The East Asian model of economic development

Unlike existing models of the rapid growth of the East Asian economies that are based on stylised facts, this paper formulates a model by introducing an all‐encompassing (core) variable that explains the unique path to success in East Asia. Using three propositions, the model explains the transition from a backward economy to an industrial economy. Central to the model is policy‐augmented human capital (PAHC)—human capital with a road map for development—led by a capable leader. The model is unique in that it validates the critical role of human capital in a time of ‘high development theory’ when the emphasis was skewed towards the accumulation of physical capital, and the role of government at a time when interventionist policies were either failing elsewhere (in the 1950s and 1960s) or facing opposition (in the 1970s and 1980s). The success of the East Asian model provides evidence pointing to a preference for economic development over democracy.     

Regionalism and East Asian economic integration

The wave of economic globalization moves to all the countries in the world to be integrated with multilateralism and by promotion of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization （GATT/WTO）. Meanwhile, the growth of regional economic integration has been one of the major developments in international economic relations, and undoubtedly regionalism is a part of the global economic environment. The objective of the paper is to review the trends and highlight the prospects for enhancing economic integration in East Asia. This paper has argued that the emerging East Asian economies have achieved sustained economic development and poverty reduction through domestic structural, institutional and governance reforms as well as through market-driven integration with the global and regional markets. Though this process was temporarily interrupted by the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998, the economies have pursued further liberalization and reforms, deepened economic integration through trade, FDI and finance, and regained dynamic growth. The author argues that the reasonable choice for Eastern Asian countries is to deepen their economic integration and the optimal strategy is fostering economic integration with institutional cooperation.     

A comparison of Latin American and African economic development with an East Asian twist

There are many parallels between the development of Latin America and Sub‐Saharan Africa. Recent literature on this is reviewed. It is argued in the paper that the key to long‐term development is the shift from inward (import substitution) to outward (export‐oriented) growth. This shift involves both tariff reduction and significant investment in infrastructure and human capital accumulation. Given that much of Latin America (historically) and Sub‐Saharan Africa (currently) has depended or depends on trade taxes for revenue, an outward orientation poses a significant fiscal problem, which makes it extremely difficult to switch to an export‐oriented growth path. East Asian experience points to the importance of broad‐based agricultural growth in making the fiscal transition.     

Economic research and economic growth: Evidence from East Asian economies

Based upon page counts of articles published in 60 quality economics journals, the role of economic research is examined for five East Asian economies. In Hong Kong, causality runs bi-directionally between research productivity and economic growth; in Japan, the causal effects tend to be one direction from economic growth to research publications; in Korea and Taiwan, causality runs the other way around from publications to growth; and in Singapore, the causal effects are small and insignificant. Socioeconomic differences in each economy help to explain the various causal directions found.     

The Russian Far East: Searching for a demographic development strategy

The paper analyzes the population dynamics in the Russian Far East, the economic, social and demographic factors of migration processes in the region; the consequences of migration for the social and economic development of the region, the situation in its labor market, etc.     

Foreign capital flows and economic growth in East Asian countries

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the effect of various types of capital flow on the growth process of the East Asian countries, including China. The empirical analysis was based on dynamic panel data and we found; first, that domestic savings contribute positively to long-term economic growth. Second, we confirmed that FDI is growth enhancing and that its impact is felt both in the short and long run. Additionally, FDI influence on growth is much higher than domestic savings. Third, short-term capital inflow has adverse effect on the long-term as well as short-term growth prospects and it appears to be sensitive to long-term capital inflows. Fourth, long-term debt has positive effect on growth but its effect does somewhat disappear in the long-term. By and large, the observed positive contribution of FDI in the growth process of East Asian economies is a robust finding. From policy perspective, the evidence convincingly suggests that countries that are successful in attracting FDI can finance more investments and grow faster than those that deter FDI.     

A search for robust East Asian development models after the financial crisis: mutual learning from East Asian experiences

The purpose of this paper is to search for new robust East Asian economic development models following the financial crisis. Specifically, this paper addresses both robustness and sustainability of Korea’s Chaebol-led model, Taiwan’s SMEs-led model, and Malaysia’s FDI-led model, respectively. East Asia’s new development paradigm can be reformulated not only by adopting and learning advanced financial innovations of global standards in the framework of Gershenkron’s “advantages of backwardness,” but also in the concept of “mutual learning” from both strengths and weaknesses of development models of the three countries. East Asia has neglected too long some inherent wisdoms that are contained in its “miracle models,” yet it shows that their different paths to development may lead to a positive policy convergence.     

