Investment and Uncertainty in the G7

Empirical work on uncertainty and investment generally focuses on one country or one indicator of uncertainty. We extend the literature by assessing the impact of a comprehensive range of potential sources of uncertainty on aggregate business investment across the G7 using Pooled Mean Group Estimation (PMGE) and GARCH methods to model uncertainty. A significant negative long-run effect from exchange rate volatility is found for the G7 and in poolable subgroups including all four larger EU countries. Volatility of long-term interest rates has additionally influenced investment in recent years. For most estimates, a one standard deviation rise in conditional volatility leads to a 2–4 per cent fall in investment although some samples give greater declines. The results suggest inter alia that EMU is beneficial to aggregate investment. JEL no. E22, F31     

不确定性风险对企业投资的影响机制分析——基于金融市场摩擦的间接渠道视角

现有研究表明,不确定性风险会通过直接渠道和间接渠道影响企业投资,但着重分析间接渠道的文献较少。文章以1994-2018年中国沪深A股上市公司的财务数据、股票交易数据和中国经济政策不确定性指数为样本,在控制住直接渠道的影响后,实证检验了不确定性风险如何通过金融市场摩擦机制间接影响微观企业的投资行为。研究发现：不确定性风险会通过金融市场摩擦机制来显著增加企业融资成本,降低企业融资数量;且金融市场摩擦机制间接降低企业投资的中介效应显著。在异质性企业的对比中,成本效应对所有企业的影响效果差异不大;而相对于低杠杆、国有化和大规模的企业,数量效应对高杠杆、民营和小规模等高风险企业的影响效果更大。这说明,成本效应和数量效应的影响是系统性的,但数量效应更具结构性特征。     

环境不确定性对企业研发投入的影响——基于内部控制的调节作用

以2013—2020年深沪两市的A股非金融业上市公司为研究样本，实证分析环境不确定性、内部控制对企业研发投入的影响。研究发现，环境不确定性对企业研发投入产生显著正向影响，内部控制作为调节变量仅能强化环境不确定性与企业研发人员投入之间的正向关系。在低环境不确定性情况下，内部控制发挥的调节作用更为显著；内部控制五要素中信息与沟通要素起关键性作用。最后基于实证研究结论对企业和政府提出相应建议。     

Investment and institutional uncertainty: A comparative study of different uncertainty measures

Investment and Institutional Uncertainty: A Comparative Study of Different Uncertainty Measures. — There is ample empirical evidence of a negative relationship between aspects of institutional uncertainty and investment. Most studies, however, do not allow a comparison between different dimensions of such uncertainty because they focus on specific indicators, particular regions or different periods. The paper concludes with an evaluation of the quantitative effects of the significant uncertainty indicators on investment finding that a lack of rule of law, high corruption, and volatility in real exchange rate distortions are the most detrimental for investment.     

环境不确定性、高管持股与创新投入

以2014—2018年A股上市公司为研究样本,通过多元回归分析实证检验环境不确定性与企业创新投入的关系及高管持股的调节作用.研究发现:环境不确定性与企业创新投入呈负相关关系,且高管持股会削弱二者关系.进一步研究表明,国有上市公司与非国有上市公司的环境不确定性与企业创新均呈负相关,高管持股在非国有企业会减弱二者的关系,在国有企业的调节作用不显著.     

企业金融化对双元创新的影响：经济政策不确定性的调节效应

选取2013—2020年中国上市公司数据,实证研究企业金融化程度对企业创新总投资及双元创新投资的影响,分析不同产权性质企业间的差异,并进一步探讨经济政策不确定性在其中的调节效应。研究发现中国企业的金融化程度会显著抑制创新研发投入,特别是探索式创新研发投入,且这种效应在非国有企业中表现得更显著,而经济政策的不确定性可以在一定程度上缓解这种抑制效应。研究结论对抑制企业“脱实向虚”现象、促进企业提高创新能力、贯彻实施创新驱动战略及促进经济的高质量发展提供一定的参考。     

Uncertainty and the arbitrage pricing theory

This paper tests the economic importance of income uncertainty in the context of a measured factor arbitrage pricing theory model. This provides a test of the importance of uncertainty using a different methodology and data set than are traditionally used. If income uncertainty affects the investment climate, a statistically significant risk premium will be associated with assets that are affected by uncertainty. The empirical work in this essay finds that a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity measure of income uncertainty is a priced factor in a model of the arbitrage pricing theory. The risk premium between a baa-rated 10-year corporate bond and a 10-year government bond, as well as the term structure, also are priced factors.     

