中国科技评价研究演进脉络与特征——建国70年来相关研究文本分析

以2 698篇中国科技评价研究相关文献作为分析样本，运用共词聚类分析法和社会网络分析法，构建不同研究阶段高频关键词谱系图和共词网络，探究不同研究阶段主题内容和变化趋势。总体而言，研究主题共性与差异并存；评价原则与导向发生了重大转折；评价主体较为单一；评价对象范围不断扩大，分类评价成为新趋势；评价方法日趋多样化；研究关联度和相互渗透性有所增强。在此基础之上，研究发现既有文献在科技评价主体、客体、指标体系构建、评价方法等层面尚存在一些局限性和空白。     

外来者劣势研究脉络与展望：基于CiteSpace的分析

外来者劣势是国际商务研究中的一个重要议题。既有综述类文献不仅时间偏早且多为主观定性分析,随着研究的不断深入,特别是近年来国内文献迅速增加,有必要对现有研究进行再梳理。为弥补定性分析的不足,运用CiteSpace分析软件,以2008—2020年中英文文献为样本,从发文量、国家、期刊、机构、作者、关键词等方面,对外来者劣势研究现状进行可视化对比分析,并通过构建基于理论演进的研究框架,结合高频和突现关键词,揭示外来者劣势的研究热点和趋势。研究发现,国内研究起步晚且仍需深化;国内机构间与学者间尚未形成紧密合作关系;个人层面研究有待拓展;新兴经济体的相应研究值得关注;研究方法和测量指标尚需优化。     

责任式创新研究的时空向度透视与知识框架建构

在科技社会深度融合发展的背景下，聚焦责任式创新，以2009―2020年WOS和CNKI数据库中879篇文献为样本，综合运用文献计量分析、因子分析和多维尺度分析，从时间和空间视角探索责任式创新研究的外部特征、热点内容、前沿趋势，并构建该领域知识框架。研究结果表明：①近12年国内外研究发文量总体呈上升趋势，但国内研究热度较低且尚处于初始阶段，国外科研合作网络紧密，积极推动该领域研究发展，同时该领域研究呈现跨学科特征，并逐渐形成学科交叉下的知识流动路径；②研究热点可分为4个方面，即内涵及理论框架构建研究，责任式创新与利益相关者参与研究，责任式创新跨界结合研究，责任式创新方法、实践及评估研究，研究前沿趋势可分为3个方面，即责任式创新与伦理规范研究、责任式创新与新兴技术治理研究、责任式创新的社会嵌入与政治议程研究；③基于因子分析和多维尺度分析，构建责任式创新的“情境―理论内涵―干预―机制―结果”CTIMO知识框架。最后，从责任式创新的制度情境、实践及扩散、利益相关者管理、组织层面评估等方面提出未来研究展望。     

长江经济带研究文献计量可视化分析

长江经济带建设已经上升为国家战略,长江经济带的研究也受到学界广泛关注。基于1992-2019年间“中国知网”收录的1308篇长江经济带核心期刊研究论文,利用科学图谱计量工具分别进行期刊来源、作者网络、研究机构网络、关键词聚类、突现词分析,发现关键词聚类有西部大开发、开放开发、协调发展、经济增长、一带一路、耦合协调度、探索性空间数据分析、新常态、联动发展、绿色发展、长江经济带战略、交通运输体系等12个。借助于突现词分析,结合长江经济带研究的雏形期、蓬勃期、回落期、热潮期四个阶段进行文献研究脉络与主题的整理。最后基于现有研究文献从长江经济带的区域创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五个方面提出未来研究的展望。     

基于社会感知分析的新兴技术发展趋势研究

如何尽早捕捉有颠覆性潜力的新兴技术发展趋势,对企业研发投资决策和政府研发战略决策具有重要参考价值。针对论文文献和专利数据研究新兴技术发展趋势的局限性,提出基于社会感知分析的新兴技术发展趋势研究模型。首先,利用基于关键词语义关联与语义主题分析的数据挖掘方法对新兴技术感知信息进行有效萃取和分析;其次,通过对新兴技术社会感知的可视化与知识发现,分析新兴技术发展趋势;最后,以钙钛矿太阳能电池技术为案例进行研究,验证社会感知分析在揭示新兴技术发展趋势方面的可行性和有效性,为新兴技术发展趋势研究提供新视角。     

