Single-equation,multiple-regression methodology: Is it an appropriate methodology for the estimation of the structure-performance relationship in banking?

Tests of the structure-performance paradigm of the industrial organization literature have been carried out almost exclusively using a single-equation, multiple-regression methodology. The purpose of this paper is to suggest that where the firms being considered are multiple product in nature and may pursue objectives in addition to maximizing the value of the firm, such a methodology may be inappropriate. The results presented in this paper suggest that the absence of a consistently strong, positive, and statistically significant relationship between market concentration and bank profitability may be traced in part to such an inappropriate methodology.     

Quango reform: the next steps?

The coalition government elected in 2010 in the UK pursued a programme of quango reform focused on reducing the number and expenditure of arm’s-length bodies, increasing transparency, improving accountability and maximizing efficiency and effectiveness. This paper revisits Flinders and Skelcher’s 2012 Flinders, M. and Skelcher, C. (2012), Shrinking the quango state: five challenges in reforming quangos. Public Money &; Management, 32, 5, pp. 327–334.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] PMM paper ‘Shrinking the quango state: five challenges in reforming quangos’ to assess progress to date and consider future challenges. Drawing insights from the UK programme of quango reform, as well as similar developments in Ireland, the authors identify five new challenges for governments: regulating, managing, reconciling, co-ordinating and reflecting.     

Is there an Olympic gold medal rush in the stock market?

Investor sentiment and attention are often linked to the same non-economic events making it difficult to understand why and how asset prices are affected. We disentangle these two potential drivers of investment behaviour by analysing a new data-set of medals for the major participating countries and sponsor firms over four Summer Olympic Games. Our results show that trading volume and volatility are substantially reduced following Olympic success although returns appear to be largely unaffected. Analysis of data from online search volumes and surveys measuring investor sentiment also suggests that the market impact of the Olympics is linked to changes in attention.     

Persistent public management reform: an egregore of liberal authoritarianism?

This paper explores how we may better understand public administration and public sector management reform. We often interpret our world through stories and this allows us to mentally map where we have been and where we are going to. The paper explores developments in understanding public awareness and that of policy-makers and its impact on policy. It uses the financial crisis and reforms implemented 10 years on to illustrate the points and explore the use of the term ‘egregore’ as a tool for understanding change. A mature free economy requires a strong state to balance deregulation for economic growth with regulation for the public good, necessitating improved policy capacity and good governance. It also needs public administrations staffed with competent, honest officials skilled in the art of statehood. The story of the financial crisis, and how we got there, conveys how to avoid future dangers.     

Is it the weather?

We show that results in the recent strand of the literature, which tries to explain stock returns by weather induced mood shifts of investors, might be data-driven inference. More specifically, we consider two recent studies [Kamstra, Mark J., Kramer, Lisa A., Levi, Maurice D., 2003a. Winter blues: A SAD stock market cycle. American Economic Review 93(1), 324–343; Cao, Melanie, Wei, Jason, 2005. Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly. Journal of Banking and Finance 29(6), 1559–1573] that claim that a seasonal anomaly in stock returns is caused by mood changes of investors due to lack of daylight and temperature variations, respectively. While we confirm earlier results in the literature that there is indeed a strong seasonal effect in stock returns in many countries: stock market returns tend to be significantly lower during summer and fall months than during winter and spring months as documented by Bouman and Jacobsen [Bouman, Sven, Jacobsen, Ben, 2002. The Halloween indicator, Sell in May and go away: Another puzzle. American Economic Review, 92(5), 1618–1635], there is little evidence in favor of a SAD or temperature explanation. In fact, we find that a simple winter/summer dummy best describes this seasonality. Our results suggest that without any further evidence the correlation between weather-related variables and stock returns might be spurious and the conclusion that weather affects stock returns through mood changes of investors is premature.     

Human error in high hazard systems: Do we treat the problem in an appropriate way?

This article addresses the problem of human error within a technical environment. A model of a human-machine interface is presented to illustrate the work situation in an open perspective. The term human error is defined and briefly discussed. A general framework for controlling human error is presented with proactive and reactive approaches. Some well-known methods of human reliability assessment are discussed and the general limitations of the methods are elaborated. The reactive approaches are compared with proactive approaches, and the term 'safety culture' is elucidated. The importance of high reliability organizations to serve as model companies for other organizations is briefly discussed.     

Does privatization reform alleviate ownership discrimination? Evidence from the Split-share structure reform in China

This paper investigates the institutional origins of ownership discrimination in bank lending through a staggered quasi-natural experiment: China's Split-share Structure Reform. State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) have an advantage over non-SOEs in securing external financing to protect investment opportunities from cash flow fluctuations. This financing privilege declined significantly after the reform, which mandatorily converted SOEs' non-tradable state-owned shares into tradable shares, sharply increasing the likelihood of further privatization. Consistent evidence also exists in terms of bank lending behaviors. Further, we show both direct and indirect evidence that the effects were more pronounced among SOEs under higher threats of privatization (e.g., firms with larger increases in tradable shares, smaller workforce, and in industries peripheral to national strategy). The evidence suggests that banks proactively prefer SOEs for the perceived safety of loans under implicit government guarantee; when this privilege disappeared after the reform, banks reacted by allocating credits more fairly. This paper provides new evidence on the bright side of share structure reforms in mitigating credit misallocation and enlightens policy makers to practical resolutions to the financing inefficiency in emerging capital markets.     

Investor preferences and portfolio selection: is diversification an appropriate strategy?

This paper analyzes the relationship between diversification and several distributional characteristics that have risk implications for stock returns. We develop a flexible three-parameter distribution to model the stock returns. Using data on the current 30 DJIA stocks, we show that an investor's strategy on diversification depends on the measures of risk for particular concerns. For example, investors who desire to increase positive skewness would hold a less diversified portfolio, while those who care more about extreme losses would hold a more diversified portfolio. Experimenting with a more general pool of stocks yields the same conclusions.     

