Empirical Regularities of Financial Market Volatility and Good Modelling Process: Developing Countries’ Exchange Rate Markets Perspective

A survey of contemporary literature suggests that empirical studies on developing economies are few or almost non-existent. Engle and Patton (2001, What good is a volatility model. Quantitative Finance, 1, 237–245) as well as Poon (2005, A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility. New Jersey: Wiley.) suggest that a good volatility model is one that utilizes the empirical regularities of financial market volatility (of which most were observed on industrialized economies markets). This paper uses exchange rate series from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania to show that;

1. they are not different from other financial markets as they exhibit most of the empirical regularities including volatility sign asymmetry, non-normal distribution and volatility clustering. It is however observed that the three exchange rate series are very volatile, with induced volatile shocks highly persistent and asymmetric, and extreme prices commonplace;

2. the ARCH technique (which has been well documented to capture these empirical regularities and produce good forecasts) generally produced a good fit to the three exchange rate series when compared with volatility forecasts generated using the EWMA technique. In the simple analysis of a day-ahead volatility forecast abilities of estimated models, it was observed that best fit does not necessarily ensure best forecast.

     

Developing Countries’ Net-migration: The Impact of Economic Opportunities,Disasters, Conflicts,and Political Instability

We provide regressions for the net immigration flows of developing countries. We show that (i) savings finance emigration and worker remittances serve to make staying rather than migrating possible; (ii) lagged dependent migration flows have a negative sign in the presence of migration stock variables; (iii) stocks of migrants in six OECD countries and in the developing countries have non-linear effects. Some of the non-linear effects of the economic variables vanish if indicators for disasters, conflicts and political instability are taken into account but new ones come in for these latter variables.     

Beyond Myths,Lies and Stereotypes: The Political Economy of a ‘New Scramble for Africa’

Commentators across the political spectrum have increasingly drawn attention to a ‘new scramble for Africa’. This ‘new scramble’ marks the latest chapter of imperialist engagement, with not only Western states and corporations but also those of ‘emerging economies’ seeking to consolidate their access to African resources and markets. The ‘new scramble for Africa’ involves therefore significant transformations related to shifts in global politico-economic power. However, as this article elaborates, much of the burgeoning literature on the ‘new scramble for Africa’ is premised upon problematic substantive, theoretical and ontological claims and debates. In particular, the article seeks to challenge two commonplace and related narratives. Firstly, the highly questionable representations of the scale and perceived threat of emerging powers' (particularly China's) involvement in Africa, in contrast to the silences, hypocrisy and paternalistic representation of the historical role of the West. Second, and relatedly, debate and analysis are framed predominantly within an ahistoric statist framework of analysis, particularly that of inter-state rivalry between China and other ‘emerging’ states vs. Western powers. Absent or neglected in such accounts are profound changes in the global political economy within which the ‘new scramble for Africa’ is to be more adequately located.     

The Political Economy of Monetary Institutions in Brazil: The Limits of the Inflation-targeting Strategy, 1999–2005

Abstract

This paper suggests that the time-inconsistency approach is inadequate to analyze the political economy of monetary policy in Brazil. The paper develops an alternative theory that emphasizes distributive conflict, and argues that building credibility with a fixed exchange rate and through inflation-targeting was not central for stabilization. A contested-terrain analysis of the Brazilian case suggests that the current monetary regime benefits financial or rentier interests while the manufacturing sector and workers bear the costs of this policy.     

The Political Economy of Policy Reform in the Philippines: 1992–1998

Accurately measuring Turkey's informal sector is important for policymaking. We utilize household income‐expenditure surveys to examine this sector's income underreporting. The Pissarides‐Weber approach hypothesizes that data would reflect such underreporting as “excess food consumption”. Our results suggest informal sector members spend more than their formal sector counterparts with comparable reported income levels. Using this information, we estimate the average size of the true informal sector to be about 1.25 times the official estimate. The informal sector accounts for around 83% of officially reported disposable income. Therefore, true Turkish disposable income is (25%)?(83%), roughly 21% larger than the officially estimated magnitude.     

From Hero to Zero? The Role of the Euro in the Current Crisis: Theory and some Empirical Evidence

A simple theoretical model of monetary unification and data from 11 euro members are used to investigate the common currency’s role in the macroeconomic performance of these countries. Euro membership has been typically accompanied by lower (or steady) inflation, but also by higher business-cycle volatility. In addition, synchronization of cyclical output was substantially affected by the common currency only in Greece (where it declined considerably) and Finland and Ireland (where it increased). Consistent with the theoretical predictions, the empirical evidence shows a strong negative relationship between cyclical synchronizations and volatilities, which however is not much stronger under the euro than it was during the Maastricht period.     

