A stochastic patent citation analysis approach to assessing future technological impacts

The anticipation and forecast of technological changes are of vital importance, as technological advances become increasingly fast and complex. What is at the core is identification of the current technologies that will drive technological changes over the coming few years. In this respect, numerous approaches have been devised to assess future technological impacts based on patent citation information, but do not provide a fair reflection of dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of technological impacts as they are deterministic methods based on simple citation counts. We propose a stochastic patent citation analysis that can assess future technological impacts in a time period of interest by employing the future citation count as a proxy. At the heart of the proposed approach is a Pareto/NBD (Negative Binomial Distribution) model for taking into account the dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of technological impacts. A patent citation matrix is first constructed for each time unit with citation patterns of the past. The future technological impacts are then derived by Pareto/NBD sub-model and gamma–gamma sub-model. A case study of the display technology patents is presented to illustrate the proposed approach. We believe our method can be employed in various research fields, from narrow patent valuation, to broad technological analysis and planning.     

R&D Corporate Planning: Selecting the Core Technological Competencies

This paper deals with the selection of a firm's technological competencies on which to concentrate development efforts in a long term view. The perspective is that of corporate R&D which has to identify the technological competencies relevant to future competition and select those core for the firm. This process faces a major challenge, especially to put together different issues relevant to the problem: identify future scenarios and predict how new industries will be shaped, evaluate the potential of future markets, estimate the role and relevance of the technologies involved, identify a balanced set of technologies. This paper proposes a comprehensive methodology to support the process of selection of core technological competencies.     

Patent portfolios and knowledge flow(s) of photovoltaic companies

The current trend towards green energy is encouraging manufacturers to invest in photovoltaic technologies. In order to guarantee R&D and optimal operational performance, operators should be able to identify the technological advantages of their competitors for the conduct R&D and to ensure adequate technological knowledge intake. Therefore, from the perspective of patent portfolios and knowledge flow(s) of photovoltaic companies, this study adopted two approaches namely, patent counts and patent citations, to discuss the technical capability of R&D portfolios and the technological knowledge flow. Three patent indices were utilised for the integration of R&D portfolios which include: technology attractiveness, relative patent position, and revealed patent advantage. Technological knowledge flow allows construction of a patent citation network through backward citation of patents. Sources and movement directions of technological knowledge are measured by calculating the relative citation propensity. R&D portfolios and knowledge flow are complementary perspectives of each photovoltaic company.     

不同类型创新生态系统如何推动核心技术开发与企业销售增长——以中国电子信息技术产业为例

高科技产业技术创新复杂度急剧提升,营造创新生态系统已成为企业保持长期竞争优势的一种重要战略选择。基于知识管理、技术依存结构与网络外部性等视角,利用中国电子信息技术产业上市公司2007-2017年面板数据,探讨相关技术多元化与非相关技术多元化创新生态系统推动核心技术开发、企业销售增长的深层次机理。结果发现：营造相关技术多元化创新生态系统有助于企业打造核心竞争优势,促进核心技术开发,并借此实现企业销售增长;营造非相关技术多元化创新生态系统不仅能够直接促进核心技术开发与企业销售增长,更有助于丰富互补配套产品技术体系,激发间接网络效应,与相关技术多元化创新生态系统形成耦合效应,从而共同促进企业销售增长。     

能量转换视角下人工智能关键核心技术产业化路径解析

人工智能是驱动新一轮科技革命和产业变革的中坚力量，探究人工智能关键核心技术产业化路径对于我国数字经济发展、数字化转型和创新型国家建设具有重要意义。基于能量转换视角，探讨人工智能技术产业化路径形成机理，识别人工智能关键核心技术产业化路径并对其进行解析。研究发现：①人工智能技术产业化过程存在能量转换，技术创新能量、催化孕育能量、商业转化能量和业态塑造能量共同构成能量转换的核心环节，决定技术产业化路径具体过程；②人工智能关键核心技术包括机器学习、计算机视觉、自然语言处理等八大技术领域，不同属性核心技术构成相应技术集群，形成以识别、交互和执行为主题的技术产业化路径；③技术集群属性是影响技术产业化路径的关键因素。从能量视角对人工智能关键核心技术进行有效识别和归纳，为我国科学推进人工智能技术产业化进程提供相应思路启示与政策响应。     

