Markets under price controls in partial and general equilibrium

When parallel markets arise in the face of price or other controls, two aspects of agents' behavior become crucial in analyzing market outcomes. First, sellers' risk will rise with increases in illegal sales, but may also fall with increases in legal sales. If the latter is true, the parallel market price will induce higher output. Second, if consumers can be given access to the price-controlled good without incurring search, queuing and other transaction costs due to rationing, production of the controlled good will be higher. These effects are demonstrated in both partial and general equilibrium.     

Economic efficiency and the common law

Do legal rules based on the common law in the U.S. result in economically efficient outcomes? Beginning with Posner and Rubin, a substantial amount of literature supports the hypothesis that there is a natural tendency for common law to evolve over time so as to yield economically efficient court rulings. According to this view, disputants will litigate whenever the existing rules are inefficient. If the rules are efficient then no such incentive exists, in which case the legal rules are affirmed. By respectifying the Rubin model as a two-person, non-cooperative, simultaneous-move game, the analysis presented in this paper appears to support the arguments put forth by Landes, Gould, Tullock, and others that there is a general tendency for the disputants to pursue an out-of-court settlement. The analysis also suggests that it may also be in the litigant's best interest to negotiate an out-of-court settlement when the legal rules are efficient if the expected net present value of accident and avoidance costs is less than the litigants' court costs. Finally, it may pay to litigate even when the legal rules are efficient if the expected net present value of accident and avoidance costs is greater than the sum of the litigants' court costs.     

Enforcement,Socioeconomic Diversity,and Tax Filing Compliance in the United States

In this article, we examine the determinants of tax filing compliance in the United States. We use county‐level data on non‐filing rates for the tax year 2000, obtained directly from the Internal Revenue Service. We include explanatory variables identified in the “rational compliance” framework, including an enforcement index against identified non‐filers, the audit rate of filers, and the average penalty rate for both filers and non‐filers. We also examine the role of socioeconomic diversity on tax compliance, testing whether within‐county heterogeneity in household income, language, race, and religion can help explain variation in non‐filing rates. We find that non‐filing is increasing with heterogeneity by race, although not by income or language, and that non‐filing is decreasing with heterogeneity by religious membership. As for enforcement variables, we find that non‐filing rates tend to fall with the enforcement index. Other variables have somewhat mixed results.     

Endogenous Role in Mixed Markets: A Two-Production-Period Model

In this paper, I investigate endogenous roles in a mixed duopoly, where private and state-owned public turns compete, by allowing two production periods. I find that many equilibria exist, including the Coumot-type equilibrium and one Stackelberg-type equilibrium where the public firm becomes the follower. However, another Stackelberg-type equilibrium where the public firm becomes the leader does not exist. If small inventory costs are introduced, the unique equilibrium outcome becomes the Stackelberg type where the public firm is the follower.     

基于粒子群优化反向传播神经网络的铁路路基沉降量预测

铁路路基沉降规律复杂、沉降量难以预测,因此提出一种粒子群优化反向传播神经网络的路基沉降量预测模型。传统神经网络建模时存在收敛速度慢、易陷入局部极小值等不足。因此,通过粒子群算法修正网络的初始权/阈值,提高全局收敛性,建立基于粒子群优化的反向传播神经网络预测模型。通过对宝中线实测数据进行仿真实验,结果显示：经粒子群优化的神经网络可避免局部极小问题,加快网络收敛速度,提高了对铁路路基沉降量的预测精度。     

Time-to-market in vertically differentiated industries

This paper analyzes the optimal time to introduce a new product in a vertical differentiated market when the delay between innovation and market opening can be shortened through investments whose costs increase, the shorter the desired delay. The timing process is affected by the trade-off between being first and getting monopoly profits, and postponing entry for reducing time-to-market costs. We study the balance of these forces and how this balance is influenced by market structure. In our model, it is possible a priori to observe at the optimal solution both a quality-upgrading equilibrium (first entering the market with the low quality good and then marketing the high quality variant) and quality-downgrading equilibrium (first entering the market with the high quality good and then marketing the low quality variant) while in the existing published literature a quality-upgrading equilibrium is always observed.     

Dispute Rates and Contingency Fees: An Analysis from the Signaling Model

We analyze contingency fees in the Reinganum and Wilde (1986) signaling model of litigation. The effect of contingency fees on settlement depends on the details of the contingency fee contract and the nature of the informational asymmetry assumed in the model. Introducing bifurcated fee contracts where the contingency percentage is higher at trial changes the selection of disputes at trial but has ambiguous effects on the overall dispute rate when an informed plaintiff makes the offer. For reasonable parameter values, it increases settlement in the model where the informed defendant makes the offer. Introduction of a unitary contingency fee in which the contingency percentage is the same in a pretrial settlement as at trial unambiguously increases the incidence of trial in both variations of the signaling model. The interaction of fee shifting with contingency fees is also analyzed.     

