比利时行业减排目标与措施（2008-2012年）

为履行《京都议定书》和《欧盟责任分担协议》,比利时必须在2008—2012年完成与1990年相比减排7．5％的目标。2006年9月比利时政府向欧委会递交了《比利时2008—2012年二氧化碳（CO2）排放限额分配国家计划草案》;2008年2月向欧委会递交了《比利时2008—2012年温室气体排放（GHG）限额分配国家额度计划》。本文介绍了该计划的主要内容,其中包括比利时联邦和各大区政府所采取的政策,特别是行业减排的目标和措施,如：能源生产、能耗、建筑、交通、工业、农业、林业及垃圾等。     

Research on regional capability constructive models of cleat development mechanism

Global climate change has been identified as the ftrst of the top ten environmental problems in the world,As climate change will have serious effects on the social and economic development and everyday living of people in the world,many of the countries and governments are taking untiring efforts to combat climate change.As one of the important mechanisms of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Kyoto Protocol,Clean DevelopmentMechanism (CDM) has not only provided chance.for developed countries to ftdfill greenhouse emission reduction obligations,but also provided an opportunity for developing countries to combat climate change under the sustainabledevelopment frame.The dual objectives of developed countries' GHG emissions' reduction obligation achievement and developing countries'sustainable development will be achieved under the CDM.As a country with responsibility,China has been positively developing CDM projects and promoting energy saving and emissions reduction during the three years after the Kyoto Protocol came into force,and CDM projects development has always been in the front tank in the world However,as the vast clime within China,notable differences occur in different regions.In order to promote the CDM development in China,it is necessary to have regional CDM capability construction in accor dance with the practicality in different regions.Based on the Slat Analysis of developed CDM projects and current CDM development status in China,problems in the CDM development of China,including the inefficiency in sinall and medium-sized CDM Projects development,over centralization of CDM development scope and especially the differentiated provincial CDM projects developing capability are pointed out in the paper.What's more,reasons forthe problems are analyzed from the leading factors,including policy orient,information asymmetry and weak CDMcapability.In order to promote CDM projects development in China,a new CDM capability construction model is put forward in the paper     

Critical factors in computing externalities for electricity resources

The New York State Environmental Externalities Cost Study and computerized externality model (EXMOD) are used to examine the specification of methods design and application factors in the computation of electricity externalities. We report the sensitivity of externality estimates with alternative specifications for 15 different factors in the analysis, including the selection of facility type, site, and operating characteristics; air emission assumptions and air modeling procedures; dose-response assumptions; economic valuation assumptions; and other modeling procedures and assumptions. Many of the factors that most influence externality computations can be well specified in the analysis, such as the facility type, age, characteristics, emission rates, whether there is SO₂ trading, and the inclusion of long range impacts. Most significant among the factors for which there remains significant scientific uncertainty are the selection and application of air dispersion models, selection of air pollution thresholds for health impacts, reduced life span risks associated with ozone exposure and with long-term exposure to PM₁₀, values for CO₂ damages, and the value to be applied to increased risks of reduced life span for individuals age 65 or older.     

Structural equation model for predicting technology commercialization success index (TCSI)

Expecting high return, many firms try to invest on R&D of new technology. However, critical loss of assets would occur, when a firm fails to commercialize the developed technology. It would be of interest to provide the ideal environment for commercialization from the R&D stage. In this study, we use a structural equation model (SEM) to forecast the technology commercialization success index (TCSI) in relation to technology developer, technology receiver, technology transfer center, and environmental factors. The proposed SEM is fitted based on partial least square (PLS) estimation procedure. Individual TCSI is then found following the approach used for American customer satisfaction index (ACSI) for various combinations of characteristics of the type of technology, technology receiver, and technology developer. We expect that the proposed approach for TCSI can be used as guidance for an ideal match of technology with technology developer and technology receiver.     

