Semiparametric Model of Hedonic Housing Prices in Japan

We propose a semiparametric hedonic model of housing prices with nonlinearity in age and cohort effects. The model avoids the simultaneity problem among age, cohort and year effects, which is a common problem in linear hedonic models. Applying the model to housing prices in Tokyo between 1990 and 2008 revealed significant nonlinearities in both the age and cohort effects, and significant interactions between these effects, with the shape of the age effect differing across housing cohorts. Estimates of the year effect indicated a declining trend in prices that was more pronounced compared with those of conventional linear hedonic models.     

我国住房价格与租金背离的行为解释

马克思的地租理论及迪帕斯奎尔-惠顿模型(D-W模型),均认为房价与租金成正比关系。然而我国现实数据显示:房价与租金受各种因素的干扰而呈现出非正比的背离关系。房价与租金背离的缘由是土地制度导致市场供给短缺,体制转轨使得住房需求激增、居住文化加剧供需矛盾。而粮食安全问题、小产权房现象、宏观调控政策则强化了房价与租金的背离关系。为此,应继续大力发展开发业务,满足日益增长的购房需求,同时加强对租赁市场的培育。     

非对称信息下的市场：—2001年诺贝尔经济学奖得主的理论及应用

本文考察了2001年三位诺贝尔经济学奖得主在非对称信息理论上的学术贡献,阿克洛夫提出了非对称信息的情况下,逆向选择会导致“柠檬市场”的出现。斯宾塞的信号传递模型和斯蒂格利茨的信息甄别（筛选）模型进一步研究了非对称信息市场的治理机制,最后,简述了非对称信息理论在我国市场经济建设中的借鉴意义。     

The Size of the Rental Market and Housing Market Fluctuations

The paper investigates whether the size of the rental market affects house prices fluctuations or the volatility of construction sector activity over the business cycle. For that purpose we construct a database of variables describing the housing sector in a group of twelve initial euro area members and ten other OECD countries over the years 1995–2014 and conduct a series of panel regressions. We find that a developed rental market attenuates fluctuations in the housing sector, especially for the common currency area sample. We claim that differences among monetary union countries in terms of rental market developments can be destabilizing as they might lead to heterogeneous response to common shocks.     

住房、负债与家庭股市参与——基于CHFS的实证研究

房产是家庭总资产的重要组成部分，近些年中国家庭在房产上的过度追逐必然影响到家庭的股票投资行为。不同于以往的研究思路，文章运用中国家庭金融调查数据，不仅研究了住房对家庭股市和风险资本市场参与的影响，验证了已有学者得出的住房对家庭参与金融市场的挤出效应；又进一步研究了不同类型的住房负债对该挤出效应的影响程度。首先，文章研究发现，住房对家庭参与股市和风险资本市场有显著的挤出效应，住房不仅降低了家庭进入股票和风险资本市场的概率，也降低了家庭参与股票和风险资本市场的深度。其次，文章研究发现，房屋负债抑制了住房对家庭股市参与的挤出效应，但房屋正规贷款和房屋民间借款对股市参与的影响相反，房屋正规贷款能够促进家庭参与股市，降低住房对股市参与的抑制作用；但房屋民间借款的存在增加了住房对家庭股市参与的挤出效应。文章认为，严控住房市场，抑制家庭多套房的投资行为，使多余的资金合理的流向金融市场，深化金融市场，才能促进金融市场健康有序的发展。     

Face Value: Information and Signaling in an Illegal Market

Economists argue that rich information environments and formal enforcement of contracts are necessary to prevent market failures when information asymmetries exist. We test for the necessity of formal enforcement to overcome the problems of asymmetric information by estimating the value of information in an illegal market with a particularly rich information structure: the online market for male sex work. We assemble a rich data set from the largest and most comprehensive online male sex worker Web site to estimate the effect of information on pricing. We show how clients of male sex workers informally police the market in a way that makes signaling credible. Using institutional knowledge, we identify the specific signal male sex workers use to communicate quality to clients: face pictures. We find that there is a substantial return to the signal in this market. The findings provide novel evidence on the ability of rich information environments to overcome problems of asymmetric information without formal enforcement mechanisms.     

