Does Aid Unpredictability Weaken Governance? Evidence from Developing Countries

This paper examines the effects of aid on governance from a different perspective by asserting that aid unpredictability can potentially increase corruption in recipient countries by providing incentives to risk‐averse and corrupt political leaders to engage in rent‐seeking activities. Analyses of data from 80 developing countries over the period 1984–2004 offer evidence that higher aid unpredictability is associated with more corruption as measured by a synthetic index. We also find further evidence that this latter impact is more severe in countries with weak initial institutional conditions. These findings are a supplementary advocacy for the need for better management and better predictability of aid flow in developing countries.     

Empirical regularities in black markets for currency

This paper develops a model of the black or parallel market foreign exchange rate. This rate is seen to depend upon the level of the official rate, the (unobserved) equilibrium rate, the premium offered for exchange sold through the black market, and government reserve-level policies. The model is then empirically estimated for 10 countries over a period from 1957 through 1983. The results generally support the model specified by theory. Additionally, the paper provides weak-form tests concerning the efficiency of the black market. The results cannot reject the hypothesis that the current black market rate incorporates all relevant historical price information.     

三亚入境旅游需求影响因素研究——以韩国客源市场为例

利用三亚主要客源国之一韩国2005-2013年数据,在实证分析的基础上,确定了三亚入境旅游市场的主要影响因素。采用一阶差分线性回归模型分析了时间序列数据,证实了三亚韩国入境旅游市场需求的主要影响因素有人均GNP、人均GNI、相对CPI、汇率、重大事件和突发事件等虚拟变量,其中人均GNP、相对CPI成正向变动,人均GNI、汇率和虚拟变量成反向变动。最后,针对三亚入境旅游需求影响因素分析提出了拓展三亚入境旅游的市场策略。     

腐败控制、私人部门参与基础设施提供与反贫困效应——来自发展中国家的经验证据(1996-2014)

惩治腐败和消除贫困始终是广大发展中国家面临的重要任务。文章基于1996年到2014年138个发展中国家的数据，探索了腐败控制降低一国贫困率的新机制，即促进私人部门参与基础设施提供。我们发现：第一，腐败控制显著促进了私人部门参与基础设施提供；第二，私人部门参与基础设施提供显著降低了发展中国家的贫困率；第三，"中介效应"分析显示，腐败控制是通过促进私人部门参与基础设施提供进而降低一国贫困率的。文章的发现是对发展中国家腐败与贫困关系研究的一个有益补充，不但有助于理解私人部门参与基础设施提供的制度基础，也有助于发展中国家设计反贫困的公共政策。     

Fixed Exchange Rates and Disinflation in Emerging Markets: How Large Is the Effect?

We examine developing countries which have institutional quality ratings for the effects of exchange rate rigidity on inflation. The level of institutional development exerts no effect on the impact of currency regimes. However, the interaction of institutional quality and exchange rates has, in the most plausible specifications, a negative impact on inflation. This suggests that fixed exchange rates exert at most a contingent effect on inflation, and indicates that countries in Eastern Europe and Latin America contemplating currency pegs would be better off improving institutional quality prior to adopting the euro or dollar and expecting a large subsequent disinflationary effect. JEL no.  F31, O11     

Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open economy: A state space modelling approach

Do interest rate differentials smoothly mirror the changes in the exchange rate between a small open economy and a large emerging market economy? The literature provides conflicting views on the validity of the uncovered interest parity condition (UIP), including its size and factors influencing the risk premium. We examine the validity of the UIP condition between Nepal and India using time-series data covering the period 1989 – 2019. A state space modelling approach based on the Kalman filter analysis is applied to simulate the risk premium. We find that the UIP condition does not hold for the Nepalese Rupee. A time-varying persistent negative risk premium that dominantly explains interest rate differentials is, instead, found. These findings imply that Nepalese residents prefer to hold foreign assets and continually expect future devaluations of the domestic currency. These present obstacles to developing domestic financial markets and the implementation of a market oriented monetary policy.     

Private capital flows,stock market and economic growth in developed and developing countries: A comparative analysis

Empirically we investigate how three types of private capital flows could promote economic growth in recipient developed and developing countries. Our focus is on the role of stock markets as a channel through which foreign capital flows could promote growth. The findings reveal that FDI exhibits a positive impact on growth, while both foreign debt and portfolio investment have a negative impact on growth in all sample countries. However, our results indicate that stock markets might be a significant channel or leading institutional factor through which capital flows affect economic growth. The findings provide clear implications that the negative impact of private capital flows can be transformed into a positive one if the stock market development has attained a certain threshold level, regardless of whether it is in developed or developing countries.     

