Effects of Capital Income Taxes on Welfare in an Overlapping-generations Model

This paper describes the short-run and long-run effects of various capital income taxes on welfare using an overlapping-generations model according to the 'new view'. It is in the nature of a survey, because some of the results from seminal papers in this field can be achieved, under weaker assumptions. The paper reaches the paradoxical and intriguing conclusion that the distortionary effects of a dividend tax in the long run and of capital gains tax in the short run improve economic welfare, and exceed the income effects.
JEL Classification Numbers: G3, H2.     

Home Bias in US Beer Consumption

We apply the Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes market equilibrium model to data from 30 brands of beer sold in 12 US cities over 20 quarters (1988–1992) to estimate consumers' preference for beer characteristics as well as for their cultural regions of origin. Consumer heterogeneity is accounted for with respect to age and income. Overall, our data is comprised of 7200 beer brand observations and 13 920 hypothetical consumer observations. Empirical results indicate that there is, indeed, home bias with respect to foreign beers, although it varies with consumer age and income.     

Growth and Welfare Effects of Monetary Expansion in an Overlapping-generations Economy

This paper studies the relation between money supply and the long-run economic growth in the context of an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations. We present detailed analyses of growth and welfare effects of monetary expansion under alternative money supply rules. It is shown that, although monetary expansion has a growth-enhancing effect in the long run, in general it is not a Pareto-improving policy. We also pay much attention to the presence of multiple equilbria in endogenous money supply regimes.
JEL Classification Numbers: E51, E62, O42.     

The Home Bias in Equities and Distribution Costs

We show that incorporating distribution costs into a general equilibrium model of international portfolio choice helps to explain the home bias in international equity investment. Our model is able to replicate observed investment positions for a wide range of parameter values, even if agents have an incentive to hedge labor income risk by purchasing foreign equity. This is because the existence of a retail sector affects both the correlation of domestic returns with the domestic price level and the correlation between financial and non‐financial income.     

略论国际分散化投资中的“本国偏好之谜”

国际分散化投资可以增加均值—方差模型投资者的效用,在理论和经验上均得到了广泛支持,然而,该理论无法解释国际金融领域"本国偏好之谜",即一国投资者将绝大部分的资金投资在本国证券市场而忽略国外证券市场。通过交易成本、信息不对称、对冲需求分别对"本国偏好之谜"进行解释,仍无法取得合理及满意的答案。行为金融的发展给解释"本国偏好之谜"提供了一个新的视角。     

Home Bias in International Stock Return Expectations

Despite the advantages of international portfolio diversification, actual equity portfolio holdings reveal a strong bias towards domestic stocks. One hypothesis is that this bias can be explained by stock return expectations expressed in probability judgments. To test that hypothesis and to analyze the underlying effects that might cause distortions in investors' expectations, we conducted a cross country study in Germany and the U.S. comparing participants' judgments about an identical set of German and U.S. stocks.

Results show that both test groups feel more competent about domestic stocks. The asymmetric perception of competence is connected with an asymmetric assessment of probabilities. For both test groups subjective probability distributions of stock returns are significantly less dispersed and more optimistic for stocks associated with high competence levels than for stocks associated with low competence levels.     

Welfare Effects of Reducing Home Bias in Government Procurements: A Dynamic Contest Model

This paper models an international contest for government procurement as a dynamic game between a domestic firm and a foreign firm. We show that trade liberalization, in the form of a reduction in bias against the foreign firm, improves both domestic and global welfare if (i) either the foreign firm's profit is sufficiently large or (ii) the initial degree of home bias is sufficiently small. If the initial home bias is large, a small reduction in the bias may reduce welfare.     

Econometric Analyses of Home Bias in Government Procurement

The extent of discrimination in government procurement and its impact on economic efficiency has attracted both theoretical and analytical work, but little econometric evidence. We bridge this gap by building a new sector‐level dataset on domestic and foreign purchases by Japanese and Swiss governments over 1990–2003 to undertake “new” econometric analyses. Unlike previous work, we explain home‐bias using variables inspired by the political economy, trade‐macroeconomic and procurement literatures. We also provide “new” econometric evidence for previous theoretical predictions. Our results reveal the importance of domestic‐foreign productivity differences in governments’ cross‐border purchases and also support previous theoretical predictions. However, Membership of the World Trade Organizations's Agreement on Government Procurement is not found to increase market access.     

