Comparative Advantage,Trade, and Transboundary Pollution

It is common for studies on trade and environment issues to model trade patterns as driven by environmental considerations. Under conditions of trade liberalization, these studies predict the rise of pollution havens and an increase in global pollution. The extant empirical literature, however, gives only mixed support at best for the notion that trade patterns are influenced by environmental issues. We develop a simple model to investigate whether trade based on traditional comparative advantage may lead to increased global pollution. We find that trade may lead to increased global pollution if both trading nations exhibit increasing marginal disutilities of pollution.     

粤港澳服务贸易自由化路径研究

随着内地与港澳更紧密贸易关系安排（CEPA）政策的出台,粤港澳经济合作特别是服务业合作进入新的发展阶段。针对这一现实,本文从服务贸易自由化等概念出发,基于完全竞争市场和规模报酬不变假设下的生产者服务贸易自由化模型,根据香港与内地生产者服务贸易特点的相关变量,对CEPA政策实施的生产者服务贸易自由化进行实证研究;分析了粤港澳服务贸易自由化的现状、问题及现实路径。研究表明,大力引进港澳服务业,特别是香港的金融服务业,切实促进前海、横琴等试验区发展,全面落实相关政策的衔接以及相应纳税政策是促进三区域服务贸易自由化的主要路径。     

Resistance to Trade Liberalization in Unionized Sector

This paper studies the lobbying against trade liberalization by both a firm and a union in the same industry. We find that the relationship between their political activities depends on the effect of political activity by one on the marginal effectiveness of political activity by the other. We also show that, when they are strongly risk-averse and their political activities are strategic complements, trade liberalization is likely to be successful if business is brisk, the foreign firm's production cost is high or the number of union members is small. However, when they are not strongly risk-averse, these results hold reversely.     

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Revenue Mobilization and Stability in Sudan

Abstract: This paper attempts to examine key aspects of the Sudanese tax system, paying particular attention to the impact of the recent trade liberalization on government revenues. An eclectic method of analysis is utilized. The results show that the Sudanese tax system as a whole is not buoyant or elastic; the same applies for its major handles. The liberalization reform did not appear to have enhanced revenue productivity and stability in the country. This result indicates the presence of substantial slacks in tax collection and tax evasion. The analysis also shows that tax evasion is the main problem facing tax administration; on average, it stands at about 53 per cent of actual tax yield and 33 per cent of the potential tax yield inclusive of the underground economy's gross domestic product (GDP). Assessment of the determinants of trade revenue suggests that the yield of trade tax has improved due to liberalization; however, the marginal benefit of tax evasion is still considerable. The findings imply that a committed tax reform is crucial for augmenting tax revenue yield as well as for fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic stability.     

Determinants of Taiwan's Trade Liberalization: The Case of a Newly Industrialized Country

This paper attempts to account for the success of policy reform in Taiwan's trade liberalization through an investigation of the periods 1986–92, and 1992–95. The objective is to undertake an empirical examination of Haggard et al.'s (The political feasibility of adjustment in developing countries. Development Centre of the OECD, OECD, Paris, 1995) strategies for minimizing the political costs involved in implementing policy reforms. Empirical evidence supports the Haggard et al. arguments, that is, indirect compensation is used to facilitate the implementation of trade liberalization for downstream industries, while the speed of trade liberalization within certain specific industries is comparatively slow. Furthermore, in a democratic regime, the pressure brought to bear by well-organized domestic interest groups, along with the pressure from international interest groups, can strongly influence the pattern of trade liberalization policies.     

Estimating the economic cost of China's new desulfur policy during her gradual accession to WTO: The case of industrial SO2 emission

To understand the potential impacts of China's accession to WTO on her new desulphur policy (gradual reduction of 10% of annual SO₂ emission by 2005 with respect to that of 2000), we construct a CGE model in which SO₂ emission is directly linked to energy input consumption in production. The model equally considers the substitution possibility between energies of different SO₂ effluent ratios by including energy as labor and capital in the constant elasticity of transformation production function. The positive externality of trade in China's economy is also included. This model is then calibrated into a 55-sector Chinese SAM for the year 1997. Four policy simulations (Business as Usual, Openness policy only, desulfur policy only, and the combination of openness and desulfur policy) are made for the period from 1997 to 2005. The results show that the environmental impact of trade, though proven to be “negative”, stays rather modest. This is owing to the industrial composition transformation that deviates the specialization of the Chinese economy towards labor-intensive sectors under the new trade liberalization process. We do not find evidence for the “pollution haven” hypothesis. Seemingly ambitious, the new desulphur policy will only bring small economic growth loss. The pollution reduction objective will be realized mainly by substitution between polluting and less or non-polluting energies. The combination of trade liberalization and pollution control policy seems to give China more flexibility in adapting her economy to the new desulphur objective. Considering these different aspects together, the total economic loss due to the new desulphur policy will be limited to only − 0.26% under the presence of trade liberalization.     

