货币时间价值在投资决策中的应用

货币时间价值的客观存在不仅在理论界得到了公认,而且其产生的作用时刻影响着人们的日常经济生活。不管是企业的项目投资,还是个人的理财投资,都不可忽视货币时间价值。在进行方案抉择的时候,要优先选用包含货币时间价值的动态指标(净现值、获利指数和内涵报酬率)进行评价,选择最优方案,做出科学的投资决策。企业和个人要牢固树立货币时间价值观念,利用它为企业和个人决策服务,促进企业和个人合理利用有限资金,创造更高的效益。     

项目经济评价中NPV和IRR的风险传递关系研究

在项目的经济评价中,净现值（NPV）和内部收益率（IRR）是主要的两个指标,当用概率形式表示项目经济受到的风险时,如何给出NPV和IRR两者之间的风险传递关系是一个难题。本文通过研究NPV和折现率之间的函数单调性关系,得出NPV和IRR之间的风险概率传递解析关系,由此可以根据NPV的概率得到相应的IRR概率分布曲线。该方法能够提供更为全面的且更符合客观实际情况的经济评价决策信息,使项目经济评价更具科学性。     

利率市场化过程中我国基准利率的选择与培育

同业拆借利率作为基准利率是比较现实的选择,而再贴现率无法充当基准利率,目前国债利率也不宜选作基准利率。要完全实现市场化,还必须进一步完善金融市场。     

The Impact of Choice Inconsistencies in Stated Choice Studies

A new test procedure revealing mutuallyinconsistent choices has been developed andapplied to Stated Choice data. Our analysisshows that inconsistent choices commonly occurin several Stated Choice tasks. An applicationof the test to the Norwegian Value of Timestudy data shows that failing to excludeinconsistent choices resulted in asubstantially higher Value of time. Theinconsistent choices were made by less educatedparticipants. As the tasks were undertaken inthe easy context of choosing travelalternatives with three attributes,practitioners of more complex and cognitivedemanding designs should be particularilyconcerned with these results.     

技术选择、技术扩散与经济收敛

Lin(1994,1996a,b,1999,2001)的技术选择假说认为一个国家的经济结构是由其要素禀赋结构内生决定的.一个发展中国家政府所采取的发展战略如背离了最优的技术选择将影响该国的经济增长速度及是否能够向发达国家的收入水平收敛.本文构建了一个增长函数,除技术选择外,还同时考虑地理位置、政府质量等因素在长期内对各国全要素生产率(TFP)的影响.我们用跨国数据对该模型进行估计,检验影响长期TFP差异的各种假说,结果支持Lin的技术选择假说、Sachs et al.(1995,1999)的地理位置假说,但结果未支持政府质量假说.     

中国资本账户开放、利率市场化和汇率制度弹性化

开放经济下,资本流动、利率和汇率三者相互联动、相互协调、自动平衡。利率市场化是资本账户开放和汇率制度弹性化的前提条件;资本控制程度影响利率市场化和汇率制度弹性化;利率和汇率相互作用、相互传导。一国宏观经济调控政策的效果不仅仅取决于资本控制程度和利率或汇率水平的变动,更取决于资本控制、利率和汇率三者的联动效应。中国金融自由化改革进程中,必须正确处理好资本账户开放、利率市场化和汇率制度弹性化之间的关系,发挥三者联动协同效应,实现内外均衡。     

Intertemporal Choice,Saving and Investment,and Interest Rate: Contributions from a Neglected Hayekian Model

Hayek’s ‘Utility analysis and interest’ expounds a graphical model of intertemporal choice that has not received the attention it deserves. This model is important in that it can be used as a basic macroeconomic model and can therefore perform for the Austrian School the role that the Solow model plays for the standard neo-classical paradigm. This article provides an in-depth presentation of the Hayekian model, and then applies the model to key theoretical issues in macroeconomics; namely, the effects upon intertemporal equilibrium and upon the interest rate of a change in time preference, of the implementation of a technical development and of an increase in the supply of labor.     

