Multiparty Competition, Founding Elections and Political Business Cycles in Africa

Political business cycle (PBC) theory and empirics typicallyassume that elections are competitive. Yet, as empirical workon PBCs turns increasingly to developing countries for evidence,this assumption becomes untenable. We propose and test two empiricalhypotheses regarding PBCs: first, we should only see cycleswhen elections involve multiparty competition; secondly, weshould see larger cycles in ‘founding’ elections.Using a new indicator of multiparty competition and macroeconomicdata from Africa, we find strong support for our first hypothesisand moderate support for the second. These findings have implicationsfor democratic transitions and the compatibility of economicand political reform in nascent democracies.     

Endogenous Markups,Intensity of Competition,and Persistence of Business Cycles

In order to study the propagation mechanism of business cycles, in particular to investigate how the intensity of competition affects market structure and output persistence over business cycles, this paper presents a real business-cycle model with imperfect competition and increasing returns to scale. This analysis considers the markups of price over cost to be endogenous. With endogenous markups, two standard forms of oligopolistic competition—Bertrand and Cournot—are considered. Results show that: (1) the propagation mechanism in the sense of output persistence is greater under Cournot; (2) the propagation mechanism is unequivocally greater with imperfect competition, regardless of whether markups are endogenous or not; and (3) under imperfect competition, the propagation mechanism is greater with endogenous markups than with exogenous markups. Overall, these results suggest that more intense competition produces lower persistence in output growth and, thus, a weaker propagation mechanism. In a calibration exercise, these differences were also found to be quantitatively important.     

晋升激励、宏观调控与经济周期:一个政治经济学框架

本文在一个以控制权收益为基础的晋升激励框架下，考察中国经济周期的形成。本文研究发现，由于政府保持着经济的控制权，政府组织中晋升激励体制的周期性和中央政府的宏观调控共同构成了中国经济周期性波动的主要成因，中国的经济周期本质上是“晋升体制周期”和“宏观调控”结合的产物，这推翻了学界“宏观调控是经济周期的应对手段”的一贯认识。在此基础上，本文构建了一个理论模型用以刻画这一逻辑。进一步的经验实证支持了上述逻辑。本文的政策含义是，转变经济增长方式和进一步的产权改革以适度放松政府对经济的控制将有利于经济的良性发展。     

Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data

Using panel data for 94 countries in 1975–97, we estimate OLS, 2SLS and GMM regressions to explain IMF and IBRD lending as well as monetary and fiscal policies in the recipient countries. With respect to moral hazard, we find that a country's government budget deficit and its rate of monetary expansion are higher the larger its borrowing potential in the Fund. New net lending of the Bank (relative to GDP) raises monetary expansion but lowers budget deficits of the recipient countries while new net credit from the Fund is associated with less expansionary policies. As for political business cycles, our evidence indicates that new net credits from the IMF are significantly larger prior to elections and that borrowing from the IBRD is significantly smaller after elections.     

中日韩经济周期波动及其主要影响因素分析

本文对中日韩三国经济周期波动及其主要影响因素进行比较分析。研究结果表明,美国次贷危机以后中日韩经济周期波动都呈现出衰退的局面,而且经济周期转折点也基本一致,其协动性越来越强。在影响关系方面,日本和韩国的经济周期波动与通货膨胀是双向影响关系,而中国的经济周期波动仅单向影响通货膨胀;中国和韩国的经济周期波动与货币政策和财政政策是双向影响关系,而日本的货币政策和财政政策仅单向影响经济周期波动。在影响强度方面,中国的经济周期波动受到财政政策的影响相对最大,日本和韩国的经济周期波动则受到货币政策的影响相对最大。     

世界经济周期的贸易传导机制

贸易究竟如何影响经济波动在世界范围内的传递?对这一问题的回答,必须结合与贸易有关的其他经济变量加以研究。实证研究证实了“贸易发展与经济周期的协动性具有正向关系”的结论,并且更深入地指出影响协动性的关键是贸易强度,而非受贸易模式影响的产业结构和贸易结构。在理论上,学者们在基础模型的基础上不断地加入了一些新元素,如不可贸易品、南北贸易模式等,试图对贸易传导机制进行更详细的描述,并力图解决两国模型中产生的“数量异常”和“价格异常”。     