Environmental and economic impacts of trade barriers: The example of China–US trade friction

The new age of trade wars could simultaneously affect the worldwide distribution pattern of the economy and environmental emissions. However, previous studies have focused on economic impacts, and on trade liberalization, while little is known about the equilibrium effects of trade barriers on the environment. Using a global computable general equilibrium model and taking the recent anti-trade policies of the Trump administration as an example, this study investigates the possible socio-economic and environmental effects of trade friction. Specifically, this study explores how the implemented six rounds of China–US trade friction and its different long-term development trends affect regional economic output, GHG and air pollutant emissions. Results show that trade barriers harm both countries’ economies and such losses have a certain permanence, while non-participants can benefit indirectly. Trade friction decreases participants’ GHG emissions, modifies global GHG emission distribution patterns, and leads to improved air quality in most countries. If governments continue to impose tariffs, global GHG emissions could counterfactually decrease by up to 5%. However, the change in trade patterns is not conducive to clean energy development in the less-developed regions, including the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and emission reductions from trade friction are insufficient to avoid catastrophic climate change.     

天然气分布式冷热电联供系统节能减排技术经济分析模型

分析了我国天然气能源供需情况及能源价格情况,构建了天然气分布式冷热电联供系统的经济效益分析模型。利用相关数据,分析了该系统的经济效益,并对影响经济效益的主要因素进行了敏感性分析,构建了天然气分布式冷热电联供系统节能减排效益分析模型,并对该系统的减排效益进行分析。结果表明:天然气分布式冷热电联动系统具有显著的经济效益,可大大降低污染物的排放量。     

Modelling intervention options to reduce GHG emissions in housing stock — A diffusion approach

The building sector is regarded as having one of the highest benefit-cost ratios from greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction strategies. However, because of uncertainties around household behaviour patterns, it is very difficult to assess and compare the GHG reduction impacts of different intervention schemes for whole housing stock. Intervention schemes include policy instruments such as incentives or rebates for energy efficient appliances or renewable energy, and regulatory building code requirements for energy efficiency. This paper presents a decision support tool based on mathematical diffusion that evaluates the adoption levels of different schemes or pathways towards reducing GHG emissions in housing stock. It is an extension of the Bass diffusion model that accommodates financial and non-financial benefits, ceilings of adoption and interactions between intervention options. The model capability was tested using a case study of seven suburbs in Brisbane, Australia, comprising of 25,000 houses and units. Estimates of GHG emission reductions to 2019 of a household rebate scheme for solar panels and a rebate scheme for solar hot water compared to a base case of no rebates were presented and analysed. Modelling also allowed identification of important characteristics of adoption trends that could assist policy makers and industry to substantially improve the design of effective intervention options.     

中国节能减排潜力测度与优化路径

在综合考虑能源利用和污染物排放的基础上,利用数据包络分析方法构建节能潜力和减排潜力的测度模型。利用1996—2010年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的相关数据,计算其节能潜力和减排潜力。基于此,利用ArcGIS10.0软件分析中国节能潜力和减排潜力的时空演进情况,找到各省节能减排的最优路径。结果表明:整体上看,中国具有较大的节能减排潜力,其中节能减排潜力较大的省份主要有山西、贵州、云南、陕西和甘肃等;随着时间的推移,中国的节能减排潜力呈明显的"西-中-东"阶梯状分布格局,节能、减排的重点区域均有向西部地区转移的倾向;中国节能减排的重点监控省份可选择的优化路径有渐进式和飞跃式两种。     

50多年来中国空港布局演变及其影响因素——基于空间分析和数理统计的方法

随着社会经济蓬勃发展,中国渐渐步入民航大国行列,但很多民航机场亏损的现象并没改变,导致这种现象一个不容忽视的原因就是机场的空间分布与航空运输需求的空间分布之间存在一定的偏差。文章采用空间分析和数理统计相结合的方法,分析中国机场空间发展演变的规律,表明过去50多年中国机场分布密度增大,呈分散趋势,航空网通达性越来越高,但依然存在明显的区域差异。在探讨航空客货运量的空间格局及影响客货需求生成量的基础上,定量分析决定空港空间布局的主要因素,进一步根据中国省域层面航空运输供需分析,提出中国机场未来优化布局建议。     