ICT and Growth: The Role of Rates of Return and Capital Prices

We revisit the widely discussed contribution of investment in ICT to economic growth, focusing on differences in productivity and quality of ICT across countries and time. In a growth accounting approach, we look at the way rates of return and rates of asset price decline measure these aspects. Conducting a sensitivity analysis with data from the EU KLEMS database for the years 1990–2007, we introduce a constant rate of return and a constant rate of ICT price decline. Both alternative measurements somewhat downplay the role investment played relative to growth in multifactor productivity in the U.K. and the U.S. during 1995–2000. Moreover, we show that more than half of the ICT contribution to labor productivity growth results from changes in capital quality and composition rather than from quantity.     

农业产业化经营中利益相关者关系、目标选择与实现方式

本文指出,农业产业化经营的利益相关者是农业价值创造和价值实现的重要影响因素,正确处理好利益相关者关系,有利于保障和提升农业利益,有利于农业价值创造与农业价值实现,这包括农户与龙头企业、政府、中介组织、合作经济组织以及龙头企业与协会之间的关系。农业产业化经营要以产业运作过程商品化、利益分配合理化等方式,实现农业价值创造最大化和农业价值分配最优化的农业产业化目标。     

EVA管理评价体系的优势与不足

EVA是一个比较新的管理评价指标,它有其他传统指标无法比拟的优势所在:可以真实反映企业的经营业绩;尽量剔除会计失真的影响;从股东角度定义企业利润;将股东财富与企业决策联系在一起;有利于企业内部财务管理体系的协调和统一等,当然它也有不容忽视的缺点:在部门间或企业间存在规模差异时失去决断力;导致经理的短期行为;无法解释企业内在的成长性机会等。所以,我们必须对它有一个比较清醒的认识,以求在实践中更好的改进、提高与应用它。     

Rate of return on venture capital investment in China

The rate of return on venture capital investment of venture capital (VC) firms in China has been attracting increasing attention. We use robust multinomial regression models to analyze 56 exit projects of venture capital investment from 1999 to 2003 in China. The results show that the returns of state-owned VC firms are lower than those of non state-owned VC firms. Furthermore, the returns of the VC firms located in Shanghai and Shenzhen are higher than those in other regions. The capital scale of VC firms is negatively correlated with the rate of return. In addition, some variables, such as business duration, investment scale, investment duration and exit vehicle, are probably unrelated to rate of return on venture capital investment in China.     

村庄重构中的社会资本情境与个体选择行为分析

从传统向现代的转型过程中,传统社会资本的逐渐消解与现代社会资本的不完全成长构成了当前中国农村社会资本的结构断裂性情境。由于受到社会资本的情境性限制,村民在村庄重构过程中的个体选择行为表现为一种经济理性与从众心理相结合的非理性选择,导致作为主体的农民在村庄重构中集体失语。培育农村现代社会资本成为解决当前村庄重构中农民利益保护的重要途径,也是社会资本对自身情境性限制的工具性超越。     

产业信息化与我国产业政策选择

产业信息化的主体是企业,只有企业高度信息化,产业信息化才有坚实的基础。针对我国产业信息化现状和存在的问题,提出了相应的政策建议,以减少产业成本,加快产业成长步伐。     

Access Regime Design and Required Rates of Return: Pitfalls in Adjusting for Inflation and Tax Effects*

Some access pricing regimes derive allowable cash flows to provide investors with an expectation of receiving a required real pre-(company) tax rate of return, with compensation for inflation built in via the allowable return of capital (depreciation). The required real pre-tax return is derived from nominal (or real) post-tax required returns. Techniques commonly used to transform post-tax into real pre-tax returns are biased, because they fail to capture accurately the characteristics of tax depreciation allowances. There is no general solution to this “transformation problem”, but alternative approaches can achieve the benefits prompting the use of a “real pre-tax” approach without suffering from this problem *I am grateful to the referee for valuable comments.     