An analysis of the intellectual structure of the cloud patents of SaaS

In this study, we reveal and analyse the hitherto implicit intellectual structure of cloud computing by using the methods of patent clustering and co-word clustering, respectively. In order to enhance the quality of patent clustering, we conduct the Taguchi method, which uses the E–I index as the quality characteristic, to investigate three influential factors to the quality, including the cut-off value for dichotomisation, the number of terms, and the sparsity. In co-word clustering analysis, this study demonstrates how the utilisation of the proposed modified co-word analysis method, factor analysis, multidimensional scaling analysis, and network analysis can efficiently explore the relation between R&D themes and competition between companies. This study reveals the knowledge networks in the area of Software as a Service (SaaS), thereby helping academia and practitioners to reach a richer understanding of the up-to-date studies.     

2000年以来棕地可持续再开发研究进展——基于可视化文献计量分析

棕地是可持续土地管理的潜在资源，棕地可持续再开发对改进城市环境和振兴经济具有积极影响。以棕地再开发的规划设计类文献为研究对象，基于Web of Science和CNKI数据库中“棕地”主题的论文统计，通过文献增长趋势对比和论文研究方向分布的分析，阐明棕地再开发在中国逐渐受到关注的现状，进一步根据“棕地再开发”的论文搜索结果进行主题、关键词和引文的共词网络分析和聚类分析，计量分析得出2个研究热点，分别是“棕地时空特点研究”和“棕地再开发分类和评价研究”。在未来相关研究中建议，利用地理信息系统收集整理棕地信息，并逐步建立数据库；加强棕地再开发效率上的研究，依据动态数据精细研究结果；完善棕地再利用评估决策体系和决策水平。     

定性定量结合的分析方法——共词分析法

复杂科学管理的方法论是定性定量结合的方法论。作为定性与定量分析相结合的研究方法,共词分析法是复杂科学管理倡导的重要方法之一。本文首先阐述了共词分析法的基本原理、发展历程和主要运用领域,总结了运用共词分析法的4个关键操作步骤。在此基础上,以国外的知识管理研究为例,运用共词分析法发现了国外知识管理研究的9类知识结构、3个理论基础和两个大研究纬度,揭示了知识管理研究中存在的二元对立范式。最后,指出了在复杂科学管理理念下共词分析法的发展前景。     

Innovation forecasting: A case study of the management of engineering and technology literature

The following paper contributes to the methodology of innovation forecasting. The paper analyzes the literature of engineering and technology management. A brief history and justification for interest in engineering and technology management is presented. The field has a sixty year history of interdisciplinary, and is therefore a ripe source for closer investigation into time trends of knowledge. The paper reviews the literature of innovation forecasting, examining a range of theoretical and methodological literatures interested in the evolution of knowledge. A new application of a model, suitable for sparse and count-like publication data, is presented. A mathematical presentation of the model is offered. A discussion is offered on how the model may be implemented in an approachable way within spreadsheet software. A time history of engineering management literature is extracted from a database and analyzed using the model. A projection of keyword growth is offered, and key features of the emerging knowledge base within engineering management are discussed. Recommendations for future research, as well as for those monitoring the status of the discipline of engineering management, are made.     

Export sophistication and the terms of trade of the developing and emerging countries

The question of the terms of trade has not yet been studied by the new empirical literature on the export sophistication, which focuses only on its effect on economic growth. The contribution of this paper is to investigate whether the increase in the export sophistication is terms of trade worsening or improving for the developing and emerging economies. Importantly, we find that the increase in the sophistication of the developing countries’ exports is accompanied by a deterioration of their terms of trade.     