A Model of Economics Learning in the High Schools

The effectiveness of the Developmental Economic Education Project (DEEP) of the Joint Council of Economic Education (JCEE) and the International Paper Company Foundation (IPCF) awards program for teaching economics is evaluated in this article. The effects these programs have on achievement in economics (ACH), attitudes towards economics as a subject (ATE), and economic attitude sophistication (EAS) are observed. The authors' study shows that DEEP schools had a positive effect on students in these three areas. The results of the IPCF program are less encouraging with students actually showing less economic understanding as a consequence of being taught by an award winning teacher.     

Endogenous Home Bias in Portfolio Diversification and Firms’ Entry

The home bias in portfolios is considered a main puzzle in international macroeconomics. This paper provides a new benchmark for its analysis in a tractable new open economy macroeconomic model, where the home‐biased position is an optimal allocation. An equilibrium model of perfect risk‐sharing is specified, with endogenous portfolios and firm entry. Unlike in previous work, the international portfolio diversification is driven by home bias in capital goods—independently of home bias in consumption when countries are of equal size. The model explains the recent patterns of portfolio allocations in developed economies. Most important, optimal portfolio shares are independent of market dynamics.     

A Characterization of the Dynamical System in a Two-sector Overlapping-generations Model: The Case of Unbounded Growth

This paper characterizes perfect-foresight equilibria in a two-sector overlapping-generations economy for the case of unbounded growth. The analysis demonstrates that gross substitutability in consumption is not sufficient to ensure the determinacy of equilibrium. Unlike Boldrin and Rustichini (1994), indeterminacy of equilibria can arise within the framework of an overlapping-generations model with convex technology. The finite time horizon of agents is the source of such indeterminacy.
JEL Classification Number: 041.     

Exclusion Bias in Sample-Selection Model Estimators

Exclusion restrictions are routinely used in sample-selection models with "selection" and "outcome" equations. A false restriction, however, can cause an "exclusion bias" for the outcome equation estimator. In this paper, the specific form of the exclusion bias is derived for various sample-selection model estimators. Furthermore, it is shown that the outcome equation parameters for regressors with zero coefficients in the selection equation are immune to exclusion bias if only one regressor is excluded. Exclusion bias, or a lack thereof, is verified through a simulation study with the regressors taken from Mroz (1987).
JEL Classification Numbers: C24, C34     

高学历新员工多路径离职理论的实证研究

为探析中国高学历的新员工主动离职率高的原因,本文在阅读和评述了国内外大量离职模型后,选取Lee等员工主动离职多路径演进模型为研究基础,以浙江大学毕业1年内并且有过离职经历的毕业生作为研究对象,对该模型在中国背景下进行了实证检验。结果表明该模型在中国背景下同样适用;工作单位的性质对决策路径的选择有显著影响;不同路径展开速度不同,但工作满意度并无显著差异。并提出了对管理者有助益的建议。     

Risk Appetite,Home Bias and the Unstable Demand for Emerging Market Assets

Home bias arises when the actual portfolio of an investor consists of a smaller proportion of foreign assets than that predicted by standard portfolio theory for the observed set of risks and returns on available assets. The existence and persistence of home bias undermines the theoretical case for the efficiency of international capital markets. In this paper we use data on UK pension fund portfolios to measure home bias, and find that this is doubly acute in the case of emerging market equity—a bias against overseas assets as a whole being further magnified by a bias against emerging markets within the foreign equity class as a whole. Moreover, contrary to the conventional assumption that risk aversion is both relatively low and stable over time (canonised in neoclassical theory by the derivation of constant relative risk aversion from the utility function itself) our finding that home bias fluctuates over time suggests that risk aversion is in fact time‐variant and path‐dependent. We sketch an alternative Keynesian approach in conclusion.     