需求牵引的综合科技服务流程动态拼接研究

复杂的科技服务需求对单一的专业科技服务提出了巨大挑战，需要研究可行的综合科技服务方案予以应对。通过初始服务流程识别和客户需求到服务流程转化，得到与客户需求相关的服务流程。基于功能相关性评价，对服务流程进行模糊聚类分析，通过计算最大适应度值确定最优科技服务流程拼接方案。贡献在于，提出一种综合科技服务流程动态拼接方法，并以技术转移类综合科技服务为例进行说明。     

考虑关键核心技术发展的我国集成电路产业政策效力研究

基于专利数据识别集成电路产业关键核心技术，构建技术发展水平评价指标体系并评估关键核心技术发展水平。进一步基于13项关键核心技术对产业政策进行分解匹配，测度各技术环节政策措施间协调度，并实证分析政策措施及其协调度对关键核心技术发展水平的影响。结果表明，我国集成电路产业各关键核心技术差距明显，技术发展水平相对较低；规划引导措施对关键核心技术发展存在显著正向影响，监管认证、税收优惠、规划引导与技术支持措施间协调情况对关键核心技术发展具有显著负向影响，现有金融支持、技术支持措施与其它措施间协调情况较差，不利于关键核心技术发展水平提升。未来政策应鼓励创新主体加大研发投入力度，及时更新监管认证措施并加强对金融支持等措施的监督，为关键核心技术发展提供更强有力的政策保障。     

区域科技资源共享平台集成服务能力结构维度研究

随着我国全面实施创新驱动发展战略,科技资源共享平台已成为国家和地区集聚科技资源、创新服务需求的重要载体,培育和提升平台集成服务能力,是发挥科技资源共享平台创新服务支撑作用与杠杆效应的有效途径和战略选择。首先界定区域科技资源共享平台集成服务能力的内涵与特征,运用解释结构模型（ISM）对平台集成服务能力的关键要素及层次结构进行识别,进而选取广东、上海、北京和黑龙江等省市科技资源共享平台作为典型案例进行比较分析。结果表明,区域科技资源共享平台集成服务能力由资源集成能力、需求集成能力、服务匹配能力、运行管理能力4个维度构成,典型案例平台各有优势与特色,但在不同能力维度仍有提升空间。结论可为区域科技资源共享平台集成服务能力培育和提升提供理论方法指导,为区域科技资源共享平台更好地服务于战略性新兴产业创新和持续发展提供有效决策依据。     

面向科研协同的跨系统技术创新信息服务融合平台构建

随着科研创新的协同化发展,由多元创新主体参与的科研协同活动逐渐实现了技术创新信息服务融合,满足了跨系统创新资源整合利用需求,提升了科研协同技术创新能力与效率。针对以科研协同为目标的技术创新环节中的科研创新需求,从面向技术创新资讯整合服务、专利与标准服务、参考咨询服务和项目协同管理服务4个方面阐述服务融合对象,构建了面向科研协同跨系统技术创新信息服务融合平台,并利用Yahoo! Pipes实现面向科研协同的跨系统技术创新信息服务融合。     

Domestic and international competitive focus, technology strategy and company performance: an empirical analysis

This study empirically explores the association of a firm's approach to domestic and international operations with its technological choices and financial performance. The technological choices examined unclude the following: commitment to leading the creation of new technologies: emphasis on internal and external sources of technology: capital spending for technological pursuits: R&D investments. Cluster analysis of data from 180 US electronics firms produced four clusters of international and domestic operations. These clusters exhibited variaions in companies' technological choices and in the associations between technology variables and company financial performance. The results help to identify viable technolgical choices under different combinations of domestic and international competition.     

Against the digital revolution? Institutional maintenance and artefacts within the French recorded music industry

Institutional maintenance is particularly intriguing when it occurs in the case of technological shifts, with both changes in technologies but persistence in fundamental ways of thinking. In such a case, artefacts may play a significant role, since they are impacted by new technologies but may remain associated with old values. This raises a core question: What work is carried out on the cognitive dimension of artefacts by actors engaged in institutional maintenance? We answer this question through a study of players' endeavors to maintain the institution of intellectual property rights in the French music industry from 2004 to 2008. We interviewed 26 actors and compiled a base of secondary data over an extended period of time. Our results underline that some artefacts convey institutional maintenance, even in the case of technological shifts. More specifically, we show that actors engaged in institutional maintenance target their efforts towards the manipulation of values infused into artefacts. We also shed light on their efforts to design global devices, akin to the idea of “dispositif”. Embedded in these global devices, some artefacts become nodal points forcing actors in the field to comply with the institution that is defended.     