Bank Lending and Business Cycles: South African Evidence

Abstract: The paper provides empirical analysis on the linkage between the behavior of bank lending and business cycles in South Africa. Consistent with theory, overall evidence suggesting pro‐cyclicality of bank lending is uncovered both at macro and micro levels. At macro level, bank lending and lending rates have moved in tandem with business cycles. Real borrowing by government was counter‐cyclical to business cycles as would be expected if the role of government was to fine‐tune the economy during booms and recessions. At micro level, bank lending to households and firms was generally pro‐cyclical. Even the growth of provisioning by banks has been largely pro‐cyclical to business cycles, though exceptions were recorded. First, new mortgage lending exhibited counter‐cyclical behavior before 1993. We attributed this behavior to the political and economic climate prevailing then which created uncertainties that made ownership of property a good hedge against economic and political risks. Secondly, the growth of real credit for investment and of foreign trade finance does not appear to have been related to business cycles.     

Business Cycles and FDI: Evidence from German Sectoral Data

Globalization has affected business cycle developments in OECD countries and has increased activities of firms across national borders. This paper analyzes whether these two developments are linked. We use a new firm-level data set on the foreign activities of German firms to test whether foreign activities are affected by business cycle developments. We aggregate the data by the sector of the reporting firm, the sector of the foreign affiliate, and the host country. Data are annual and cover the period 1989–2002. We find that German outward FDI increases in response to positive cyclical developments abroad and in response to a real depreciation of the domestic currency. JEL no. E3, F23     

中美经济周期的同步性及其传导机制分析

理论和实证研究表明,某些国家经济周期在波动过程中存在同步性特征。通过考察中美两国经济增长率之间的相关系数可以看出,两国经济周期波动在某些历史时期具有较强的同步性。改革开放以来,中国参与经济全球化的程度日益提高,中国经济日益融入世界经济,这是中美两国经济周期同步性出现的根本原因和前提条件。格兰杰因果关系检验表明,中美两国贸易和直接投资联系是经济周期同步性出现的纽带和基本传导渠道。新形势下中美两国应当进一步强化双方的经贸交流和合作,真正发挥两国经济之间的相互带动作用,从而实现双方经济的共同繁荣。     

韩国经济周期的程式化事实

本文通过观察GDP的周期性成分和宏观经济变量的共同运动,发现了韩国经济中的特征性事实。本文用Hodrick$CPrescott滤波来提取序列的周期成分,通过预白噪声化程序进行稳健的测量,并且借助脉冲反应函数观测了GDP的冲击传导机制,从而得出结论:除了价格变量以外,所有变量的周期成分都是顺周期的和同周期的。工资滞后周期3个季度,M2较弱的顺周期而且领先周期。预白噪声化之后,大多数变量的交叉反应相关函数值降低,但是很少发生质的改变。投资变量最活跃而消费变量相对不太活跃。GDP冲击似乎首先影响总需求方;而供给方如就业、真实工资要几个季度之后才有反应。     

中国的经济周期:一个AD-AS模型的视角

这篇论文首次尝试用正式的分析框架,即联立VAR模型来研究中国的经 济周期。研究表明:(a)需求冲击是导致宏观经济波动的主要因素,而供给冲击在 一段时间后则显示出更大的重要性;(b)在第一个经济周期———1985-1990年中, 需求冲击的推动力量是消费和固定资产投资,但是,在第二个周期———1991-1996 年和1997年以后的通货紧缩时期中,推动力量则是固定资产投资和世界需求;(c) 宏观经济政策并没有在引发或阻碍周期性波动中发挥重要的作用。     

外部冲击下的中国与世界经济波动协同性研究

本文通过实证分析表明:在样本期内,中国与各国经济波动的相关系数随时间变动较大。进一步使用面板数据对经济协同性演变背后的动因进行了考察,结果表明:双边贸易程度和金融一体化程度对经济协同性的影响显著为正,而产业内贸易的影响为负;中国与各国之间的货币政策协调程度、财政政策协调程度以及汇率波动程度也对经济波动协同性有一定影响。     