跨国公司制造业R&D投资国别选择的实证研究——以美国跨国公司为例

本文以美国跨国公司为例,对跨国公司制造业海外R&D投资国别选择的影响因子进行了实证研究。结果表明,从世界范围看,跨国公司在东道国的FDI和东道国市场规模是影响跨国公司R&D投资的主要因子;仅就发展中国家而言,东道国市场规模并不影响跨国公司R&D投资;跨国公司的产业类别不同,其R&D投资国别选择的影响因子亦有差异。     

Corruption and Entrepreneurship: Cross-Country Evidence from Formal and Informal Sectors

While the impact of institutional quality on formal entrepreneurial activity has been well documented in the literature, whether and to what extent corruption influences entrepreneurship in the informal sector is less forthcoming. In this article, we analyze the effect of corruption on entrepreneurship in the formal and informal sectors. Using unique cross-country data on formal and informal entrepreneurship, we find that corruption deters entrepreneurship in the formal sector and promotes informal entrepreneurship. These results remain robust even after conducting a series of sensitivity analyses.     

企业ESG实践的价值创造效应研究——基于外部压力视角的检验

提升企业价值是企业进行ESG实践的目标和根本动力。文章以2008—2019年沪深A股上市公司数据为研究样本,实证检验了ESG实践对企业价值的影响效应,并以市场竞争程度、机构投资者、媒体监督为切入点,分析外部压力对于企业ESG实践价值效应的调节作用。研究发现：ESG实践初期会降低企业价值,从长期来看,ESG实践对企业价值存在正向的滞后作用。当企业面临的外部压力越大时,市场竞争可以显著提升ESG实践的价值效应,机构投资者和媒体监督会削弱ESG实践对企业价值的影响。也进一步说明由于我国资本市场的特殊性,外部压力不能必然地转化为治理机制。     

Determinants of Trade Misinvoicing

Trade misinvoicing should be seen as an element of de facto capital account openness. Traditional explanations for trade misinvoicing??high custom duties and weak domestic economies??are less persuasive in a world of high growth emerging markets that have low trade barriers. We construct a 53-country data set over a 26?year span, covering both industrialized and developing countries, to study the phenomena of export and import misinvoicing. Capital account openness, differentials in interest rates, political stability, corruption, indebtedness and the exchange rate regime are identified as factors related to misinvoicing.     

Corruption and Technological Progress: A Takeoff Theory of Good Governance

Corruption is known to be a function of its return relative to productive activity. But the idea that corruption might itself respond to technological progress has not been emphasized. This paper presents an approach for thinking about institutional features that lower corruption by lowering its relative return. Policies that promote productivity growth in market exchange may cause the relative reward to rent-seeking to decline. The evolutionary development of anti-corruption efforts may be a normal part of modernization, much as changes in income distribution and urbanization.     

Do Real Exchange Rates Follow a Nonlinear Mean Reverting Process in Developing Countries?

In an effort to fight relatively high inflation, many developing countries try to manage their nominal exchange rates through official intervention. In addition, developing countries tend to have high transportation costs, tariffs, and nontariff barriers. These factors are among the sources of generating nonlinearity in real exchange rates and hence some nonlinear adjustment toward purchasing power parity (PPP) in developing countries. In this paper, we employ monthly real effective exchange rate (REER) data of 88 developing countries and test the null of nonstationarity versus an alternative of linear stationarity by the means of a conventional unit root test and compare the results with those obtained from a new test in which the null is the same but the alternative hypothesis is nonlinear stationarity. The latter test supports the PPP theory in more developing countries compared with the former test, suggesting that nonlinear adjustment toward PPP in developing countries is an important phenomenon. Reported country characterizations indicate that reversion in REER occurs more often for high-inflation countries and for countries with high flexibility in their exchange rates.     

Impact of international development aid on FDI along the Belt and Road

Both IDA and FDI are very important external financing channels for B&R countries. Considering B&R countries as the sample, this paper analyzes the impact of the IDA received by B&R countries on their FDI from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Based on the different research objectives and data availability, the empirical analysis is considered as two sections. In the time series analysis, we use VECM model and the impulse response function to test the dynamic effects of different types of IDA on the FDI from the perspective of donor countries, and find that whether in the short, medium or long term, the complementary factor form of the aid to the recipient countries can promote FDI, and the material capital form of the aid to the recipient countries can crowd out their FDI. In the panel regression analysis, we examine the overall impact of the total amount of IDA accepted by the B&R recipient countries on FDI, including the direct impact of IDA on FDI and the moderating effects of institutional environment. Considering the direct impact, the results of the fixed effect regression analysis confirm the significantly negative effects of total IDA accepted by B&R recipient countries on their FDI. In the regression analysis of controlling endogeneity problem, the product terms of IDA variables and institutional environment variables are added to the regression models, and the results show that the institutional environment has significantly positive moderating effects in the process of IDA influencing FDI, indicating that the interaction between IDA and institutional environment helps to improve the impact of IDA on FDI and increase the attractiveness of recipient countries to FDI.     