产业视角下国内外数字化转型研究：综述及展望

随着数字化浪潮席卷全球,数字化转型已日益成为重点关注领域和热点话题,但鲜见基于产业视角的国内外数字化转型对比研究。基于战略一致性理论和动态能力理论,借助VOSviewer文献计量分析软件,对国内外数字化转型研究主题进行系统分析,探析国内外研究主题及关注领域异同点。结果表明,基于产业视角,国外侧重于疫情影响主题研究,而国内对媒体出版主题研究较多,创新和战略成为中外共同关注主题。结合产业视角下的国内外研究现状,针对数字化转型研究空白,从应用、商业、法规、数据和合作领域,绘制出产业视角下数字化转型研究的5条路径,并对未来研究和国家产业政策导向进行展望。     

Budget deficits and interest rates: a fresh perspective

We extend the literature on budget deficits and interest rates in three ways: we examine both advanced and emerging economies and for the first time a large emerging market panel; explore interactions to explain some of the heterogeneity in the literature; and apply system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). There is overall a highly significant positive effect of budget deficits on interest rates, but the effect depends on interaction terms and is only significant under one of the several conditions: deficits are high, mostly domestically financed, or interact with high domestic debt; financial openness is low; interest rates are liberalized; or financial depth is low.     

The impact of mean reversion model on portfolio investment strategies: Empirical evidence from emerging markets

Investors use mean reversion model to make decisions on which stocks should be taken in their portfolios according to their mean values. The first goal of the paper is to test the validity of the mean reversion model in emerging markets. Second, it aims to determine the best portfolio investment strategy on the validity of the mean reversion model. As a result of panel regression analysis, we find that the mean reversion model is valid in all of the emerging countries in the sample. This result implies that emerging markets are not efficient even in weak form. On the validity of the mean reversion model, we find that Max3–Min3 portfolio has recorded the best performance and contrarian portfolio is the best portfolio investment strategy. The paper makes contribution to the literature in terms of providing the information about which portfolio investment strategy has the best performance on the validity of the mean reversion model.     

西方可持续性经济学研究的主要理论问题及其评价

可持续性经济学是20世纪60年代以来在西方经济学界逐渐形成并发展起来的一门新兴的、交叉型和应用型经济学科。尽管西方经济学界对可持续性经济学从概念、特征、研究范畴、研究方法和制度背景等诸多方面并没有形成一个统一而明确的认识,但可持续性经济学的有关理论已成为可持续发展实践的基础和重要指导。通过对西方可持续性经济学研究的主要理论问题进行梳理与评价,一方面可以揭示西方在该学科领域一些关键理论问题上的研究进展,另一方面也为我国构建具有中国特色、适合中国国情的可持续性经济学的理论和实践提供借鉴。     

创新驱动下我国R&D研究演化及热点主题分析

无论是创新驱动战略实施还是科技创新能力提升都离不开R&D,通过R&D研究演化发现热点主题,可为后续研究提供参考借鉴。通过对我国1998-2018年以R&D为主题的文献进行梳理,借助文献计量学方法,运用信息可视化分析工具,对文献的关键词共现密度、关键词共现聚类和突变词等信息进行可视化图谱分析,研究R&D文献演化过程及热点主题。研究发现,20年来我国以R&D为主题的文献研究沿着“宏观面—微观面—宏观面”演化推进,并且政府补贴、融资约束、战略性新兴产业及创新效率与R&D的关系分析成为当前研究热点。     

Patent keyword network analysis for improving technology development efficiency

The methods of patent analysis are largely divided into network-based patent analysis and keyword-based morphological patent analysis. Both methods have their shortcomings: internal patent information composed of natural languages cannot be analyzed in the network-based patent analysis method, and the correlation between patents cannot be analyzed in the keyword-based morphological patent analysis method. In this research, we analyze the patents of Light Emitting Diode (LED) and wireless broadband fields via a method that incorporates both the network-based patent analysis and the keyword-based patent analysis methods. And by using network indices, we identify the characteristics of the patent keyword network, and also perform a trend analysis to discover how keywords play a significant role in network changes over time. The analysis results indicate that the patent keyword network is sporadic but clustered and shows a clear power law distribution. Further, the inflow keywords are highly likely to tie new connections with other keywords in the existing associated communities. Also, we confirm the fact that, as time passes, the top core keywords of a particular technology field continue to play an important role in the network and that also the rate of technological changes in wireless broadband field is faster than that of LED. Through the proposed analysis, researchers can easily grasp what technology keywords are important in the specific technology field and identify the relations between the essential technology elements; furthermore, this information can be utilized for developing new technologies by combining these technology elements extracted from community analysis.     