数字经济发展提升了区域创新能力吗——基于长江经济带的空间计量分析

基于长江经济带11省市2008—2018年面板数据,测度省域数字经济发展水平,并使用空间杜宾模型实证探究数字经济发展对区域创新能力的影响。结果发现：数字经济发展水平是影响区域创新能力的重要因素,对本省域技术创新、产品创新均有促进作用,而在部分矩阵下对省际创新发展有负向溢出效应;经济发展水平、科研经费投入、人才投入与外商投资均对区域创新产生一定影响。为此,建议加强区域技术联系与资源共享,打破数字经济在区域间创新发展壁垒,优化资源配置,实施创新资源精准投入,推动新型基础设施建设,提升数字经济应用水平,以进一步提高区域创新能力。     

在位企业非连续性技术变革的技术代际桥研究

非连续性技术变革给在位企业带来巨大挑战，要求在位企业克服新技术研发困难和自身潜在惰性进行积极响应，在与新进入企业市场竞争中获取持续竞争优势，化解熊彼特提出的破坏性创新威胁。整合社会网络理论、知识管理理论及创新管理理论，以65家汽车综合型整车在位制造企业为样本，通过搭建发明家桥、合作研发桥、混合技术桥等3个维度的技术代际桥，探讨在位企业如何在维持两代技术阶段性平衡的前提下提高新技术创新绩效。结果发现：发明家桥与企业新技术创新绩效呈倒U型关系；合作研发桥和混合技术桥对企业新技术创新绩效具有显著促进作用；旧技术创新绩效负向调节发明家桥与新技术创新绩效的倒U型关系。研究旨在为在位企业应对非连续性技术变革，提高新技术创新绩效提供相应的对策建议。     

The semiconductor silicon industry roadmap: Epochs driven by the dynamics between disruptive technologies and core competencies

The resource-based perspective has done much to identify idiosyncratic firm attributes that may be a principal source of competitive advantages. Unfortunately, there has been little systematic industry evidence to support the strategic importance of core competence, nor has there been much work on the temporal or cumulative nature of core capabilities within an industrial setting. Further, little or no research has been performed demonstrating how the advent of technological discontinuities or disruptive technologies plays a part in creating epochs in technology competency development and the roadmap of an industry. In this study, we analyze the evolutionary and cumulative nature of core capabilities and their interactions with technological discontinuities from a market-driven perspective. We have studied the evolution of 167 firms through the 50-year history of the semiconductor silicon industry. Over time, there were several structural shifts in the necessary competencies through the advent of disruptive technologies. In the last 30 years, however, the change in the required competencies has been more cumulative in nature. We summarize this in a roadmap detailing the epochs in the semiconductor silicon industry.     

技术价值分界及其决策的伦理指向研究——以保罗的后果不确定技术价值分界理论为例

合理的技术价值界限是理性决策的依据。对于复杂的新技术，尤其是后果不确定技术，不同主体间价值认知分歧直接导致价值界限不清，成为理性决策的难点。以保罗的实用对话伦理理论为认知路径，讨论此类技术价值分界方法。通过比较功利主义、自由至上主义在价值认识和判断上的后果差异，揭示后果不确定技术价值在不同主体间漂移的原因，探索在不同价值主体间产生伦理维度的技术价值界限方法。在开放式语义环境中，不同价值主体之间的共识即是技术价值的伦理界限，可为决策公正提供伦理支撑，避免因主体缺失而导致在应用中发生技术价值过度偏失和决策失当，为我国发展诸如转基因水稻等后果不确定技术决策提供可操作性的方法论借鉴。     

Technological position in alliances network

The purpose of this research was to examine the interactions between the focal firm (FF) and its technological alliance, and to enquire into the technological alliance network in shaping the firm position from innovative dynamics environment. 2-Mode network analysis was employed to explore the question of how technological position emerged from alliance interaction. Specifically, we looked at the network structure of the sample by examining the interactions of technological alliance. Our empirical data were from the ‘Strategic Alliance Database’ established by the Ministry of Science and Technology in Taiwan. We identified technological position of firms from the 2-mode network analysis to resolve the highlighted question. Some results that we found were as follows: (1) The alliance network of IT technology approximated an ideal core/periphery structure. (2) The network structure apparently demonstrated that FF with a higher centrality has better opportunity to locate in the central position of FFs or in the core position in the technological network. (3) Alliance in core with a dense structure can better facilitate the utilisation of existing knowledge in refinement and extension of existing technologies. Alliance in the periphery with a non-dense structure is in a favourable position for matchmaking of experimentation and to serve as a bridge to introduce novel technologies.     

