An analysis of factors improving technology roadmap credibility: A communications theory assessment of roadmapping processes

In recent years, many industrial firms have been able to use roadmapping as an effective process methodology for projecting future technology and for coordinating technology planning and strategy. Firms potentially realize a number of benefits in deploying technology roadmapping (TRM) processes. Roadmaps provide information identifying which new technologies will meet firms' future product demands, allowing companies to leverage R&D investments through choosing appropriately out of a range of alternative technologies. Moreover, the roadmapping process serves an important communication tool helping to bring about consensus among roadmap developers, as well as between participants brought in during the development process, who may communicate their understanding of shared corporate goals through the roadmap. However, there are few conceptual accounts or case studies have made the argument that roadmapping processes may be used effectively as communication tools. This paper, therefore, seeks to elaborate a theoretical foundation for identifying the factors that must be considered in setting up a roadmap and for analyzing the effect of these factors on technology roadmap credibility as perceived by its users. Based on the survey results of 120 different R&D units, this empirical study found that firms need to explore further how they can enable frequent interactions between the TRM development team and TRM participants. A high level of interaction will improve the credibility of a TRM, with communication channels selected by the organization also positively affecting TRM credibility.     

An architectural framework for roadmapping: Towards visual strategy

Since the first application of technology roadmapping in the late 1970s to support integrated product-technology planning, roadmapping concepts and techniques have been widely adopted at product, technology, company, sector and policy levels. The roadmapping approach is flexible and scalable, and can be customized to suit many different strategic and innovation contexts. However, this demands careful planning and design, including consideration of roadmap structure, process and participation.This paper explores the issues of how to design and architect roadmaps and roadmapping processes, which is crucial if the approach is to provide a framework for supporting effective dialogue and communication within and between organizations. The structure of the roadmap, and the process for developing and maintaining the roadmap, should be designed to serve the purpose for which the activity is intended to satisfy, providing a ‘common language and structure' for both development and deployment of strategy.     

基于多因素的产品平台衍生模型研究

在探讨区域创新系统（RIS）时,不得不首先面对一个现实而又极其重要的问题——RIS中的区域边界问题。正确认识和理解其边界及其与行政边界之间的关系,对于我们针对具体行政区域及其中心城市建立可行的RIS十分重要。从分析RIS的由来及内涵出发,从RIS的系统运行机制、运行目的以及运行过程来考察,发现RIS的区域边界应该与行政边界等同。通过进一步的分析,得出了RIS是一个开放系统,区域边界不应成为限制各要素流动的障碍。最后,提出构建RIS时既要强调地方政府的职责,同时也要强调区域间的分工与合作。     

Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules

Recently, technology roadmap has received increasing interest from academics and practitioners alike, as it is a powerful and inherently flexible approach in terms of architectural structure and construction process. However, the potential benefit may not be fully exploited due to the difficulty in customizing roadmaps to fit specific needs and/or to accommodate unusual circumstances. In response, the main purpose of this research is to provide guidance for customizing roadmaps. Specifically, we adopt a modularization method for mass customization and suggest a set of different roadmaps for different purposes such as forecasting, planning, and administration. In addition, a web-based system is developed to facilitate the roadmapping activities, which in turn ensures the creation, dissemination, and upkeep of roadmaps. With the system having a customization function, a set of customized roadmaps can be generated simply by selecting the application purpose and then meeting the input requirements. The function helps prospective users design roadmap formats and contents.     

Structuring technological information for technology roadmapping: data mining approach

Most research on technology roadmapping has focused on its practical applications and the development of methods to enhance its operational process. Thus, despite a demand for well-supported, systematic information, little attention has been paid to how/which information can be utilised in technology roadmapping. Therefore, this paper aims at proposing a methodology to structure technological information in order to facilitate the process. To this end, eight methods are suggested to provide useful information for technology roadmapping: summary, information extraction, clustering, mapping, navigation, linking, indicators and comparison. This research identifies the characteristics of significant data that can potentially be used in roadmapping, and presents an approach to extracting important information from such raw data through various data mining techniques including text mining, multi-dimensional scaling and K-means clustering. In addition, this paper explains how this approach can be applied in each step of roadmapping. The proposed approach is applied to develop a roadmap of radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology to illustrate the process practically.     

Automated feature extraction from social media for systematic lead user identification

Manufacturers strive to rapidly develop novel products and offer solutions that meet the emerging customer needs. The Lead User Method, emerging from studies on sources of innovation by the scientific community, offers a validated approach to identify users with innovation ideas to support rapid and successful new product development process. The approach has been more recently applied on online communities, where collection and analysis of rich user data are performed by expert practitioners. In this paper, feature extraction techniques are outlined, that enable automated classification and identification of lead users that are present in online communities. The authors describe two case studies to construct a classification model that is then used to identify online lead users for confectionery products, and to evaluate the outlined feature extraction techniques. The presented research points to opportunities in automated identification within the lead user approach that further reduce the resource and time costs.     

