Demographic consequences of maternal-leave programs in industrial countries: evidence from fixed-effects models

The authors measure the effects of paid maternity leave upon infant mortality, the labor force participation of women during their prime childbearing years, and fertility rates. To reach their conclusions, they constructed a simultaneous-equations model using the individual fixed-effects method and a data set comprising 17 OECD countries and four time periods. The extension of maternal leave programs, measured in terms of duration of paid leave, is shown to reduce infant mortality, to raise rates of labor force participation for women in the prime childbearing ages, and to increase birth rates. The direct plus indirect impacts of extending maternity leave programs, as revealed by the reduced-form parameters of the authors' models, however, produce a different picture. The total impacts upon both infant mortality and female labor force participation conform closely to the structural estimates, but the impact upon birth rates almost disappears. It seems that the indirect effects of the maternal leave variable, via infant mortality and women's labor force participation, offset the directly pronatal influence. From a policy perspective, the benefits of paid maternal leave programs would seem to be unconditionally positive with respect to lowering infant mortality, and also positive with respect to raising female labor force participation. One should not, however, expect higher birth rates from such programs. The findings also suggest that maternal leave programs can facilitate some increases in women's labor force participation without incurring the reductions in fertility which would otherwise be experienced.     

Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001: Empirical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis*

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in Taiwan over the period 1966–2001. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in Taiwan's fertility model are real income, infant mortality rate, female education and female labor force participation rate. The test for cointegration is based on the recently developed bounds testing procedure while the long‐run and short‐run elasticities are based on the autoregressive distributed lag model. Among our key results, female education and female labor force participation rate are found to be the key determinants of fertility in Taiwan in the long run. The variance decom‐position analysis indicates that in the long run approximately 45percent of the variation in fertility is explained by the combined impact of female labor force participation, mortality and income, implying that socioeconomic development played an important role in the fertility transition in Taiwan. This result is consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis.     

Cointegration and causality between fertility and female labor participation in Taiwan: A multivariate approach

Applying Hsiao's version of Granger causality, this paper uncovers no causality from fertility to female labor participation and fails to find the expected relationship that female labor participation negatively predicts fertility in Taiwan. This indicates that working women in Taiwan do not necessarily have fewer children. The finding of this study contradicts the results obtained when using the conventional regression method which finds bidirectional relationship between fertility and female labor participation. In addition, this study detects that education exerts a great influence on female labor participation but not on fertility.     

Fertility Effects of Labor Market Conditions at Graduation

This study examines how individuals' fertility outcomes were affected by the labor market conditions they experienced at graduation. Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey, it finds that poor labor market conditions at graduation delayed individuals' entry into parenthood. Higher unemployment rates at graduation reduced the probability of having at least one child in the survey year for both men and women. The negative fertility effects generally followed a U-shape, reached the maximum around average childbearing ages, and faded out within 15 years after graduation. Low-skilled workers mainly contribute to the negative fertility effects observed in the whole sample. Employment and marital outcomes are also analyzed as potential mechanisms. Estimation results indicate that individuals who experienced poor labor market conditions at graduation delayed marriage and the birth of the first child due to a lower probability of being employed, reduced working hours, and adverse income shocks. The negative long-term fertility effects should be brought to policymakers' attention, especially when China's low fertility issue worsens. Policymakers are expected to create more favorable employment conditions for labor market entrants to encourage fertility and expand the future working-age population.     