Optimal Growth with Endogenous Technical Progress: Hicksian Bias in a Macro Model

If productivity growth is endogenous, the question of whether to allocate some resources to increase the efficiency of capital needs to be examined in spite of the conventional wisdom that only Harrod-neutral technical progress is compatible with the steady state. This paper describes the crucial role that the production technology and research sectors play in determining the allocation of resources for accumulating physical capital and enhancing the productivity of inputs. We develop a model of biased growth, where, even in the steady state, the efficiency of capital and labour are increasing due to the allocation of resources to the research sector.
JEL Classification Numbers: C62, O31.     

A Learning Design for Reducing Hypothetical Bias in the Contingent Valuation Method

Over the last few years a great deal of research has focussed on hypothetical bias in value estimates obtained with the contingent valuation (CV) method and on means for ameliorating if not eliminating such bias. To date, efforts to eliminate hypothetical bias have relied on calibration techniques or on word-smithing of one kind or another to induce subjects to provide responses to hypothetical questions that mimic responses made by subjects facing actual payments in the valuation experiment. This paper introduces a different approach for eliminating hypothetical bias. A design for a CV survey format is presented which provides subjects with the opportunity to learn how the CV institution works. Sequential referenda are conducted where respondents gain experience in CV settings by participating in both hypothetical and real referenda. The logic of this Learning Design is a straightforward application of the trials process used in experimental economics. We demonstrate that the Learning Design is effective in eliminating hypothetical bias in surveys concerning donations to two different public goods.     

信息技术企业员工流失模型实证研究

针对中国当前信息技术企业人才流失率居高不下问题,本文建立了信息技术企业员工流失模型,并结合对深圳市数家中小型信息技术企业技术员工的调查分析,对该模型进行验证。最后指出:在管理实践中使用该模型定期对信息技术企业员工进行调查分析,可获取很多可能造戍人员流失的潜在影响因素信息,如果及时采取改善措施,可对技术员工的大规模流失“防范于未然”。     

知识型团队集体离职内外因模型构建

知识型团队的集体离职是企业面临的新挑战。因现有的离职模型难以诠释知识型团队集体离职的原因,通过回顾现有离职研究理论,采用定性分析法,从组织层面分析了知识型团队集体离职的内因和外因,设计了内因矩阵、外因矩阵和综合矩阵,最终构建了知识型团队集体离职内外因模型,为知识型团队集体离职的研究提供了新思路。     

信息传递模式、投资者心理偏差与股价“同涨同跌”现象

股价"同涨同跌"又称"股价同步性",是世界各国证券市场发展过程中的一种普遍现象,也是近年来财务学的研究热点和前沿课题。本文收集1994—2004年中国股市的相关数据,用R2度量股价同步性,对股票收益的"惯性"和"反转"与R2之间的关系进行系统的实证检验和理论分析。研究发现:(1)总体上,我国股市不存在"惯性"现象,而存在显著"反转"现象,并且反转效应随着R2的上升而逐渐减弱,两者呈负相关关系;(2)不同市场态势下惯性和反转的表现形式不同,且与R2的关系也不同:牛市阶段存在"反转"现象,且R2越高反转越明显;在熊市阶段存在"惯性"现象,且R2越小惯性越明显,说明不同市场态势下股价同步性的生成机理不同。对此,作者提出了一种基于信息与心理行为互动关系的新解释,丰富并完善了股价同步性形成机理的理论研究。     

Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices

We study adaptive learning in a monetary overlapping generations model with sticky prices and monopolistic competition for the case where learning agents observe current endogenous variables. Observability of current variables is essential for informational consistency of the learning setup with the model setup but generates multiple temporary equilibria when prices are flexible and prevents a straightforward construction of the learning dynamics. Sticky prices overcome this problem by avoiding simultaneity between prices and price expectations. Adaptive learning then robustly selects the determinate (monetary) steady state independent from the degree of imperfect competition. The indeterminate (non-monetary) steady state and non-stationary equilibria are never stable. Stability in a deterministic version of the model may differ because perfect foresight equilibria can be the limit of restricted perceptions equilibria of the stochastic economy with vanishing noise and thereby inherit different stability properties. This discontinuity at the zero variance of shocks suggests one should analyse learning in stochastic models.