The Dahrendorf hypothesis and its implications for (the theory of) economic policy-making

The sociologist R. Dahrendorf has recently suggested that thereis no and there ought to be no convergence of economic policiestowards some common ideal model. On the contrary, he statesthat ‘diversity is [...] at the very heart of a worldthat has abandoned the need for closed, encompassing systems’.It is shown in this paper that the Dahrendorf hypothesis isdifficult to reconcile with orthodox economic approaches toeconomic policy-making. A perspective on policy-making thatintroduces either fundamental uncertainty or endogenous policypreferences or both is, however, shown to be consistent withthe Dahrendorf hypothesis.     

理解当代中国的中央与地方关系

建国以来,中央与地方关系始终处于动态演进过程之中。在传统计划经济时期,中央与地方关系的演进特点是收权与放权的往复循环;改革开放之后,以财税体制改革和政府机构改革为重点,中央与地方关系得到了相应的调整,中国经济与政治体制改革取得了显著成效。尽管如此,中央与地方关系因其复杂性和历史惯性而出现了诸如集权与分权的程度之争、事权与财力的匹配之争、中央与地方的强弱之争等矛盾,解决这些矛盾的方式方法反过来影响了宏观经济稳定和微观经济活力。为今之计是进一步推进经济与政治体制改革,探索包括转变政府职能、建立公共财政体系和优化政府权力结构在内的中央与地方关系。     

Pursuing self-interest or self-actualization? From capitalism to a steady-state, wisdom economy

The co-evolution of capitalism, democracy and science since 1800 has led to enormous progress but also major existential problems. This article asserts that these problems are rooted in neo-classical economics' narrow focus within human nature on self-interest, which causes intense conflicts for scarce resources among people, societies, species and generations. It describes how an emphasis on the totality of human nature in life, with a focus on self-actualization instead of self-interest as the main driving force and wisdom rather than wealth as the ultimate aim, can lead to a steady-state, wisdom economy that can simultaneously ensure high personal welfare and collective sustainability.     

The fragility of a discipline when a model has monopoly status

We consider the consequences of a scientific literature with only one model of an important phenomenon. The falsification of the model would mean falsification of the science. Scientists who would prefer not to have their discipline falsified will be tempted to find ad hoc explanations to excuse the failure. To test this hypothesis we propose a study of the economic forecasts of the comparative Soviet and American growth rates in the years before a public choice model of central planning was a viable alternative to the public interest model. JEL Code A11, B23 Earlier versions of the paper were presented at the University of Manitoba Economics Department Retreat in October 2005 and at the Center for Study of Public Choice Wednesday Seminar in November 2005. We thank the participants for their suggestions. All the remaining errors are our responsibility.     

Did the 2016 election cause changes in substance use? An intersectional approach

This paper examines the impact of the 2016 election on substance use. One of Donald Trump's major campaign initiatives was to build a wall at the American/Mexican border, and he frequently made negative comments about various underrepresented groups. I hypothesize that this unorthodox rhetoric, coupled with Donald Trump's proposed policies during his campaign, created an exogenous shock of discrimination for women, and ethnic and racial minority groups when he was elected. The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System dataset, which has a variety of health measures and demographic information compiled at the individual level, is utilized to empirically examine the hypothesis. I examine the average treatment effects of the election using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy. The results indicate that there has been an increase in cigarette use for Hispanic individuals. These results highlight the impact that discriminatory rhetoric by political leaders and public figures has on marginalized groups within society. Policy implications include new ways to target substance use by targeting discrimination.     

经济民主与社会主义市场经济的政治经济学含义:基于生产方式视角的分析

长期以来,作为社会主义市场经济的政治经济学含义的主要载体,经济民主的作用并不明显。出现这一现象的原因有二:在理论上,学界关于经济民主的论述强调生产关系视角而忽视生产方式视角。这样的把握方式导致经济民主体系处于悬置的状态;在现实中,将美国型市场经济视为唯一的参照系导致具有后福特主义色彩的经济民主无法进入政策议程。本文认为,以生产方式视角下的经济民主为中心,有选择、有秩序地推进经济民主是当下的现实选择。     

经济回调有望触底——2015年经济形势分析与展望

市场需求对年度经济增长具有决定作用。2015年,消费、出口、投资需求的增长态势预计趋稳,据此可以判断经济增速回调基本触底;但是经济转型升级的任务空前繁重;因此,必须把稳增长与推进经济转型升级紧密结合起来,通过不断改善发展环境、提高微观基础和经济结构对环境变化的适应能力,加快培育和巩固经济增长的新常态。     

