How Sensitive is U.S.-Canadian Trade to the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Industry Data

Previous research has followed four distinct paths to investigate the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance of a country, using mostly aggregate trade data. In this paper we choose one of those paths and consider the trade between the U.S. and Canada. However, unlike previous research we disaggregate the trade data between the two countries by commodity and consider 152 industries that trade. After estimating inpayment and outpayment schedules for all 152 industries, we find that real depreciation has short-run effects on inpayments of 72 and outpayments of 53 industries. However, the short-run effects translate into the long-run effects only in 43 of inpayment models and 36 of outpayment models. Further analysis reveals that 1% real depreciation of the U.S. dollar has 1.29% positive effects on the U.S. net export earnings.     

Trade Flows,Exchange Rate Uncertainty,and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries

This article investigates the effects of real exchange rate uncertainty on manufactures exports from 28 emerging economies, representing 82% of all developing country manufactures exports, and explores the sources of heterogeneity in the uncertainty effects by controlling for the direction of trade (south‐north or south‐south), and the level of financial development of the exporting country. The empirical results show that for more than half of the countries, the uncertainty effect is unidirectional, either south‐south or south‐north, and the median impact is negative. In addition, while we find that financial development augments trade, exchange rate shocks can negate this effect. Last but not least, trade among developing economies improves export growth under exchange rate shocks.     

Global Trade Flows: Revisiting the Exchange Rate Elasticities

Open Economies Review - This paper contributes to the debate on the magnitude of exchange rate elasticities by providing a set of price and quantity elasticities for 51 advanced and emerging-market...     

The South Africa-U.S. Trade and the Real Exchange Rate: Asymmetric Evidence from 25 Industries

Previous studies that assessed the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of South Africa assumed that the effects are symmetric. In this paper we violate that assumption and assess the asymmetric effects of the real rand-dollar rate on the trade balance of 25 2-digit industries that trade between South Africa and the U.S. We find short-run asymmetric effects in a total of 19 industries but short-run cumulative or impact asymmetric effects only on five industries. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects on 14 industries. Further analysis revealed industries that will benefit from rand depreciation and those that will be hurt from rand appreciation.     

Exchange Rate Risk and Commodity Trade Between the U.S. and India

Floating exchange rates are said to introduce volatility into the foreign exchange market that could deter trade flows. Previous research employed aggregate import and export trade data and provided mixed results. In this paper we disaggregate the trade data between the U.S. and the emerging economy of India and use the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling to show that in 40 industries that trade between the two countries, exchange rate volatility has negative and positive effects in 40% of industries, in the short run. These short-run effects, however, do not last into the long run in many cases.

评美国贸易代表对人民币汇率调查申请的拒绝

人民币汇率问题已经成为当前中美贸易中的一个非常突出的问题。美国国内,尤其是美国国会内的一些人,经常拿这一问题来说事。近几年来,他们多次以中国操纵货币、中国汇率制度违反1974年美国贸易法301条款为由,向美国贸易代表提出调查申请,但均遭到拒绝。本文以WTO规则为依据,分析301条款的性质、地位和作用,结合中美贸易的实践,特别是近几年来有关301条款的人民币汇率特定争端案件的具体内容,分析了美国贸易代表驳回调查申请的表面理由和内在原因,并提出了应对301条款的一些观点和建议。     

Does Real Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Sectoral Trade Flows?

This article investigates empirically the effect of real exchange rate volatility on sectoral bilateral trade flows between the United States and its top 13 trading partners. Our investigation also considers those effects on trade flows that may arise through changes in income volatility and the interaction between income and exchange rate volatilities. We provide evidence that (i) exchange rate volatility does not systematically affect sectoral trade flows, (ii) income volatility has little impact on trade flows, and (iii) the effect of the interaction term on trade flows is opposite that of exchange rate volatility, dampening its impact on trade flows.     

Exchange Rate Regime,Real Exchange Rate,Trade Flows and Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Morocco

Abstract: We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the dirham against the European currencies (the EU15), over the period 1960–2000 (annual data). We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium REER (the NATREX model). We show that a rise in the volatility of the dirham reduces the trade flows (exports and imports). The misalignments also affect the trade flows: an overvaluation leads to a reduction in Morocco exports, to an increase in Morocco imports, and globally to a deterioration of the trade balance with the European Union. On the other hand, neither the volatility nor the misalignments have an effect on foreign direct investment in favor of Morocco.     

Trade Openness and Vertical Integration: Evidence from the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

The present article aims to empirically examine a relationship between trade openness and the pattern of vertical integration using the six‐digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) of U.S. manufacturing data from 2002 to 2006. We use the index of vertical integration made out of inter‐plant transfers data by the U.S. Census Bureau, and we consider three proxies of trade openness—import penetration, export shares, and trade penetration. The empirical results substantiate 2000 theoretical proposition that trade openness undermines motives for vertical integration.     