Exchange rate regimes and real exchange rate volatility: Does inflation targeting help or hurt?

This paper revisits the comparison of the effects of inflation targeters versus hard fixers and intermediate exchange rate regimes. In particular, we are interested in exploring the impact of inflation targeting (IT) on real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility for a panel of 62 developing countries over the period 2006–2012. We also analyze the impact of IT regimes on REER in terms of its two component parts, i.e. relative tradable prices across countries as well as sectoral prices of tradables and nontradables within countries. The paper accounts for self-selection concerns regarding policy adoption and examines the effects of commodity exports and foreign exchange intervention. Notably, IT regimes seem to have experienced greater REER volatility, largely driven by external prices in developed countries. For developing countries, IT regimes show no difference in REER volatility, though there is some evidence that they have lower volatility in internal prices.     

Exchange Rate Regimes of Developing Countries: Global Context and Individual Choices

This paper argues that, in analyzing the choice of exchange rate regimes in developing and transition countries in the present global economic context, it is essential to distinguish between those countries with substantial involvement in international financial markets and those where involvement is limited. For developing countries with important linkages to modern global capital markets, an important lesson of the recent crises in emerging market countries is that the requirements for sustaining pegged exchange rate regimes have become significantly more demanding. For many emerging market countries, therefore, regimes that allow substantial actual exchange rate flexibility are probably desirable. If supported by the requisite policy discipline and institutional structures, however, hard currency pegs may also be appropriate for some of these countries. Beyond the emerging markets countries, for many developing countries with less linkage to global capital markets, traditionalexchange rate pegs and intermediate regimes are more viable and retain important advantages. J. Japan. Int. Econ., March 2001, 15(1), pp. 68–101. Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, 20431. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F31, F33, F41.     

Net foreign asset positions and appreciation expectations on the Swiss franc and the Japanese Yen

The paper shows that currencies of countries with persistent current account surpluses and high foreign-currency denominated assets, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, are under persistent appreciation pressure, particularly when the centres of the world monetary system follow expansionary monetary policies. This limits the choice of exchange rate regime. Given flexible exchange rates, a negative risk premium on the domestic interest rate can emerge. Empirical estimations provide mixed evidence for a negative impact of net foreign asset positions and exchange rate uncertainty on interest rates of international creditor countries at the periphery of the world monetary system.     

制度、文化与中国OFDI的利益动机

文章基于2004-2012年中国对外投资的跨国面板数据,考察影响中国OFDI区位选择的制度、文化与利益驱动因素,研究显示:东道国优良的制度水平会吸引中国OFDI进入,而以基因距离所刻画的文化异质性则是中国OFDI区位选择中的阻碍因素;争夺市场、获取资源和避税是中国OFDI的三大利益驱动。进一步研究利益驱动因素的时空变化,我们发现:（1）从时间演变看,中国OFDI的避税动机显著减弱,而争夺市场与资源的动机微弱加强;（2）从空间分布看,为了获取市场和资源,中国OFDI在地理距离上表现出"舍近求远"的空间替换时间策略;（3）从制度与文化因素看,争夺市场和避税两大动因倾向于选择制度水平高、与中国文化接近的国家,而获取资源的强烈动机则突破了制度缺陷和文化差异的限制。     

A double-edged sword: the impact of institutions and political relations on the international market expansion of Chinese state-owned enterprises

This study examines the interaction of three factors, the involvement of the home country government, of host country institutions and of bilateral political relations, as they affect the post-entry market expansion of Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in emerging, developing and developed countries. This study employs the case study method. The findings show that home country government involvement can either support or constrain SOEs’ subsequent market expansion. In emerging and developing countries, underdeveloped institutions create difficulties which can deter the market expansion of Chinese SOEs. In developed host countries, the challenges associated with unfamiliar institutions can be overcome through experiential learning. The political relations between the host country and China may influence the impact of institutions in the host country on the market expansion of Chinese SOEs.