The Impact of Treasury Yields on US Presidential Approval, 1960–2010

ABSTRACT

The ‘power of bond markets’ is a widely assumed and poorly understood feature of the global economy. We demonstrate that even in a bond market as stable as the United States this influence is considerable. In this article, we scrutinise a particularly direct influence, the impact of US Treasury yields on presidential approval rates. Our empirical analysis from 1961 to 2010 demonstrates that rising/falling bond yields lead to a decline/increase in approval rates. We show that this impact is mediated via the US mortgage market. The stronger the rise in mortgage rates, the stronger the influence of Treasury yields on presidential approval. We then outline the broader possible political impacts of this, particularly given foreign and domestic central bank ownership of US Treasuries.     

The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate Determination for a “Petrocurrency”: The Case of Norwegian Krone

This paper, by following vector error correction modeling, empirically investigates some of the popular monetary models of the NOK/USD rate. The empirical results suggest that there is some scope for the monetary approach to explain the development of the NOK/USD during the period from 1997 to 2008. The coefficients in the co-integration equation of both money and output differentials are statistically significant and consistent with any of the forms of the monetary models. Moreover, empirical evidence for the proportionality between the exchange rate and relative money is provided. Our findings are robust across different measures of inflation expectations. Although there is no clear evidence regarding the exact version of the monetary model, the estimated unrestricted error correction models can fit the actual NOK/USD exchange rate. Finally, the short-term dynamics of the exchange rate are significantly affected by changes in crude oil prices.     

Domestic Energy Consumption and Country’s Income Growth: A Quantitative Analysis of Developing and Developed Countries Using Panel Causality,Panel VECM,Panel Cointegration and SURE

Journal of Quantitative Economics - The present study is an attempt to test the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for developed and developing counties. For this purpose,...     

Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited: The Euro–US Dollar Exchange Rate

ABSTRACT

To explore possible sources of the well-documented uncovered interest parity (UIP) violation in the foreign exchange market, this paper scrutinizes structural changes in monetary reactions to inflationary pressure in the conventional approaches to nominal exchange rate and examines how this small but important change has an effect on the empirical implications of the UIP condition. In addition to some salient features found in the euro exchange rate, by introducing occasional monetary policy regime shifts into an otherwise standard open-economy dynamic general equilibrium model, we found some important findings that potentially help better understand exchange rate dynamics. During the entire sample period, 1999:M1–2014:M8, exchange rate disconnect puzzle still exists. However, sub-sample analysis suggests that relatively passive monetary reaction implying less frequent intervention by monetary authority tends to be more consistent with the UIP relation. Simulation results support the empirical regularities.     

Can Income Inequality be Affected by the Interaction Between ICTs and Human Capital?: The Evidence from Developing Countries

Income inequality in developing countries remains a major concern. It has been established that higher inequality makes a greater proportion of the population vulnerable to poverty. This paper aimed to analyse the effect of the interaction between ICTs and human capital on income inequality in developing countries. Covering 89 developing countries for the period 2000 to 2015 and based on panel fixed effects instrumental variables technique, this study finds that the interaction between ICTs and human capital reduces overall income inequality on the one hand, and on the other, leads to an increase in the income shares of the poorest, and in particular relative to the richest in developing countries. Furthermore, the interaction between ICTs and human capital reinforces the impact of ICTs on income inequality in developing countries. These results suggest that prioritizing the acquisition of human capital by the poorest, as well as promoting access to and use of ICTs for the benefit of the poorest would significantly contribute to reduce overall income inequality and increase income shares of the poorest in developing countries.

     

Political incentives and local government spending multiplier: Evidence for Chinese provinces (1978–2016)

This paper uses data from Chinese provinces to examine the effects of political incentives of provincial leaders on local government spending multipliers over the post-economic-reform period. The estimation based on the local projection method provides three novel findings. Firstly, the estimated cumulative relative government spending multiplier is well above unity, and it is greater in the period after 1994 compared with before 1994. Secondly, the political incentives of provincial leaders augment the local government spending multipliers, and the effects are highly significant after 1994. Thirdly, the economic boom strengthens the augmenting effects of political incentives after 1994.     