Disruptive technology roadmaps

Disruptive technologies create growth in the industries they penetrate or create entirely new industries through the introduction of products and services that are dramatically cheaper, better, and more convenient. These disruptive technologies often disrupt workforce participation by allowing technologically unsophisticated individuals to enter and become competitive in the industrial workforce. Disruptive technologies offer a revolutionary change in the conduct of processes or operations.Disruptive technologies can evolve from the confluence of seemingly diverse technologies or can be a result of an entirely new technological investigation. Existing planning processes are notoriously poor in identifying the mix of sometimes highly disparate technologies required to address the multiple performance objectives of a particular niche in the market. For a number of reasons, especially the inability to look beyond short-term profitability, and the risk/return tradeoff of longer term projects, it is suggested that current strategic planning and management processes promote sustaining technologies at the expense of disruptive technologies.We propose a systematic approach to identify disruptive technologies that is realistic and operable and takes advantage of the text mining literature. This literature-based discovery process is especially useful in identifying potential disruptive technologies that may require the input from many diverse technological and management areas. We believe that this process holds great potential for identifying projects with a higher probability of downstream success. Further, we suggest a process to take the identified potential disruptive technology from the “idea stage” through to the development of a potentially feasible product for the market. This second stage makes use of workshops and roadmapping to codify the ideas of technological and management experts, who were identified in the literature-based discovery stage. Our goal is to describe and explain the pragmatic steps suggested by our innovative and practical process.The proposed process could identify technologies whose eventual development and application to specific problems would generate innovative products. The goal is to isolate technologies that have the potential to redefine an industry, or alternatively, have the potential to create an entirely new industrial setting. Use the text-mining component of literature-based discovery to identify both the technical disciplines that are likely candidates for disruptive technological products, and experts in these critical technical and managerial disciplines. While we know that this is but one way to investigate nascent disruptive technologies we feel it is imperative that the representatives of these potentially critical technical disciplines are included in the roadmap development process, either as implementers or as consultants.Every firm is looking for “the next great thing”. Literature-based discovery offers a starting point for identifying at least a portion of the major contributory technical and managerial disciplines necessary for potential disruptive technologies and discontinuous innovations. Combining literature-based discovery with a practical workshop/roadmap process dramatically enhances the likelihood of success.     

Shadows of the past: path dependence of TV on its sub-systems,complements and substitutes

In this study, two levels of path dependence in the television technological system are examined: (1) How does the development of television (TV) core components affect the development of peripheral components? and (2) How does the development of complementary and substitute technologies affect the development of television technology? Results from the empirical analysis using patents from 1975 to 2004 indicate that: (a) the development of TV periphery technologies is path-dependent on the development of TV core technologies and (b) even after controlling for its own prior history, the development of the TV system is path-dependent on the development of its complementary technologies. However, there is weak evidence of the path dependence of the TV system on the development of its substitute technologies.     

Technological differences and convergence in the OECD

Abstract. In this paper we test the homogeneity of the technological parameters among OECD countries, which is the maintained hypothesis in most of the empirical growth literature. We first identify differences in the constant term of the convergence equation estimated for the OECD 1960/1990 sample using a fixed- effects estimator. Then we provide a formal test of the homogeneity of technological parameters across groups of countries. We identify at least two different groups within the OECD, with significantly different technologies. Convergence within each group is fast, supporting the notion of club convergence. Nevertheless, the implausible parameter values obtained for the leading technology club casts some doubts on the validity of the Solow model to account for the long run behaviour of this group of countries.     

人工智能关键核心技术创新能力测度体系构建：基于创新生态系统视角

突破关键核心技术是“十四五”时期我国建设世界科技强国面临的重要问题。人工智能作为科技变革的核心力量,科学合理地评价其技术创新能力,对提升我国科技竞争力具有重要意义。基于创新生态系统视角,从创新主体、创新环境和系统效益3个维度对我国人工智能关键核心技术创新能力进行测度。结果发现：①我国人工智能关键核心技术创新能力逐年增强,创新主体数量、企业研发资金、算法等成为主要影响因素。其中,创新主体数量对关键核心技术创新能力的影响高于资源投入;②基础研究在关键核心技术创新过程中扮演着举足轻重的角色;③算法、数据和算力是提升人工智能关键核心技术的三大显著性影响因素,其与该技术生命周期密切相关。我国应坚持创新导向,培育多元创新主体,持续鼓励算法研究,加快开放平台建设和技术标准制定,协调技术发展与治理的关系,实现我国在关键核心技术领域的突破。