Reconsidering Consumption Risk Sharing among OECD Countries: Some Evidence Based on Panel Cointegration

In this paper we provide a characterization of international consumption risk sharing among a sample of OECD countries based on panel cointegration and error-correction techniques. Our results indicate that around 30% of idiosyncratic consumption risks are shared in the short run. In the long run, however, only about 10% of idiosyncratic consumption risks are shared internationally. In addition, we find that countries characterized by relatively high foreign asset and liability positions are less exposed to shocks. Moreover, the time it takes until idiosyncratic shocks exert their full impact on consumption crucially depends on the foreign asset and liability position.

休闲时间与经济效率——来自OECD国家的证据

本文认为在考察经济增长的过程中，除了需要关注人均变量，更需要关注“时人均”变量，因为后者代表单位时间内的人均变量，可用来衡量经济效率，而经济效率是经济增长潜力的源泉。为此，本文将工作时间、受教育时间和休闲时间引入内生增长模型，并突出考虑了休闲对经济个体效率的积极作用以及休闲对技术水平的外部效应，由此刻画了休闲与经济效率之间的非线性关系。随后，在模型结论的框架下，引用21个0ECD成员国近二十多年来的面板数据研究了上述非线性关系，并具体求解到经济体的最优休闲时间。由此说明，可以通过对休闲时间的合理调整与管理来达成最理想的经济效率。     

Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries

In an extended Balassa–Samuelson model, long-run real exchange rates are determined by relative productivity and terms of trade. We present evidence of systematic long-run relationships between these fundamental variables and real exchange rates in a data set covering 15 OECD countries from 1960 to 1996. High relative productivity is associated with real exchange rate appreciations in most cases. There is less support for the hypothesis that the terms of trade affect equilibrium real exchange rates.     

全球化与经济周期同步性——以中国和OECD国家为例

本文利用新方法测度经济周期同步性,构建1984～2007年面板数据研究中国与OECD国家的经济周期同步性及其传导机制。研究发现,中国同OECD国家的经济周期同步性与传统理论存在一定差异,双边贸易强度、金融与投资开放度、产业结构的相似程度都将显著地增加中国同OECD国家的经济周期同步性。     

Regulation,Institutions and Aggregate Investment: New Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper investigate the relationship linking investment (capital stock) and structural policies. Using a panel of 32 OECD countries from 1985 to 2013, we show that more stringent product and labour market regulations are associated with less investment (lower capital stock). The paper also sheds light on the existence of non-linear effects of employment protection legislation (EPL) on the capital stock. Several alternative testing methods show that the negative influence of EPL is considerably stronger at higher levels. Finally, and importantly, the paper uncovers important policy interactions between product and labour market policies. Higher levels of product market regulations (covering state control, barriers to entrepreneurship and barriers to trade and investment) tend to amplify the negative relationships between EPL and the capital stock and ETCR and the capital stock. Equally important is the finding that the rule of law and the quality of (legal) institutions alters the overall impact of regulations on capital deepening: better institutions reduce the negative effect of more stringent product and labour market regulations on the capital stock, possibly through the reduction of uncertainty as regards the protection of property rights. This result also implies that the benefit from product and labour market reforms may be smaller in countries with weaker institutions.     

Trade and International R&D Spillovers among OECD Countries

This paper examines the relationship between trade patterns and international research-and-development (R&D) spillovers using Kao and Chiang's (1998) and Kao's (1999) recently developed panel cointegration techniques. Monte Carlo-type tests demonstrate that the choice of weights used in constructing foreign R&D stocks is informative of the spillover transmission when panel cointegration techniques are employed. However, the evidence does not support a relationship between import patterns and R&D spillovers. The relationship between export patterns and R&D spillovers is then considered. Consistent with recent theoretical models (Ben-David and Loewy 1998), the evidence suggests that exporters receive substantial R&D spillovers from their customers.     

Growth, Technological Change, and ICT Diffusion: Recent Evidence from OECD Countries

In this paper we present an overview of GDP and productivitygrowth patterns in OECD countries over the past decade, on thebasis of harmonized data. Our evidence suggests that fast-growingcountries generally shared three characteristics: improvementsin labour utilization; a generalized enhancement in human capital;and rapid shifts in the composition of physical capital towardsinformation and communication technology (ICT) equipment. Particularly,we show that technological change embodied in new ICT capitalgoods has been a primary source of output and productivity growthin ICT-using sectors. The international comparison allows relatinggrowth patterns to institutional and policy indicators, therebyoffering some preliminary insights into the potential sourcesof growth disparities. Cross-country evidence yields some tentativesupport to the idea that institutional factors affecting competitionin the product market are likely to affect productivity patterns,especially in a period of rapid diffusion of a general-purposetechnology (such as ICT).     