Accounting curriculum reform? The devil is in the detail

Chabrak and Craig's paper (2013) draws on a number of assumptions that require qualification. In particular, I focus on the following aspects: (i) purpose of reform, (ii) faculty, (iii) students, (iv) degree in management/accounting, and (v) educational materials. In retrospect, calls for the reform of the accounting curriculum have been rather unsuccessful. Therefore rather than waiting for the implementation of some “grand” reform, I encourage an individual approach to this important issue. In this regard, the commentary concludes with some specific suggestions to instill critical thinking in accounting students.     

Is it the weather? Response

Kamstra, Kramer and Levi (KKL) in their comment seem to miss the main point of our paper. Many things are correlated with the seasons so it is difficult to distinguish between them when we try to explain the well-known summer winter pattern in stock returns. Finding an isolated seasonal affective disorder (SAD) effect without proper control variables does not disprove our point but strengthens it. To sidestep all of the issues they raise and take our point to the extreme, we show using plain vanilla regressions that the seasonal stock market pattern they attribute to SAD can also be “explained” by variables like ice cream consumption or airline travel. The new variations of SAD variables (“onset” and “incidence”) KKL propose in their recent work for North America are even more problematic than the original SAD variables. We find that these new SAD proxies are not significant in countries where according to KKL they should be: Canada and the United States.     

Is liquidity the missing link?

Durand et al. (2006a ) argue that the Australian market is both internationally integrated and domestically segmented. They find that the US‐based three‐factor model captures returns of the largest stocks in Australia (evidence of international integration), but that it is unable to account for the returns of the smallest stocks (evidence of domestic segmentation). This study resolves the puzzle left by Durand et al. (2006a) . Incorporating a liquidity factor provides the missing link in their analysis: it results in a model that permits both the international integration of the largest stocks and the model can account for the returns of the smallest stocks. Our analysis highlights the important role of liquidity in Australian asset pricing.     

Is the presidential premium spurious?

A hotly debated question in finance is whether the higher stock returns under Democratic presidencies relative to Republican presidencies represent abnormal return, risk premium, or mere statistical fluke. This paper investigates whether this presidential premium is due to spurious-regression bias, data mining, or economic policy uncertainty. Decomposing the presidential premium into expected and unexpected components, we find that over two-thirds of the premium is unexpected, which is inconsistent with the spurious regression bias explanation. The presidential premium is not explained by data mining given that it persists in the post-publication period, and remains robust even if we purge returns of their covariation with economic policy uncertainty.     

Is it the weather? Comment

This comment discusses some errors in a recent paper by Jacobsen and Marquering [Jacobsen, B., Marquering, W., 2008. Is it the weather? Journal of Banking and Finance 32 (4), 526–540], in which the authors challenge our previous finding that stock market returns exhibit seasonal patterns consistent with the influence of seasonal affective disorder on investor risk aversion. We find that we cannot replicate the authors’ findings, even after corresponding with them. Furthermore, we document several problems with their methodology, including misspecification of their economic model, misspecification of their econometric model, and use of inappropriate data. While we agree that seasonal affective disorder is not an explanation for all variation in equity markets, we do maintain that careful analysis leads to economically and statistically significant evidence of the effect we originally documented.     

Is there Information in an Earnings Announcement Delay?

Using a sample of announcements drawn from the 1980s and early 1990s, we reassess the relation between earnings news and earnings announcement timing. Using analyst forecast errors to proxy for news, we find that early announcements are associated with good news relative to late announcements. The relation between news and timing, however, does not appear to be strictly monotonic. Furthermore, we find that unexpected earnings explain 4% or less of the variation in timing. Finally, we assess whether abnormal returns behave in a manner that is consistent with a good news early, bad news late relation.     

Without the denominator where is the quality improvement paradigm in the nation's health care reform?

This paper will argue that there is room for improvement in the quality of health care delivered in the United States. A quality improvement paradigm requires an assessment, inventory and prioritization of areas for improvement. It further nurtures the imperative of process improvement for the achievement of a targeted outcome. The dual obligations of reduction in outcome variability, and resource management, provide an exciting milieu for the integration of clinical practice, the numerator, with population based medicine, the denominator.     

Is the Renminbi a safe haven?

We investigate the relationship between market uncertainty and the relative value of the Renminbi in the offshore market against currencies that the safe haven literature typically considers as the traditional safe haven currency candidates. Our sample spans the February 2011 to May 2017 period. Band spectral regression models enable us to capture that the relationship between market uncertainty and the relative value of the Renminbi is frequency dependent. While we find evidence of some degree of safe haven currency behavior of the Renminbi during the early part of our sample, our findings do not support the suggestion that the Renminbi is currently a safe haven currency or that the Renminbi is progressing towards safe haven currency status.     

Is the effect of industry expertise on audit pricing an office-level or a partner-level phenomenon?

Several studies report an audit fee premium for auditor industry expertise measured at the office level. We extend this line of research by examining whether there is a fee premium for auditor industry expertise measured at the partner level. Using Australian data, we show that the coefficient for partner-level industry expertise is highly significant and economically important. This is consistent with industry knowledge or expertise residing in the human capital of individual engagement partners. Inconsistent with prior research, we show that there is no auditor industry expertise fee premium at the audit office level when partner-level expertise is controlled for. Consistent with prior research, we find little evidence of a fee premium at the national level. The results suggest that the auditor industry expertise fee premium is mainly a partner-level phenomenon, casting doubt on the belief that industry knowledge or expertise is distributed across engagement partners within an audit office.