国际商品市场中"一价定律"的验证:共同概率模型和动态贸易变量

本文讨论并引伸了Barrett和Li(2002)提出的共同概率模型,在原有基础上将贸易变量动态化,以增加在经验分析中所包含的信息量和解释能力。考虑到国际商品贸易的跨期性,我们的预期价格采用了商品期货价。我们用改进后的方法对中美大豆贸易做了实证分析,发现两国大豆市场自1995年以来基本上是整合的,并发现对竞争性均衡关系的偏离主要发生在早期,即在中国商品期货市场完善和农产品市场体制改革之前。研究还发现两国大豆价差在南美豆收获期后明显缩小。收益不确定性参数的t检验不显著在一定程度上表明了进口商对价格风险的规避行为。     

Exchange Rate Shocks and the Speed of Trade Price Adjustment

A quantity adjustment cost model is developed in the context of international trade along the lines proposed by Krugman (1987). The model implies that prices adjust dynamically to exchange rate fluctuations. The price adjustment speed is determined as a function of foreign demand responsiveness, the appropriate discount rate, and an adjustment cost parameter. Pass-through is incomplete and increases over time and with the speed of price adjustment. A preliminary empirical analysis finds that the speed of price adjustment from the time series by industry and then in a cross-sectional regression tentatively relates the obtained adjustment speeds to their theoretical determinants.     

贸易财属性与贸易政策竞争均衡

本文利用两国两异质财货的产业内贸易模型,讨论贸易财属性与贸易政策竞争均衡的决定,并获得以下结论:(1)当两国政府均采取相同的进口或出口政策时,不论产品的消费性质,最适进口贸易政策均为课税;最适出口贸易政策将随贸易财的消费性质而定.替代品为出口补贴,互补品为出口课税.(2)当产品为替代品且厂商在两国市场均实行数量竞争的情况下,进口课税政策虽将成为两国政府的优势策略,但出口补贴政策则更具有效率.在产品为互补品且厂商在两国市场均实行价格竞争的情况下,当产品的互补程度较小(大)时,进口课税(出口课税)政策将成为两国政府的优势策略;当互补程度中等时,两国政府有可能采取差异性的贸易政策.     

论贸易收支、外汇储备与人民币国际化的协调和均衡发展

国际金融危机爆发以来,我国政府对对外经济贸易政策进行了一系列调整,目标在于收缩贸易顺差、抑制外汇储备增量和推动人民币国际化。但是,政策运行的结果显示,贸易收支、外汇储备和人民币国际化的发展并不协调,具体表现为贸易顺差收缩与外汇储备扩张之间的不协调及人民币国际化进程加快与外汇储备扩张之间的不协调。研究表明,两大不协调的主要原因都在于跨境贸易人民币结算的失衡。我们应该出台鼓励出口贸易人民币结算的配套政策,使跨境贸易出口人民币结算与进口人民币结算达到平衡,实现贸易收支、外汇储备与人民币国际化的均衡协调发展。     

当前价格执法存在的问题及对策

价格执法是当前市场经济条件下的一个重要课题，本文探讨了当前价格执法存在的主要问题，原因和问题解决的对策。     

加工贸易与一般贸易进出口价格的汇率传递估计与比较分析

本文从不同的贸易方式角度对人民币升值的进出口价格传递效应进行了理论建模和实证分析。文章首先依据利润最大化的厂商目标对进出口厂商的定价行为进行模型设定,其次对两种不同贸易方式中进出口价格的汇率传递进行估计和实证检验,最后得出分析结论:人民币升值对我国一般贸易价格的影响较小且不显著,而对我国加工贸易价格的影响较大且显著。     

构建浙江省“四位一体”贸易预警机制跨越国外贸易壁垒

受欧美债务危机的影响,世界经济增长缓慢,贸易保护主义盛行。浙江是我国的外贸出口大省,也是遭遇贸易摩擦最多的省份之一,因此建立和完善对外贸易摩擦预警机制就显得尤为重要。通过构建"四位一体"的贸易摩擦预警机制,企业、行业协会、政府和专业技术机构共同努力,建立服务网络,给企业提供相关培训,调整出口方向等,发挥各自的作用,帮助企业度过难关,积极跨越国外贸易壁垒。     

Indonesia's Trade and Price Interventions: Pro-Java and Pro-Urban

In 1987 and 1995 Indonesia's price and trade policies (intervention regime) increased the income of Java's urban centres and reduced that of people living in rural Java and the other islands. This happened because the regime protected manufacturing activities, most of them located in Jakarta, Bandung and Surabaya, and taxed primary sector based activities, located outside urban Java. It protected some primary sector based activities directly, but the entire intervention regime, with manufacturing protection included, taxed them. As a result, regions deriving income from primary sector based activities lost. Indonesia's intervention regime is regressive: it transfers income from poorer to richer regions. This regime and its effects on regional incomes continue. Governments have designed programs to raise the income of Eastern Indonesia, but have omitted the most effective instrument: opening the economy to international competition. A serious attempt to reduce regional income disparities should begin by eliminating barriers to international trade.     

