Real Exchange Rates,the Trade Balance and Net Foreign Assets: Long-Run Relationships and Measures of Misalignment

In this paper we estimate equilibrium exchange rates for 23 OECD countries and four less mature economies in a panel data setting. Our empirical analysis demonstrates significant links between the trade balance and net foreign assets, and between real exchange rates and the trade balance, rather than between real exchange rates and net foreign asset, as predicted by the model of Lane and Milessi-Ferretti (2002). Our study indicates that, in terms of the association between real exchange rates and trade balance, there is heterogeneity between the emerging market economies and the OECD countries. Finally, we construct various measures of exchange rate misalignment for all the exchange rates included in our panels.     

董事会独立性和有效性的动态分析

现有的董事会独立性与公司绩效间相关关系的大多数实证研究得出两者并不相关的结论,这与人们的普遍认识不符.本文运用时间序列分析的方法,并充分考虑到公司治理的滞后效应,动态分析我国上市公司的绩效和董事会独立性的相关关系.我们的研究表明,董事会独立性和公司绩效间呈现出"U"型动态曲线关系:上市公司在绩效较差时,翌年便会以增加独立董事名额的形式来提高董事会的独立性;主动增加独立董事可以改善公司的绩效,这种正面促进效应将滞后体现出来,滞后效应的跨度期可长达3年;被动增加独立董事不能明显改善公司绩效.上述结果表明,董事会独立性和公司绩效在短期不相关,是受到外部政策的直接影响.希望本文的结论能够为政策制定者提供借鉴.     

Estimating Long-Run Incarceration Rates for Australia,Canada, England and Wales,New Zealand,and the United States

Compiling data from dozens of archival sources, I assemble the most extensive series to date of the long-run imprisonment rate for five English-speaking nations: Australia, Canada, England and Wales, New Zealand, and the United States. These series are constructed as a share of adults rather than the entire population, and I discuss why the latter can be misleading. In the late-nineteenth century, Australia had the highest incarceration rate of these nations. Today, the United States has the highest rate. With the exception of Canada, incarceration rates have risen markedly since the mid-1980s. These new series are made available in full, to allow other researchers to explore the consequences and causes of incarceration.     

Determinants of Long-Run Unemployment

This paper investigates the determinants of long-run unemployment and growth by extending the endogenous growth model of Howitt and Aghion (1998) to allow for a more general treatment of the labor market in the spirit of Pissarides (1990). We find that (i) both long-run growth and unemployment depend not only on factors that affect long-run growth as identified in endogenous growth models with full employment, but also on certain labor market parameters; (ii) long-run unemployment may rise or fall with growth depending on the model's parameters; and (iii) though government policies that promote growth indirectly through improvement in labor market efficiency always reduce the long-run unemployment rate, policies that directly encourage investment in research and development may increase the unemployment rate.     

Integration of Long-Term Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence for G7 Countries

Abstract

This article investigates the fractional cointegration relationship between long-term interest rates of G7 countries over the period from 1990:01 to 2010:04 by estimating the cointegrating regressions for possible bivariate, trivariate and four-variate subsystems as well as the full system. The obtained results indicate that long-term interest rates are fractionally cointegrated for bivariate subsystems of Canada–France, Canada–Japan and Canada–UK and four-variate subsystem of Canada–USA–France–UK, implying integration.     

Short Sellers and Long-Run Management Forecasts

We examine how short sellers affect long-run management forecasts using a natural experiment (Regulation SHO) that relaxes short-selling constraints on a group of randomly selected firms (referred to as pilot firms). We find that compared to other firms, the pilot firms issue more long-run good news forecasts but do not change the frequency of long-run bad news forecasts. The increase in good news forecasts is greater when the pilot firms have higher-quality forecasts, greater uncertainty about firm value, or higher manager equity incentives. Overall, these results and the results of additional analyses indicate that the reduction in short-selling constraints and the increase in short-selling threat induce managers to enhance disclosures through more long-run good news forecasts to discourage short sellers.     

Long-Run Economic Performance and the Labor Market

This article uses a simple variation of the Solow model to study the interrelations between economic growth and the labor market. We show, both analytically and empirically, that income and capital per worker in the steady state depend positively on flexibility of the labor market; that the steady-state unemployment rate depends positively on the rate of population growth and the productivity growth rate and negatively on the savings rate and flexibility of the labor market; and, finally, that labor market flexibility affects convergence toward steady state.     