Determinants of fertility in developing countries

The contribution of agricultural modernization to changes in fertility in developing countries was examined. A model for the determinants of both fertility and infant mortality--hypothesized to be positively related--was specified and applied to cross-sectional data for 75 developing countries for the year 1971. The infant mortality rate, productivity per unit of labor and land, and density of population for agricultural land were highly correlated with the crude birth rate. The only other exogenous variables highly correlated with each other were productivity per unit of labor and infant mortality, and productivity per unit of land and population density for agricultural areas. The coefficient of population density of agricultural areas suggested a negative impact of density on fertility. The infant mortality rate, productivity per unit of land and labor, and density of population of agricultural areas explained 85% of the intercountry variation in fertility. The infant mortality rate, productivity of land, and productivity of labor were of descending order of importance in determining the crude birth rates in the countries analyzed. 68% of the intercountry variation in infant mortality was explained by fertility, adult literacy, per capita energy consumption, gini-coefficient of income distribution, population per hospital bed, and protein supply. Adult literacy, crude birth rates, population per hospital bed, per capita energy consumption, per capita protein supply, and gini-coefficient of income distribution were of descending order of importance in determining infant mortality rates. All of the variables that affected infant mortality directly affected fertility indirectly; conversely, all the variables that affected fertility directly affected infant mortality indirectly. Overall, these results confirm that agricultural modernization does exert an effect on fertility. The task in developing countries is to break the vicious cycle of infant mortality and fertility. This can be achieved both through family planning programs and the diffusion of health programs to lower infant mortality.     

A simultaneous-equation model of labor supply,fertility and earnings of married women: the case of registered nurses

A simultaneous-equation model of labor supply, fertility, and earnings is developed and estimated for an important subset of the female population, married registered nurses (RNs). Measures of variables specific to married nurses age 21-64 are developed by aggregating observations on individual nurses or their families into Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) averages, from the 1-in-100 Public Use Sample of the 1970 Census of Population in the U.S. The sample was restricted in certain ways: the grouped observations apply only to white RNs who are married with husband present and live in SMSAs of over 250,000 population in 1970 (except Honolulu). The sample is further restricted so that each included observation (representing an SMSA average) is based upon an underlying pool of at least 15 individual nurses. This last restriction reduces the sample of SMSAs to 88 from 124. The coefficient on the nurse wage variable is positive and statistically significant with an implied wage elasticity of .40 at the means. These estimates are consistent with those observed using the analogous microcensus data on RNs. RN fertility has the predicted negative effect on nurse labor supply but is statistically insignificant, but the magnitude of the fertility coefficient is plausible. A 10% increase in nurse fertility within an SMSA (number of children ever born/1000 nurses ever married within an SMSA) is associated with a reduction in the SMSA nurse labor supply. The estimated coefficients of the husband-earnings and nonlabor-income variables are negative but only the former is statistically significant at the 90% level or above. The estimated effect of the nurse's earnings opportunities on her fertility are statistically insignificant, but the wage coefficient is negative as expected and implies an elasticity of nurse fertility with respect to the nurse wage rate of approximately -.2. The coefficient on the labor supply variable is negative and statistically significant, confirming the hypothesis that increased labor market activity increases the opportunity costs of children. Husband's earnings are not a significant determinant of RN fertility. The estimates suggest that nurse labor supply and fertility decisions are relatively unimportant factors in determining the nurse's market earnings.     

Four themes in fertility research

This study is concerned with four main themes that have been combined to describe U.S. fertility trends since 1920. These themes are identified as a time adjustment mechanism, income, the wife's labor force activities, and some intergenerational factor. "In order to obtain an unambiguous picture each theme will be represented by only one variable. After selecting the variables and estimating a model, an examination of the changing role these variables have had in explaining changes in fertility (the total fertility rate) throughout much of this century will be made. Finally, the implications these themes have for future fertility will be examined." The authors conclude that "in interpreting historical U.S. fertility rates, the results seem to indicate that much of the early decline in U.S. fertility was due to falling infant mortality. After the Second World War, fertility rose sharply as the age-structure variable declined and income rose. Eventually both women's labor force participation rates and the age-structure variable rose and, consequently, fertility fell." They also suggest that the age structure variable may cause a temporary upward swing in fertility in the near future.     

Unemployment and labor force participation in urban China

This paper serves to document and analyze the employment and the labor market changes in urban China since the late 1980s. High and sustained GDP growth rates in China have paradoxically been accompanied by increasing unemployment rates and decreasing labor force participation rates. Using national representative micro data, estimations from logit models show that age, education, communist-party membership and marital status are significantly associated with participation in the labor force and employment opportunities, and the impacts of education and party membership have increased over time. An extension of the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition finds little of the observed male–female differentials attributable to differences in characteristics such as age or education but to coefficient effects, a possible reflection of discrimination.     