论利率市场化下的利率互换功能与风险

随着一系列利率改革措施的颁布实施，我国利率市场化进程正在加速。我国已初步建立市场利率形成机制和市场利率体系。利率市场化催生利率互换，利率互换有利于规避利率风险、降低融资成本、资产负债管理和完善利率定价机制。但是，利率互换存在法律和政策风险、基础协议的效力风险、履约风险以及利率本身的风险。     

风险投资与券商联盟对创业板上市公司IPO 首发折价率的影响研究

风险投资(VC )与政府、银行、券商和同业之间有着重要关联,且这些关联关系构成了其重要的社会资本,使其能够发挥增值的作用,而 VC 与券商的关系值得重点关注。文章对创业板市场上 I PO 公司背后的风险投资与 I PO 公司聘请的保荐机构之间的合作次数进行统计,将存在2次及以上合作的界定为联盟关系,并将新股首日折价率分解成一级市场的“内在折价率”和二级市场的“市场反应率”,进而研究了VC 与承销券商之间的联盟关系是否对VC 参股公司在 I PO 定价效率上产生了影响。研究发现：相比于其他有VC 持股但与券商无多次合作关系的公司以及无VC 持股的公司,存在“VC 与券商联盟”关系的公司的 I PO 发行价格更接近于公司的内在价值,表现为内在折价率最低;且该类公司在上市首日具有更高的市场价格,表现为市场反应率最高。这说明风险投资兼具认证效应和市场力量,并且这两种作用可能都来自于VC 与券商的长期而稳定的联盟关系。文章的结论对创业板市场上的各方参与者都具有借鉴意义。     

论现代道德选择能力培育及其路径选择

随着社会发展、国际间交往的日趋频繁,人们的道德观念正在发生广泛、持久、深刻的变化,在当前的社会条件下,培育人的道德选择能力,特别是合理道德行为选择能力的培育,已成为道德教育亟待解决的问题。在现代社会,道德选择能力培育必须回归社会生活世界,使其内容、过程和目的生活化。     

利率作用不对称性对投资的影响研究

1996年后我国经济经历了通缩、通胀和两者共存的发展阶段,央行在货币政策工具的运用上开始逐渐重视利率的调控作用,曾在7年内7次下调贷款利率,2004年后随着经济的复苏和通胀压力的增大,我国再次进入加息周期。利率的历次变动是否发挥了货币政策对各经济变量传导功能是市场普遍关注的问题。运用1996～2007年的季度数据,在分别考察了利率下调及上升基础上,对我国资产投资的利率弹性做出定量分析,并在投资总量持续增长的条件下对投资同比增长率和利率变动的相关性进行了检验。     

教育收益率性别差异的实证分析

很多研究均发现女性的教育收益率显著高于男性。利用广西的调查数据,发现中国的教育收益率存在性别差异,女性的中等教育收益率高于男性,男性的高等教育收益率高于女性。进一步的分析表明,工资的性别歧视、就业的性别歧视以及中等教育效益的性别差异是导致中国教育收益率存在以上性别差异的主要原因。     

The Choice of Technology and Equilibrium Wage Rigidity

In this general equilibrium model, firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose increasing returns technologies to maximize profits. Capital and labor are the two factors of production. The existence of efficiency wages leads to unemployment. The model is able to explain some interesting observations of the labor market. First, even though there is neither long-term labor contract nor costs of wage adjustment, wage rigidity is an equilibrium phenomenon: an increase in the exogenous job separation rate, the size of the population, the cost of exerting effort, and the probability that shirking is detected will not change the equilibrium wage rate. Second, the equilibrium wage rate increases with the level of capital stock. Third, a higher level of capital stock does not necessarily reduce the unemployment rate. That is, there is no monotonic relationship between capital accumulation and the unemployment rate.