Alcohol Prices,Consumption, and Traffic Fatalities

We examine the relationships among alcohol prices, consumption, and traffic fatalities using data across U.S. states from 1982 to 2000. Some previous studies have found large, negative associations between alcohol taxes and fatalities. However, commonly used price data suggest little or no connection between alcohol prices and fatalities. These apparently conflicting findings may result from measurement error and/or endogeneity in the price data, which biases ordinary least squares estimators toward a finding of no price effects. Using alcohol taxes as instrumental variables, fatalities are found to be negatively related to prices. In addition, alcohol consumption is strongly positively related to fatalities. However, biases may still remain, because taxes are not entirely suitable as instruments.     

Further evidence of the added-worker effect among white couples

Summary A logit technique is used to estimate couples' joint probabilities of various labor force statuses, given their personal characteristics. Conditional probabilities of the labor force status of wives are inferred. Women whose husbands face employment constraints are compared with counterparts whose husbands face no employment constraints. The results tend to confirm an added-worker effect, especially among women whose husbands are unemployed.The authors aro Assistant Professor at Villanova University in Villanova, PA, and Associate Professor at Widener University in Chester, PA, respectively, and are equally responsible for the contents of this paper.     

Price expectations and consumption under deflation: evidence from Japanese household survey data

The Japanese economy has experienced price deflation since the mid-1990s. Despite the importance of overcoming deflation, there has been little recent research on price expectations in Japan. This paper takes advantage of an original and rich quarterly household-level data set from the “Kokumin Seikatsu Monitors” to estimate average price expectations, examine the factors that affect price expectations, and examine how changes in price expectations have affected household consumption. Our estimates indicate that average price expectations ranged from minus 0.2 to 0% in 2001 and 2002. However, there was an increase to 1% in the first quarter of 2003, followed by a decline to 0.2% in the second quarter, and a steady increase toward 0.8% by the first quarter of 2004. Price expectations depend on current price movements and lagged expectations. A series of quantitative easing monetary policies were not very effective in changing the price expectations, since the policy announcements caused revision of price expectations only for a small portion, i.e., 5–10% of people surveyed. The jump observed in the first quarter of 2003 was a reaction to the outbreak of the Iraq war. Our study also confirms that deflationary expectations discourage household consumption, mainly durable consumption, by delaying the timing of purchases, suggesting that the deflationary expectations should be upwardly revised to restore a vital Japanese economy.     

Income and substitution effects in family labour supply

Summary In this article, the results are presented of the estimation of a variant of Leuthold's model of labour supply of married couples in the Netherlands. Both in the case of husbands and in the case of wives the labour supply curve proves to be forward bending. The income effects are negative, but significantly different from zero only in the case of wives. The theorem that the substitution effect is positive is confirmed by the empirical results obtained. The labour supply of wives proves to be more sensitive to wage rate and income changes than the labour supply of wives proves to be more sensitive to wage rate and income changes than the labour supply of husbands. A comparison is made between the results obtained here and those mentioned in studies for the United States. The article is closed with an overview of some policy implications. During the period the author contributed to this article he was at the Economic Institute, State University of Utrecht; The authors wish to thank Dr. C. de Galan, Professor J.M.M. Ritzen, Dr. J.J.M. Theeuwes and Professor F.A.A.M. van Winden for their comments on an earlier draft of this article. Unless when stated otherwise, the data are obtained from theAanvullend Voorzieningengebruik Onderzoek 1979, a national survey carried out by the Social and Cultural Planning Bureau. The authors are indebted to this bureau for providing the data. It should be noted that some of these data (e.g. the yearly wage incomes) are based on computational adaptions of the original figures.     

三大重点能耗部门能源消费的面板协整分析

将面板数据模型和协整理论结合起来,以1985—2008年我国三大重点能耗部门（工业、建筑和交通运输部门）的截面数据为依托,构建能源消费的面板协整模型。实证分析了我国三大重点能耗部门的能源消费和产业产值之间的面板协整关系。在得出变系数的面板模型达到基础上,对模型进行面板单位根检验和面板协整检验,得出长期稳定的均衡关系。结论对于三大重点能耗部门制定能源发展战略奠定了基础。     

Relative earnings of husbands and wives in urban China

This paper studies the relative contribution of Chinese husbands and wives to the family income in the process of economic transition. We find that the role of urban husbands as the main financial supporters of their families becomes relatively more important during economic transition. We argue that this trend may have reflected the restoration of the functions of household production and labor market in the process of economic transition. This restoration allows households to allocate time, effort and human capital investment for each household member and for each household and market activity in a more efficient way.     