New models of trader beliefs and their application for explaining financial bubbles

One challenging and exigent problem in behavior finance is how to establish verifiable models describing the appearance and burst of price bubbles. Current results are enhanced in this paper through a series of improvement as follows: new models are proposed for describing the return and dividend processes, especially the trader's behavior with the adaptive expectation belief and the bounded rational expectation belief, respectively; with these models, we establish dynamical systems in terms of the price-to-earnings ratio and the forecast-to-earnings ratio; the detailed solution and asymptotic analysis of these equations provide new, elaborate and quantitative explanations for both the formation and disappearance of different price bubbles; inspired by the herd behavior framework, a new random belief evolutionary mechanism is devised to model the belief change between two beliefs; a specific genetic algorithm is designed to efficiently estimate model parameters; simulation and empirical studies are carried out to illustrate the application of new methods. Both theoretical and empirical results sufficiently show the reasonability, practicality, efficiency and robustness of our new models and methods for properly explaining the appearance and burst of different kinds of price bubbles.     

Beyond Myths,Lies and Stereotypes: The Political Economy of a ‘New Scramble for Africa’

Commentators across the political spectrum have increasingly drawn attention to a ‘new scramble for Africa’. This ‘new scramble’ marks the latest chapter of imperialist engagement, with not only Western states and corporations but also those of ‘emerging economies’ seeking to consolidate their access to African resources and markets. The ‘new scramble for Africa’ involves therefore significant transformations related to shifts in global politico-economic power. However, as this article elaborates, much of the burgeoning literature on the ‘new scramble for Africa’ is premised upon problematic substantive, theoretical and ontological claims and debates. In particular, the article seeks to challenge two commonplace and related narratives. Firstly, the highly questionable representations of the scale and perceived threat of emerging powers' (particularly China's) involvement in Africa, in contrast to the silences, hypocrisy and paternalistic representation of the historical role of the West. Second, and relatedly, debate and analysis are framed predominantly within an ahistoric statist framework of analysis, particularly that of inter-state rivalry between China and other ‘emerging’ states vs. Western powers. Absent or neglected in such accounts are profound changes in the global political economy within which the ‘new scramble for Africa’ is to be more adequately located.     

基于知识图谱的社科领域新能源汽车研究综述

社科领域新能源汽车的研究有助于促进新能源汽车产业的快速发展。本文以中国知网数据库和Web of Science核心集数据库收录的社科领域中有关新能源汽车研究的542条文献记录作为样本,基于CiteSpace 5.3软件进行分析,得出发文机构、时空分布、期刊分布和研究主题等知识图谱,进而分析社科领域的新能源汽车研究的核心力量以及近18年来研究脉络的演变趋势。研究表明:社科领域新能源汽车研究中,中国和美国处于领先地位;早期研究主要侧重于新兴产业的发展,中期研究主要侧重于财税政策和市场扩散,目前的研究主要从创新驱动、生态系统、基础设施规划与建设、关键技术突破、市场扩散等方面。     

Patent text mining and informetric-based patent technology morphological analysis: an empirical study

Patent technology morphological analysis utilises the advantages of both patent information analysis and morphological analysis to provide more detailed information on current and future patent technology. Current patent technology morphological analysis methods are largely reliant on manual expertise in the construction of morphological boxes with few approaches to the evaluation of future morphological configurations. We developed a patent text mining and informetric-based patent technology morphological analysis technique. We defined the basic parameters of the morphological box as the factors in factor analysis, with a patent keywords matrix, and the clusters in clustering analysis with factor scores. Patent citation, year of patent registration, keyword frequency, and contributing factors were used to evaluate future morphological configurations. We used an empirical study of liquid crystal display wide viewing angle patents to validate our method. The Thomson Reuters Derwent Innovation Index was used to collect patent text datasets. Our study indicates that this method is feasible for the implementation of patent technology morphological analysis. Our method provides advantages in terms of cost and time reductions during morphological box construction and more flexible methods for evaluating morphological configurations. We discuss problems and possible development of our method in the last section.