中国代际收入流动性估计:基于随机系数模型

文章利用 1989-2011 年的中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）数据对中国的代际收入流动进行了分析。在充分控制生命周期偏误的前提下,文章通过构建随机系数模型进一步修正了模型设定偏误对估计结果的影响。实证结果表明,全国总体的代际收入弹性为 0.6 左右,农村内部为 0.7 左右,城市内部为 0.5 左右。我们发现,生命周期偏误倾向于导致低估代际收入弹性,但模型设定偏误对估计结果的影响方向并不确定。由于解决生命周期偏误的措施无法解决模型设定偏误,以住的研究有可能低估农村的代际流动,高估城市的代际流动。     

An Approach to Adjusting Analysts' Consensus Forecasts for Selection Bias*

Many recent empirical studies have concluded that analysts' earnings forecasts are optimistic on average. In this paper, we attempt to undo the effect of one potential source of optimistic bias in analysts' earnings forecasts. Assuming forecasts come from a truncated normal distribution, we estimate the “true” population mean using maximum likelihood. We find that our estimates of earnings are more accurate and less biased than standard measures of sample mean and median. However, we do not find a closer relationship between excess market returns and forecast errors from our maximum likelihood estimate than from the sample mean. This may suggest that the market does not fully incorporate analysts' incentives in generating expectations about future earnings.     

Overweight Adolescents and On-time High School Graduation: Racial and Gender Disparities

Obesity among U.S. adolescents ages 12–19 rose from 4.6% in 1963–1965 to 17.4% in 2003–2004. This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of unhealthy body mass index (BMI) on health (e.g., obesity) and human capital (e.g., schooling) investments of adolescents. We use the propensity score method to study 8,388 individuals who responded to survey Waves I through III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), for students in grades 7–12. We estimate an economic model that captures longer-term effects of BMI categories (obesity and overweight separately) on on-time (dichotomous) high school graduation. We control for characteristics at the individual, household, and community levels. Baseline probit regression estimates were improved upon by using matching estimators (propensity scores yield consistent estimate of the average treatment on the treated) based on the nearest neighbor and the more robust kernel density weighting schemes. Results from both full and reduced models suggest no adverse impact of overweight or obesity on timely high school completion for males, but a significant average negative effect on females. Investigating disparities in effects across both gender and race, we isolate the adverse effects primarily to white and Asian females. No significant effects were found for African-Americans. One of the novel contributions of our research is that the significant effects of gender- and race- specific adolescent obesity and overweight conditions reach beyond high school GPA standing to also impact on-time high school graduation status.     

What effect does the size of the state-owned sector have on regional growth in China?

This paper examines the effects state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have on China's economic growth. We present a simple and intuitive model of the political process, which predicts a larger state-owned sector will lead to lower growth rates. We then estimate regressions with various measures of and proxies for real output growth using a variety of other factors, including measures of the size of the state-owned sector, as regressors.We find a robust negative relation between the size of state-owned enterprises and the provincial growth rate. The estimates indicate that a decrease in the SOE share of industrial production by 10 percentage points increases real GDP growth the following year by between 0.7% and 1.2%. The average impact of a reduction in the SOE share in employment by 10 percentage points is between 1.6% and 2.3%.     

Estimating the Size and Impact of Affirmative Action in Undergraduate Admissions at the University of Cape Town

In this paper, we estimate the extent and targeting of affirmative action at the University of Cape Town (UCT), a large public university in South Africa. To do this we use admissions data from the UCT, as well as South African population census data and administrative enrolment and graduation data from the South African Department of Higher Education. We find that affirmative action does have a significant effect on the racial distribution of who is made an offer by the university. We also find that affirmative action is well targeted, with those who we estimate to be beneficiaries being of much lower socioeconomic status than those who we estimate are displaced by affirmative action. Beneficiaries of affirmative action have low graduation rates on average, with those beneficiaries who attend UCT being less likely to graduate than those beneficiaries who enrol at other public universities.     

International comparison in historical perspective: Reconstructing the 1934-1936 Benchmark purchasing power parity for Japan, Korea, and Taiwan

This article provides the first expenditure-based estimate of purchasing power parity (PPP) converters for 1934-1936 Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We match all together 70-80 types of goods and services for private consumption, government expenditure and investment using three levels of weights derived from various expenditure surveys. We find that the 1934-1936 average prices of Korea for private consumption, investment, and government expenditure were about 0.86, 0.89, and 0.98 times that of Japan, respectively; and for Taiwan 0.84, 0.87, and 0.95, respectively. This gives the 1934-1936 Korea and Taiwan overall GDE average price levels of 0.87 and 0.86 that of Japan, respectively. Our new benchmark estimate is an improvement over existing converters based either on exchange rates or the 1990 backward projection method, which is embedded with index number biases. It provides a vital link for a long-term overview of structural change, ethnic income distribution, and the historical convergence for these three economies.     

