability and the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates

We revisit Friedman’s case for flexible exchange rates in a small open economy with several distortions and rigidities and a variety of domestic and external shocks. We find that, for external shocks, the flexible exchange rate regime outperforms the fixed regime independent of the source of domestic nominal rigidities provided that the monetary authorities pursue a policy of strict inflation targeting. For domestic supply shocks, a joint policy of a flexible exchange rate and strict inflation targeting fares well when the main source of nominal rigidities is in the domestic goods markets, but not if rigidities arise in the labor markets.     

Mean Reversion of Real Exchange Rates in High-Inflation Countries

We test for mean reversion in real exchange rates using data from five countries, four of which have experienced episodes of high inflation. Using monthly data for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Israel, we find that a stochastic unit root model is typically appropriate (Brazil is the exception). Kalman filter estimates of the stochastic unit roots show sharp deviations from unity associated with high inflation episodes. This suggests that stochastic unit root models are a more appropriate way to model mean reversion in real exchange rates for high inflation countries than models with fixed rates of mean reversion.     

双边实际汇率、出口规模与出口质量

本文采用2005~2011年中国对147个国家和地区的6位数海关编码出口数据,实证研究了人民币与进口国货币之间的双边实际汇率变化对中国出口的影响。研究表明,不同产品出口的实际汇率弹性与产品质量有关,高技术含量产品出口的汇率弹性小于低技术含量产品。人民币相对于进口国货币的实际升值一方面会对出口规模产生显著的负面影响,另一方面却能优化出口结构,提升中国出口产品的整体质量。     

Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries

In an extended Balassa–Samuelson model, long-run real exchange rates are determined by relative productivity and terms of trade. We present evidence of systematic long-run relationships between these fundamental variables and real exchange rates in a data set covering 15 OECD countries from 1960 to 1996. High relative productivity is associated with real exchange rate appreciations in most cases. There is less support for the hypothesis that the terms of trade affect equilibrium real exchange rates.     

Real Exchange Rates, Valuation Effects and Growth in Emerging Markets

We compare the relationship between net capital inflows, real exchange rate movements and growth for twenty emerging markets and twelve developed countries over the period 1985–2004. In developed countries low real exchange rates are associated with faster growth, but in emerging markets depreciations depress growth, even outside crisis periods, and are closely correlated with declines or reversals in net capital inflows. To investigate valuation effects of currency movements, we construct debt-weighted real exchange rate indices for emerging markets, which are more closely correlated with growth than trade-weighted indices.     

The Complex Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates with Countercyclical Balance of Trade

We extend Dornbusch's (1973) model to determine whether the countercyclical trade balance which is often observed in real business cycle studies can be rationalized and show that the sum of export and import elasticities being less than one is responsible for the complex fluctuation of exchange rates within this exogenous-shock-free framework.     

汇率、股票市场及房地产价格波动的关联性研究

文章利用时变相关的多元波动率模型,对美元汇率、上证指数以及地产指数的逐日数据建立三元时变相关的广义自回归条件方差（TV—GARCH）模型,从而得出三者的波动性特征以及其显著的时变相关系数,可知地产价格的收益率波动最大。汇率与地产指数、上证指数的相关关系复杂,可存在正相关或负相关关系,而股票市场与房地产市场间存在正向相关关系,且相关系数的大小随时间变化。     

人民币实际汇率水平与波动对进出口贸易的影响——基于1980～2004年的实证研究

本文首先用AR—GARCH模型测算了人民币实际汇率的波动率,之后采用Engle-Granger两步法,研究了其波动对我国进出口贸易的影响。我们发现,从长期看,随着汇率波动率的增加,我国的出口量会减少,而进口量则会增加,而短期中汇率波动率的增加对贸易影响不大。因此在人民币汇率改革后,只有有效控制汇率风险,才能保持贸易收支的相对稳定。     

Searching Stationarity in the Real Exchange Rates: Application of the SUR Estimator

In the foreign exchange market, all national currencies are priced in terms of a common numeraire (usually the U.S. dollar); hence, cross-currency correlation is likely to be important in the empirical investigation of stationarity. Recently, the SUR estimator is employed to account for the effects of cross-currency correlation on the long-run purchasing power parity. Under the SUR framework, this paper examines the joint unit-root null and the ADF-based panel unit root. Data of 30 currencies, spans from 1980 to 1999, are used for empirical analysis and the results are supportive.     