低碳交通研究进展与启示

交通运输行业是能源消耗及碳排放三大行业之一,是应对气候变化的重点领域。加快开展低碳交通相关研究,支撑制定交通运输碳减排政策措施,具有重要的理论和现实意义。通过文献综述,梳理分析了低碳交通研究进展,主要分为交通运输碳排放影响因素分析、未来预测与潜力分析、减排措施评估分析、核算方法与评价等研究主题。基于文献梳理分析发现,交通运输碳排放影响因素主要包括经济发展水平、人口规模、交通运输总周转量、交通运输碳强度、城镇化率、城市空间分布、运输结构、交通燃料价格等;交通运输碳排放未来预测和潜力的研究目前以情景分析方法为主;交通运输碳减排措施总体包括技术性、结构性和管理性措施;交通运输碳排放核算方法与评价研究角度和领域跨度较大。目前相关研究存在量化研究影响因素过程中过度聚焦宏观层次因素,部分影响因素研究存在重复解释现象,货运峰值研判、低碳交通投资等主题研究相对有限等不足之处。     

Time Preference, Stock Externalities and Strategic Reactions

This paper examines the relationship between the rateof time preference and strategic reactions in dealing with climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Treating climate change as stock externalities, the RICE model (Nordhaus and Yang [1996]) is employed in this paper for simulation studies. The simulation results show that when regions' rate of time preference in evaluating climatechange is sufficiently low, the paths of efficient GHGemission reduction measurement and the inefficient Nash equilibrium outcome are close. The paper also provides general interpretations of such phenomena. Finally, the implications of a low rate of time preference on GHG emission reduction policies are discussed.     

行业资源的内涵界定与构成体系——以航空资源为例

随着全球航空运输业和航空制造业竞争的加剧,越来越多的国家和地区开始关注航空资源在全球范围内的配置问题。在航空资源全球配置问题研究的过程中,首先应该解决什么是航空资源、航空资源的构成有哪些等问题。因此,本文首先从资源概念的理论回顾中梳理资源概念的历史脉络,认为现有的资源概念虽然强调了资源的多要素组合性,但却较少涉及行业资源的界定与分析,也缺少对资源要素组合的系统梳理;然后,本文基于产业链理论和市场需求的视角,拓展了界定行业资源的理论基础,从产业链上下游拓展和产业需求环境两个维度,构建了行业资源要素分析的理论框架;最后,本文结合航空产业的运作流程和市场需求,从狭义、广义和泛义三个层次,给出航空资源的定义,并从航空运输基础资源、航空拓展服务资源、航空产业环境资源三个方面阐述了航空资源要素的构成体系。     

Economic and environmental performance of wastewater treatment plants: Potential reductions in greenhouse gases emissions

Sanitation and wastewater treatment are essential for protecting human health and environmental sustainability. Treatment processes are not free of environmental impacts; consequently assessment of the environmental performance of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) has gained interest in recent years. Unlike other methods, a direct approach is followed to estimate environmental performance indicators (EPIs) using data envelopment analysis (DEA), i.e. an index of overall performance is directly obtained. The present study represents pioneering work to integrate environmental impacts in the assessment of the efficiency of WWTP estimating pure (PEPI) and mixed (MEPI) environmental performance indices for a sample of 60 Spanish WWTPs. Both direct and indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were considered as undesirable outputs. The best functioning WWTPs to be used as references were identified, and the potential for GHG reductions was quantified. A second-stage analysis was conducted to isolate factors affecting WWTP environmental performance. The results of this study are valuable for WWTP operators and policy makers, since the benchmark procedure allows support for environmental and managerial decision-making.     

刍议中国能源消费与经济增长的内在关系

从包含了资本、劳动力、能源的三因素生产函数出发,选取了可能找到的最长的时间序列数据,综合运用ECM模型和脉冲分析的方法,把变量之间的长期关系和短期影响结合在一起分析,并考察能源与经济之间在同期内的互相作用和因果流向关系,阐述了能源消费对于中国经济发展以及节能减排的重要影响。     

Capital Malleability, Emission Leakage and the Cost of Partial Climate Policies: General Equilibrium Analysis of the European Union Emission Trading System

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are the premier analytical platform for assessing the economic impacts of climate change mitigation. But these models tend to treat physical capital as “malleable”, capable of reallocation among sectors over the time-period for which equilibrium is solved. Because the extent to which capital adjustment costs might dampen reallocation is not well understood, there is concern that CGE assessments understate the true costs of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policies. This paper uses a multi-region, multi-sector CGE model to investigate cap-and-trade schemes, such as the European Union Emission Trading System which cover a subset of the economy, elucidating the effects of capital malleability on GHG abatement, the potential for emission leakage from abating to non-abating sectors, and the impacts on welfare. To simplify the complex interactions being simulated within the CGE model, that analysis is complemented with an analytical model. A partial climate policy results in negative internal carbon leakage, with emissions declining not only in capped sectors but also in non-regulated ones. This result is stronger when capital is intersectorally mobile. Interestingly, in partial climate policy settings capital malleability can amplify or attenuate welfare losses depending on the attributes of the economy.     