Capital Account Liberalisation by China and the Effects on Global FDI and Trade

We model the partial liberalisation of the capital account by China using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Our results indicate that a reduced capital controls on foreign direct investment (FDI) would lead to a significant increase in FDI capital in China and a significant reduction in the cost of capital in China relative to the rest of the world. Furthermore, we observe an increase in capital stocks in most regions, which benefits most regions in terms of GDP and GNP. The Chinese economy grows by 3.3% driven by a significant fall in the rental price of capital that, in turn, lowers domestic costs, causes a real depreciation of the exchange rate and thus increased exports relative to other regions. We also observe an across-the-board increase in the saving rate driven by the rise in the price of consumption relative to investment (saving) in all regions.     

Bifurcation and sunspots in the continuous time equilibrium model with capacity utilization

In the present paper, we construct a continuous time model of economic growth with positive externalities and with variable capacity utilization, and study the global equilibrium paths in this model. If there is a homoclinic orbit or a periodic solution in this model, equilibrium is globally indeterminate. We show that positive externalities can yield multiple steady states, a one-parameter family of homoclinic orbits, and a two-parameter family of periodic solutions. It is also shown that there exists a sunspot equilibrium in this model.     

Relating Product Prices to Long‐Run Marginal Cost: Evidence from Solar Photovoltaic Modules

A basic tenet of microeconomics is that for a competitive industry in equilibrium the market price of a product will be equal to its marginal cost. This paper develops a model framework and a corresponding empirical inference procedure for estimating long‐run marginal cost in industries where production costs decline over time. In the context of the solar photovoltaic (PV) module industry, we rely primarily on firm‐level financial accounting data to estimate the long‐run marginal cost of PV modules for the years 2008–2013. During those years, the industry experienced both unprecedented price declines and significant expansions of manufacturing capacity. We compare the trajectory of average sales prices with the estimated long‐run marginal costs in order to quantify the extent to which actual price declines were attributable to reductions in production costs. The trajectory of estimated product costs is then extrapolated to forecast an equilibrium trend line for future PV module prices.     

基于大数据思维的隧道施工地表沉降预测方法

为研究城市地铁隧道施工引起地表沉降的分布规律,做好预测预控工作,基于大数据分析思维,利用隧道先期掘进段沉降数据资料分析Peck公式的适用性,在适用性得到验证的前提下,建立带有不确定参数的Peck公式的三维空间分布模型,对模型进行不确定参数的函数转换,根据函数转换条件运用最小二乘法对所求的解进行反转换得到确定性参数,代入Peck公式后即可得到完整的隧道施工地表沉降预测模型。以青岛地铁隧道施工的过程监测数据为例,运用上述方法得到的沉降预测模型计算监测点的预测沉降值,运用灰色预测理论中的后验差检验方法对地表沉降预测模型的精度进行检验评定,评定结果显示该模型所得沉降值和实测数据拟合精度合格率为100%,说明该方法所求参数与模型合理可行,可有效预测隧道施工过程中地表沉降值。     

The theory of optimum currency areas,trade adjustment,and trade

This article seeks to provide a closer integration of the theory of optimum currency areas with the theory of international trade. A currency area is treated as a continuous variable ranging from zero to one: zero if there is no enlargement, and some positive value otherwise, corresponding exactly to the percentge of trade in the enlarged area. The benefits of widening a currency area are then regarded, in terms of conventional trade theory, as equivalent to a reduction in transportation cost. The costs of widening a currency area are seen, instead, with reference to open economy macroeconomics, as a drop in the speed of adjustment of the terms of trade to their long-run equilibrium level. On this basis, it is shown that the marginal benefits of enlarging a currency area fall, the marginal costs rise, and an optimum size arises. But this size depends heavily on the optimal composition of the members.CEPR     

Organization of production in a competitive economy

In the present paper we introduce a general equilibrium model of the organization of production and analyze the optimality and existence of an equilibrium. We introduce the production technology of the economy as a collection of production processes and allow each potential producer to choose the production processes to operate. We model organization and transaction costs by means of an organizational technology that determines the production set of a producer as a function of the production processes that the producer chooses to operate. For a competitive economy, we show the equilibrium organization of production is optimal and then prove a general existence theorem for an atomless economy.     

A Note on the Distribution of Trade Gains in a Model of Monopolistic Competition

This article examines the relationship between relative country size and the welfare consequences of opening trade in a model of monopolistic competition with trade costs. The findings indicate that if two countries produce differentiated products in trading equilibrium, the rate of welfare changes brought about by opening trade will be equalized across the countries.     

The utilisation of engineering services bulk infrastructure components in integrated development planning

In practice, infrastructure planning has generally tended to follow land-use planning, with infrastructure costs seeming to play no role in the generation of land-use strategies. To address this problem, a bulk infrastructure cost model has been developed to provide a tool for planners to ensure the incorporation of bulk infrastructure capacity and cost considerations into the early, land suitability assessment phase of the integrated development planning process. The output of the model is in the form of potential cost contours, which facilitates the relative comparison of infrastructure costs for different density scenarios. Bulk engineering services infrastructure relating to water, sanitation and electricity has been included in the model. The theoretical underpinning of the model is threshold analysis, and the three essential elements are threshold, density and cost. They are incorporated into the model through capacity analysis. The set density levels convert into the number of additional person units required which, in turn, is translated into infrastructure capacity demand. Existing infrastructure network and facility design capacities are compared with the current utilisation of infrastructure in order to quantify the capacity supply situation. The comparison of capacity demand with capacity supply determines whether or not additional infrastructure is required. If infrastructure is required, the required infrastructure investment is calculated. The resulting relative costs are mapped and incorporated into a wider land suitability assessment model. Infrastructure costs vary with location according to local land use, geotechnical, environmental and built conditions, making the role of the geographic information system in the model appropriate and important.     