Economic Liberalization and the Computer Industry: Comparing Outcomes in Brazil and Mexico

Market liberalization has been carried out by many developing countries in the hopes of stimulating trade, investment and technology transfer. In order to analyze the impacts of liberalization on a specific industry sector, this paper compares the experiences of Brazil and Mexico in liberalizing the computer industry in the 1990s. The authors conclude that liberalization leads to lower prices and more rapid diffusion of computer use throughout the economy, but at a cost to domestic computer firms who were harmed by foreign competition. Both countries saw an increase in computer production, but Mexico's production was mainly for export to the United States, while Brazil was producing for the domestic market. The differences between outcomes in the two countries have been determined more by environmental factors than by the nature and pace of liberalization.     

The labor market effects of trade unions in an open economy: Layard meets Melitz

Trade unions are typically able to convert their industrial power into political power. We show that, depending on the constellation of parameters, stronger trade unions may improve welfare in terms of an increase in aggregate employment and output if they successfully lobby for lower trade barriers set by the government.     

Aid for Trade in Developing Countries: Complex Linkages for Real Effectiveness*

Abstract: Aid for trade is intended to support the integration of developing countries into the world trading system. Although this form of aid is being hailed as a promising new development tool, it lacks the strategic dimension that it needs if it is to be truly effective and fulfill donors' policy commitments. From a theoretical perspective, this paper presents the various aid‐for‐trade categories and analyzes the linkages between foreign direct investment, aid for trade and development. It also presents a typology of trade‐related needs for a panel of countries, to serve as a guide for donors in formulating their aid supply strategies. This typology reveals a number of disparities between countries and regions, as well as a low level of regional integration. Trade‐related needs are particularly significant in West Africa and East Africa, and substantial in the infrastructure sector. This paper also stresses the importance of refining the formulation of actual demand by beneficiaries, structuring the aid supply in accordance with donors' specific areas of expertise and enhancing coordination among the various stakeholders, both public and private. Lastly, further trade liberalization will not by itself suffice to generate strong growth and improve the geographical and sectoral distribution of foreign direct investment. Factors such as political stability, the business climate, physical infrastructure, institutions and human capital also play a fundamental role. Of particular importance is the coherence of trade, sectoral, macroeconomic and tax policies, not only within each country and region but also between industrialized and developing countries.     

FDI Deregulation Versus Labor Market Reform: a Political Economy Approach

This paper studies the political economy of foreign direct investment (FDI) in interaction with labor market policies. It analyzes the setting of reform focused on deregulating labor markets as a political compromise pressured by the lobbying of an industry lobby and a trade union. Using a common agency model of lobbying, we show that the interest group’s influence is socially distortive towards less deregulation. Also, our political economy framework shows that, for large countries, exogenous FDI liberalization policies lead to deregulation in the labor market. For small countries, such policies enhance more labor market rigidities.     

Efficiency-distributional trade-offs in the taxation of environmental pollution

Internalizing the externality costs from environmental pollution with a tax has received a great deal of attention and discussion in environmental economics literature. The primary motivation for setting the size of the tax rate is usually driven by economic efficiency considerations, but distributive consequences may play an important role in the decision of whether to adopt a tax. This paper shows how these trade-offs can be addressed when environmental pollution is internalized with a tax.     

贸易自由化与环境保护的平衡——世界贸易组织框架下的环境保护机制探析

作为以促进贸易自由化为宗旨的国际组织,世界贸易组织在平衡贸易自由化与环境保护关系方面显得步履艰难。在制度设计上,世界贸易组织偏重于对贸易自由化的维护,而在案件审理实践中,争端解决机构则越来越顾及环境保护的要求。在新一轮的“多哈回合”中,各方对贸易与环境议题的争论和分歧较大,谈判的失败标志着世界贸易组织框架下的贸易和环境的利益平衡将面临着更多的挑战。     

日本金融服务贸易自由化及其影响的实证分析

从日本经济的发展历程来看,金融服务贸易自由化对其化工产业及其电子信息行业的发展都起到了至关重要的作用。本文依据1985～2008年的日本相关数据,制度性量化指标量化金融服务贸易自由化程度以及估计金融服务贸易自由化程度对人力资本吸收程度、技术吸收程度以及日本经济增长的影响,结论发现金融服务贸易自由化程度越高,人力资本吸收速度越快,技术吸收速度增加对经济增长产生正效应。     

Fiscal Faux Pas?: An Analysis of the Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization

This paper examines the argument that trade liberalization depresses tax revenue/GDP ratios in developing countries. This occurs because the structural characteristics associated with developing countries limit their ability to make the transition from trade to domestic taxes. Using a panel of 80 developing and industrialized countries over 1970–98, the econometric analysis carried out employs a fixed-effects regression framework to examine the evidence. The results indicate that low-income and upper middle-income countries have experienced declining tax revenues as a result of falling income and trade tax revenues and that structural characteristics have been significant in explaining the decline.     