Tracking technology trajectory through regression modelling: a retrospective techno-analysis

A significant number of studies have been conducted to forecast the expanding market and evaluate new generation smartphone technologies. However, no such study has been witnessed so far that could forecast the release time of these technologies. The purpose of the paper is to test the forecasting capabilities of stepwise regression in forecasting the smartphones commercialisation time. This technique predicts the release time of smartphones released in 2006 (belonging to the second generation of smartphones) and 2007 (belonging to the third generation of smartphones). The stepwise regression approach based on 12 year data set from 1994 to 2005 determines whether it provides a superior fitting and forecasting performance. The validation approach applied for the first- and second-generation smartphones will benefit future researchers and practitioners in understanding that a regression model developed on the basis of one generation may not give accurate results for the next generation, owing to the fact that technological developments are multi-folded.     

Integrating technology roadmapping and portfolio management at the front-end of new product development

Many authors point out that the front-end of new product development (NPD) is a critical success factor in the NPD process and that numerous companies face difficulties in carrying it out appropriately. Therefore, it is important to develop new theories and proposals that support the effective implementation of this earliest phase of NPD. This paper presents a new method to support the development of front-end activities based on integrating technology roadmapping (TRM) and project portfolio management (PPM). This new method, called the ITP Method, was implemented at a small Brazilian high-tech company in the nanotechnology industry to explore the integration proposal. The case study demonstrated that the ITP Method provides a systematic procedure for the fuzzy front-end and integrates innovation perspectives into a single roadmap, which allows for a better alignment of business efforts and communication of product innovation goals. Furthermore, the results indicated that the method may also improve quality, functional integration and strategy alignment.     

技术路线图方法探索与实践应用研究

技术路线图作为一种预测和描绘新兴技术发展路径的工具,已被广泛应用于企业、产业、国家的技术发展规划中,以减少创新和规划过程中的不确定性。然而,目前技术路线图的研究和制定常以定性方法为主,过分依赖专家经验。在剖析技术路线图研究机理的基础上,将文献计量和专利分析引入技术路线图应用中,以减少技术路线图对专家经验的依赖。构建基于文献计量、专利分析和技术路线图的新兴技术产业未来发展分析框架,并以染料敏化太阳能光伏技术产业为例进行了实证研究,验证了该分析框架的可行性和有效性。     

Narrowing the gender digital divide in Pakistan: Mobile phone ownership and female labor force participation

The unprecedented growth in access to mobile phones and smartphones has opened up new possibilities in the way people live and work. However, women in developing countries are unable to take advantage of this growth due to certain factors and socio-cultural norms that give rise to the gender digital divide. In this study, using the nationally representative Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey (2019–2020), we investigate the gender and rural–urban (female) digital divide in a country with one of the most considerable digital divides. Furthermore, we employ an instrumental variable approach to study the effect of mobile or smartphone ownership on female labor force participation. The results indicate that institutional and sociocultural norms explain most of the ownership gap of mobile or smartphones between men and women. The instrumental variable approach demonstrates that mobile or smartphone ownership increases the participation of women in the labor force. We also find that the differences between observable characteristics, especially literacy and education, explain the rural–urban digital divide among females. Considering the importance of mobile or smartphone ownership in facilitating women's labor supply decisions, providing women with digital tools and upskilling them has wider implications for their economic well-being.     

To root or not to root? The economics of jailbreak

We construct a structural model that allows us to jointly estimate the demand for smartphones and paid apps using a Bayesian approach. Our data comes from more than 500 college students in Hong Kong and Shanghai. We find that the utility cost rather than the upfront monetary cost of jailbreaking smartphones determines its prevalence. Users mainly jailbreak smartphones to use paid apps for free, a reason more important among Android users than iPhone users. Paid apps contribute the lion’s share of the profits (between 66% and 59%) for both the Android and iPhone. Strictly prohibiting jailbreaking would decrease the aggregate market share of smartphones in the cell phone market. Apple, however, would sell even more iPhones at the expense of Android smartphones.     

Using a design structure matrix to support technology roadmapping for product–service systems

In light of the increasing trend of the use of the product–service system (PSS), tools that can help to analyse complex relationships among products, services and technologies and furthermore support decision-making during their planning are needed. To meet these needs, this study proposes a design structure matrix (DSM)-based technology roadmap (TRM) approach and a case study on mobile services is conducted. While PSS planning may involve a number of teams and organisations, the DSM-based TRM can help with such complex collaborative technology planning and hence lead to better performance. Methodologically, this is one of the first attempts to link DSM and TRM, both of which are widely used in planning stages, and thus is expected to contribute to the advances in TRM methodologies. In practice, this study describes an overall roadmapping process for the PSS, thus providing worthwhile guidelines available to organisations that are in charge of the TRM.     