Long-Run Implications of Social Security Taxation for Growth and Fertility

This paper compares long-run implications for growth and fertility of four types of taxation for social security with positive bequests. A tax rise under lump-sum taxation enhances growth but lowers fertility, while other types of taxation do so under additional restrictions. A tax rise under consumption taxation is less likely to stimulate growth and to reduce fertility than under payroll taxation. A rise in an interest income tax raises fertility, reduces both savings and human capital investment, and hence is harmful for growth. The case with zero bequests is also discussed.     

零杠杆上市公司的股票长期收益趋势研究

与国际发达的资本市场类似,我国资本市场也存在企业零（低）杠杆现象。基于1992-2014年沪深两市全部A股上市公司的财务报表数据及股票收益数据,文章使用事件研究法与日历时间组合法,实证检验了零（低）杠杆公司的财务特征及股票长期收益情况。研究表明,我国A股市场中的零（低）杠杆现象呈现扩大化及增长趋势,且零（低）杠杆公司具有规模小、上市年限短、市账比高、投资水平低及盈利性好等共同特征。研究也发现相较非零（低）杠杆公司,连续三（五）年零（低）杠杆公司具有显著的长期超额收益,说明持续的极端财务保守政策对于股票收益具有重要的影响作用。     

Investing in Health: A Macroeconomic Exploration of Short-Run and Long-Run Trade-Offs

This paper aims to unravel the competing effects of health investment. It explores, both analytically and numerically, the equilibrium shift and transitional dynamics after a one-time policy of health investment. We find that such a policy improves health status in the long run, but harms economic growth in both the short- and long-term. The relative sizes of these competing effects depend on the specific health parameters. Within the plausible range for the value of health relative to consumption, households gain welfare in the long run as long as the effectiveness of labor in health production is large. The expanded health sector policy makes households worse off only if labor is rather unproductive in producing health and if households value health relatively little. Nevertheless, the findings challenge the policy recommendations of the World Bank (1993) and World Health Organization (2001) in that good health does not necessarily increase the productivity of workers and the economic growth rate. We hope that the relative simplicity of our model, compared to the existing theoretical literature, can help close the gap between formal academic work on this topic and actual debates among policy makers in both developed and developing countries.     

Tax Base Elasticities: A Multi-State Analysis of Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics

We examine the relative dynamic responses of state personal tax revenues and sales tax bases to changes in state personal income. Our econometric analysis, which includes separate analyses of long-run and short-run dynamics for each state, permits the estimation of asymmetric short-run responses depending upon the relationship between current and expected tax base growth. Results indicate that the average long-run elasticity for income taxes is more than double that for sales taxes. Most states have asymmetric short-run income elasticities, which are again greater for income taxes than for sales taxes. However, a joint analysis of long- and short-run dynamics reveals that neither tax is universally more volatile. After calculating state-specific income elasticities for both taxes, we employ cross-section regression techniques to explain the variation in elasticities across states. Several policy factors are found to be important, including elements of tax bases and rate structures.     

中央环保督察和企业进入:来自企业注册数据的证据

本文利用2013-2018年中国所有新建企业的注册信息,构建中国所有城市月度分行业的企业进入数据,并利用双重差分模型识别第一轮中央环保督察如何通过影响新企业进入进而影响中国的产业结构调整。结果表明,环保督察显著减少了民营、高污染行业的企业进入数量。此外,部分生产性服务业企业进入数量也受到环保督察的冲击。在督察组退出督察省份之后,其影响有随时间增强的趋势。环保督察促进了新建企业平均投资规模的增长,在一定程度上提高了行业集中度。考虑到环保督察政策常态化,本文有利于理解中央环保督察政策对产业的影响,并为环保督察政策的制度化和进一步完善提供依据。     

Population Growth and Economic Growth: Long-Run Evidence from Latin America

Unit root tests, the Johansen maximal likelihood methodology, and Granger causality tests in the context of a one-step error correction model are used to examine the long-run relation between population and per capita GDP in seven Latin American countries over most of the 20th century. The results suggest that no long-run relation has existed and, hence, population growth neither causes per capita GDP growth nor is caused by it.     

企业与市场的性质

企业与市场分别是人的权威共生和交换共生的生存结构。企业是市场结构的供方,企业等级严密,以命令和计划配置资源,市场是天然的平等结构,以价格配置资源,两者依生存成本的消生可相互转换,但市场不能完全替代企业,只能决定企业的规模和边界。