发展中国家的开放、贸易政策与经济增长--一个跨国的实证分析

本文从实证角度出发，通过使用一个跨国的回归分析，从实证角度出发讨论了发展中国家经济开放与其自身经济增长之间的关系。结果表明：在一定条件下，完全的贸易自由化将不但无法推动而且可能阻碍一国经济的持续发展。进一步，对导致这种现象的原因的分析表明：自由贸易本身仍旧是经济发展的动力，真正影响一国贸易福利改善的因素是要素市场所存在的扭曲。因此，在加强对外开放的同时，为了促进本国经济的增长，一国应在长期采取“对症原则”的基础上，采取措施彻底消除要素市场的扭曲。     

发展中国家政府如何为实现可持续增长而有所为

文章以成功实现经济持续增长的经济体为案例,试图归纳出使得经济持续增长的一般化因素。文章指出,发展中国家为实现经济增长应该有所为、制定长远的增长规划,并采取渐进式和实践性的政策措施。政府的具体战略选择包括保持高投资率、鼓励学习和创新、引导资源配置以及提供必要的保护等。     

Financial Openness and Aid for Trade in Developing Countries

This article examines the effect of De Jure financial openness in developing countries on the total amount of bilateral AfT inflows that accrues to these countries. The analysis relies on 126 countries over the period 1995–2015 and uses both the within fixed effects and the two‐step system GMM estimators. Results suggest that the effect of financial openness on AfT depends on the level of financial openness, whose values range between 0 and 100. A positive and significant effect is obtained for levels of financial openness lower than the value 48. In contrast, the effect becomes negative for countries whose level of financial openness is higher than 62. Countries whose degree of financial openness is comprised between 48 and 62 experience no significant effect of financial openness on the amount of the AfT flows that they receive. Overall, the analysis shows that financial openness does matter for the amount of AfT that recipient‐countries receive from donor‐countries.     

从发展中国家金融危机频发看南北金融矛盾的激化

当前发展中国家之所以金融危机频发 ,主要是发达资本主义国家在其经济过渡金融化的新形势 ,利用不合理的国际经济金融旧秩序 ,将内生于资本主义生产方式且日益金融化的经济危机 ,向发展中国家进行转嫁的结果。因此 ,它集中体现了南北金融矛盾之深刻性。当前南北金融矛盾主要体现在关于国际金融的自由化与有序化、关于国际金融组织的改革、关于外债的减免等问题上。要促成南北金融矛盾的缓解 ,发展中国家既要加强与发达资本主义国家的斗争 ,也要加强与发达资本主义国家的合作     

制度质量、对外援助和受援国经济增长

对外援助是中国推动一带一路建设,加强与沿线国家双边合作的重要举措之一。文章采用2000～2014年中国对外援助的面板数据,在考虑援助的内生性及使用全球治理指数的基础上,实证研究了中国对外援助和制度质量对受援国经济增长的影响。实证研究结果表明:中国对外援助尤其是基础设施援助能够有效促进受援国的经济增长;良好的制度建设是受援国经济增长的重要保障;分样本回归显示,受援国制度质量能够显著影响中国对外援助尤其是经济基础设施援助的经济增长效应,这一效应在亚欧受援国表现明显;拓展分析发现中国对外援助和OECD国家对外援助呈现出1+1>2的效果。为提升中国对外援助的效果和质量,中国需要改进对外援助结构,加强对援助项目实施过程的监督,减少受援国制度风险的影响。     

Measuring Restrictiveness of Bilateral Trade Policies: A Comparison between Developed and Developing Countries

This paper compares the degree of openness to trade of three developed countries markets—the European Union, Japan, the United States—with that of three middle-income countries, namely Brazil, India, and China. A theoretically consistent protection measure—the Mercantilistic Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI)—is employed to average tariffs at different levels of aggregation. The computation relies on a comparative static applied general equilibrium model (Global Trade Analysis Project—GTAP) featuring imperfect competition as well as on the bilateral applied tariffs included in the most recent version of the GTAP database. Results provide a different picture from what could have been expected given the widely publicized diffusion of preferential schemes supposedly favoring developing countries exports. JEL no.  F17, C68, Q17     

金融安全、全球化与经济增长：来自发展中国家的经验

本文考察发展中国家金融安全和全球化对其经济增长的影响机制,利用71个发展中国家1998至2005年的面板数据,对增长模型进行估计和分析。结果表明,发展中国家的经济增长存在条件趋同,且同时存在新古典增长理论和新增长理论的趋同机制。拥有较高金融安全水平的发展中国家,全球化有利于其经济发展;金融安全水平较低、国内金融环境不稳定的国家,却不能因为全球化程度的深化而受益。     

On Taxation,Political Accountability and Foreign Aid: Empirics to a Celebrated Literature

The Eubank findings on taxation, political accountability and foreign aid have had an important influence on academic and policymaking debates. Eubank has warned that his findings should not be generalised across Africa until they are backed by robust empirical evidence. This paper puts some empirical structure to the celebrated literature. The empirical evidence which is based on data from 53 African countries for the period 1996‐2010 broadly confirms the Somaliland‐based Eubank hypothesis that in the absence of foreign aid, the dependence of government on local tax revenues provides the leverage for better political governance.     