人民币汇率对中美双边贸易的影响——基于多边汇率与双边汇率的研究

本文运用协整向量自回归模型(cointegrating VAR)、误差修正模型(VEC)和方差分解等计量方法,研究人民币对美元双边实际汇率、人民币多边汇率变化与中美双边进、出口及贸易差额的关系,并在模型中引入供给弹性和政策变量以提高检验的准确性。研究结果表明:人民币汇率是影响中美双边贸易的重要因素,人民币汇率升值可以改善中美双边贸易不平衡,其效应在短期内即可显现,但对双边进、出口的影响则取决于人民币对美元双边实际汇率变化与多边汇率变化的综合比较,两国经济增长均将扩大我国对美出口和美、中贸易逆差,而贸易政策对双边贸易的影响也不可忽视。     

汇率制度改革以来实际汇率升值对中美贸易影响的实证研究

人民币汇改是一次制度性的变革,在作实证分析时,不能用跨不同制度的数据来解释汇改后的汇率波动对贸易的影响。因此,本文采用人民币汇率制度改革以来的月度数据和Johansen协整检验等计量分析方法,分别对人民币实际汇率如何影响中国对美出口和进口作了实证分析。通过分析发现,人民币实际汇率升值对改善中美贸易收支平衡状况存在显著影响。     

The Effect of Exchange Rate on Bilateral Trade Balance: New Evidence from Malaysia and Thailand

This paper attempts to identify the major economic factors that influence the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia and Thailand with the US and Japan. To this end, an unrestricted VAR model was estimated using quarterly frequency data from 1980: I to 1996: IV. The Johansen results indicate a stable long-run relation between trade and three macro variables: exchange rate, domestic income and foreign income. The main findings of this paper are: (i) the real effective exchange rate is an important variable in the trade balance equation and devaluation improves the trade balances of both economies in the long-run; (ii) the other important variables that determine trade balance include domestic and foreign incomes; (iii) the results indicate no J-curve effect and causal run from exchange rate to trade balance, (iv) the real effects of devaluation are distributed over a period of eight to nine quarters.     

中美贸易对美国就业影响研究——基于美国制造业面板数据的分析

本文通过建立国际贸易对就业影响的理论模型,利用美国制造业面板数据分析中美贸易对美国就业的影响问题。实证结论表明,美国进口中国制成品对美国就业没有显著影响,也不是美国失业的Granger原因;美国制成品出口对增加美国就业虽有显著影响,但作用不大;影响美国国内就业的主要因素是实际工资、企业发展状况等实际因素。这些结论充分说明,美国的失业问题不是由美国进口中国制成品引起的,美国减少中国制成品进口也解决不了美国的失业问题。     

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Provincial Data

Using data for the period 2000–2011, we construct province‐level real effective exchange rate (REER) indices for China and test the effect of REER depreciation on regional economic growth in a generalized method of moments regression framework. Our results show that REER depreciation, in general, promotes regional economic growth, through increasing net exports and lowering FDI costs. After dividing the full sample into coastal and inland subsamples, we find that REER depreciation influences economic growth in inland areas but not in coastal areas. This is due to the fact that the inland areas have more surplus labor or other resources to expand their production capacity when REER depreciation leads to increased world demand. Furthermore, compared to inland areas, processing‐and‐assembly trade comprises a larger share of trade in the coastal areas, where traders import more raw materials and intermediate goods to process and assemble goods. When the exchange rate depreciates, the costs of imported materials and immediate goods increase. In this case, the benefits from REER depreciation in coastal areas are offset to some extent and are thus lower than in inland areas.     

中国贸易收支对汇率波动的敏感性分析——基于不同贸易模式的比较研究

本文在理论分析基础之上,通过构建计量模型,利用1994~2009年的季度数据,从实证角度比较分析了不同贸易模式下中国贸易收支对汇率波动敏感性的差异性,结果表明,其敏感性在产品内贸易模式下较之传统产业间和产业内贸易模式下更低。由于中国持续性贸易顺差正是中国融入产品内国际分工体系所致,所以人民币升值并不是解决中国贸易顺差的合理之道。本文研究同时发现,人民币汇率波动对内资企业冲击较之外资企业更大。据此本文认为,尽可能维持人民币汇率稳定,通过攀升产品内分工高端价值链、优化贸易结构、鼓励企业"走出去"等,对于缓解中国贸易顺差更为可行。     

美国制造业就业的影响因素研究——基于人民币实际汇率与美国国内因素的比较分析

本文通过构建劳动力需求和供给模型,考察了影响美国制造业就业的主要因素,并基于最优消费决策条件的经验数据测量模型(K-R),重点研究了人民币实际汇率变动对美国制造业就业的影响;然后通过实证研究全面分析了1981～2011年度人民币实际汇率和美国国内因素对美国制造业就业的影响。研究结果表明:无论短期还是长期,美国制造业技术进步率上升和人均资本存量增加均能够显著拉动制造业就业增长;从长期来看,人民币实际汇率贬值和美国实际利率下降能够在一定程度上促进制造业就业增加;但从短期来看,美国制造业实际工资率上升对制造业就业的正向影响更加显著。     

Trade,Geography, and Industry Growth in U.S. Manufacturing

Much of the recent empirical literature examining the New Economic Geography has focused on how access to markets impacts wages. In this article, we consider an alternative aspect of the theory by examining how access to markets affects industry growth. We develop a model relating the growth of two key measures of market size—market access and supplier access—to growth in industry employment and the real value of industry shipments. We estimate the model using data on U.S. manufacturing industries between 1984 and 1996. We find strong evidence to suggest that access to markets positively affects industry growth.     

汇率波动、汇率传递与贸易条件

本币升值一定会改善贸易条件吗?文章基于汇率传递的视角,构建汇率波动与贸易条件的理论模型,从理论上论证了本币升值改善贸易条件的机制和条件;并运用MS-VAR模型对中国2005年1月至2014年11月的月度数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,在不同区制下人民币实际有效汇率指数波动对贸易条件影响的方向和大小呈现明显的非对称性。进一步的非线性Granger因果关系检验发现,仅存在由人民币实际有效汇率指数到贸易条件的单向因果关系。