居民收入、心理预期及其商品房价格波动

选取不同收入水平城镇居民1998～2009年的收入、消费面板数据,考察房价波动对收入和消费的影响,引入宏观经济和房屋抵押效应控制变量,利用房屋租赁价格构造房屋销售价格的工具变量进行实证研究。结果表明:房价波动下城镇居民人均可支配收入与消费间存在必然的因果关系,不同收入水平的城镇居民存在明显的消费差异。房价上涨对所有收入水平城镇居民的消费均有挤出效应,房屋财富效应则不明显,当期可支配收入是决定城镇居民房地产消费的最重要因素。     

The importance of being earners: why women in South Africa need well-paid jobs

The ‘children fare better’ viewpoint claims that children tend to be better fed if their mother (as opposed to father) has sufficient income of her own for food. This paper assesses this claim for South Africa, using data from household surveys. It considers the possibility that this issue is related to domestic violence between husband and wife, and finds an apparent link between wife's earnings, child nutrition and domestic violence. Children's well-being seems more assured if mothers have an adequate income; but there is more risk of inadequate nutrition in households where there is domestic violence against wives.     

房产信贷约束下中国房价波动与非住房消费的门槛效应分析

针对城镇居民非住房消费不足与高房价并存的典型现象,运用面板门槛模型对31个省区市2005—2019年的数据进行研究,探讨房价波动对非住房消费的影响并揭示空间差异。结果表明：房价波动对家庭非住房消费既有挤出效应也有财富效应,其中随着房产信贷约束的放松,挤出效应减弱,而财富效应增强;东部、中部、西部和东北部之间的门槛效应是异质的;各地区住房信贷约束水平存在明显差异,对房价与非住房消费之间的异质性关联起着至关重要的作用;房价波动和房产信贷约束并不是导致低消费的综合因素,无法负担的房价以及家庭抚养负担的增加是低消费的综合因素。因此,稳定房价仍是当务之急,房产信贷政策应与房地产市场的发展相适应,以促进消费。     

中国电力能源效率影响因素研究

论文选取我国29个省、市、自治区2000—2009年10年的面板数据,利用面板平滑转换模型深入分析产业结构、能源消费结构、技术进步、对外开放程度及电力价格五大因素对电力能源效率的影响程度及影响机制,结果显示：①第二产业的比重对电力能源效率具有负向影响,但随着产业结构的不断优化升级,电力能源效率反而逐渐提升;②电力消费量占能源消费总量的比重对电力能源效率的提高具有反作用;③技术进步水平、进出口贸易总额占GDP比重均会促进电力能源效率的提高;④电力价格对电力能源效率的影响不明显,若想通过调整电价来大幅提高我国的电力能源效率,效果可能并不显著,但对于寻找替代能源、发展清洁新能源可能会有一定的促进作用。最后,有针对性地为提高我国的电力能源效率提出政策建议。     

论婚前财产约定制

婚前财产协议作为夫妻财产约定的重要方式也越来越受到人们的关注,婚前财产协议体现了现代人对婚姻生活的高度理性,不仅在一定程度上避免了以金钱、财产为筹码的功利性婚姻,而且也是解决今后婚姻、财产纠纷的重要法律依据。     

Intranational, Intracontinental, and Intraplanetary PPP

A model of adjustment toward PPP for a panel of real exchange rates is introduced that allows varying speeds of convergence within nations, within continents and across continents. We allow for correlation across equations in our panel, and estimate the model using generalized least squares. The panel consists of the price levels of eight cities in four countries and two continents. We do not find evidence in favor of reversion to PPP for any group of cities.J. Japan. Int. Econ.,December 1997,11(4), pp. 480–501. Department of Economics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195-3330 and NBER; Department of Economics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195-3330; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Division, Stop 22, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551.     

Employment,Wages, and Alcohol Consumption in Russia

This article investigates the association between alcohol consumption and labor market outcomes in Russia, using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). It estimates cross-sectional and fixed effects models of the impacts of alcohol consumption on employment and wages for males and females using three different measures of drinking. The cross-sectional findings indicate that alcohol consumption has an inverse U-shaped impact on employment and wages for females. The impact on males appears to be positive but the inverse-U shape is less pronounced. Once the unobserved individual heterogeneity is accounted for using fixed effects, alcohol consumption is found to have no significant effect on employment for either males or females. The fixed effect wage models indicate that alcohol consumption has a small, positive, but linear impact on the wage rate for both males and females. Models including fixed effects generate estimates that are smaller in magnitude compared with those of cross-sectional models. The findings are robust to several diagnostic checks.     

