Critical remarks on Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-first Century

This article discusses the central macroeconomic claims that are made in Thomas Piketty’s book Capital in the Twenty-first Century. The article aims to show that Piketty’s contentions are not only logically flawed but also contradicted by his own data.     

Piketty’s Elasticity of Substitution: A Critique

This article examines Thomas Piketty’s explanation of a falling wage share. Piketty explains rising income inequality between labor and capital as a result of one parameter of a production function: an elasticity of substitution, σ, between labor and capital greater than one. This article reviews Piketty’s elasticity argument, which relies on a non-standard definition of capital. In light of the theory of land rent, it discusses why the non-standard capital definition is a measure of wealth, not capital and is problematic for estimating elasticities. It then presents simple long-run estimates of σ in constant elasticity of substitution functions for Piketty’s data as well as for a subset of his capital measure that comes closer to the standard definition of productive capital. The estimation results cast doubt on Piketty’s hypothesis that σ is greater than one.     

Say’s Law,Marxian Crisis Theory and the Interconnectedness of the Capitalist Economy

ABSTRACT

Scholars have long debated exactly why Marx felt that general gluts were not just possible, but inevitable. This article argues that Theories of Surplus Value anchored that necessity in the complex interconnectedness that characterizes capitalist production. There, Marx’s criticism of Say’s Law builds on a version of crisis theory that begins with raw material shortages in a leading sector. The disturbance is then transmitted through the many inter-industry linkages in the capitalist economy. What starts as a supply-side shock in a leading sector is transformed into a broad crisis of aggregate demand as workers are laid off and businesses fall into insolvency. This article argues that Marx’s later discussion of other types of crises in Capital can be read as consistent with this approach. A severe profit squeeze in a leading sector (whether originating in intermediate good prices, market demand, rising wages or rising use of fixed capital) necessarily turns into a general glut. In this context, Say’s Law becomes an irrelevant theorem concerning an imaginary economy. What Marx sees as fundamentally new under capitalism is not the use of money and the separation of sale and purchase, but massive interconnectedness.     

Collective Action,Marx’s Class Theory,and the Union Movement

Research on establishment size-wage effects has consistently shown a positive relationship between the number of employees and workers' wages. While several theories have been offered to explain these outcomes, the use of data with limited employer characteristics make for a dubious connection between theory and results. This study examines the firm size-wage effect using a dataset that captures typical worker demographics, but also contains employer information not typically captured in larger datasets. The results provide strong evidence that these wage effects are the result of several forces, including worker sorting/matching, efficiency wages, internal labor markets, and, to a lesser degree, working conditions.     

Learning Direction Theory and the Winner’s Curse

We report an experiment on a decision task by Samuelson and Bazerman (1985). Subjects submit a bid for an item with an unknown value. A winners curse phenomenon arises when subjects bid too high and make losses. Learning direction theory can account for this. However, other influences on behaviour can also be identified. We introduce impulse balance theory to make quantitative predictions on the basis of learning direction theory. We also look at monotonic ladder processes. It is shown that for this kind of Markov chains the impulse balance point is connected to the mode of the stationary distribution.     

Uncertainty and the Value of Capital: Marginal Efficiency and the ‘Conventional Projection’

Keynes provided not one but two formulae for calculating the relationship between the Present and the Future. On the one hand we have the well-known Marginal Efficiency of Capital (MEC), where the value of the present stock equals the discounted sum of future earnings, but on the other we have the Conventional Projection (CP) where the expected earnings in the future reflect the productivity of present facilities. The MEC is likely to reflect the views of fund managers, the CP the views of corporate managers. These two sets of judgments of the future may coincide or diverge. Either way they determine the value of the present capital in terms of claims to it—and this determination may be stable or unstable, but in any case will be volatile in the sense that the underlying uncertainty can lead to rapid shifts. By contrast, the Classical Equations will give us the value of present capital in terms of its replacement or real cost. This is reliable, being based on the real side of the economy. The ratio of this to the uncertain and volatile MEC/CP financial calculation is analogous to Tobin's Q, and will play a role in determining investment decisions, but it chiefly gives us insight into how volatile those must be.     

The limits of rocket science: A critical review of David Warsh’s Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations

David Warsh presents a history of the development of contemporary neoclassical economics, packaged as a heroic tale of mathematical economists struggling to expand the boundaries of human understanding by injecting ever-more-complex mathematics into economic analysis. Unfortunately, the heroic tale ends up undermining the history and vice versa.     

How Fat is the Top Tail of the Wealth Distribution?

Differential unit non‐response in household wealth surveys biases estimates of top tail wealth shares downward. Using Monte Carlo evidence, I show that adding only a few extreme observations to wealth surveys is sufficient to remove the downward bias. Combining extreme wealth observations from Forbes World's billionaires with the Survey of Consumer Finances, the Wealth and Assets Survey, and the Household Finance and Consumption Survey, I provide new improved estimates of top tail wealth in the United States, the United Kingdom, and nine euro area countries. These new estimates indicate significantly higher top wealth shares than those calculated from the wealth surveys alone.     