Business planning based on technological capabilities: Patent analysis for technology-driven roadmapping

This research responds to the needs of technology-driven business by focusing on how firms can find new business opportunities based on their technological capabilities. It proposes a technology-driven roadmapping processes that starts from capability analysis for technology planning and ends with business opportunity analysis for market planning. We suggest the use of patent data as a proxy measure of technological capability for this purpose and develop four analysis modules — Monitoring, Collaboration, Diversification, and Benchmarking — to support decision-making during the process. Various analysis techniques such as text-mining, network analysis, citation analysis and index analysis are applied to discover meaningful implications from the patent data, which are summarized in four maps — Actor-similarity map, Actor-relations map, Technology-industry map, and Technology-affinity map. For the purpose of illustration, RFID-related patents are collected and the 18 firms with the most patents used, focusing especially on the third biggest. We believe using roadmapping and patent analysis together can play complementary roles for each other. Putting roadmapping techniques together with patent analysis can increase the objectivity and reliability of technology roadmap, while using patent analysis restricted to technological information together with roadmapping techniques can ensure that a more valuable breadth of strategic information is extracted from patents.     

Assessing and forecasting technology dynamics in smartphones: a TFDEA approach

Over the last 20 years, the smartphone technologies at the device level have undergone tremendous change. This paper puts forward a framework to characterise, assess and forecast the smartphone technologies at the device level. The study assesses and forecasts the technological advancement observed in smartphones using technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis with an objective to evaluate the technological rate of change in the device. A quarterly data set comprising 31 quarters from 2007 to 2014 was analysed for smartphone releases in a particular price range. For the validation purpose, the analysis was designed to set the point of forecasting somewhere in 2012 using the data set between 2007 and 2012, so as to forecast the technologies thereon till 2014. The results indicate that the rate of technological change in smartphones is accelerating.     

产品创新中用户参与的动力机制研究

用户参与是企业创新理论中一个非常重要的研究领域,在产品创新过程中,用户作为价值创造者的作用已经受到学者和企业家的重视。用户参与产品创新,可以为企业带来更多的收益和市场机会。分析了用户参与企业产品创新的外部和内部动力。体验经济时代的到来、互联网技术的兴起和市场竞争的不断加剧是企业吸纳用户参与产品创新的外部动力,提高企业产品创新的绩效和获取企业产品创新的市场竞争优势是企业吸纳用户参与的产品创新的外部动力,内外部动力的相互作用,使企业迫切需要引入用户资源。拓展了对于理解用户在产品创新中的作用的视野,为企业有效利用用户资源提供了参考。     

用户参与企业产品创新的系统管理机制

用户参与是技术创新理论中一个非常重要的研究领域,在新产品开发过程中,用户作为价值创造者的作用已经受到学者和企业家的重视.用户参与产品创新,可以拓展企业创新源、为企业赢得持续竞争优势和提高新产品开发效率.如何有效地获取用户资源,将这一资源充分整合在新产品的开发过程中,且能够成功将产品推向市场,这是用户参与产品创新的关键.本文研究了如何系统管理用户参与新产品开发的过程,认为企业需要进行相应的组织安排和制度设计;需要构建用户参与产品创新的支持系统;需要控制用户参与新产品开发的过程.     

A hybrid visualisation model for technology roadmapping: bibliometrics,qualitative methodology and empirical study

Technology roadmapping offers a flexible instrument to portray development status in support of technology forecasting and assessment. This paper integrates bibliometrics with qualitative methodologies and visualisation techniques to construct a hybrid model for composing technology roadmaps. The mapping arrays details on the evolution of the technology under study and contributes to understanding the macro-technology development status. We generate a global technology roadmap for electric vehicles to demonstrate the approach in an empirical study.     

Moore's law and price trends of digital products: the case of smartphones

ABSTRACT

Since the introduction of the iPhone by Apple in 2007 and Google's Android platform in 2009, the two systems have accounted for a total of 90% of the U.S. smartphone market. Apple, however, reaps most of the profit in the industry. In the second quarter of 2016, for example, Apple's iPhone gets 104% of the sector's profit. This suggests that the smartphone market resembles a Stackelberg leadership model. Despite Apple's strong market power, we investigate if the market leader is under pressure to be price competitive. We calculate a quality-adjusted price index for smartphones from 2007 to 2016. Our results show that the average price declines at an average rate of over 27% per year. The price trend is similar to other digit products such as computers, cameras, and portable music players. We observe that the large price decline reflects the effect of Moore's law, which predicts that the capacity of integrated circuits undergoes an exponential growth. The effect of Moore's law is incorporated into the Stackelberg model. We also observe that price trends of other digital products also follow a similar pattern. This suggest that the long-run price trends of digital consumer goods are somewhat independent of the market structures.     

基于互联互通与用户归属行为的平台定价与福利分析

在互联网即时聊天平台市场中,平台之间不能互联的问题导致越来越多的用户同时加入多个竞争平台,即多归属,以提高使用的便利性。但这种多归属给用户带来不便。针对此问题,本文分别从平台无互联与用户单归属、平台无互联与用户多归属和平台互联三个方面探讨了平台互联互通与用户归属行为对平台企业的定价、利润与社会福利等问题的影响,并对相关现象进行了解释。本研究认为,在依靠市场力量难以推动互联网即时聊天平台间实现互联的情况下,应通过政府干预来推动平台互联。