中国房企的"王者之道"--访上海稳健投资集团首席执行官冷君雷

做好房地产业务必须把握几个关键：一是企业的现金流情况要好，要确保开发项目正常运转；二是企业的资产负债率要低，要能够抵御政策所带来的经营风险；三是企业的经营团队要精干，并要善于借助社会力量和“外脑”，用精干的小班子高效地运作大项目。[编者按]     

Capitalization of Flood Insurance and Risk Perceptions in Housing Prices: An Empirical Agent‐Based Model Approach

Federally regulated or insured lenders in the United States are mandated to require flood insurance on properties that are located in areas at high risk of flooding. Despite the existence of this mandatory flood insurance requirement, take‐up rates for flood insurance have been low, and the federal government's exposure to uninsured property losses from flooding remains substantial. Meanwhile, the value of capital at risk varies significantly with flood events and changing risk perceptions, which necessitates mechanisms that stabilize these dynamics. In this article we discuss how a scenario of complete insurance uptake, under various risk attitudes, affects the value of properties in the 100‐year and 500‐year flood zones. Our results indicate that an increase in flood insurance uptake may provide such a mechanism by lowering the value of capital at risk in the flood zone consistently, independent of homeowners' risk attitudes. We apply an empirical adaptive agent‐based model to examine the capitalization of insurance costs, risk premiums, and their interaction in housing prices. Our approach combines widely‐used empirical hedonic analysis with the computational economic framework. We highlight the usefulness of our method in capturing the marginal implicit price of homeowners' preferences that may change over time and separately assess the effect of various factors and policies on property values, illustrating the agent‐based modeling as a valuable complement to traditional hedonic analysis.     

中国住宅价格的收入弹性估计及其区域性差异

本文基于1999-2007年的省级面板数据对剔除经济适用房之后的商品住宅价格的收入弹性进行了测度.研究发现:(1)全国层面,长期弹性为0.6-0.9,短期弹性为0.9-1.0;(2)在地区层面,长期弹性而言,东部为0.7-1.0,中部为0.4-0.5,西部为0.8;短期弹性而言,西部地区最大为1.3,东部最小为0.3-0.5,中部为0.9-1.0.除此之外,我们还发现,当实际住宅价格偏离长期均衡价格时,其向均衡价格收敛的速度,东部最慢,中部最快,西部次之.这些发现对我们深化对各地区商品住房市场发展差异性的认识有重要作用.文章最后对政府如何调控商品住宅价格提出了一些相应的政策建议.     

迪拜危机：昭示资产飙涨风险

2009年10月25日，阿联酋公国迪拜的政府投资机构迪拜世界集团称，该集团请求债权人签署一份“暂停还款协议”，以推迟其偿还债务的时间。 截至2009年8月底，迪拜世界集团的负债为590亿美元，在迪拜的800亿美元债务总额中占了多数比例。     

Internal Information Quality and the Sensitivity of Investment to Market Prices and Accounting Profits

We ask whether the quality of internal information matters for investment decisions. We predict that investment is more sensitive to internal profit signals and less sensitive to external price signals when managers have higher‐quality internal information. Consistent with recent theoretical and empirical research, we proxy for internal information quality using observable information properties. We find that the sensitivity of investment to profitability is increasing, while the sensitivity of investment to market‐to‐book is decreasing in internal information quality. Our focus on internal information and decision making offers new and unique insights on the importance of information quality and complements the growing literature on the role of external reporting quality in reducing financing frictions.     

人口结构对住宅价格的影响——基于北京地区的实证研究

文章以北京市为例,使用1990—2011年北京地区人口结构和商品住宅价格数据,分析该地区人口结构变量对于房价的动态影响。文章发现,北京地区房价受到劳动人口比重、人口城镇化率、第三产业从业人口比重等三个人口结构变量的显著影响。其中,劳动人口比重对于房价的正向影响持续最短;第三产业从业人口比重对于房价的正向影响持续最长,影响力度也是最大;同时,人口结构变量整体对于房价的影响具有长期性。     

The Impact of Social Housing Developments on Nearby Property Prices: a Nelson Mandela Bay Case Study

Social housing projects often face substantial “Not‐in‐my‐backyard” (NIMBY) sentiment and, as a result, are frequently plagued by local opposition from communities who argue that nearby property prices will be affected adversely by these developments. International hedonic pricing studies conducted have, however, produced mixed results with some concluding that social housing developments may in fact lead to an improvement in surrounding property values. There is, however, a paucity of South African evidence. This study considers the validity of the most pervasive NIMBY argument, the claim that social housing developments negatively affect nearby property values, by considering the property prices of 170 single‐family homes in the Walmer neighbourhood, Nelson Mandela Bay, as a function of their proximity to an existing low‐cost housing development. The results of this study indicate that in the case of one Nelson Mandela Bay low‐cost housing development, a negative impact is exerted on the property values of nearby houses.     