Emil Lederer’s Theory of Economic Fluctuations and the Role of Financial Institutions

Abstract

Emil Lederer was characterized as the “leading academic socialist of Germany in the 1920’s” by Joseph Schumpeter and was a highly respected economist of his time. However, most aspects of his work remain totally unexplored. This paper focuses on Emil Lederer’s theory of economic fluctuations defending the thesis that certain aspects of Lederer’s conceptualization of economic fluctuations underwent considerable modifications when his 1925 article Konjunktur und Krisen is compared with his 1938 book Technical Progress and Unemployment, a shift unacknowledged so far in the literature. In his first attempt to tackle the issue, in Konjunktur und Krisen (1925), Lederer had constructed an explanation consistent with the so-called “disproportionality theory” introduced by Tugan-Baranowsky (codified as “early Lederer”). However, Lederer’s conception of the business cycle during the 1930s and especially in his major work Technical Progress and Unemployment underwent considerable modifications. Lederer’s (1938 Lederer, E. 1938. Technical Progress and Unemployment, Geneva: King and Son.  [Google Scholar]) analysis is, apparently, very ‘Schumpeterian’ (codified as “late Lederer”). In this version of his theory, the cycle is explained by supply-side factors, and more specifically by technical change. Additionally, Lederer’s view on the role of financial institutions (credit and banks) with regards to business cycles is analysed. Lederer avoided attributing a causative role to monetary factors. The interrelation between ‘real’ factors and financial institutions constitutes an essential element in his analysis of the business cycle.     

The Implications of Rybczynski’s Theorem for Government Spending,Learning by Doing,and Labor Mobility

The evolution of a small open economy or region with labor mobility and dynamic scale economies in the high-tech sector is analyzed using the neoclassical 2×2-model. Government services are inputs to private production and influence specialization according to Rybczynskis theorem. This effect is reinforced by dynamic scale economies. Empirically observed differences in regional development and specialization are explained by diverging government policies and/or history-dependent factors. Despite of diverging wage rates, diversified regions and regions specialized in low-tech production may coexist with a common level of per capita incomes.     

Integrating Schumpeter and Keynes: Hyman Minsky’s Theory of Capitalist Development

Taking the idea that institutional reproduction is not obvious and that institutions are vulnerable has significant conceptual implications. Institutional vulnerability can arise through communication between actors in a common language. To apprehend this requires an elaboration of John Searle's (1995, 2005) argument that language is the fundamental institution. Ontologically, language delineates and circumscribes a community. A community cannot function without a common language, and language at the same time constitutes a community's boundaries, allowing for focused and effective communication within a community. Communication through language introduces ambiguity as well, however, and so institutional reproduction, mediated by language, is a deeply contentious process. Communication across boundaries may particularly "irritate" a system, as Niklas Luhmann has argued. How can institutions then be re-identified through change? Searle's general form for institutions is in need of elaboration. We develop arguments by drawing upon Luhmann's (1995) systems analysis and notion of communication.     

Consequences of the IPPC’s BAT Requirements for Emissions and Abatement Costs: A DEA Analysis on Norwegian Data

The Integrated Pollution and Prevention Control (IPPC) directive from the European Union implies that regulatory emission caps shall be set in accordance with each industry’s Best Available Techniques (BAT). The directive, which represents a harmonization of environmental regulations towards a BAT principle, is currently being implemented in all the EU member states and the states associated with the European Economic Area. The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of this implementation on emission reductions and costs, using data from Norwegian manufacturing industries. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to construct a frontier of all efficient installations. The frontier is based on all installations within an industry that use the Best Practice Technique (BPT). We estimate the changes in emissions due to the implementation of IPPC as the difference between an installation’s actual emissions and the emissions that would occur if it operated on the frontier. The method reveals a strong potential for emission reductions. Further, estimates of short-run abatement costs indicate that considerable emission reductions can be achieved with low or no costs, but that the implementation of a strict BAT principle for all installations involves substantial costs. To the extent that the abatement costs of an installation would be excessive, IPPC includes some limited modifications of the strict BAT principle. It seems important that these modifications are fully utilized by authorities to achieve the most cost efficient implementation of the directive.      

Access to infrastructure and women’s time allocation: Implications for growth and gender equality

Improved access to infrastructure is commonly viewed as a critical step to increase women’s labor force participation and promote economic growth in developing countries. This positive relationship is first established in a basic gender-based, overlapping generations model with collective households and congestion costs. The model is then extended to account for endogenous gender bias in the market place and women’s bargaining power, as well as fertility choices and rearing time. Numerical experiments, based on a calibrated version of the extended model, show that increased access to infrastructure may induce women to devote more time to child rearing – in line with the model’s predictions and some of the empirical evidence – thereby mitigating the increase in time allocated to market work. As a result, it may weaken the benefits of increased female labor force participation in terms of reduced gender bias in the market place, improved women’s bargaining power in the family, and higher growth rates in the long run.     

A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Capital Controls: Spain, 1986–1990 *

This Paper offers a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of capital controls in Spain during the period 1986-1990. The analysis is based on a portfolio-balance model Previously estimated for the Spanish economy, where the complete elimination of capital controls is simulated. Our results suggest that capital controls would have avoided a net capital outflow amounting to nearly a 4 per cent increase in the Spanish net foreign asset position, as a quarterly average, during the first five years of Spanish membership into the EU. [C32, F21, F36]     

ITQs,Firm Dynamics and Wealth Distribution: Does Full Tradability Increase Inequality?

Concerns over the re-distributive effects of individual transferable quotas (ITQ’s) have led to restrictions on their tradability. We consider a general equilibrium model with firm dynamics to evaluate the redistributive impact of changing the tradability of ITQs. A change in tradability would happen, for example, if permits are allowed to be traded as a separate asset from ownership of an active firm. If the property right is associated with ownership of an active firm, the permit can be leased in each period but it is not possible to exit the industry and keep the right. However, allowing the permits to be traded as a separate asset has two effects. First, it leads to a greater concentration of production in the industry. Second, it directly converts a non-tradable asset into a tradable one, and this is equivalent to giving a lump sum transfer to all firms. The first effect implies a concentration in revenues, while the second implies a redistribution of wealth. We calibrate our model to match the observed increase in revenue inequality in the Northeast Multispecies (Groundfish) U.S. Fishery. We show that although observed revenue inequality—measured by the Gini coefficient—increases by 12 %, wealth inequality is reduced by 40 %.