Asymmetric Information and Demand for Money in an Overlapping Generations Economy

This paper studies a pure exchange overlapping generations economy in which agents have asymmetric information pertaining to their income realizations. Such an information asymmetry introduces a role for fiat money that would otherwise be absent. This information asymmetry can also drastically alter the equilibrium properties of the analogous model with perfect information. In general, the more severe the information asymmetry, the greater the demand for fiat money.     

中国资本市场信息供求系统解析

信息是资本市场的“轴心”和“生命”，资本市场是信息最重要、信息最集中、信息最不对称、信息时效性最强、信息价值体现最充分的市场，可以说，现代资本市场也是一种“信息市场”。要实现资本市场的有效运行，就必须研究信息的供求机制和运行系统。本文分别探讨了资本市场信息的供给、需求和流通问题，并在此基础上形成了资本市场信息运行系统的轮廓。     

非对称信息下的卡尔多-希克斯改进

当一项政策的实施给某个集团带来的收益大于其为另一些集团带来的损失时,即可以实现卡尔多-希克斯意义上的社会福利改进.政府可以通过适当的转移支付手段向获益者征税来补偿受损人.但如果政府无法观测政策实施给利益受损人带来的损失,政策的实施难度会加大.本文将最优政策的选择问题归结为最优机制设计问题,证明了非对称信息所引起的信息成本会成为政策实施的阻碍,政策执行的结果只能是"次优"的.     

Multinational Learning under Asymmetric Information

The aim of this paper is to analyze the competition between a multinational and the incumbent firm in a foreign market under asymmetric information about demand and unobservable outputs. It is shown that the incumbent firm increases its production in the first period to signal to the multinational that the demand is low. The multinational reduces its output in the foreign market in order to signal-jam. In addition, the multinational increases its production in the other market. However, total production of the multinational is lower. Implications for research and development expenditure by the multinational are examined.     

基于信息不确定性的分割市场盈余公告后漂移研究

文章采用事件研究和面板数据研究了中国A股、H股分割市场上盈余信息不确定性对盈余公告后漂移的影响。研究表明,境内外财务报告的主要数据不存在显著差异,也就是说,中国会计准则与国际会计准则执行的结果是基本一致的;而A股、H股市场的非财务因素差距较大。研究发现,在分割市场的盈余公告后漂移中,信息不确定性起到了十分重要的作用,无论两个市场上参与人的类型如何,信息不确定性都能加剧投资者认知偏差并有效地影响PEAD。     

Antidumping as Strategic Trade Policy under Asymmetric Information

Trade liberalization under GATT/World Trade Organization (WTO) has been partly offset by an increase in antidumping protection, possibly due to the inclusion of sales below cost in the definition of dumping. This article investigates the domestic government's antidumping duty choice in an asymmetric information framework, in which the foreign firm's cost is observed by the domestic firm, but not by the government. We show that by designing a tariff schedule contingent on firms' cost reports and accompanied by a threat to collect additional information for report verification, the domestic government may not only be able to extract the true cost information, but also succeed in implementing the full‐information, governmental welfare‐maximizing duty. The antidumping framework within GATT/WTO may thus not only offer the means to pursue strategic trade policy disguised as fair trade policy, but it also helps overcome informational problems with regard to correctly determining the optimal strategic trade policy.     

不对称成本信息、反倾销威胁与最优出口贸易政策

本文运用两时期信号博弈模型,分析了不对称成本信息对出口贸易政策的影响。研究发现,最优出口贸易政策是出口补贴还是出口税,取决于模型中的成本、政治压力和事先信念参数。在大部分情况下,最优出口补贴水平相对较低。这意味着,反倾销和出口补贴是相互联系的,反倾销威胁会导致出口补贴的出现。为了传递真实成本信息,争取有利的出口贸易政策,低成本企业将产量提高到利润最大化水平以上。这说明最优出口贸易政策的确能起到揭示真实成本信息,从而限制高成本企业倾销行为的作用。     

不对称信息、反倾销威胁与最优出口贸易政策

运用两时期信号博弈模型,分析了不对称信息对面临反倾销情况下最优出口贸易政策的影响.研究发现,政治压力和成本结构会导致两个分离均衡.政治压力较低时,分离均衡中的最优出口贸易政策是出口税;政治压力较大时,分离均衡中的最优出口贸易政策是实行出口补贴,还是实行出口税,则取决于模型中的成本、政治压力和事先信念三个参数.为了传递真实成本信息,争取有利的出口贸易政策,在两个分离均衡中,高(低)成本企业会将产量减少(增加)到利润最大化水平以下(上).这说明,最优出口贸易政策确能揭示真实成本信息,限制高成本企业的倾销行为.     

Flight to Quality in International Markets: Investors’ Demand for Financial Reporting Quality during Political Uncertainty Events

We examine whether international equity mutual fund managers shift their portfolios toward stocks with higher financial reporting quality (FRQ) during periods of high political uncertainty. Our study is motivated by two primary factors. First, prior research shows evidence of fund managers’ “flight to quality” (e.g., to less risky securities) during periods of uncertainty. Second, recent theoretical research concludes that stocks with higher FRQ are assessed as less sensitive to systematic risk (such as political uncertainty). We employ national elections as exogenous increases in systematic risk in the local markets and accordingly use an international sample of mutual funds that focus on local markets. We find that mutual fund managers shift their equity holdings to stocks with higher FRQ during election periods when political uncertainty is higher. Such a flight‐to‐quality effect is less pronounced for elections with larger expected electoral margins in the pre‐election period (i.e., when the incumbent is more likely to win the election) and for countries with higher transactions costs. In contrast, the effect is more pronounced when governments have greater involvement in the local economy. Our inferences are robust to alternative proxies for political uncertainty and FRQ and to numerous other sensitivity analyses.     