The Effect of Market Structure on Banks’ Profitability and Stability: Evidence from ASEAN-5 Countries

This paper analyses the effect of market structure on profitability and stability using the sample of 130 commercial banks in ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) over the period from 2001 to 2013. More specifically, this study investigates the relevance of the structure conduct performance (SCP) and the relative market power (RMP) hypotheses. This paper also examines the relevance of ‘concentration-stability’ and ‘concentration-fragility’ hypotheses in the case of ASEAN-5 banking. In doing so, we control for the effect of bank-specific and country-specific factors. Empirical results based on system-generalised method of moments (GMM) analyses support the RMP hypothesis but fail to support the SCP hypothesis. We find that concentration stabilizes the banking sector. Evidence also highlights the importance of bank-specific controls related to capitalization and costs on profitability and stability. Implications for policy-makers are addressed.     

The Role of Real Wages,Productivity, and Fiscal Policy in Germany's Great Depression 1928–1937

We study the behavior of output, employment, consumption, and investment in Germany during the Great Depression of 1928–1937. In this time period, real wages were countercyclical, and productivity and fiscal policy were procyclical. We use the neoclassical growth model to investigate how much these factors contribute to the depression. We find that real wages, which were significantly above their market clearing levels, were the most important factor for the economic decline in the depression. Changes in productivity and fiscal policy were also important for the decline and recovery. Even though our analysis is limited to a small number of factors, the model accounts surprisingly well for the depression in Germany. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E13, E32, E62, N14, O47.     

The Income–Temperature Relationship in a Cross-Section of Countries and its Implications for Predicting the Effects of Global Warming

Hotter countries are poorer on average. This paper attempts to separate the historical and contemporaneous components of this income–temperature relationship. Following ideas by Acemoglu et al. (Am Econ Rev 91(5):1369–1401, 2001), we use colonial mortality data to account for the historical role of temperature since colonial mortality was highly correlated with countries’ average temperatures. The remaining income–temperature gradient, after colonial mortality is accounted for, is most likely contemporaneous. This contemporaneous effect can be used to estimate the consequences of global warming. We predict that a 1°C temperature increase across all countries will cause a decrease of 3.8% in world GDP. This prediction is robust across functional forms and an alternative method for separating historical effects.     

The internal and external equilibrium exchange rate of RMB: 1982–2010

This paper estimates fundamental equilibrium exchange rate of RMB based on internal and external balance of China’s economy. The findings indicate that RMB real exchange rate is overvalued in the period of 1982–1991, but the extent of the undervaluation has an enlarging trend since 2004. Then, we put forward a new theory called “Prior Equilibrium Exchange Rate” and apply it to RMB, finding that real effective exchange rate of RMB need to be appreciated about 20% between 2008 and 2010, and the appreciation range of bilateral nominal exchange rate between RMB and the world’s key currencies depends on the objective functions of the government. Policy implication indicates that decision makers need to refer to equilibrium exchange rate which is derived from different theories and to make great efforts to adjust it towards equilibrium level and establish RMB “Prior Equilibrium Exchange Rate.” Meanwhile, policymakers should implement a potential objective interval system of exchange rate appreciation. The appreciation range of bilateral exchange rate of RMB against USD from 2008 to 2010 may be set between 6% to 10%.     

Depoliticisation,the Management of Money and the Renewal of Social Democracy: New Labour's Keynesianism and the Political Economy of ‘Discretionary Constraint’

Pointing to its radical underpinnings in so-called ‘Open Marxism’ and its theory of the state (one that subsumes the state in the capital relation), this article critically scrutinises Peter Burnham's thesis of ‘depoliticisation’ as a dominant accumulation strategy and regime. The article identifies ambiguities around Burnham's depiction of New Labour in power as committed to depoliticisation. It addresses these by drawing a distinction between regime of accumulation and mode of regulation, characterising New Labour's political economy in terms of the latter as a form of depoliticised Keynesianism framed by ‘discretionary constraint’. Contra-Burnham, the article points to the continued efficacy of Keynesian and social democratic political agency in the context of a dialectic of depoliticisation and repoliticisation focused on the role and power of the state. This dialectic is symptomatic of the contested regulation of capitalism around the defence of the value of money, on the one hand, and its broader management and redistribution, on the other.     

Common Trends and Common Cycles in Per Capita GDP: The Case of the G7 Countries, 1870–2001

In this paper we analyze per capita incomes of the G7 countries using the common cycles test developed by Vahid and Engle (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8:341–360, 1993) and extended by Hecq et al. (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62:511–532, 2000; Econometric Reviews, 21:273–307, 2002) and the common trend test developed by Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12:231–254, 1988). Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing the innovations into permanent and transitory components. Our main finding is permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in incomes for the G7 countries over short time horizons, and is in sharp contrast to the bulk of the recent literature. We attribute this to the greater forecasting accuracy achieved, which we later confirm through performing a post sample forecasting exercise, from the variance decomposition analysis.