经济政策不确定性与企业投资趋同行为

文章以2003-2017年A股非金融类上市公司为研究样本,考察经济政策不确定性对企业投资趋同行为的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性的升高会显著增强企业投资趋同行为,该影响效应在信息优势企业有所减弱,在资产不可逆程度较高企业有所增强。分行业检验发现,在管制性行业以及景气度较低行业中,经济政策不确定性对企业投资趋同行为的影响减弱。进一步研究发现,在经济政策不确定性不断攀升的背景下,实体投资趋同性会带来更为严重的金融化,特别是在行业实体投资总体趋于放缓的情况下,企业金融化现象更加严重。该研究为宏观经济波动下企业投资趋同行为提供了经验证据。     

MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND AGGREGATE PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper investigates the effects of time varying uncertainty on aggregate private fixed investment in South Africa. The GARCH generated measures of volatility of selected macroeconomic variables indicating five measures of uncertainty are used in the analysis. These are output growth uncertainty, uncertainty about changes in the real effective exchange rate, uncertainty about changes in the real interest rate, producer inflation uncertainty, and terms of trade uncertainty. The results of the estimation by an empirical ECM model of conventional investment determinants controlling for the effects of uncertainty indicated that, over all, time varying macroeconomic uncertainty significantly reduces private fixed investment.     

东道国不确定性与中国ODI二元边际:兼论营商环境的调节效应

关于不确定性对中国对外直接投资二元边际的影响,以往研究往往忽略了对外直接投资的结构特征。文章将东道国不确定性因素纳入异质性企业模型,分析了不确定性对中国ODI二元边际的影响机制,并运用2005~2017年中国企业对外直接投资数据,实证检验了东道国不确定性对中国对外直接投资二元边际的影响。研究结果表明:首先,东道国不确定性对中国对外直接投资的扩展边际具有显著的抑制作用,但是对集约边际的影响不显著;其次,不确定性对ODI扩展边际的抑制作用在金融危机后和在东道国不确定性大于中国的国家更明显;最后,引入营商环境因素研究发现,良好的营商环境对于东道国不确定性具有一定的正向调节效应。     

Is the uncertainty-investment link non-linear? Empirical evidence for developed economies

Is the Uncertainty-Investment Link Non-linear? Empirical Evidence for Developed Economies. — This paper examines whether the impact of uncertainty on aggregate investment differs for low and high values of uncertainty. I present two types of estimates on the impact of uncertainty, measured by the volatility of stock market returns, for a group of developed economies. First, I estimate investment models in which I include a linear and a quadratic term for uncertainty. Second, I estimate investment models in which uncertainty is a threshold variable. Both types of estimates provide evidence on the empirical relevance of a non-linear effect of uncertainty on investment.     

Economic policy uncertainty and firms' investment and financing decisions in China

This paper designs a quasi-natural experiment for the identification of causal relationships between economic policy uncertainty and firms' investment-financing decisions using China's supply-side structural reform in 2015. We construct measures of asset reversibility across industries using China's national input–output flow table and match them with nonfinancial firms listed in China's A-share stock market from 2013 to 2017. We then use the difference-in-difference estimation strategy to investigate two-dimensional variations in periods (i.e., before and after 2015) and asset reversibility (i.e., high- and low-reversibility industries). The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty significantly impedes real investment and reduces net debt issuance for private firms, whereas no such effects exist in state-owned firms. Interestingly, however, economic policy uncertainty has no significant impact on firms' cash-holding decisions.     

经济政策不确定性对中国OFDI的影响——基于中国对重要8国投资面板数据的分析

以2010—2019年中国对8个重要投资国的直接投资数据作为面板数据,根据引力模型,引入经济政策不确定性指数作为解释变量,探究经济政策不确定性对中国OFDI的影响。结果显示,东道国的经济政策不确定性将会抑制投资母国对该国的投资,而投资母国的经济政策不确定性则会促进母国对外直接投资。最后提出相适应的投资母国的建议。     

企业投资决策的实物期权方法

在现代市场经济条件下,传统的投资决策方法已经不能适应由于环境的不确定性而产生的动态投资管理的需要。在这种情况下,一种全新的投资决策分析工具即实物期权方法应运而生,在面对较大的环境不确定性时,实物期权方法则显得更为有效和科学。     