Hazardous waste management in South African mining – a CGE analysis of the economic impacts

There is no doubt that improved hazardous waste management in mining and mineral processing will reduce environmental and health risks in South Africa. However, sceptics fear that waste reduction, appropriate treatment and disposal are not affordable within the current economic circumstances of the country. In particular, it is argued that higher treatment and disposal costs would weaken the country's international competitiveness in important export markets on the one hand, and place heavy adjustment costs on black workers on the other. Thus, improvements in waste management are not enforceable, from either an economic or a social point of view. This article deals mainly with the first aspect and touches upon the second. It investigates the short-term and long-term sectoral impacts of an environmental tax on hazardous waste in South African mining, using an open-economy multisectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results bear out the expectation that the possibilities for shifting higher production costs are limited in an open economy. Moreover, the results also show that the brunt of the adjustment resulting from an isolated approach towards hazardous waste management will have to be borne by black workers.     

The welfare effects of the antebellum tariff: A general equilibrium analysis

In this paper a general equilibrium model of the United States in 1859 is developed and solved using the Scarf algorithm. Such a formulation allows the U. S. equilibrium to be computed for differing parameter specifications, so that the comparative static effects of policies involving even very complex interactions within the economy may be analyzed. In this case, the general equilibrium effects of the tariff in the United States are examined by comparing the actual, or initial, equilibrium with a hypothetical equilibrium in which the tariff has been eliminated. We find that the South was in fact injured by the tariff; the price of cotton and the return to slaveholding would have both risen significantly with its elimination. The principal beneficiary of the tariff was free labor. Removal of the tariff would have produced a decrease in the real wage and a slight fall in the return to capital. Overall, real income in the United States would have declined by 1.07 to 1.09% as a result of tariff elimination, or by between $44 and $45 million in current prices. Alternative parameter specifications may produce different results, ranging from the Metzler paradox in the case of very inelastic substitution in R.O.W. consumer demand to cases of increases in real income with tariff elimination in the cases of elastic substitution in either R.O.W. or U. S. consumer demand. A final caveat in judging the results should be inserted here. Factor endowments for 1859 are taken as fixed. The comparative static results here answer the question: What would have the 1859 United States been like if the tariff had been eliminated, allowing time for full adjustment? No dynamic effects are taken into account, such as adjustments in factor supplies. Consequently, the 1859 United States that had consistently followed a free trade policy would have looked quite different from the one that pursued a policy of protection and then eliminated the tariff, which we consider here.     

Endogenous transportation technology in a Cournot differential game with intraindustry trade

We investigate a dynamic Cournot duopoly with intraindustry trade, where firms invest in R&D to reduce the level of iceberg transportation costs. We adopt both open-loop and closed-loop equilibrium concepts, showing that a unique (saddle point) steady state exists in both cases. In the open-loop model, optimal investments and the resulting efficiency of transportation technology are independent of the relative size of the two countries. On the contrary, in the closed-loop case firms’ R&D incentives are driven by the relative size of the two countries. Policy implications are also evaluated.     

Risk Aversion and the Winner's Curse

This article analyzes an auction in which bidders see independent components of a common prize value. The Nash equilibrium for two rational bidders is shown to be independent of risk attitudes. The information structure allows explicit calculation of an alternative equilibrium in which naive bidders do not correctly discount the value of the prize, contingent on winning, and thus they suffer the winner's curse. Subjects in a laboratory experiment clearly fall prey to the winner's curse; the data conform most closely to the predictions of the naive model. Moreover, the level of risk aversion implied by fitting the naive model is similar to an independent risk aversion measure obtained in a separate (private value) bidding exercise.     

AIDS Home- and Community-Based Waivers: Effects on Use of Services,Expenditures, and Survival

State Medicaid home- and community-based waiver programs for persons with AIDS (PWAs) were implemented with the expectation that PWAs would use these services in lieu of more expensive hospital-based care. If so, Medicaid spending per PWA should decline, and program costs fall. We analyze Florida Medicaid claims data for PWAs from December 1995 through December 1997 to determine how participation in the waiver program affects the use of inpatient services, the receipt of antiretroviral combination therapies (available to Medicaid recipients throughout the study period), monthly expenditures, and survival of PWAs. We find that waiver participants are more likely to receive combination therapies but less likely to use hospital-based care than nonparticipants; white men and sicker patients are more likely to join the waiver program than other eligible PWAs; monthly expenditures for waiver participants are 52% lower than for nonparticipants; and waiver participation does not affect survival.