海峡西岸经济区旅游业发展空间差异与协调发展机制研究

区域旅游资源禀赋导致了旅游业发展水平差异。海峡西岸经济区涉及城市群众多,空间发展差异明显,这一定程度上影响了区域旅游业以及区域经济一体化进程。区域经济发展差异与协调理论是研究海峡西岸经济区旅游业发展的重要理论基础,能够指导海峡西岸经济区旅游业协调发展。     

Central Bank transparency in theory and practice

We study the effects of Central Bank transparency on inflation and the output gap. Our intention is to illustrate, with the help of a small analytical model, how an imperfectly transparent Central Bank affects the two main macroeconomic variables, inflation and the output gap. The model tells us that transparency affects the variability of inflation and output but not their average levels. Then we examine the extent to which this conjecture is justified by the index of transparency constructed by Eijffinger and Geraats. Given the limitations of such indices, we only examine the correlations between the index of transparency and the macro variables in question. This analysis shows that the average magnitudes are not affected by transparency but their variability is. In the case of inflation, its variability benefits from the reduction of transparency and about 50% is explained by the variability in the transparency index. The effect on output volatility on the other hand is less clear, and in any case transparency seems to increase it rather than decrease it.     

Distinguishing characteristics of the Martiniquan economy and constraints on modelling

The decentralization law confers on local elected representatives powers in the fields of economic, social and cultural development. For this purpose we have constructed a large-scale macroeconometric model for Martinique. The purpose of this article is to present the model and discuss its capacity. To begin with we shall set out its general structure. We shall then describe the relationships that have been selected for solving the model. Finally we shall examine the power of the model, first of all in retrospective simulations and then from the point of view of economic policy. The variants selected are: a demand policy, a supply policy and a policy aimed at bringing the Martiniquan minimum wage up to the level of the metropolitan wage.     

A Theoretical Basis for the Consideration of Spending Thresholds in the Analysis of Fiscal Referendums

This paper concerns the political economy of budget balances and focuses on fiscal referendums. It specifically suggests – on the basis of theoretical arguments –that any analysis of fiscal referendums must take their spending thresholds into account. Thus, it claims that mandatory fiscal referendums can impose greater constraints than optional fiscal referendums. In conclusion, various recommendations based on this observation are proposed.JEL classification: D70, H72.     

创新发展中国特色社会主义政治经济学需处理好十个方面的关系

中国特色社会主义政治经济学是当代中国经济学的理论基础,是理论经济学与应用经济学相关学科的\"硬核\"部分.创新发展中国特色社会主义政治经济学需要处理好若干重要的关系,例如价值理性与工具理性的关系、马克思主义政治经济学原理与中国特色社会主义实践的关系、马克思主义政治经济学原理与中国特色社会主义政治经济学的关系、文本研究与实证...     

国内区域协调发展状况定量评价研究综述

通过对国内区域协调发展定量研究的相关论文进行梳理,本文认为相关研究遵循指标选择-模型设定-权重设定的研究范式.在此框架下,本文对学者针对区域协调发展在概念理解、研究目标、方法设计及情境选择等方面的研究进行对照和总结,指出国内学者针对该主题的研究呈现出较强的演化特征,研究维度向多维化、深入化演进,研究指标向全面化、综合化演进,研究方法向客观化、科学化演进.同时本文还认为对区域协调发展状况的定量研究尚存在一定的难点,主要表现在:缺少对模型效度的检验;定量评价过多注重方法,忽略方法为区域建设服务的理念;数据采集的困难导致模型为数据服务,从而对真实情况反映不完整.在此基础上,本文最后提出了未来的研究方向.     

The Euro and Internal Economic Policy Coordination

This paper reviews, mainly from an institutional angle, the objectives, forms, scope, levels, implementation and challenges involved for internal economic policy coordination after the introduction of the euro on 1 January 1999. In particular, it identifies six different aspects of coordination (procedures, exchange of information, analytical framework, monitoring, policy interactions and joint determination of policies) and analyses the rationale for coordination in eight different policy areas. After presenting some of the challenges lying ahead, the paper concludes that although an appropriate institutional framework seems in place, it still has to undergo its baptism of fire.     

空间经济学视角下“经济引力”模型的构建与运用——以2010年长三角地区经济数据为例

近年来,空间经济学家在空间经济一体化发展领域不断放松假设条件和探索新的研究方法的基础上,进行了大量的经验验证和实证研究,得出了许多有益的结论,同时也富含许多政策含义,但是大多只是采用数值模拟的方式得出结论。本文尝试利用引力模型结构,通过对经济质量和经济距离内涵的界定,构建一个基于空间经济视角下的经济引力模型。同时,本文以长三角经济圈的中心城市上海为重心,运用该模型对长三角部分城市的经济引力进行定量测度,为各城市的经济协同发展提供一种新的分析视角,同时也为长三角地区经济一体化发展提供有益的政策建议。