Chinese OFDI responses to the B&R initiative: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

Based on an exogenous quasi-natural experiment, combined with administrative data from International Trade Statistics and the China Global Investment Tracker database, this study uses a difference-in-differences approach to examine whether the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can help alleviate the negative effect of political risks in host countries on Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). The empirical findings are as follows. a) When controlling for firm-level and country-level variables and various fixed effects, high-level international political cooperation under the BRI can considerably increase Chinese OFDI. b) Political risks in host countries significantly reduce Chinese investment and increase losses, and the BRI mainly stimulates investment through mechanisms that seek to reduce policy uncertainty and political risks in host countries for Chinese firms. c) By further considering the gain (or loss) status of Chinese investment projects, the study shows that the BRI has a limited role in reducing investment losses. The study also performs a series of robustness tests to eliminate the influence of firm heterogeneity, informal political interference, and random effects. The overall results are consistent with those of the quasi-experiment.     

Indonesia's Investment Negative List: an evaluation for selected services sectors

In March 2007, Indonesia's parliament approved a landmark new law on investment. Law 25/2007 replaces separate laws on foreign and domestic investment from 1967 and 1968, and provides a single legislative framework for domestic and foreign investment. The law states that all business sectors are open to investment, including foreign investment, unless specified in a presidential regulation containing Indonesia's Investment Negative List (DNI). This paper summarises the results of four sector studies undertaken to review implementation of the investment law. The purpose of the DNI is to provide certainty to investors by documenting restrictions in a single list, thereby eliminating the power of ministries to set their own rules. This paper finds that, in practice, considerable uncertainty remains, arising particularly from the law's implementing regulations. Furthermore, new ministerial decrees and laws appear to bypass the list and may reflect a trend towards greater restriction of foreign investment in Indonesia.     

Long-term investment forecasting as the basis of the development strategy for the agroindustrial complex of the Northern region (by example of the Komi Republic)

The investment forecast in the strategic development of the agroindustrial complex of the Northern region using the Komi Republic as an example is considered. The prospects of the agroindustrial complex and its functioning peculiarities are analyzed. The multilevel classification characteristic of a long-term strategic development is determined. The estimated characteristic of the investment forecast of the strategic development of agribusiness with regard to the uncertainty of socioeconomic conditions is given. The assertion is substantiated that the long-term course of the investment activity guarantees solution of the complex problems of the long-term development of the agribusiness in the region.     

基于实物期权理论的城市钢铁企业投资决策研究

针对城市钢铁企业“搬不搬,何时搬”的问题,基于实物期权理论,考虑产品、原材料、燃料动力价格的不确定性,建立投资评价模型。应用最小二乘蒙特卡洛模拟求解,得到项目投资价值、盈利概率和投资时机。通过灵敏性分析,探讨产品、主要原材料价格变化对三个指标的影响。研究表明：项目有投资价值,立即投资,风险过高;产品价格漂移参数增加会显著提高投资价值,降低风险,推迟投资。     

INTEGRATED PRODUCTION AND THE INVESTMENT–UNCERTAINTY RELATIONSHIP

This paper studies the role of production mode in determining the effects of an increase in uncertainty on the choice of investment outlay. In a continuous-time model of optimal capital investment with innovative R&D under demand uncertainty, we show that investments in both capital and innovative research decrease with an increase in uncertainty, and that such investments rise with the level of primary demand. Our result sheds light on the mode of production as a source of the negative investment–uncertainty relationship.     

Role of China in the development of trade and FDI cooperation with BRICS countries

BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) over the next 50 years could become the driving force in the world economy. They have the huge joint potential and wide opportunities. Further growth of their economies requires creation of their closer partnership in trade and investments. China is playing the leading role in this process, as a main investor and importer of FDI (foreign direct investment) and trade partner in BRICS group. Trade and investment cooperation of BRICS countries is a new paradigm of the formation of their economic growth. This problem is important, but still insufficiently studied and not enough reflected in the economic researches. For the first time, author developed and tested the methodology of the determining the Intra-BRICS potential of trade and investment cooperation and getting the synergistic effect of the economic interaction of BRICS countries. Trade and investment cooperation of China with other BRICS countries exerts very strong impact on the development of their economies. China continue to deepen its economic ties with other BRICS countries and open up its financial market to serve as a cushion against rising global uncertainty. Development of Intra-BRICS trade and investment cooperation is very important in the context of trade war imposed by the USA against China.