城乡居民消费水平的影响因素分析

本文在对影响我国城乡居民消费水平主要因素进行分析的基础上,借助凯恩斯的消费函数表达式,采用1985～2009年我国城乡居民人均收入与消费的时间序列数据和2009年我国城乡居民人均收入与消费的省级面板数据,实证分析了我国居民收入水平对其消费的影响。实证分析结果表明,城乡居民的边际消费倾向都比较接近1,表明城乡居民收入水平对其消费水平有显著的正向影响。实证分析结果也显示,城镇居民自生消费水平明显高于农村居民,表明城乡居民存在明显的收入差距。因此,增加城乡居民收入,特别是增加农村居民收入,缩小城乡居民收入差距对提高我国居民整体消费水平有重要现实意义。     

How responsive is Chinese export supply to market signals?

This paper studies the behavior of Chinese exporters from the mid-1980s through 2001. Extensive quarterly data on values and quantities of major export products have been taken from Chinese customs statistics to form a panel data set and aggregate export unit price and volume indices. The data are used to estimate export supply price elasticities, including by industry groups. The overall results indicate an increase in the responsiveness of export supply to market price signals in more recent periods following reforms.     

Family size,labor supply,and job prestige: Evidence from three decennial censuses in China

This study investigates the relationship between family size and parents’ labor market performance, measured by labor supply and occupational prestige scores, based on three census waves in 1990, 2000, and 2010. To address the endogeneity problem of family size, we use the indicator of twins at first birth as an instrumental variable. Our results suggest that in nuclear households, family size affects the labor market performance only of mothers, not of fathers, with the negative effects fading and gradually disappearing over time. More specifically, an increase in family size decreases female labor supply in the 1990 wave, leads to lower prestige scores among working mothers in the 2000 wave, and has no impact on labor supply or occupational prestige scores in the 2010 wave. Our subsample analysis indicates that the negative effects of family size are more severe for parents of households with all children under seven years old and for husbands or wives with lower education level than that of their partners. In addition, we find that the negative effects of family size on parental labor market outcomes are not observed in extended households, especially when no grandparents are aged 65 years or older.     

Home ownership,housing price and social security expenditure

This paper analyzes the substitution and trade-off effects of homeownership and housing price on social security expenditure. We construct a theoretical model to investigate the optimal choice for individual and government in social security system with estate transaction. The model predicts that the government is more likely to decrease (increase) social security spending under a higher home rate when house price rises (falls). We test 35 metropolises panel data which spans the year of 1998–2012 under a two-way fixed effects framework. Our empirical analysis supports the theoretical prediction. The estimation results show that at the current home rate 82%, 1% increase in housing price will lead to 1.15 Yuan reduction in social security spending per capita.     

Wives’ Value of Time and Food Consumed Away from Home in Taiwan*

In the present paper, we examine the relationship between wives’ value of time and expenditures on food away from home (FAFH) in Taiwan between 1983 and 2000. An endogenous switching regression model is used to model the household's consumption decision on FAFH. The empirical results show that wives’ value of time, household income, presence of young children and grandparents, and wives’ educational attainment are important factors for both participation in consuming and amount spent on FAFH. The income elasticities of FAFH have increased from 0.09 to 0.17 over the sample period. Moreover, other things being equal, the level of spending on FAFH has also increased over time. The results suggest that there has been a structural change in the consumption pattern of FAFH by families in Taiwan.     

Gender norms and marriage satisfaction: Evidence from China

This paper examines the association between the traditional gender division norm — “men are breadwinners, and women are homemakers” — and the marriage satisfaction of each gender using Chinese couple-level data. The results reveal that married couples tend to be less satisfied with their marriage if the wife earns more than the husband. Moreover, it seems that the drop in the husband's marriage satisfaction matters more for the drop in the couple's overall marriage satisfaction. By exploring the difference between husbands and wives in their attitudes in terms of economic contribution and housework contribution, we confirm that husbands may have a specific self-image regarding the traditional gender division norm, and can also respond to the wives' gender role preference.     

The Role of Markets,Technology, and Policy in Generating Palm-Oil Demand in Indonesia

Indonesia produces more palm oil and consumes more palm oil per capita than any country in the world. This article examines the processes through which Indonesia has promoted palm-oil consumption and some of the consequences of that promotion. Partial equilibrium modelling shows that Indonesia's remarkable increase in palm-oil consumption since 1985 is not largely attributable to population and income growth. Instead, much of this consumption growth has resulted from substitution away from coconut oil, facilitated by government policies on technology, pricing, distribution, and trade. The switch from coconut oil to palm oil in Indonesia was associated with increased land conversions to agriculture and diminished smallholder competitiveness. Despite lower rates of cooking-oil substitution in the future, simulations suggest that Indonesia's total palm-oil consumption in 2035 will be at least double that of 2010.