TRADE UNIONS AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

This paper investigates the relationship between trade unionsand financial performance using British establishment-leveldata. We estimate the average overall impact of manual unionrecognition in 1990 to be roughly half what it was in 1984.We report results suggesting that in 1990 unionized establishmentshave lower financial performance only where there are closedshop arrangements and the establishments have some product marketpower and that this effect is greater where managerial freedomto allocate tasks is limited by union work rules. This lattercombination occurs in only about one in ten of the unionizedworkplaces in our sample.     

对费雪效应的重新考察:来自面板协整的国际新证据

本文利用50个国家1981～2007年的面板数据重新考察了费雪效应.面板单位根检验发现,利率和通货膨胀率均存在单位根;异质面板协整检验的结论认为,弱费雪效应显著成立;利用完全修正的OLS和动态OLS方法对发达国家和发展中国家分别进行估计和检验,发现发展中国家存在弱费雪效应,而发达国家存在严格费雪效应;文章最后讨论了本文研究结论的货币政策含义,分析了中国利率政策实施中的问题并提出了建议.     

Finding the Benefits: Estimating the Impact of The South African Child Support Grant

This paper estimates the impact of the South African Child Support Grant (CSG) on child health, nutrition and education. Data from the 2008 South African National Income Dynamics Study are used to estimate the impact of the CSG on six different outcomes measuring child well‐being. We find a positive treatment effect of the CSG on children's height‐for‐age, progress through the school system, as well as household expenditure on food items using a continuous treatment estimator developed by Hirano and Imbens. Robustness analysis using the inverse probability weighting approach by Flores and Mitnik is also implemented. Although these estimates provide some evidence of a positive impact resulting from the CSG, they are not conclusive in showing that the cash transfers are spent mainly on improving the lives of beneficiary children, as the treatment effects are quite small.     

Remittances and expenditure patterns of the left behinds in rural China

This paper investigates how private transfers from internal migration in China affect the expenditure behavior of families left behind in rural areas. Using data from the Rural–Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) survey, we assess the impact of remittances sent to rural households on consumption-type and investment-type expenditures. We apply propensity score matching to account for the selection of households into receiving remittances, and estimate average treatment effects on the treated. We find that remittances supplement income in rural China and lead to increased consumption rather than increased investment. Moreover, we find evidence of a strong negative impact on education expenditures, which could be detrimental to sustaining investment in human capital in poor rural areas in China.     

The Effect of Reimbursement on the Intensity of Hospital Services

We examine how hospital treatment intensity is affected by an exogenous change in average reimbursement for an admission. Theory predicts that treatment intensity would be most affected for highly profitable services but unaffected for unprofitable services. We use Medicare inpatient data from 11 states for 16 disease categories that vary in the generosity of reimbursement to test this prediction. Using the coefficients from quantile regressions, we calculate a difference-in-difference estimate of the effect of the Balanced Budget Act (BBA) of 1998, comparing the pre- and post-BBA change in treatment intensity at high Medicare share hospitals to low Medicare share hospitals. We find that not-for-profit hospitals cut treatment intensity at the 50th, 75th, and 95th quantiles only for generously reimbursed services. Intensity at the 25th percentile was unaffected, regardless of generosity. We did not measure a statistically significant response at for-profit or public hospitals to the BBA.     

The Causal Effects of Participation in the American Economic Association Summer Minority Program

This article examines whether participation by underrepresented minority groups in the American Economics Association Summer Minority Program (AEASMP) has causal effects on outcomes associated with success as academic economists. We estimate both propensity score weighted and Heckit parameter estimates of (1) the average effect of treatment and (2) the effect of treatment on the treated. Our results, which vary across specifications of potential outcomes and propensity score truncated samples, suggest that AEASMP participation by black American Ph.D. economists has a positive and causal impact on 4 outcomes associated with success as an academic economist. However if the probability of selection into the treatment by the nontreated is similar to that of the treated, the results suggest that AEASMP participation by black American Ph.D. economists has a positive and causal effect on research productivity and in gaining access to research funding.     

Optimising balance using covariate balancing propensity score: The case of South African child support grant

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we explore the use of covariate balancing propensity scores (CBPS) in estimating the impact of the South African child support grant (CSG) on the height-for-age score of benefiting children. CBPS is a different approach to estimating propensity score, under CBPS the scores are estimated such that the estimation incorporates covariate balancing condition. This approach is therefore relatively robust to misspecification of the propensity score model which makes it ideal for this case study. We show that utilising the CBPS leads to treatment effect estimate that is larger and more precisely estimated than estimates that have been reported in the literature because the method exploits the dual function of propensity score. The effect of CSG under CBPS is as large as 44% of standard deviation on average. This implies that the effect of the grant cannot be regarded as small as previously reported in the literature.     