Statistical modeling of land-cover changes based on key socio-economic indicators

Landscapes are complex human–environment systems operating at spatio-temporal scales. Time is just as important as space when researching landscape changes. These changes are influenced by both environmental and socio-economic factors. However, correlations between environmental landscape attributes and land-cover patterns/changes are weakened by human activities such as intensification of agriculture eliminating the constraints of water and nutrient availability. Relations between changes in socio-economic organisation and land cover become apparent only over a longer period of time. Thus, in our study, we focused on socio-economic factors and their long-term effects on land cover. We present a method to (i) differentiate types of land-cover changes at district level, (ii) model correlations between socio-economic factors and land cover changes and (iii) identify key socio-economic indicators of land-cover changes between 1945 and 1999 in a German marginal rural landscape.We employed agricultural land-cover data gained from the interpretation of multi-temporal aerial photographs. Based on these data, we differentiated types of land-cover changes, characterising different directions of agricultural land-cover changes in the observation time period. Various socio-economic aspects were considered by introducing data representing factors of demography, employment, economy, infrastructure, agricultural structure and policy. The relations between time series of land-cover data and of socio-economic data were modeled with the help of redundancy analysis. Correlation coefficients were used to identify key socio-economic indicators of land-cover changes. The results showed that a relatively high percentage of variance in land-cover data can be explained by socio-economic factors. The types of land-cover changes can be characterised by combinations of key socio-economic indicators. The indicators can be helpful to reconstruct land-cover changes in other regions. Thus, they provide a basis for the development of sustainable land-cover management systems.     

关于京津冀机场民航运输协同发展的建议

京津冀机场发展中存在首都机场繁忙,但国际航空运输业务较弱。天津机场和石家庄机场设计能力利用不足及空域紧张和新机场建成后新的不均衡可能会更加突出等问题。京津冀机场民航运输协同发展要以首都机场打造世界一流的国际航空枢纽,天津机场建设具有优质服务品牌的区域性航空枢纽,石家庄机场着力发展低成本航空,共同为各类民航用户提供更加多样化、更加便捷的航空运输服务。同时,要解决空域紧张和新机场建成后建立京津冀多机场系统共同发展的互补模式。     

股利分配动因与股利决策——基于上市公司股利分配决策的实证分析

股利政策对公司价值的影响、信号传递效应、股东财富效应3种股利分配动因与股利决策存在显著的正相关关系．降低代理成本效应对股利决策影响不显著。上市公司管理层股利决策的动因在于通过股利分配政策影响股票价格．传递公司盈利能力和发展前景的内部信息,帮助投资者实现超额收益．增加股东财富。而降低代理成本并不是他们分配股利的目的。     

Factors Influencing Corporate Environmental Protection Activities for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions: The Relationship Between Environmental and Financial Performance

This paper analyzes the relationship between a firm??s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and its profitability in Japanese manufacturing. Defining the difference between the marginal revenue and cost of reducing GHG emissions as the ??net benefit,?? which is endogenously characterized by various factors, we estimate a switching regression model where the sign of the net benefit determines the relationship between GHG emissions and profitability. Our empirical analysis focuses on ISO 14001 adoption, market competition, uncertainty, financial flexibility, and share ownership structure as the factors, and indicates that firms with low firm-specific uncertainty, high financial flexibility, and a high proportion of large shareholders tend to have a nonnegative net benefit, so that the positive relationship between their GHG emissions and profitability is mitigated. On the other hand, although ISO 14001 adoption is generally considered to be an indicator of a firm??s stance on environmental proactiveness, it does not provide a sufficient incentive to reduce emissions. Factors such as uncertainty, financial flexibility, and share ownership structure are more important to GHG emission reductions.