Determinants of Housing Prices and Bubble Detection: Evidence from Seven Advanced Economies

This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between residential property prices and the business cycle for seven advanced Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development economies over the period 2002–2015 using quarterly data. To this end, panel data and time series methodologies are adopted as a means of providing a contextual framework on the extant relationship. The panel methodological framework explores the interaction between economic fundamentals and financial variables while the use of time series methodologies developed by Phillips et al. (2011 and 2015) provide novel evidence on the detection of property price bubbles that have been manifested in each individual country of the sample. In particular, the short-run dynamic panel framework provides a robust exploratory platform thus, shedding light on the determinants of property prices (i.e. real gross domestic product, bank credit growth, long-term bond yields and real effective exchange rate) whilst the bubble detection methodologies provide evidence of the impact of credit-driven economies on the propagation of housing booms which can serve as warning signals of the potential formation of housing bubbles.     

How the Removal of a Market Barrier Enhanced Market Efficiency: The Case of WTI and Brent Crude Oil Prices

Atlantic Economic Journal - If the world oil market is efficient, arbitrage should lead the West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil price indexes to converge whenever they stray apart. From the...     

公共服务设施步行可达性对住宅价格的影响——基于累积机会的可达性度量方法

构建节能环保低碳的“绿色交通体系”是目前解决城市交通及其一系列衍生问题的重要举措。“将生活与服务混在一起”对于提升步行效能、促进步行和降低机动交通需求有重要的现实意义。公共服务设施步行可达性,反映居民获取公共服务设施的难易程度,对住宅价格具有资本化效应。文章以厦门岛1840个普通多/高层住宅为样本,通过累积机会法评价教育、商业、医疗和文体4种公共服务设施的步行可达性,并构建特征价格方程来检验公共品在住宅市场的资本化方向与程度。研究发现,教育、医疗和商业3类公共服务设施的规划布局已资本化入住宅价格：教育和商业服务步行可达性对住宅价格有正向影响,而二/三甲医院步行可达性有负向影响;省示范小学步行可达性对房价的正向影响大于重点中学;市区级文化体育中心对房价的影响不显著;此外,建筑面积、小区内部环境、商业中心距离等因素对房价都有显著的影响。特征价格模型也实证估计了各特征变量对住宅价格的影响程度。     

乌鲁木齐市住宅市场与外部环境协调状况分析

研究目的：分析乌鲁木齐市住宅市场与外部环境的协调状况,找出住宅市场内部及外部环境主要驱动因素;研究对象：乌鲁木齐市住宅市场系统与外部环境系统;研究方法：耦合关系模型;研究结论：乌鲁木齐市住宅市场与外部环境整体上处于低度协调状态,主要原因是乌鲁木齐市外部环境发展状况滞后于住宅市场发展状况;住宅市场内部驱动因素由大到小是住宅投资、住宅需求、住宅供给和住宅价格,外部环境内部驱动因素由大到小是经济环境、金融环境、政策环境和社会环境。     

The Effect of Environmental Risk on the Efficiency of Negotiated Transfer Prices

This study investigates whether environmental risk affects the efficiency of negotiated transfer prices. We analyze a setting where the buyer faces environmental risk but the seller does not. From the risk‐neutral firm's perspective, the transfer should be made in our setting because the expected value of the buyer's profit is greater than the certain opportunity cost of the seller from the transfer. We develop hypotheses to predict that, as environmental risk increases, it becomes more difficult for buyers and sellers to reach agreement. Such difficulty reduces efficiency in terms of both firm profit and negotiation time. We test our hypotheses via an experiment in which buyer and seller dyads negotiate over the transfer of a resource at six levels of environmental risk. Results show that, as predicted, environmental risk decreases efficiency. Specifically, as environmental risk increases, the frequency of agreement decreases, thereby reducing expected firm profit. Further, environmental risk increases negotiation time for those dyads that are able to reach an agreement. Data suggest that the cause of the decreased efficiency is that buyers and sellers use different reference points for determining a fair transfer price and environmental risk exacerbates the effects of such differences.     

银企关系的信息价值与企业金融化趋势的冲击——来自贷款公告市场反应的证据

文章采用一种更加综合的银企关系度量方式,从贷款公告市场反应的视角,首次检验了银企关系强度与企业金融化对银行缓解信息不对称能力的影响。基于A股市场数据,研究发现银企关系越亲密,贷款公告的市场反应越正面,表明亲密的银企关系有助于提高银行缓解信息不对称的能力,但危机后企业的金融化行为会削弱亲密银企关系的信息价值。文章深化了银行信息生产领域的研究,为银企关系的信息价值以及信息在金融市场中的传递机制提供了新的证据。