人民币汇率升值与资产价格泡沫的传导机制和实证研究

文章旨在研究具有资本流动和较低金融市场组织程度的开放经济体中,如果产生某些外部冲击而使得汇率升值,便会产生资产价格泡沫。在传导机制的理论模型推导中,以凯恩斯宏观经济模型为基础,通过模型推导得出实际汇率升值使得均衡收益率上升,股票资产需求迅速增加,进而导致股票价格的快速上涨,形成泡沫。然后通过对人民币汇率升值和上证A股股指变化进行实证研究,并考虑金融危机的影响因素,结果支持了文章的理论分析。     

Nonstationarity of Real Exchange Rates in the G7 Countries: Are They Cointegrated with Real Variables?

Using monthly data for the G7 countries in the post-Bretton Woods floating rate period, this paper demonstrates that almost all bilateral real exchange rates have unit roots and, hence, are nonstationary. Consequently, it rejects simple PPP as a long-run relationship. The paper also shows that many of these real exchange rates are cointegrated with other real economic variables such as relative labor productivity, terms-of-trade ratios, real trade balance ratios, and long-term real interest rate differentials. In particular, relative labor productivity is statistically significant with the correct sign for more than half of the country pairs for which cointegration is confirmed. This finding lends support to the Balassa–Samuelson productivity-bias hypothesis. These results imply that nonstationarity of real exchange rates and the consequent rejection of simple PPP can be consistent with the notion that real exchange rates revert to an equilibrium in the long run without deviating arbitrarily far from this equilibrium position.J. Japan. Int. Econ.,December 1997, pp. 523–547. Institute of Social Science, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113, Japan, and Faculty of Business and Commerce, Meiji University, 1-1 Kanda, Surugadai, Chiyada-ku, Tokyo 101, Japan.     

Real Exchange Rates,the Trade Balance and Net Foreign Assets: Long-Run Relationships and Measures of Misalignment

In this paper we estimate equilibrium exchange rates for 23 OECD countries and four less mature economies in a panel data setting. Our empirical analysis demonstrates significant links between the trade balance and net foreign assets, and between real exchange rates and the trade balance, rather than between real exchange rates and net foreign asset, as predicted by the model of Lane and Milessi-Ferretti (2002). Our study indicates that, in terms of the association between real exchange rates and trade balance, there is heterogeneity between the emerging market economies and the OECD countries. Finally, we construct various measures of exchange rate misalignment for all the exchange rates included in our panels.     

汇率冲击和行业就业调整

根据Campa和Goldberg的贸易结构理论,我们对国内15个行业就业和汇率间的关系进行了实证研究。结果发现大多数行业在汇率冲击后的反应和理论一致,即人民币升值会抑制其就业增长,而贬值有利于其就业扩张,尤其是对高开放度和劳动密集型行业影响显著。但由于其他行业就业汇率弹性并不显著,因此降低了整体就业汇率弹性的显著性。此外,由于我国各行业开放度高于美国,因此就业汇率弹性也较大。     

A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation

Several alternative measures of “effective” exchange rates are discussed in the context of their theoretical underpinnings and construction. Focusing on contemporary indices and recently-developed econometric methods, the empirical characteristics of these differing series are examined for the U.S., the euro area, and several East Asian countries. The issues that confront the applied economist or policymaker in using the measures of real effective exchange rates available are illustrated in several case studies from current interest: (i) evaluating exchange rate misalignment; (ii) testing the Balassa-Samuelson effect; (iii) estimating the price responsiveness of trade flows; and (iv) assessing the potential impact of competitive devaluations. JEL Classification Numbers: F31, F41