中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易成本弹性测度与分析:基于超对数引力模型

Novy(2013)超越对数引力模型使贸易成本内生化,更符合现实情况。文章在其基础上测度并分析2007~2014年中国与一带一路沿线国家贸易成本弹性,研究结果显示,中国与一带一路沿线国家的贸易成本弹性不断下降,但均大于0;从洲际来看,中国与亚洲国家的平均贸易成本弹性变化大于中国与欧洲国家的平均贸易成本弹性变化;从区域来看,中国与中亚、东盟的平均贸易成本弹性变化大于中国与西亚、南亚、东亚的平均贸易成本弹性变化,中国与中东欧的平均贸易成本弹性大于中国与独联体的平均贸易成本弹性。中国应通过降低贸易成本,加大与一带一路沿线国家的贸易合作,创造贸易效应。     

Alchian and Allen Revisited: Law Enforcement and the Price of Weed

Alchian and Allen (1964) theorized that the imposition of a fixed fee or a unit cost in a market with multiple quality grades of the good would encourage consumption of the higher quality grades. Using newly available data on marijuana prices by state, we empirically test the hypothesis that the price of higher quality marijuana will be higher in states with more strict enforcement of marijuana possession laws. Consistent with the Alchian-Allen theorem, the relative price of both medium- and high-quality marijuana are found to be greater in states with stricter law enforcement, suggesting an increase in demand for such varieties.     

Price Fluctuations and Growth Patterns in Singapore's Trade, 1831–1913

Using a newly created trade price index, this paper determines the real growth rate of Singapore's trade during 1831–1913. We find that Singapore's trade grew between 1831 and 1873 at a higher rate than during the later period. An analysis of the terms of trade and purchasing power parity reveals that the growth pattern of Singapore's entrepôt trade changed after 1850 from growth fuelled by transit trade of industrial products to balanced growth between regional imports and exports. This change resulted from the operation of the international monetary system, which enhanced market integration between Britain and Southeast Asia via Singapore.     

价格歧视原理在国际原油贸易中的应用

随着中国石油消费的快速增长,从中东进口的原油量逐年增加,"亚洲溢价"对中国经济的影响也越来越大。中东原油的"亚洲溢价"现象的实质是价格歧视。本文运用价格歧视理论对"亚洲溢价"问题进行了深入分析,发现亚洲对中东原油的需求价格弹性较小,中东国家通过"目的地限制"和"禁止转售"条款实现市场的有效分割,从而可以通过价格歧视来实现垄断利润。     

进口企业价格欺瞒与海关监管——博弈均衡分析与经验描述

文章借助博弈论的分析工具,对进口企业价格欺瞒和海关监管行为进行均衡分析,提出命题和推论,并利用广州海关关于进口企业价格欺瞒的案件进行描述性统计分析,初步验证本文的命题和推论。     

Effects of Trade Liberalization on Taiwan: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Joining the GATT has been established as one of the most important economic and political targets of the Taiwan government. However, the effects of this action are difficult to establish. Because of the openness of Taiwan's domestic market there could be serious changes in the production structure and income distribution, especially in the relative status of the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors, of protected and unprotected sectors, and also of producers and consumers. The possible high cost of this move on society has caused its necessity to be questioned. In order to clear up the controversy surrounding this issue, this paper, uses a CGE model to analyse the possible effects of this policy change. Following proposals from the Final Draft of the Uruguay Round, we use tariff and nontariff barriers, aggregate measurement of support (AMS), and export quota in our model as policy tools. We omit liberalization in the service sector, because of quantification difficulties. Our analysis includes the impacts on resource allocation, production structure, income distribution and consumers' welfare.     

技术溢出、技术创新和对外贸易——基于一般均衡视角的一个理论分析框架

文章从微观经济主体的最优化行为出发构建模型,分析技术溢出对技术创新等的影响发现:在封闭经济条件下,创新部门对非创新部门技术溢出的变化对实际工资和消费具有正向效应,而对技术创新的影响则取决于产品替代弹性的大小。在开放经济条件下,任一国技术溢出的变化均会对两国的实际工资和消费产生正向效应;外国对本国技术溢出的变化,对两国的技术创新均具有正向效应,一国创新部门对非创新部门技术溢出的变化会对另一国的技术创新具有正向效应,但对其国内技术创新的影响则取决于产品替代弹性的大小;两国经济地位的变化取决于两国技术进步速度对比的变化。     

Intra-Industry Trade in Intermediate Goods and Final Goods in a General Equilibrium Setting

This article develops a dual general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of intra-industry trade in both intermediate goods and final goods on the productivity in the final good production. Intra-industry trade in intermediate goods determines an increase in the number of intermediate good varieties available in the final good production, and intra-industry trade in final goods determines a reduction in the number of adaptations of an intermediate good to the final good production. Thereby, the productivity in the final good production increases. Different shares of intra-industry trade in intermediate goods and final goods in a general equilibrium setting implies that Jones' magnification effect and both the Rybczynski theorem and the Stolper-Samuelson theorem are not valid.