New Evidence on Export Price Elasticity from China and Six OECD Countries

This paper provides new evidence on export price elasticities by analyzing the cases of China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and the USA over the period 1990–2012. Estimates have been made using panel data techniques for non‐stationary data. After demonstrating that long‐run relationships are stable to any structural break, it is found that exports are significantly determined by foreign demand, with long‐run income elasticity significantly higher than unity for China, Japan, Germany, the UK and the USA. Conversely, exports are price inelastic for most of the countries in the sample, in both the long run and the short run. The exception is France, whose export price elasticity is lower (higher) than unity in the short run (long run).     

Robots,Unions, and Aging: Determinants of Robot Adoption Evidence from OECD Countries

Atlantic Economic Journal -     

Structural Breaks and Spatial Linkages in FDI: Further Evidence in OECD Countries

This paper evaluates the knowledge–capital model (KCM) of foreign direct investment (FDI) as defined by Braconier et al. (Rev Int Econ 13(4):770-786, 2005). The model predicts that there are both horizontal and vertical motivations for engaging in FDI. The horizontal motives regard access to new markets in the case of trade frictions, whereas the vertical motivations imply that multinational enterprises seek to take advantage of relative skill differences in different countries. The impact of the vertical component in the KCM has been largely debated and thereby is of the greatest interest. Another issue addressed in the study is the relevance of spatial interdependencies in FDI flow. To check for these kinds of FDI determinants the KCM model is augmented with a surrounding market potential and a spatial lag term. By using large data sets for FDI stocks among OECD countries from 1982 to 2003 along with structural breaks and spatial econometric techniques, the paper evaluates the significance of traditional and spatial FDI determinants. The results show that the vertical component is indeed important, even for FDI among OECD countries, but that this importance is clearly decreasing over time. The findings point towards the existence of spatial linkages that are also compatible with export-platform motivations.     

Reforms,Exchange Rates and Monetary Commitment: A Panel Analysis for OECD Countries

The paper investigates the link between monetary policy and structural reforms in open economies. We test three hypotheses: (a) the Calmfors hypothesis that the degree of reforms is higher in the case of autonomous policy and lower in the case of commitment, (b) the TINA hypothesis which implies a positive impact of a monetary policy rule on the extent of reforms, and (c) a third factors hypothesis. In our empirical analysis on panel data of 23 OECD countries from 1980–2000 we find little evidence for the Calmfors hypothesis, but evidence in favor of the TINA argument for labor market and regulatory reform.

Risk Related Non Linearities in Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Panel of Central and Eastern European Countries

This paper investigates the recent evolution of five Eastern European exchange rates. Our aim is twofold: to provide an up-to-date view of the predictability and main relations of spot rates with economic fundamentals and to derive some considerations about exchange rate regimes, capital flows, and risk appetite. We propose a non-linear specification where the non-linearity refers to the effect of the interest rate differential. The paper supports the view that given the relevance of capital flows and their sensitivity to risk adjusted yield differentials, the choice of exchange rate regime should be a matter of careful strategy.     

Aid Effectiveness,Debt Relief and Public Finance Response: Evidence from a Panel of HIPC Countries

Substantial amounts of debt relief have been granted to a set of low-income countries, as an alternative aid modality. Although the theoretical case for debt relief is firmly established, only empirical analysis can show whether debt relief is indeed a (more) effective mode of aid delivery. We investigate the linkages between debt relief and other fiscal variables such as current expenditure, government investment, taxation and domestic borrowing, in comparison to the effects of grants and concessional loans. We find that the fiscal impact of HIPC debt relief follows fairly complex dynamics. For example, debt relief initially reduces government investment, but the effect becomes positive after two years, well outperforming other modes of aid delivery. JEL no. F34, F35, O11, O19     

International Financial Relations Under the Current Float: Evidence from Panel Data

This paper uses multi-country data for the period 1973–1994 to investigate five key equilibrium conditions in international finance—purchasing power parity, the Fisher equation, uncovered interest parity, and the equity-return analogues of the latter two. The results are largely consistent with theoretical expectations. Over the long run, purchasing power parity, uncovered interest parity and the Fisher effect prove to be rather good first approximations. The equity-return relations, though somewhat less so are nevertheless much better behaved than past studies would lead one to expect. Average rates of equity returns keep pace with inflation within countries in almost all instances; across countries, they are positively correlated with average rates of inflation. This is particularly the case when the data period is extended to include earlier decades.     