Aid Volatility and Real Business Cycles in a Developing Open Economy

This article analyzes the impact of the unpredictability of foreign aid on macroeconomic fluctuations in the recipient country. I build a small open‐economy business cycle model that accounts for foreign aid shocks, with no preference shocks. The model is calibrated to reflect the structural empirical regularities of Cote d'Ivoire, a typical aid‐dependent developing country. The parameters of the exogenous shocks are estimated using Bayesian methods and time series data for Cote d'Ivoire. The model produces business cycle patterns that are consistent with the data and key stylized facts. Specifically, the excess volatility of consumption with respect to output is successfully replicated. The results suggest that the unpredictability of foreign aid contributes to explain the volatility of business cycles in the recipient economy and has negative welfare effects.     

Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?

This paper demonstrates that developing countries differ considerably from their developed counterparts when focus is on the nature and characteristics of short-run macroeconomic fluctuations. Cycles are generally shorter, and the stylized facts of business cycles across countries are more diverse than those of the rather uniform industrialized countries. Supply-side models are generally superior in explaining changes in output, but a “one-size fits all” approach in formulating policy is inappropriate. Our results also illustrate the critical importance of understanding business regularities as a stepping-stone in the process of designing appropriate stabilization policy and macroeconomic management in developing countries.     

Do Business Cycles Affect State Appropriations to Higher Education?

Spending on higher education constitutes an important and increasing portion of state government spending and a major source of operating funds at public institutions of higher education. Anecdotal evidence suggests that state appropriations are subject to cyclical variation. An analysis of state appropriations to higher education, enrollment in two- and four-year public colleges and universities, and state-specific measures of the business cycle for all 50 states over the period 1969-1994 shows that state appropriations to higher education are highly sensitive to changes in the business cycle. A 1% change in real per capita income was, on average, associated with a 1.39% change in real state appropriations per full-time equivalent student enrolled. This implied decline in state government funding, coupled with the increase in enrollment in higher education during recessions reported by Betts and McFarland (1995), suggest that public institutions of higher education may experience fiscal stress during economic downturns. These results also suggest that state legislators and education policymakers should reconsider their higher education funding policies during recessions in order to allow public colleges and universities to provide dislocated workers with access to quality education and training during these periods.     

Reexamination of Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy

Standard dynamic small open economy models have predicted a counterfactual perfectly positive correlation between output and hours worked over the business cycle. In addition, this class of models exhibits a weak internal propagation mechanism. To address these anomalies, this paper incorporates intertemporally non‐separable labor supply and variable capital utilization into the canonical Mendoza (1991) model with adjustment costs of net investment. Our analysis shows that a dynamic, technology shock–driven small open economy model with internal habit formation in labor hours and endogenous capital utilization is able to account for the main real business cycle regularities of Canada after 1981.     

我国货币政策周期与经济周期之间的关联性研究

改革开放以来,我国的货币政策出现了多次紧缩和扩张之间的交替,形成了显著的货币政策周期。下行经济周期往往都是发生在货币紧缩政策结束之后。为了度量货币政策作用效果,我们需要建立货币政策周期与经济周期之间的内在关联机制,并从众多的反映宏观经济状态的指标从中选取合适的预测指标来反映其内在机制。通过实证检验发现,我国自1996年以来共出现了3次产出增长率的下降,而这3次产出降低都发生在紧缩性货币政策结束之后。这说明我国货币政策周期与经济周期之间存在密切关联,货币政策操作也存在相机选择的内生属性,并且M1同比增速和金融机构新增短期贷款能够更准确地预测在紧缩性货币政策实施之后是否会出现下行经济周期。     

美国经济周期“大缓和”研究的反思

次债危机之前关于美国经济周期"大缓和"(Great Moderation)的讨论曾经是宏观经济学界的一个热点,本文在危机过后对"大缓和"涉及的各种假说进行跟踪研究。研究发现,在美国新一轮经济周期中冲击的传导机制大大增强了,过去受到肯定的因素如产业结构演化、库存管理改善等对弱化宏观经济波动仍然发挥了一定作用,次债危机使得各界对金融创新的"双刃剑"作用有了更深刻的认识。