On-the-job training and productivity: Firm-level evidence from a large developing country

We investigate the effects of on-the-job training on firm productivity and wages using a large panel data set constituted of all large and medium size manufacturing firms in China over 2003–2007. We estimate firm productivity carefully with a recent semiparametric method and combine the propensity score matching and the difference-in-differences techniques to estimate the treatment effect of training. We find consistent evidence that i) training helps boost firm productivity and wages; ii) the higher the training expenditure per capita, the higher the increase in productivity and wages; iii) firms benefit more from training than workers. These findings are not sensitive to industrial capital intensity or firm ownership structure.     

The Relative Returns to Graduating from a Historically Black College/University: Propensity Score Matching Estimates from the National Survey of Black Americans

This paper considers the returns to earning a baccalaureate degree from a Historically Black College/University (HBCU) relative to a non-HBCU for black Americans. With data from the National Survey of Black Americans, we use propensity score matching estimators to estimate the treatment effect of graduating from an HBCU on direct labor market outcomes, and on psychological outcomes that indirectly increase wages. We find that the treatment effect of graduating from an HBCU relative to a non-HBCU is positive with respect to labor market and psychological outcomes across three decades. As our direct labor market outcome measure reflects permanent earnings, our results suggest that as HBCUs afford graduates relatively superior long-run returns they continue to have a compelling educational justification, as the labor market outcomes of their graduates are superior to what they would have been had they graduated from a non-HBCU.     

The effect of coresidence on parental health in Japan

The empirical evidence of the effect of intergenerational coresidence by elderly parents and their adult children on parental health remains inconclusive. This study provides a new estimate of the coresidence effect by addressing non-random selection and heterogeneity in the treatment effect. Examination of Japanese data reveals: (i) an insignificant, negative average coresidence effect; (ii) a significant, negative coresidence effect on the treated; and (iii) that parents with unmet care needs and limited resources, typically widowed, disabled mothers, are most likely to suffer from a significant, negative coresidence effect. The results support the theory that coresidence may worsen elderly parents’ health because care burdens on their adult children create disincentives for the parents to invest in longevity. The significant heterogeneity in the coresidence effect suggests potential scope for a better-targeted long-term care program.     

Who Herds? Who Doesn't? Estimates of Analysts’ Herding Propensity in Forecasting Earnings

We develop parametric estimates of the imitation‐driven herding propensity of analysts and their earnings forecasts. By invoking rational expectations, we solve an explicit analyst optimization problem and estimate herding propensity using two measures: First, we estimate analysts’ posterior beliefs using actual earnings plus a realization drawn from a mean‐zero normal distribution. Second, we estimate herding propensity without seeding a random error, and allow for nonorthogonal information signals. In doing so, we avoid using the analyst's prior forecast as the proxy for his posterior beliefs, which is a traditional criticism in the literature. We find that more than 60 percent of analysts herd toward the prevailing consensus, and herding propensity is associated with various economic factors. We also validate our herding propensity measure by confirming its predictive power in explaining the cross‐sectional variation in analysts’ out‐of‐sample herding behavior and forecast accuracy. Finally, we find that forecasts adjusted for analysts’ herding propensity are less biased than the raw forecasts. This adjustment formula can help researchers and investors obtain better proxies for analysts’ unbiased earnings forecasts.     

Unemployment and underemployment in Bangladesh agriculture

The paper starts with a critique of the various concepts of unemployment and underemployment from which follows the framework in which the author seeks to investigate and estimate unemployment and underemployment. Unemployment is broken down into various categories so that one can know the composition of the agricultural unemployed and underemployed. All the previous estimates had failed to provide such information. In the rest of the paper various estimates are made and implications discussed in the contest of the framework outlined and using first hand information from a survey of some villages conducted by the author himself.     

Intergenerational Transfers and Asset Inequality in Japan: Empirical Evidence from New Survey Data

This paper quantitatively examines the impact of intergenerational transfers on asset inequality among Japanese households. We estimate an intergenerational asset transfer function with various control variables, using a unique micro dataset taken from a survey conducted by the Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office. Employing three different models, a Tobit model, an interval regression model and an ordered probit model, to ensure that our results are independent of the specific econometric approach used, we investigate whether asset transfers received are correlated with households’ financial strength. We find that higher income households are likely to receive larger asset transfers. However, the contribution of intergenerational transfers to asset inequality appears to be small.     

The Effects of Labor Markets and Income Inequality on Crime: Evidence from Panel Data

We estimate a model of crime using panel data for the U.S. We focus on the role of labor markets, income distribution, and demographics on property crime. We find strong evidence that favorable labor market conditions have a significant negative effect on property crime. We further test this result using sector-specific wages and find that crime is most elastic with respect to wages in sectors that use low-skilled labor. We also find that income inequality has no significant effect on crime and that the proportion of young males in the population has a significant positive effect on crime.