Prospects for East Asian economic regionalism in the 21st century

It is not likely that East Asian states will regress to the mercantilist developmental state that used to engineer compressed economic growth. However, it is evident that the pattern of transformation East Asian states are undergoing, is not analogous to the path of Anglo‐American development Although the government refrains itself from arbitrarily supplying economic resources (especially financial resources in the form of subsidies or policy loans) to promote strategic industries, it does not give up commanding the market to attain a relatively higher economic growth. The relationship between the state and the market is still set up in a hierarchical fashion in favor of the former. The economic system to emerge in East Asia is the state‐governed rather than market‐centered, even if it has absorbed neo‐liberal condiments. The state‐dominant economic system of East Asia is expected to survive for a considerable period. In this regard, the establishment of a financial system to sustain the East Asian economic system has been strongly suggested. Here lies in the reason we discuss the rise of the East Asian economic identity in the post‐financial crisis era.     

积极应对人口老龄化——基于江苏省昆山市的调研

人口老龄化问题研究具有重要的现实意义和应用价值。本文以经济发达地区昆山为例,在厘清人口老龄化概念的基础上,分析昆山人口老龄化的基本现状及其应对选择,并尝试提出积极老龄化思想引领下的人口老龄化应对出路。     

An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries

Many recent studies about East Asian countries discussed “natural” economic integration through trade, but there are few rigorous empirical studies on how their economies were affected by the evolution of economic integration within the region. This paper investigates the effect of bilateral trade dependence on the co-movement of business cycles for 10 East Asian countries. We find that economic fluctuations tend to be more synchronized within the region as trade interdependence among them deepens. This finding suggests the necessity of cooperative efforts to prevent or adjust unfavorable future economic crisis in East Asia.     

Can the East Asian model of development be generalized?

Export-led growth has become increasingly popular among analysts (and some governments) as a development strategy. Besides contrasting its virtues to the distortions of the import substitution model popular through the 1960s, advocates of the model frequently illustrate its merits by pointing to the remarkable success of its most prominent practitioners, the East Asian ‘Gang of Four’ (Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan). This study explores a possible limitation of the model, known as the fallacy of composition: while the model may work well if pursued by a limited number of countries, it may break down if a large majority of developing countries seeks to pursue it at the same time, because the resulting outpouring of manufactured exports might be more than Western markets could absorb. Protectionist response might be the result of attempts to generalize the East Asian export model of growth.     

基于中国——东盟博览会的广西经济联动发展策略

随着经济全球化的发展和世界交流的融合,拥有“无烟工业”之称的会展经济,正越来越成为21世纪服务、贸易领域的新亮点。根据国家权威经济研究部门的研究结果,会展业将是我国未来十年最具发展潜力的十大产业之一。2003年10月8日,随着温家宝总理在印尼巴厘岛举行的第七次中国与东盟(10 1)领导人会议上的提议:“为促进双方商界合作,中方建议从2004年起每年在广西南宁举办中国-东盟博览会”,标志着广西迎来了一个世纪性的发展契机。机遇偏爱有准备的头脑。法国著名科学家巴斯德的这句哲理名言,对于今天的广西来说无疑更具启示性。中国经济发展的…     

Northeast Asian economic regionalism: A Korean view

State failure is more common than generally assumed and often has distinctly negative consequences that may manifest themselves in neighboring countries. For this reason, it has attracted considerable attention in academic and policy circles alike. The researchers exploring the phenomenon have followed a rather narrow path, however, and there is substantial scope to broaden the breadth of inquiry. While the analytical efforts over the past decade to come to grips with the phenomenon of state failure have borne fruit in terms of identifying the key independent variables, the understanding of the mechanism through which they exert their influence on the dependent variable has not been significantly enhanced. The assertion is particularly valid with respect to adverse and abrupt regime transitions. The purpose of this paper is to examine, in light of the author's experience in grappling with state failure in the Chinese context, the potential for systematically expanding the research agenda in a conceptual/theoretical direction.     

21世纪东亚区域经济合作组织建立的构想

21世纪东亚区域经济合作组织构想的建立是在世界经济发展呈现出的新趋势下产生的。文章就东亚区域经济合作组织建立的意义和影响因素作了详尽的分析，认为首先应加强三大次区域的经济合作，其次应在双边合作与小区域合作的基础上进行，最后在东盟“10 3”自由贸易区的基础上形成“东盟共同体”。作者还对东亚区域经济合作组织建立的宗旨、原则和运作机制作了探讨。