Fertility Change in Asia and Africa

There have been profound changes in fertility rates in Asia and Africa in the past two to three decades. The availability of new data allows a closer examination of fertility trends and underlying causes than has hitherto been possible. This collection brings together evidence on fertility decline in India, China, and a number of African countries. The papers examine the role of different explanatory factors in lowering fertility, including female education, declines in child mortality, urbanization, and the spread of mass media and “modern” consumer culture. The relative importance of female education as an explanatory factor vis-à-vis other factors is examined, with specific reference to India. The papers also explore the impact of the decline in birth rates for ageing and social security reform as well as health policy.     

Fertility and maternal labor supply in Japan: Conflicting policy goals?

Using panel data on Japanese mothers, this paper estimates the impact of fertility on maternal labor supply using twins as an instrument for the total number of children. We find that having twins actually has a longer term positive impact on maternal labor force participation in Japan. To understand this result, we present evidence that the effects of age and cost of children can generate this finding, are particularly salient in Japan and differ in important ways between twins and non-twin families of the same size. Implications for fertility and labor supply policy in Japan are discussed.     

Long-term effects of labor market conditions on family formation for Japanese youth

This study aims to examine how each cohort’s family formation is affected by labor market conditions experienced in youth in Japan. Although the deterioration in youth employment opportunities has often been blamed for Japan’s declining fertility rate, the effect of slack labor market conditions on fertility is theoretically unclear. We estimate the effects of regional labor market conditions at entry to the labor market and contemporaneous conditions on fertility, controlling for nation-wide year effects and prefecture fixed effects, and find the following. First, high school-educated women who experienced a recession while entering the labor market are less likely to have children. In contrast, a recession rather increases fertility among college-educated women. When summed up, the aggregate impact of labor market conditions experienced in youth on fertility is weak. Second, the unemployment rate at entry to the labor market is positively correlated with the probability of having two or more children conditionally on having at least one child. Third, the contemporaneous unemployment rate is negatively correlated with marriage of women in the local labor market, although the correlation is weak and concentrated on the less educated group.     

Dynamic Analysis of Income and Independence Effect of African American Female Labor Force Participation on Divorce

Despite a continuous increase in dissolution of marriages among African American females over time, no researchers have documented and published dynamic linkages among factors that cause African American family disruption. Using a contemporary time-series methodology, the study explores the dynamic impacts of African American female labor force participation rates (LFPR), incomes, and birth rates on divorce rates or vice versa. The study found that African American female divorce rates increase permanently as labor force participation rates increase, documenting a dominant independence effect of African American LFPR on divorce rates. The study also found that as more African American females participate in the labor market, birth rates decline over times.      

Labor force competition and the black-white wage gap

Have the increasing numbers of women and immigrants in the U.S. labor force adversely affected the relative earnings of black men? A recent article in this journal argued that they have, based on empirical analysis of 1970 census data. The present study begins with a critique of both the theoretical assumptions and the empirical methods of this earlier article. A regression analysis of 1980 census data is then undertaken, which indicates that recent immigration has not had a negative impact on the relative wages of central-city black men. The findings also suggest that while higher rates of female labor force participation are statistically associated with lower black-white wage ratios, this effect is limited to teenagers.     

Gender and labor retrenchment in Chinese state owned enterprises: Investigation using firm-level panel data

In the late 1990s, China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) underwent dramatic labor retrenchment, drawing considerable attention to how women fared relative to men during the retrenchment process. However, almost all the existing studies on the subject rely on individual-level data. In this paper, we study the gender patterns of SOE labor retrenchment using a unique enterprise-level dataset for the period from 1995 to 2001. We find that disproportionately large share of discharge was borne by female workers and that female discharge rates were more sensitive to output growth than male discharge rates. Further, estimating dynamic labor demand equations by gender, we find that female employment was more sensitive to negative output shocks experienced by enterprises than male employment but less sensitive to positive output shocks. Further, we find that sensitivity of female employment to output was greater for reformed than non-reformed enterprises and for male-intensive than female-intensive sectors. These results provide new insights into the gender patterns of employment adjustment of Chinese SOEs to output shocks during the retrenchment period.     