Economic openness and trade linkages of China: An empirical study of the determinants of chinese trade intensities from 1993 to 1999

In the 1980s, the Chinese regime took a number of piecemeal steps toward economic liberalization. This process accelerated impressively in the 1990s. This paper reports an empirical study into the determinants of the emerging pattern of Chinese trade (export and import) intensities in the liberalization decade by exploring international trade statistics for 1993 and 1999. Four models are estimated that explain the shifts in the export and import intensities of the trade with different trade partners in the 1993–1999 period. The estimation results reveal differences for export vis-à-vis import trade intentities, as well as for 1993 compared to 1999. For example, the political determinants of trade intensities that were still very important in 1993 have been moved to the background by economic explanations in 1999. JEL no. F14     

Environmental taxation and employment

Summary This paper explores how environmental taxes affect employment. It argues that the case for environmental taxes should rest on environmental grounds rather than possibly favorable employment effects. Using pollution taxes to shift the tax burden away from labor is likely to be difficult for economic, social, and political reasons. Moreover, these taxes are likely to raise the overall tax burden-even if the revenues are recycled as lower distortionary taxes. To stimulate employment, governments should rely on alternative instruments targeted at the labor market.     

Dynamic Adjustment to Regional Integration: Europe 1992 and NAFTA

Recent research on the gains to trade liberalization, especially in a number of papers by Richard Baldwin, suggests that the static gains to trade liberalization that many economists attempt to measure may be dwarfed by the dynamic gains. One source of these dynamic gains is through capital accumulation. A similar argument can be made regarding the consequences of regional integration. As distortions are removed the effects of aggregate output through dynamic adjustments are likely to be larger than simple static calculations suggest. This paper focuses on the issue of the dynamic gains to regional integration for two recent episodes, European integration known as Europe 1992, and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The paper provides empirical results on the size and nature of global and regional adjustments to these two examples of regional integration. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1994, 8(4), pp. 422–453. Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia; and Brookings Institution, Washington, DC 20036.     

基于PEST框架的中国文化贸易发展研究

本文以国际文化贸易的发展环境和规律的识别为基础,从政治、经济、社会及技术角度分析中国文化贸易所面临的优劣势、机遇及挑战。借鉴各国文化产业和贸易发展的经验,提出政府支持、人才培养和中介组织或公共服务平台的建立是现阶段中国文化服务贸易发展的现实选择途径。     

The Competitive Impact of International Trade: The Case of Import Liberalization of the Japanese Oil Product Market

This paper analyzes the competitive impact of the recent import liberalization of the Japanese oil product market. In response to the import liberalization in March 1996, not only did the market price of gasoline decline sharply but also its domestic production kept rising and did not decline relative to imports. Moreover, its price fell substantially before the actual liberalization of the import. This paper demonstrates both theoretically and empirically that the theory of implicit cartel can explain such features of the impact of import liberalization very well. The paper also identifies the significantly positive welfare impact of such liberalization due to the expansion of supply in a market with a large tax wedge between price and cost and, possibly more importantly, due to the transformation of competitive conduct from unproductive investment for cartel-rent shifting into price cuts. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1999, 13(4), pp. 397–423. Hitotsubashi University; and Keio University. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: L40, F12, K21.     

Gains from Trade: Implications for Labour Market Adjustment and Poverty Reduction in Africa

Abstract: This paper reassesses the gains from trade for sub‐Saharan Africa, and draws their implications for labour market adjustment and poverty reduction. It reviews previous studies on multilateral liberalization, focusing on the findings from Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models with relevance to African economies. The implications of these findings for poverty reduction are discussed. Our own CGE exercise supports the hypothesis that African countries cannot expect substantial gains from further multilateral liberalization. Moreover, given the sharp contraction of import‐competing sectors in response to trade liberalization in many African economies, coupled with insufficient compensation through labour market adjustments in other sectors, this study suggests that the ultimate impact on poverty reduction is likely to be small or even negative.