Exporting against Risk? Theory and Evidence from Public Export Insurance Schemes in OECD Countries

This paper endeavours to find out in how far public export insurance schemes foster international trade. Thereto, a gravity equation is derived, which accounts for the risk of financial losses in case firms contract defaulting foreign buyers. Empirical results suggest that OECD countries issuing trade credits with generous state-guarantees did not, during the 1999 to 2005 period, witness more exports towards politically and commercially more unstable low-income countries. Rather, publicly indemnified trade finance has promoted exports, to a modest degree, towards high and middle-income countries, where financial intermediaries and markets provide viable alternatives to hedge against payment risks.     

Electricity Generation and Economic Efficiency: Panel Data Evidence from World and East Asian Countries

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of electricity generation on countries’ economic efficiency. By using a sample of 42 World and East Asian countries for the time period 1996–2006 the paper employs Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) window analysis and econometric panel techniques. The results reveal that there is an inverted U-shape relationship between electricity generation and countries’ economic efficiency. Finally, the turning point for the European countries is much smaller compared to the one of East Asian countries indicating that the European countries shift in energy use from electricity to other sources of energy. In addition the electricity generation–economic efficiency relationship depends also on the structure of the economy.     

进口贸易、FDI与国际知识资本溢出——来自跨国面板数据的经验分析

在将知识资本划分为研发资本、人力资本和专利资本的基础上,文章使用1981~2010年的跨国面板数据,测算了115个经济体的国内知识资本指数以及通过进口和FDI渠道溢出的国外知识资本指数,并利用扩展的国际研发溢出回归框架实证分析了国内外知识资本投入对东道国全要素生产率的影响。结果发现,国内知识资本投入是全球技术进步的主要来源,FDI渠道是知识资本跨国溢出的主要渠道,进口渠道还未成为影响技术进步的重要因素;国内外知识资本对不同类型经济体全要素生产率的影响存在明显差异:进口溢出效应呈现发达经济体显著而转型和发展经济体不显著的特点,FDI溢出效应呈现发展经济体大于转型和发达经济体的特点,国内知识资本促进效果呈现转型经济体大于发达和发展经济体的特点。     

Tax Pot Episodes in OECD Countries

How to use an unexpected increase in tax revenues (tax pots) was an important issue in most OECD countries in the second half of the 1990s, the question being more precisely what to do with those windfall revenues: decrease taxes, reduce debt, increase expenditures? In this paper, we study such tax pot episodes in OECD countries over the past 40 years. To that end, we propose a definition of a fiscal pot episode. Once identification is complete, we examine the macroeconomic environment within in those episodes, the way this surplus of revenues has been used, and the degree of success in reducing public debt and in fostering growth. As in the fiscal adjustment literature, we then obtain relatively orthodox conclusions about the use of windfall tax revenues, as it is generally better for future growth and debt level to use the money to reduce expenditures and taxes. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 436–461. University of Toulouse (IDEI), Toulouse, France; and University of Toulouse (GREMAQ, LEERNA, and IDEI), Toulouse, France, Institut Universitaire de France, and CEPR. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E6, H6.     

私人消费、净产出与国际金融发展——基于“金砖国家”的实证比较分析

本文基于私人消费和净产出关系测度国际资本流动水平,采用混合OLS、Swamy随机系数模型和状态向量空间三种计量方法比较分析"金砖国家"国际资本流动水平和变化过程,进而评估各国国际金融的发展水平和系统稳健性。结果表明:"金砖国家"总体国际金融发展水平较低且各国之间存在较大差异性,其中印度一直保持对资本流动的严格管制,而南非对资本管制一直相对宽松。俄罗斯的资本流动水平最高,但其变化最为剧烈,中国和巴西的资本流动水平和变化程度则处于中间位置。各国应重新审视自身存在的问题,促进国际金融健康发展。