Small Firm Growth in Developing Countries

Although the vast majority of small firms in developing countries never expand beyond a few employees, some experience rapid and substantial growth. This study explores factors associated with small firm growth. We discuss key findings for four types of factors: (1) individual entrepreneur characteristics; (2) firm characteristics; (3) relational factors (such as social networks or value chains); and (4) contextual factors (such as the business environment). We conclude by suggesting implications for development practitioners.     

发展中国家电子商务政策制定的博弈分析

文章研究了发展中国家电子商务政策与企业电子商务创新能力和市场空间等因素的相互关系,对企业电子商务做了一个内生性的拓展,以说明在提高电子商务水平的活动中,企业将政府政策转化成电子商务应用能力的程度存在差异;并在非合作博弈的基础上,分析了两国在一定创新能力下的企业间相互作用和最优电子商务决策下政策转化为电子商务应用能力的程度。研究表明,发展中国家制定电子商务优惠政策时需要考虑企业电子商务技术溢出、电子商务创新能力和市场空间等情况。     

Aid for Trade in Developing Countries: Complex Linkages for Real Effectiveness*

Abstract: Aid for trade is intended to support the integration of developing countries into the world trading system. Although this form of aid is being hailed as a promising new development tool, it lacks the strategic dimension that it needs if it is to be truly effective and fulfill donors' policy commitments. From a theoretical perspective, this paper presents the various aid‐for‐trade categories and analyzes the linkages between foreign direct investment, aid for trade and development. It also presents a typology of trade‐related needs for a panel of countries, to serve as a guide for donors in formulating their aid supply strategies. This typology reveals a number of disparities between countries and regions, as well as a low level of regional integration. Trade‐related needs are particularly significant in West Africa and East Africa, and substantial in the infrastructure sector. This paper also stresses the importance of refining the formulation of actual demand by beneficiaries, structuring the aid supply in accordance with donors' specific areas of expertise and enhancing coordination among the various stakeholders, both public and private. Lastly, further trade liberalization will not by itself suffice to generate strong growth and improve the geographical and sectoral distribution of foreign direct investment. Factors such as political stability, the business climate, physical infrastructure, institutions and human capital also play a fundamental role. Of particular importance is the coherence of trade, sectoral, macroeconomic and tax policies, not only within each country and region but also between industrialized and developing countries.     

投资与经济增长的实证研究:关于发展中国家的观点

本文探讨发展中国家投资和基础设施与经济发展的关系,对其经济发展和政策制定具有重要的理论参考意义.实证研究表明,投资和基础设施存量的增加,对发展中国家经济增长有显著推动作用;不同制度条件影响投资效率;高投资率不一定带来高增长率.     

Time-Consistent Polities and Growth in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis

This paper investigates whether stable political regimes develop stable systems of rules that are conducive to growth, similar to property rights. New measures of political stability indicate that stable political systems stimulate growth in developing autocratic countries. Contrarily, political instability significantly reduces growth in autocracies, as instability creates a time-consistency problem. In some specifications, an instability measure has significant negative growth effects in democracies, and may be an alternative to measures of property rights. Similarly, ethnic fractionalization reduces growth in autocracies, but not developing democracies. Tests indicate that these results are not sensitive to extreme values in the data. JEL no. O40, H11     

新解中国在澳大利亚投资

澳大利亚是中国最大的对外直接投资对象,大部分投资目标是资源部门。是否需要对这些主要来自于中国国有企业、无论在规模还是增速上都汹涌而来的投资进行特殊审查,成为一个问题。这关乎中国投资是否与其他国家在澳投资获得了同等待遇的问题。较世界上其他国家,澳大利亚始终保持着对中国投资更为开放的态度。尽管关于国企投资的讨论给澳大利亚和其他国家的政策制定者带来了新的问题,但中国投资仍然对澳大利亚有利,并且在适当的制度和政策推动下,仍将强劲增长。     

New Public Management and Developing Countries

While N-PM gained higher popularity in many developed countries, such as New Zealand and Australia, the problem of its perfect transferability comes into agenda. This paper points out that the inappropriateness of NPM to developing countries lies in the internal inability such as informal public sectors （mainly focus on human resource perspective） and budget, and informal market economy; and finally concludes that NPM is not necessarily suitable for developing countries.