An Examination of Entry and Competitive Performance in Rural Banking Markets

This article explores the change in the level of competition in rural banking markets after the deregulation that occurred following passage of the Riegle‐Neal Act of 1994. Using an empirical model that utilizes both the number of banks and the value of deposits in a cross‐section of 278 rural markets, we decompose the impact of the entry of new banks into resulting changes in per capita demand and the costs/profits of local banks in 1994 and 2004. The results support the view that local banking markets have become more competitive since the mid‐1990s.     

Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy in an Asymmetric Monetary Union

We examine monetary and fiscal interactions in a monetary union model with uncertainty due to imperfect central bank transparency. It is first shown that monetary uncertainty discourages excessive taxation and may thus reduce average inflation and output distortions. However, as countries enter the monetary union, this tax-restraining effect of uncertainty is mitigated. The monetary union may hence lead to higher fiscal distortions in some member countries, depending on governments’ spending targets and on the change in the degree of uncertainty implied by common monetary policy.     

信息不对称条件下采购质量控制契约设计

在采购过程中,采购商与供应商存在着严重的信息不对称,这将增加采购成本。采购商为了鼓励供应商参与投标,规定的采购品质量标准不是特别高,中标供应商都能达到。对中标供应商而言,采购品质量还有提高的空间,但是提高质量需要花费成本,并且还具有一定的风险。针对此种情形,文章应用委托代理理论模型进行分析,研究得出采购商应与中标供应商签订质量控制契约,激励供应商努力提高采购品的质量。     

非对称信息下闭环供应链收益共享协调契约设计

以博弈论为基本研究方法,研究了闭环供应链系统协调契约的设计问题。结果表明：在制造商生产成本信息对称情况下,简单的收益共享协调契约可以实现供应链的协调。在信息非对称情况下,如果制造商的真实生产成本和其他外生参数满足一定条件时,收益共享协调契约同样可以实现供应链的协调;否则,销售商通过把收益共享契约中的利润分配比例设计为制造商宣布成本的函数,那么在该机制下仍可实现供应链的协调。     

Individualism,Uncertainty Avoidance,and Earnings Momentum in International Markets

This study examines whether cultural dimensions such as individualism and uncertainty avoidance can explain the variation in the profitability of the earnings momentum strategies in international markets. Using the time‐varying cultural indices of Tang and Koveos (2008) for 30,383 firms from 41 countries over the period 1995–2008, we show that the level of individualism in a country is positively associated and the level of uncertainty avoidance is negatively associated with earnings momentum profits. Our findings are robust to the inclusion of a comprehensive set of control variables and alternative cultural metrics. The central message is that we emphasize the necessity to go beyond the assumption of perfect rationality and to account for innate differences among international investors to explain how accounting information is incorporated into stock prices. We recommend that cultural dimensions be included in cross‐country research to account for innate differences among international investors.     

制度质量、外资进入与增长效应:一个跨国的经验研究

本文从制度质量的视角去研究外资进入与经济增长之间的关系,采用建构基准模型以及非线性内生门限的方法,检验了制度质量高低对外资增长效应实现的影响.结果发现,制度质量与外资增长效应之间存在着非线性的倒U型关系,即外资进入引致的增长效应在制度质量相对居中的国家最为显著.对此,我们的解释是,对于制度质量较低的国家,制度改进有利于降低交易成本、推动外资参与东道国经济分工,从而促进经济增长;制度质量达到一定高度之后,东道国内资部门的自生能力在制度改进中得到提高,外资的相对优势降低,因而其增长效应开始弱化.     

动态外资进入与企业技能就业结构优化

在资本全球化不断深化的背景下,文章基于中国微观企业数据库,在考察了外资来源差异、行业异质性与企业所有制差异的基础上,从外资存在、进入速度和波动性三个维度考察了外资流入对中国内资企业技能就业结构的影响。研究发现:外资存在有助于提高我国内资企业高技能就业占比;外资进入速度负向影响内资企业高技能工人雇佣比例,而外资进入的波动性有利于内资企业雇佣熟练工人;动态外资进入过程对外资存在影响企业技能就业结构起调节作用,作用大小在行业层面和企业所有制层面存在异质性。在积极引进外资的过程中,我国应该注重外资引进策略,发挥其促进高质量就业的积极作用。     

Productivity Differences and Foreign Market Entry in an Oligopolistic Industry

We show how productivity differences between foreign and indigenous firms affect the choice of the foreign market entry strategy. We identify the conditions necessary for the adoption of a particular strategy depending on the competing firms?? productivity differences as well as each strategy??s cost. In particular, we study tradeoffs between exporting and JV as well as between JV and WOS that were neglected in the firm heterogeneity literature. We find that high productivity differences led the foreign firm to enter host markets via WOS or exporting monopoly, while in the case of smaller productivity differences they entered via different types of JV. The share in joint venture depended positively on the productivity difference and negatively on trade and investment costs.