Fertility and old-age labor supply in aging China

This paper studies the fertility and old-age labor supply decisions of Chinese households along with the relaxation of fertility control and a rise in life expectancy. We first build an overlapping-generations model, where agents make endogenous fertility and old-age labor supply decisions in the presence of fertility constraint. In our model, children serve as an alternative saving technology since they provide intra-family transfer for their old-age parents. Our analytical results suggest that the impact of rising life expectancy on fertility depends on whether children are more like consumption goods or saving vehicles. Relaxing fertility control would induce more leisure in the old age, while a rise in life expectancy would lead to more old-age labor supply. We then calibrate the model to Chinese economy and find that a rise in life expectancy would discourage fertility as intra-family transfer becomes less important. In addition, the implementation of two-children policy rather than full relaxation of fertility control, a rise in child-rearing cost, and an expansion of social security would also reduce fertility, partly offsetting the effects of relaxing one-child policy.     

A dilemma of fertility and female labor supply: Identification using Taiwanese twins

Using micro-data from the Taiwan Population and Housing Census, this study estimates the causal effect of fertility on the labor supply of married women. To address the endogeneity of fertility, we exploit exogenous variations in the number of children caused by twin births, which can be considered a natural experiment. The instrumental variable estimates indicate that an additional child reduces female employment by 10.5 percentage points for those who have at least one delivery, and the effects gradually decline for females who have two or more deliveries, with the effects vanishing when females have three or more deliveries. Also, the effect of fertility varies substantially with the time elapsed since the last childbirth, which has a consequence for differences in estimates across different samples in the literature.     

基于扎根理论的员工劳动关系满意度研究

劳动关系满意度是和谐劳动关系理念下的重要本土化概念,国内学者在其维度结构上进行了初步探索,但研究结果却大相径庭。基于扎根理论质性研究方法对工会企业员工劳动关系满意度的构成维度进行重新梳理,并采用形成性模型的构建方法,开发了劳动关系满意度测量工具。研究结果表明：劳动关系满意度由员工关怀、员工参与、劳动争议管理、劳动条件与保障、劳动报酬、劳动负荷和员工成长7个维度构成,共36个题项,该量表具有较好的效度。研究结论为企业内部的劳动关系管理实践提供了有益启示。     

Child Labor and the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children

This article analyzes the impacts of child labor on the interaction between the quantity and quality of children in the spirit of Becker and Lewis. It shows that, without child labor, the quantity of children can be a normal good so that it increases with parental income under some fairly standard formulations. However, the correlation between fertility and parental income becomes negative when the role of child labor is considered. The model also implies that fertility increases with the wage rate of child labor. Moreover, it suggests that government intervention not only directly affects the supply of child labor but also influences parents' decisions on fertility, which indirectly determines children's labor market participations.     

后危机时代我国企业劳动关系的变化及其应对策略

劳动关系的演变总是随着经济发展的变化而变化,后危机时代的特殊性使这一时期的劳动关系在劳动力市场力量、劳动契约和中小企业劳动关系风险等方面表现出新的特征变化。文章认为,应通过多渠道开发企业人力资本、＂内外兼修＂降低中小企业劳动关系风险和完善＂三方四主体＂的劳动关系协调机制等举措解决劳动关系变化带来的新问题。     

“三方协调”机制:民营企业和谐劳动关系的框架构建

正确处理劳动关系,是构建"和谐社会"的重要内容。调整好民营企业劳动关系,妥善处理好这些问题和矛盾,在民营企业内部建立合作、共赢的劳动关系,成为理论界、企业界和政府关注的焦点。本文从民营企业劳动关系存在的问题出发,对劳动关系的运作机制进行分析,提出了构建民营企业和谐劳动关系的对策,即建立起包括政府、企业主组织、工会在内的"三方协调"机制。